Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Assigning Praise and Blame: Decoupling Epistemology and Decision Theory, published by adamShimi on January 27, 2023 on LessWrong.
Your group/company/organization performs well, doing great work and dealing with new problems efficiently. As one of its leaders, you want to understand why, so that you can make it even more successful, and maybe emulate this success in other settings.
Your group/company/organization performs badly, not delivering on what was promised and missing deadline after deadline. As one of its leaders, you want to understand why, so that you can correct its course, or at least not repeat the same mistakes in other settings.
Both cases apparently involve credit assignment: positive credit (praise) for success or negative credit (blame) for failure. And you can easily think of different ways to do so:
Heuristics for Credit Assignment
Baseline
The most straightforward approach starts with your initial prediction, and then assigns credit for deviations from it. So praise people who did better than expected and blame people who did worse than expected.
Then you remember Janice. She’s your star performer, amazing in everything she does, and you knew it from the start. So she performed according to prediction, being brilliant and reliable. Which means she doesn’t deserve any praise by this criterion.
On the other hand there is Tom. He’s quite good, but you also knew from the start he was a prickly showoff with an easily scratched ego. Still, he did his job, and when he acted like an asshole, that was within the prediction. So he doesn't deserve any blame by this criterion.
Incentive wise, this sounds like a terrible idea. If you push this credit assignment strategy, not only will you neglect the value of Janice and the cost of Tom, but you will probably drive away high-performers and attract problem-makers.
Bottleneck
Instead of starting from a baseline, let’s focus on the key bottlenecks. What would have doomed the project if not done? What ended up blocking everything and dooming the project? This focuses on the real cruxes, which is good.
Yet what about Marcel, your tireless tool engineer? None of his stuff is ever absolutely necessary, but everyone in your group constantly mentions the value they get from his well-maintained and efficient tools. Should he not get any credit for it?
And Bertha, who is the only security expert of your group, and always finds excuses to make herself more and more necessary? Is this really a behavior you want to condone and praise? Shouldn’t she get blamed for it instead?
It’s at this point that you remember this short parable.
First cause
No, really, what matters most is the initial spark that puts everything in motion. Without the original idea, nothing happens; skills and expertise remain useless and flaccid, unable to toil for a worthwhile goal.
And what a coincidence: you were one of these key idea generators! All the more power to you, then. It’s only fair that you get a large share of the credit, given that the group wouldn’t even exist without you.
But that still doesn’t seem right. Yes, your contribution was integral. But could you really have done it by yourself? Probably not. Or at least not as well, as quickly, as beautifully as it has been.
Or conversely, if it failed totally, was it because the idea was doomed from the start, or because the execution proved bad enough to torpedo even sensible propositions?
Final step
You got it exactly wrong above: it’s not the first step that trumps them all, it’s the final one. Making the abstract real, adding the finishing touches, this is what makes success or failure. So you should focus your assignment on the success and failure of these last steps.
But what about you? Yes, you. You have never finished anything yourself, you’re the organizer, idea maker, coordinator. ...