Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Escape Velocity from Bullshit Jobs, published by Zvi on January 10, 2023 on LessWrong.
Without speculating here on how likely this is to happen, suppose that GPT-4 (or some other LLM or AI) speeds up, streamlines or improves quite a lot of things. What then?
The Dilemma
Samo and Ben’s dilemma: To the extent that the economy is dominated by make-work, automating it away won’t work because more make-work will be created, and any automated real work gets replaced by new make-work.
Consider homework assignments. ChatGPT lets students skip make-work. System responds by modifying conditions to force students to return to make-work. NYC schools banned ChatGPT.
Consider a bullshit office job. You send emails and make calls and take meetings and network to support inter-managerial struggles and fulfill paperwork requirements and perform class signaling to make clients and partners feel appreciated. You were hired in part to fill out someone’s budget. ChatGPT lets you compose your emails faster. They (who are they?) assign you to more in person meetings and have you make more phone calls and ramp up paperwork requirements.
The point of a bullshit job is to be a bullshit job.
There is a theory that states that if you automate away a bullshit job, it will be instantly replaced by something even more bizarre and inexplicable.
There is another theory that states this has already happened.
Automating a real job can even replace it with a bullshit job.
This argument applies beyond automation. It is a full Malthusian economic trap: Nothing can increase real productivity.
Bullshit eats all.
Eventually.
Two Models of the Growth of Bullshit
Samo’s Law of Bullshit: Bullshit rapidly expands to fill the slack available.
Law of Marginal Bullshit: There is consistent pressure in favor of marginally more bullshit. Resistance is inversely proportional to slack.
In both cases, the lack of slack eventually collapses the system.
In the second model, increased productivity buys time, and can do so indefinitely.
Notice how good economic growth feels to people. This is strong evidence for lags, and for the ability of growth and good times to outpace the problems.
A Theory of Escape Velocity
We escaped the original Malthusian trap with the Industrial Revolution, expanding capacity faster than the population could grow. A sufficient lead altered underlying conditions to the point where we should worry more about declining population than rising population in most places.
Consider the same scenario for a potential AI Revolution via GPT-4.
Presume GPT-4 allows partial or complete automation of a large percentage of existing bullshit jobs. What happens?
My model says this depends on the speed of adaptation.
Shoveling Bullshit
Can improvements outpace the bullshit growth rate?
A gradual change over decades likely gets eaten up by gradual ramping up of requirements and regulations. A change that happens overnight is more interesting.
How fast can bullshit requirements adapt?
The nightmare is ‘instantaneously.’ A famous disputed claim is that the NRC defined a ‘safe’ nuclear power plant as one no cheaper than alternative plants. Cheaper meant you could afford to Do More Safety. Advancements are useless.
Most regulatory rules are not like that. Suppose the IRS requires 100 pages of paperwork per employee. This used to take 10 hours. Now with GPT-4, as a thought experiment, let’s say it takes 1 hour.
The long run result might be 500 pages of more complicated paperwork that takes 10 hours even with GPT-4, while accomplishing nothing. That still will take time. It is not so easy or fast to come up with 400 more pages. I’d assume that would take at least a decade. It likely would need to wait until widespread adaptation of AI powered tools, or it would bury those without them.
Meanwhile, GPT-5 comes out. Gains c...