Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Omicron Post #14, published by Zvi on January 13, 2022 on LessWrong.
Important note on testing that I’m including at top of both posts today.
From various sources, I have become convinced that rapid tests taken from nose swabs are likely to often be several days slower at detecting infections than rapid tests that use throat swabs.
Here’s Washington Post on that, this quote should tell you what you need to know.
On one side are well-regardedexperts who argue that swabbing your throat in addition to your nose may increase the chances that a home test can detect omicron. On the other side are similarly well-regarded experts, including those at the Food and Drug Administration, who urge Americans to avoid experimenting with kits that were developed and tested using only nasal swabs.
This ‘disagreement’ over ‘experimentation’ made me that much more confident in the conclusion I’d already reached.
That is echoed by a lot of sources both personal and general, including in this heartfelt report of Bob Watcher, whose son has Covid-19 and reports back on the experience, including five days later follow-up where he’s still positive and acts confused about what to do because CDC guidelines are confusing a situation that is otherwise extremely not confusing.
Thus, if you want to know if you have infectious Covid-19, you need to use throat swabs. It’s still not 100% sensitivity or anything, but it’s a lot better, whereas nose swabs are useful but in no way all that reassuring.
If you want to satisfy a testing requirement that is of course another matter. These are very different goals.
This is a whole week’s roundup, because I got an opportunity to impact developments more directly and needed to jump on that with my non-day-job time instead for a few days. I hope to be able to talk about it soon, but can’t right now.
Travel
It’s a very good question. Why the hell are we still doing this?
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Monday advised Americans to avoid travel to Canada, citing “very high” levels of the coronavirus.
Canada was placed under a Level 4 travel health notice — the highest category.“Because of the current situation in Canada, even fully vaccinated travelers may be at risk for getting and spreading Covid-19 variants,” the C.D.C. said.
The United States has higher rates of Covid-19 than Canada right now, yet we do this thing. I simply can’t take seriously, as someone who might want a physically better and healthier world, anyone who restricts travel in such ways.
The CDC resumed briefings this week. This is the kind of thing they think we need to know.
Spread
CDC Nowcast has Omicron at 98.3%, which seems reasonable to me.
New update from Bob Wachter on San Francisco.
Two big notes are that there’s about an even mix of vaccinated and unvaccinated Covid patients outside of the ICU (this is SF, so a large majority of people are vaccinated) and then 11 of 12 in the ICU are unvaccinated. And then there’s the background rate, which is pretty astounding.
Trevor Bedford estimates that about one third of London infections are being detected. I continue to think that is low, especially given the peak already happened, but it’s not outside the range of possible answers.
Anecdata from Michael Mina.
A key question for modeling how things go is whether people are modifying their behavior. Some people definitely are, but others definitely aren’t, including when they know they have Omicron. One commenter noted that their friends treated it like a cold and mostly ignored it (as opposed to what one should do with a cold, which is stay home) and then there’s this.
Thread defending the UK’s case declines as genuine. I agree, there’s no reason to think the declines aren’t real.
A thread from 9 January on progress in Scotland and rest of UK, pointing out things have peaked bu...