Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: COVID Skepticism Isn't About Science, published by jaspax on December 29, 2021 on LessWrong.
You live in a roughly Dunbar-sized group. This does not mean that you live in a small village, but it does mean that your actual personal contacts, the number of people that you have direct social contact with, is about one hundred. One day, a respiratory illness starts to circulate among your social group. At first it seems just like a bad cold; later it becomes clear that it's a really bad cold.
You catch it, and you spend four days in bed with fever, muscle aches, chills, and nausea. Your sense of taste and smell go away. Once the fever breaks and you get out of bed, you deal with another week of sinus headaches and persistent dry cough. This is way longer than a typical cold, but it does eventually abate, and you get back to your normal life. [1]
In the aftermath, you take stock with your friends and acquaintances. It seems that about half of everyone you knew got the supercold; the rest avoided it by good luck or had such mild cases that they didn't notice. One person had a fever for ten days and almost had to go to the hospital, but they did eventually recover.
Nobody that you know died, though you did hear about a friend's elderly great-uncle who caught the cold and died of complications.
One day shortly after this, a mysterious man in a gray suit approaches you.
"I see that you and your friends have survived the passing of the great and terrible novel respiratory virus," he says.
"Uh, yes," you said, wondering why he refers to it in such an obtuse manner. "Who are you?"
"I am a concerned bureaucrat," the man says. "It also so happens that I am in possession of a time-travel device."
"Whoah, what? How does that work?"
"Never mind that. The point is: I can make it so that your friends do not suffer from the supercold."
"Okay. What's the catch?" You are genre-savvy and know that there is always a catch.
"Well, you'll have to close down many of your businesses for several months."
"Okay... so how will my friends who are waiters or small business owners avoid bankruptcy??"
The man shrugs. "We'll send them a check for a few thousand dollars."
"That's not nearly---"
The man cuts you off. "Also you'll have to give up in-person socializing for the same period. Especially you have to stop big social events like church and synagogue meetings, holiday parties, and weddings."
"But my sister is getting married---"
"And you will be required to wear uncomfortable masks whenever you leave the house for the same time period."
You are starting to have doubts. "But if we do this you promise it'll stop the disease?"
The man shrugs. "Well... maybe. For a little while."
"That's not very comforting. I'm really not sure that this is a good deal. Listen, the disease was about a week of discomfort for most people, nobody died, and if you hadn't showed up to make this pitch to me, I would have been well on my way to forgetting the whole thing. Is this really worth it?"
The bureaucrat begins to get upset. "How can you say nobody died?"
"I don't know a single one. My case was among the worst ones out of my friends, and it was unpleasant but not life-altering."
"What about your friend's great-uncle?"
"He was already quite old. And while his family surely grieves, it's still a fact of life that old people die a lot."
"And so you're going to throw him to the wolves in order to save your friends livelihoods!"
"Honestly... maybe. Really, though, shouldn't we be able to do something to protect the elderly or other vulnerable people without causing everyone else six months of financial hardship and lost relationships?"
"Six months..." the man squirms. "I might need you to do this for a year or two."
"And you said that I still might eventually catch the cold anyway."
"Aren't you listening to me? People di...