Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Why You Should Consider Skilled Volunteering, published by sofiabalderson on November 25, 2021 on The Effective Altruism Forum.

I came across a program organised by Animal Advocacy Careers (AAC) called Skilled Volunteering in June 2021. Before that, I had only volunteered a couple of times and was a bit skeptical of the idea - after all, I was quite busy with my full-time job at Veganuary. All the volunteering I had seen available was entry-level kind of jobs, translations and on the groundwork as in sanctuaries, which I wasn’t so keen on.

Thanks to this program, I ended up volunteering for not one but two charities and I had even more lined up for later. I came up with an idea for my consultancy, applied for a grant to get started with it, got a promotion offer at Veganuary, and eventually accepted a very exciting job offer - leading Rethink Priorities first incubated charity Insect Welfare Project (not directly connected, but volunteering helped a lot). For your context, I volunteered as a project management consultant and trained teams on Asana at Equalia ONG and We Animals Media (both part-time) while working full-time at Veganuary as a Project Manager.

In this blog, I’ll share some benefits and also some things to be aware of when doing skilled volunteering so that you can decide whether it’s for you.

1.You’ll feel great.

It feels great to know that you’re contributing to a cause that’s important to you. I don’t have to go into too much detail as it’s an EA Forum, but making an impact for a charity with your hours and effort is more satisfying for me than donating to that charity. I want all or most of my time to go to farmed animal welfare, so knowing that I can contribute even more to the cause was awesome. People are usually very grateful that you can donate your skills and time, especially if normally a similar service would be unaffordable. I chose newer charities on purpose as I felt that their systems are unlikely to be set up yet, or will be most in need of structure. In the end, I felt that the counterfactual impact was quite significant and after each call or milestone I felt so happy and content and the effort felt very much worth it.

2. You’ll improve your skills in ways you didn’t anticipate.

I was quite confident in my project management ability, but having to apply it to different contexts made me see things I didn’t see before. I ended up using the newly found information in my Veganuary job and distributed the information to other people too. I think sometimes if you just work for one organisation, you can be blind to other ways of doing things, and it’s good to be exposed to other structures and challenges.

3. You can test your ideas without too much pressure.

If you have a skill you’d like to use as a consultant, or maybe you’d like to get a job in a new area, volunteering can provide a good space for you to test this out without having demanding paying customers. In my experience, the expectation from volunteers is quite low (it doesn’t excuse not doing your job well though, more on that later), so they won’t pick at your mistakes and errors, rather giving you a creative license to try new things. Also knowing that you’re not being paid takes the pressure off in comparison to being accountable because you’re paid as a consultant and results are expected 100%.

4. You’ll grow your network!

This is a hidden gem of volunteering. I honestly did not expect this (as I joined the program to help animals mostly), but I just kept being connected to people by my new adoptive teams. They gave me improvement tips, career advice, mentorship, and links to helpful resources and events. Once people have seen you in action, they’ll be more confident to recommend you for other opportunities and jobs, and they’ll be in a strong position to give you a job referen...

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Rapid Increase of Highly Mutated B.1.1.529 Strain in South Africa, published by dawangy on November 26, 2021 on LessWrong.

I'm sorry to ruin your holidays. The video above is my only source for this information. I will summarize the key findings here.

A cluster of cases among students in Gauteng was recently sequenced. A new variant, B.1.1.529 was found. The mutation profile of this variant looks horrendous, though for now I only have this blurry image from their slides:

Each of the vertical black lines is a mutation from the original strain. For comparison, here is what the Delta variant looks like:

Some of these mutations have known phenotypic impact (effect on transmissiblity and immune evasion), while others are brand new.

As you may be quick to point out, more mutations does not equal bad. However, the proportion of sequenced cases comprised of this new variant is rapidly rising:

One might be tempted to say that this just the founder effect from the new cluster in Gauteng. However, while there has not been much full sequencing in other provinces, we can see that the lack of the "S-gene" in PCR tests, which the authors here are using as a signal that an infection may have been caused by this variant, is in fact rising rapidly in most provinces of South Africa.

Given that this is the most mutated strain of the coronavirus yet, we may be in for a rough time. The C.1.2 variant, seen in the image "Variant proportions in South Africa" above, was the strain with the most mutations until recently. C.1.2 never really took off the way that B.1.1.529 is taking off, though.

I expect that we will be hearing about this variant more. I think there is strong reason to believe that the high number of mutations in the spike protein will have a very negative impact on vaccine efficacy against this variant.

Thanks for listening. To help us out with The Nonlinear Library or to learn more, please visit nonlinear.org.

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Rapid Increase of Highly Mutated B.1.1.529 Strain in South Africa, published by dawangy on November 26, 2021 on LessWrong.

I'm sorry to ruin your holidays. The video above is my only source for this information. I will summarize the key findings here.

A cluster of cases among students in Gauteng was recently sequenced. A new variant, B.1.1.529 was found. The mutation profile of this variant looks horrendous, though for now I only have this blurry image from their slides:

Each of the vertical black lines is a mutation from the original strain. For comparison, here is what the Delta variant looks like:

Some of these mutations have known phenotypic impact (effect on transmissiblity and immune evasion), while others are brand new.

As you may be quick to point out, more mutations does not equal bad. However, the proportion of sequenced cases comprised of this new variant is rapidly rising:

One might be tempted to say that this just the founder effect from the new cluster in Gauteng. However, while there has not been much full sequencing in other provinces, we can see that the lack of the "S-gene" in PCR tests, which the authors here are using as a signal that an infection may have been caused by this variant, is in fact rising rapidly in most provinces of South Africa.

Given that this is the most mutated strain of the coronavirus yet, we may be in for a rough time. The C.1.2 variant, seen in the image "Variant proportions in South Africa" above, was the strain with the most mutations until recently. C.1.2 never really took off the way that B.1.1.529 is taking off, though.

I expect that we will be hearing about this variant more. I think there is strong reason to believe that the high number of mutations in the spike protein will have a very negative impact on vaccine efficacy against this variant.

Thanks for listening. To help us out with The Nonlinear Library or to learn more, please visit nonlinear.org.

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Covid 11/25: Another Thanksgiving, published by Zvi on November 25, 2021 on LessWrong.

For my first Thanksgiving post, which somehow was both a year ago and almost a year into the pandemic, I gave thanks at the end of the post. With all that’s happened, it seems more appropriate to do this at the beginning of the post instead this year. So I’m going to do that, and deal with this week’s news – the rise in cases, the lockdowns in Europe and all that other stuff – later.

I’ll be working from the previous version, and including almost everything from last year, plus some additions. It is crazy how little this needed to be modified after an entire year, and how many of these are still in the present tense when they could so easily have been in the past tense. Time goes by, so slowly. Keep pushing that rock up that hill, everyone.

So here we go, 2021 edition.

To all the health care workers. Thank you.

To all those maintaining the supply lines. Thank you.

To Ryan Peterson, who worked to get our containers moving again, even if it didn’t end up having as big an impact as we might have hoped. Let this inspire future efforts across the land. Thank you.

To those who worked to manufacture the vaccines as quickly as possible. Thank you.

To Pfizer, Moderna, Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca/Oxford. Thank you.

To all those working on all the other vaccine candidates, even if they didn’t work out. Including Sputnik in Russia, and the one in China. And anyone working on all the other treatments, or running any of the experiments or studies, again whether or not your particular effort paid off. Thank you.

To all those working on or expanding capacity for or administering or fighting for the right to do Covid-19 testing, especially rapid testing. Thank you.

To all the essential workers, no matter whether we still call you that. Thank you.

To you, the reader, for being here. Thank you.

To all the commenters, yes all of them. Thank you.

To those who subscribed (Substack version of this post is here). Thank you.

To all those who have thanked me for doing these columns. You keep me going. Thank you.

To everyone who helped push masks, better masks, Vitamin D, zinc, fluvoxamine, airborne transmission, doing things outdoors, proper ventilation and other key information when official sources were saying otherwise. Thank you.

To Robin Hanson in particular, without whom I would not have felt free to start writing these columns. Thank you.

I’d also single out Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok for their work at Marginal Revolution, which has provided lots of useful thoughts and information. And for the rapid grants. Thank you.

To the Covid tracking project, the Covid machine learning project, and all other similar efforts. You’re gone now, but you provided vital information when we needed it most. Thank you.

To the financial security and opportunity to keep me and my family safe, and give me the necessary time to write this column each week. And to the freedom of speech to say what I think each week. Thank you.

To China, South Korea, Japan, New Zealand, Australia and all the other places that, at for a time, beat the pandemic. You showed us it can be done. Regardless of what happened later, you all decided to do a hard thing that mattered, and made it happen. Thank you.

To everyone working to reform or contain the damage from the FDA, CDC, WHO or any other member of the Delenda Est club, or otherwise find ways around regulatory barriers. Thank you.

To the owner of the (still villainous) New England Patriots, who flew a jet in to get protective equipment to health care workers. And everyone else who did what was necessary in the face of banditry, piracy and regulatory obstruction to get people what they need. Thank you.

To those who stood up and called such barriers and enemy actions by their right na...

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Covid 11/25: Another Thanksgiving, published by Zvi on November 25, 2021 on LessWrong.

For my first Thanksgiving post, which somehow was both a year ago and almost a year into the pandemic, I gave thanks at the end of the post. With all that’s happened, it seems more appropriate to do this at the beginning of the post instead this year. So I’m going to do that, and deal with this week’s news – the rise in cases, the lockdowns in Europe and all that other stuff – later.

I’ll be working from the previous version, and including almost everything from last year, plus some additions. It is crazy how little this needed to be modified after an entire year, and how many of these are still in the present tense when they could so easily have been in the past tense. Time goes by, so slowly. Keep pushing that rock up that hill, everyone.

So here we go, 2021 edition.

To all the health care workers. Thank you.

To all those maintaining the supply lines. Thank you.

To Ryan Peterson, who worked to get our containers moving again, even if it didn’t end up having as big an impact as we might have hoped. Let this inspire future efforts across the land. Thank you.

To those who worked to manufacture the vaccines as quickly as possible. Thank you.

To Pfizer, Moderna, Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca/Oxford. Thank you.

To all those working on all the other vaccine candidates, even if they didn’t work out. Including Sputnik in Russia, and the one in China. And anyone working on all the other treatments, or running any of the experiments or studies, again whether or not your particular effort paid off. Thank you.

To all those working on or expanding capacity for or administering or fighting for the right to do Covid-19 testing, especially rapid testing. Thank you.

To all the essential workers, no matter whether we still call you that. Thank you.

To you, the reader, for being here. Thank you.

To all the commenters, yes all of them. Thank you.

To those who subscribed (Substack version of this post is here). Thank you.

To all those who have thanked me for doing these columns. You keep me going. Thank you.

To everyone who helped push masks, better masks, Vitamin D, zinc, fluvoxamine, airborne transmission, doing things outdoors, proper ventilation and other key information when official sources were saying otherwise. Thank you.

To Robin Hanson in particular, without whom I would not have felt free to start writing these columns. Thank you.

I’d also single out Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok for their work at Marginal Revolution, which has provided lots of useful thoughts and information. And for the rapid grants. Thank you.

To the Covid tracking project, the Covid machine learning project, and all other similar efforts. You’re gone now, but you provided vital information when we needed it most. Thank you.

To the financial security and opportunity to keep me and my family safe, and give me the necessary time to write this column each week. And to the freedom of speech to say what I think each week. Thank you.

To China, South Korea, Japan, New Zealand, Australia and all the other places that, at for a time, beat the pandemic. You showed us it can be done. Regardless of what happened later, you all decided to do a hard thing that mattered, and made it happen. Thank you.

To everyone working to reform or contain the damage from the FDA, CDC, WHO or any other member of the Delenda Est club, or otherwise find ways around regulatory barriers. Thank you.

To the owner of the (still villainous) New England Patriots, who flew a jet in to get protective equipment to health care workers. And everyone else who did what was necessary in the face of banditry, piracy and regulatory obstruction to get people what they need. Thank you.

To those who stood up and called such barriers and enemy actions by their right na...

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Christiano, Cotra, and Yudkowsky on AI progress, published by Eliezer Yudkowsky on November 25, 2021 on The AI Alignment Forum.

This post is a transcript of a discussion between Paul Christiano, Ajeya Cotra, and Eliezer Yudkowsky on AGI forecasting, following up on Paul and Eliezer's "Takeoff Speeds" discussion.

Color key:

Chat by Paul and Eliezer Chat by Ajeya Inline comments

8. September 20 conversation

8.1. Chess and Evergrande

[Christiano][15:28]

I still feel like you are overestimating how big a jump alphago is, or something. Do you have a mental prediction of how the graph of (chess engine quality) vs (time) looks, and whether neural net value functions are a noticeable jump in that graph?

Like, people investing in "Better Software" doesn't predict that you won't be able to make progress at playing go. The reason you can make a lot of progress at go is that there was extremely little investment in playing better go.

So then your work is being done by the claim "People won't be working on the problem of acquiring a decisive strategic advantage," not that people won't be looking in quite the right place and that someone just had a cleverer idea

[Yudkowsky][16:35]

I think I'd expect something like... chess engine slope jumps a bit for Deep Blue, then levels off with increasing excitement, then jumps for the Alpha series? Albeit it's worth noting that Deepmind's efforts there were going towards generality rather than raw power; chess was solved to the point of being uninteresting, so they tried to solve chess with simpler code that did more things. I don't think I do have strong opinions about what the chess trend should look like, vs. the Go trend; I have no memories of people saying the chess trend was breaking upwards or that there was a surprise there.

Incidentally, the highly well-traded financial markets are currently experiencing sharp dips surrounding the Chinese firm of Evergrande, which I was reading about several weeks before this.

I don't see the basic difference in the kind of reasoning that says "Surely foresightful firms must produce investments well in advance into earlier weaker applications of AGI that will double the economy", and the reasoning that says "Surely world economic markets and particular Chinese stocks should experience smooth declines as news about Evergrande becomes better-known and foresightful financial firms start to remove that stock from their portfolio or short-sell it", except that in the latter case there are many more actors with lower barriers to entry than presently exist in the auto industry or semiconductor industry never mind AI.

or if not smooth because of bandwagoning and rational fast actors, then at least the markets should (arguendo) be reacting earlier than they're reacting now, given that I heard about Evergrande earlier; and they should have options-priced Covid earlier; and they should have reacted to the mortgage market earlier. If even markets there can exhibit seemingly late wild swings, how is the economic impact of AI - which isn't even an asset market! - forced to be earlier and smoother than that, as a result of wise investing?

There's just such a vast gap between hopeful reasoning about how various agents and actors should all do the things the speaker finds very reasonable, thereby yielding smooth behavior of the Earth, versus reality.

9. September 21 conversation

9.1. AlphaZero, innovation vs. industry, the Wright Flyer, and the Manhattan Project

[Christiano][10:18]

(For benefit of readers, the market is down 1.5% from friday close -> tuesday open, after having drifted down 2.5% over the preceding two weeks. Draw whatever lesson you want from that.)

Also for the benefit of readers, here is the SSDF list of computer chess performance by year. I think the last datapoint is with the first version of neu...

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Announcing my retirement, published by Aaron Gertler on November 25, 2021 on The Effective Altruism Forum.

A few sharp-eyed readers noticed my imminent departure from CEA in our last quarterly report. Gold stars all around!

My last day as our content specialist — and thus, my last day helping to run the Forum — is December 10th. The other moderators will continue to handle the basics, and we’re in the process of hiring my replacement. (Let me know if anyone comes to mind!)

Managing this place was fun. It wasn’t always fun, but — on the whole, a good time.

I’ve enjoyed giving feedback to a few hundred people, organizing some interesting AMAs, running a writing contest, building up the Digest, hosting workshops for EA groups around the world, and deleting a truly staggering number of comments advertising escort services (I’ll spare you the link).

More broadly, I’ve felt a continual sense of admiration for everyone who cares about the Forum and tries to make it better — by reading, voting, posting, crossposting, commenting, tagging, Wiki-editing, bug-reporting, and/or moderating. Collectively, you’ve put in tens of thousands of hours of work to develop our strange, complicated, unique website, with scant compensation besides karma.

(Now that I’m leaving, it’s time to be honest — despite the rumors, our karma isn’t the kind that gets you a better afterlife.)

Thank you for everything you’ve done to make this job what it was.

What’s next?

In January, I’ll join Open Philanthropy as their communications officer, where I’ll help their researchers to publish more of their work.

I’ll also be joining Effective Giving Quest as their first partnered streamer. Wish me luck: moderating this place sometimes felt like herding cats, but it’s nothing compared to Twitch chat.

My Forum comments will be less frequent, but probably spicier.

Thanks for listening. To help us out with The Nonlinear Library or to learn more, please visit nonlinear.org.

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Announcing my retirement, published by Aaron Gertler on November 25, 2021 on The Effective Altruism Forum.

A few sharp-eyed readers noticed my imminent departure from CEA in our last quarterly report. Gold stars all around!

My last day as our content specialist — and thus, my last day helping to run the Forum — is December 10th. The other moderators will continue to handle the basics, and we’re in the process of hiring my replacement. (Let me know if anyone comes to mind!)

Managing this place was fun. It wasn’t always fun, but — on the whole, a good time.

I’ve enjoyed giving feedback to a few hundred people, organizing some interesting AMAs, running a writing contest, building up the Digest, hosting workshops for EA groups around the world, and deleting a truly staggering number of comments advertising escort services (I’ll spare you the link).

More broadly, I’ve felt a continual sense of admiration for everyone who cares about the Forum and tries to make it better — by reading, voting, posting, crossposting, commenting, tagging, Wiki-editing, bug-reporting, and/or moderating. Collectively, you’ve put in tens of thousands of hours of work to develop our strange, complicated, unique website, with scant compensation besides karma.

(Now that I’m leaving, it’s time to be honest — despite the rumors, our karma isn’t the kind that gets you a better afterlife.)

Thank you for everything you’ve done to make this job what it was.

What’s next?

In January, I’ll join Open Philanthropy as their communications officer, where I’ll help their researchers to publish more of their work.

I’ll also be joining Effective Giving Quest as their first partnered streamer. Wish me luck: moderating this place sometimes felt like herding cats, but it’s nothing compared to Twitch chat.

My Forum comments will be less frequent, but probably spicier.

Thanks for listening. To help us out with The Nonlinear Library or to learn more, please visit nonlinear.org.

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Why do you need the story?, published by George on November 24, 2021 on LessWrong.

Boy: Why are you washing your hands?

Shaman: Because this root is poisonous.

Boy: Then why pull it out of the ground?

Shaman: Because the pulp within it can cure the mosquito disease.

Boy: But, I thought you said it was poisonous.

Shaman: It is, but the outside is more so than the inside.

Boy: Still, if it's poisonous, how can it cure things.

Shaman: It's the dose that makes the poison.

Boy: So can I eat the pulp?

Shaman: No, because you are not sick, it's the disease that makes the medicine.

Boy: So it's good for a sick man, but bad for me?

Shaman: Yes, because, the sick man must suffer in order to be cured.

Boy: Why?

Shaman: Because he made the spirits angry, that's why he got the disease.

Boy: So why will suffering make it better?

Shaman: Suffering is part of admitting guilt and seeking forgiveness, the root helps the sick man atone for his transgression. Afterwards, the spirits lift the disease.

Boy: The spirits seem evil.

Shaman: The spirits are neither evil, nor are they, good, as we understand it.

Boy: Ohhh

Shaman: Here, sit, let me tell you how our world was made...

Ok, that sounds like a half believable wise mystic, right? That would make for a decent intro to a mediocre young-adult fantasy coming of age powertrip novel

Now, imagine if the shaman just left it as "The root is poisonous if you are not sick, but it helps if you are sick and eat a bit of its pulp, most of the time". No rules of thumb about dose making the poison, no speculations as to how it works, no postulation of metaphysical rules, no analogies to morality, no grand story for the creation of the universe.

That'd be one boring shaman, right? Outright unbelievable. Nobody would trust such a witcherman to take them in the middle of the jungle and give them a psychedelic brew, he's daft. The other guy though... he might be made of the right stuff to hold ayahuasca ceremonies.

This is not limited to shamans though, but it's more obvious to see in the case of shamans, because you don't use their services.

If you are willing to stop adverting your eyes from uncomfortable uncertainty, you'll see it in most modern specialists, from electricians, to doctors to nuclear physicists. We are all just 2 or 3 reality-validated claims away from babbling nonsense in order to give answers to a a "why".

Ok, let me try again:

Boy: Why did you give my dad ibuprofen?

Doctor: Because it helps cure diseases, like colds.

Boy: So if I take it every day, will I never get sick?

Doctor: Oh, no no, you shouldn't do that, it can be dangerous.

Boy: Then why is it good when you're sick?

Doctor: Because it treats inflammation, which is something that happens only when your sick.

Boy: What's inflammation, why does it happen when you're sick?

Doctor: It's a process through which the body fights diseases.

Boy: So isn't it good?

Doctor: Well no, because the body also damages itself by doing it.

Boy: Why?

Doctor: Well, because it's impossible to fight a disease without also damaging the body, the infected cells need to die, and the systems fighting the infection are imprecise, they will end up destroying nearby healthy tissue.

Boy: Ok, but then if we stop inflammation, how does the disease go away?

Doctor: Ahm, it's specific types of inflammation that are bad, or specific parts of it, and ibuprofen stops those nasty parts.

Boy: Why are the nasty parts there to begin with?

Doctor: Well, because evolution made our immune system adapted for an environment with more dangerous pathogens and injuries, but for modern man diseases are less dangerous.

Boy: But aren't there more diseases now due to people travelling all over? Like the coronavirus

Doctor: Oh, well, yes, but hygiene also played a part in this. Have you ever heard about Louis Pasteur? No? Ok, let...

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Why do you need the story?, published by George on November 24, 2021 on LessWrong.

Boy: Why are you washing your hands?

Shaman: Because this root is poisonous.

Boy: Then why pull it out of the ground?

Shaman: Because the pulp within it can cure the mosquito disease.

Boy: But, I thought you said it was poisonous.

Shaman: It is, but the outside is more so than the inside.

Boy: Still, if it's poisonous, how can it cure things.

Shaman: It's the dose that makes the poison.

Boy: So can I eat the pulp?

Shaman: No, because you are not sick, it's the disease that makes the medicine.

Boy: So it's good for a sick man, but bad for me?

Shaman: Yes, because, the sick man must suffer in order to be cured.

Boy: Why?

Shaman: Because he made the spirits angry, that's why he got the disease.

Boy: So why will suffering make it better?

Shaman: Suffering is part of admitting guilt and seeking forgiveness, the root helps the sick man atone for his transgression. Afterwards, the spirits lift the disease.

Boy: The spirits seem evil.

Shaman: The spirits are neither evil, nor are they, good, as we understand it.

Boy: Ohhh

Shaman: Here, sit, let me tell you how our world was made...

Ok, that sounds like a half believable wise mystic, right? That would make for a decent intro to a mediocre young-adult fantasy coming of age powertrip novel

Now, imagine if the shaman just left it as "The root is poisonous if you are not sick, but it helps if you are sick and eat a bit of its pulp, most of the time". No rules of thumb about dose making the poison, no speculations as to how it works, no postulation of metaphysical rules, no analogies to morality, no grand story for the creation of the universe.

That'd be one boring shaman, right? Outright unbelievable. Nobody would trust such a witcherman to take them in the middle of the jungle and give them a psychedelic brew, he's daft. The other guy though... he might be made of the right stuff to hold ayahuasca ceremonies.

This is not limited to shamans though, but it's more obvious to see in the case of shamans, because you don't use their services.

If you are willing to stop adverting your eyes from uncomfortable uncertainty, you'll see it in most modern specialists, from electricians, to doctors to nuclear physicists. We are all just 2 or 3 reality-validated claims away from babbling nonsense in order to give answers to a a "why".

Ok, let me try again:

Boy: Why did you give my dad ibuprofen?

Doctor: Because it helps cure diseases, like colds.

Boy: So if I take it every day, will I never get sick?

Doctor: Oh, no no, you shouldn't do that, it can be dangerous.

Boy: Then why is it good when you're sick?

Doctor: Because it treats inflammation, which is something that happens only when your sick.

Boy: What's inflammation, why does it happen when you're sick?

Doctor: It's a process through which the body fights diseases.

Boy: So isn't it good?

Doctor: Well no, because the body also damages itself by doing it.

Boy: Why?

Doctor: Well, because it's impossible to fight a disease without also damaging the body, the infected cells need to die, and the systems fighting the infection are imprecise, they will end up destroying nearby healthy tissue.

Boy: Ok, but then if we stop inflammation, how does the disease go away?

Doctor: Ahm, it's specific types of inflammation that are bad, or specific parts of it, and ibuprofen stops those nasty parts.

Boy: Why are the nasty parts there to begin with?

Doctor: Well, because evolution made our immune system adapted for an environment with more dangerous pathogens and injuries, but for modern man diseases are less dangerous.

Boy: But aren't there more diseases now due to people travelling all over? Like the coronavirus

Doctor: Oh, well, yes, but hygiene also played a part in this. Have you ever heard about Louis Pasteur? No? Ok, let...