Nirgunan Tiruchelvam is an equities analyst with three decades of experience covering the Asian region. He currently works for Tellimer (formerly Exotix Partners), dividing his time between Dubai and Singapore. He has also worked for Standard Chartered, ABN Amro, and RBS. Nirgunan is a graduate of Oxford University, where he read Philosophy, Politics and Economics (PPE). He has written for the Financial Times and has appeared as a TV commentator on BBC, Channel News Asia, CNBC and Bloomberg. His views have been cited by the Wall Street Journal and Reuters. He is the author of Investing in the Covid Era: How to Spot Opportunities and Pitfalls (March 2021). Recorded April 30, 2021

Shownotes:  

• 01:44 NT on his cosmopolitan upbringing between Sri Lanka, India and England. 
• 03:30 NT on his start at the Asian investment bank Crosby during the go-go 90s. 
• 06:30 NT on his ringside seat during the Asian Financial Crisis and lessons learned from that crisis. 
• 15:43 NT on the common theme underlying investing in the COVID era. 
• 18:54 NT on the red flags investors should be on the look out for. 
• 21:42 NT on the place for precious metals in a COVID portfolio. 
• 24:07 NT on some problems facing the traditional Singapore Inc. 
• 25:17 NT on what went wrong at Hin Leong, a Singaporean oil trading company that recently declared bankruptcy. 
• 27:56 NT on comparing the e-commerce landscape in Southeast Asia versus China. 
• 33:33 NT on the next big opportunities in Southeast Asian e-commerce.  
• 39:00 NT on where to look for investment opportunities in post-pandemic life. 
• 44:30 NT on the prospects for greater economic integration within ASEAN. 
• 53:12 NT on Sri Lanka’s close economic partnership with China. 

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A giant of US foreign policy, Eliot A. Cohen is the Robert E. Osgood Professor of Strategic Studies and Dean of Johns Hopkins SAIS. After receiving his BA and PhD degrees from Harvard, he taught there and at the US Naval War College before coming to Johns Hopkins SAIS in 1990. His books include, most recently, The Big Stick: The Limits of Soft Power and the Necessity of Military Force (2017) as well as Conquered into Liberty: Two Centuries of Battle along the Great Warpath that Made the American Way of War (2012) and Supreme Command: Soldiers, Statesmen, and Leadership in Wartime (2003), among others. He served in the US Army Reserve, was a director in the Defense Department’s policy planning staff, led the US Air Force’s multi-volume study of the first Gulf War, and has served in various official advisory positions. In 2007-2009 he was Counselor of the Department of State, serving as Senior Adviser to Secretary Condoleezza Rice, focusing on issues of war and peace, including Iraq and Afghanistan. He is a contributing editor at The Atlantic, and his commentary has also appeared in The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times and on major television networks.

 Shownotes: 
03:49 EC on the role of military and defense in the context of a global world order.  

05:47 EC on the role of non-US military in the international system.   

08:08 EC on the increasing role of cyber warfare as a tool of military conflict.  

09:22 EC on a paradigm for understanding China's new role within the international system.  

12:40 EC on whether different political systems can co-exist peacefully.  

14:45 EC on whether the West was overly optimistic about China's embrace of Western political norms.  

17:07 EC on the recent détente in the Middle East and whether it can provide a model for other interminable conflicts in the region.  

22:02 EC on the role of the Israeli military in Middle East relations.  

22:45 EC on the quadrilateral security dialogue between India, Australia, New Zealand and Japan (Quad).  

26:35 EC on the continued importance of national sovereignty in our era of hyper-globalization.  

29:09 EC on serving under former US Secretary of State, Condoleeza Rice.  

32:03 EC on why he is optimistic about the US in the long term.

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Jim Rickards, an American lawyer, is the author of the national bestseller, Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis, and a partner in JAC Capital Advisors, a hedge fund based in New York. He is a counsellor and investment advisor and has held senior positions at Citibank, Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) and Caxton Associates. He was the principal negotiator of the rescue of the LTCM sponsored by the Federal Reserve. He has been interviewed in The Wall Street Journal and has appeared on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox, CNN, BBC and is an Op-Ed contributor to the Financial Times, New York Times and Washington Post. Mr. Rickards is a visiting lecturer at Northwestern and the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) at the Johns Hopkins University. He has written and delivered numerous papers on risk management. He is an advisor on capital markets to the Director of National Intelligence and the Office of the Secretary of Defense. Mr. Rickards holds an LLM in Taxation from the NYU School of Law, a J.D. from the University of Pennsylvania Law School, an M.A. in economics from SAIS and a B.A. from the Johns Hopkins University. He joins us to tell us about his latest book, The New Great Depression: Winners and Losers in a Post-Pandemic World. For the full episode, visit reorientpodcast.com.

  Show Notes

07:48 JR on the difference between depressions and recessions.  

15:40  JR on being raised with a depression mentality through the 50s and 60s, long after the last great depression. 

20:20 JR on how the botched policy response to the pandemic caused the depression. 

23:32 JR on how this was the greatest economic blunder in history. 

27:30 JR on the disastrous politicization of the virus. 

30:00 JR  tracks the initial spread of the virus. 

37:23 JR on the increasing impotence of central banks. 

39:43 JR on "Chinese levels" of saving in the US economy. 

43:18 JR on the multiple asset bubbles, whether in crypto, stock market or residential housing. 

47:00 JR on how small businesses have borne the brunt of the pandemic. 

49:00 JR on the looming risk of systemic failure. 

52:00 JR on the structural problems and demographic time bomb in the Chinese economy.  

1:01 JR explains the Triffin dilemma. 

1:02 JR on the viability of a yuan denominated bond. 

1:03:44 JR on the winning strategies in his new book The New Great Depression. 

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Leonhard A. Weese is a young Austrian economist who came to Hong Kong at the beginning of the last decade to study statistics, fell in love with the city’s freewheeling capitalism and never left. During that time Weese became involved with the city’s nascent Bitcoin scene, where he, along with a few other interested parties, started hosting Bitcoin meetups in order to come together and understand this revolutionary new form of money. Within a year of the first meetup, the events grew to attract hundreds of attendees. In order to meet the public demand for more information, Weese co-founded the Bitcoin Association of  Hong Kong, overseeing its evolution from niche club to a more mature organization that today boasts 6000 members, puts out white papers on Bitcoin regulation, and serves as a reliable and accessible resource for the local and international Bitcoin community. For the full interview, visit reorientpodcast.com

 Show Notes 

• 00:02:20 LAW on Austrian economics as a jumping off point to understand Bitcoin  
• 00:06:50 LAW on how universities have had relatively little engagement with Bitcoin 
• 00:08:40 LAW on the purity and energy of the early Bitcoin meetups 
• 00:12:00 LAW on Bitcoin arbitrage between Hong Kong and China in the early days 
• 00:14:50 LAW on the state of Bitcoin regulation in Hong Kong 
• 00:19:30 Prominent HK investor David Webb on Bitcoin 
• 00:21:19 LAW explains the nuts and bolts of Bitcoin 
• 00:26:30 LAW explains the workings of blockchain technology 
• 00:29:55 LAW on the Bitcoin halvening 
• 00:33:10 LAW on how verification works in Bitcoin 
• 00:37:32 LAW on the free rider problem in Bitcoin verification 
• 00:39:37 LAW on Bitcoin’s most famous error 
• 00:42:10 LAW on the cost of maintaining Bitcoin as a form of money 
• 00:43:50 LAW on Bitcoin mining in China 
• 00:48:16 LAW on Chinese government policy towards Bitcoin 
• 00:49:42  LAW on how Chinese investors are using Bitcoin 
• 00:53:03 LAW on how other cryptos like ETH stack up against Bitcoin 
• 00:55:30 LAW answers critics who claim Bitcoin isn’t a real technological breakthrough but a speculative tool 
• 00:58:08 LAW posits that Bitcoin is not a threat to governments 
• 01:00:11 LAW on how it’s almost impossible for governments to enact effective bans on Bitcoin 
• 01:01:41 LAW on how Japan is exceptionally progressive in Bitcoin regulation 
• 01:02:38 LAW on the crypto scene in Southeast Asia 
• 01:04:22 LAW on whether Bitcoin can overcome its innate volatility to become money 
• 01:06:04 LAW on Bitcoin as part of an investment portfolio 
• 01:07:57 LAW on why governments of small countries have incentives to get on the crypto train 
• 01:11:38 LAW on what Bitcoin could offer financial centres like Singapore and Hong Kong in order to compete against digital economy vanguard nations like Estonia 

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Allan Zeman, the father of Hong Kong’s famed Lan Kwai Fong nightlife district, has had the most extraordinary career: born in Germany and raised in Montreal, he made his first million in Hong Kong by the age of 20. Today, he is one of Hong Kong's most prominent businessmen. In 2008, he gave up his Canadian citizenship and became a naturalized citizen of the People’s Republic of China. Access the full podcast at reorientpodcast.com.

Show Notes:

01:30 AZ describes his youth as a newspaper boy and retail salesman in Montreal.

06:38 AZ on how he made his first million.

06:50 AZ on how the Canadian taxman prompted him to move to the other side of the world.

11:46 AZ on the the secret to doing business across cultures.

15:20 AZ on the beginning’s of Hong Kong’s storied nightlife district, Lan Kwai Fong.

24:12 AZ on taking Ocean Park into battle with Disney and winning.

31:39 AZ on how to take care of your money.

35:40 AZ on being on the factory floors of the New Territories versus the clubby world of Hong Kong.

40:08 AZ on his momentous decision to give up his Canadian passport and become a Chinese citizen.

43:15 AZ on why China seems to be on track to overtake the American economy.

54:36 AZ on the current situation in Hong Kong.

57:25 AZ on the Greater Bay Area.

01:03:18 AZ on the current wave of out-migration from Hong Kong.

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• Notes from Utopia:
  • the Tropicalist discusses the history of venture capital and finds a surprising link to Furuzonfar Zehni’s ancestors.
  
  
• Hosts Jesse and Madhavi discuss:
  • the increasing ability to have a global career in finance without being a product of Western institutions
  • the historic Sogdian civilization of Central Asia and how it provides a template for Central Asian development today
  • Central Asia’s immense strategic importance
  
  

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Furuzonfar Zehni, a young venture capitalist, travels the world to meet with entrepreneurs, whose businesses his firm helps grow into tomorrow’s unicorns.  His Tajik heritage finds new relevance in the new globalized, tech-driven economy. Full interview on Reorientpodcast.com.

 Show Notes

 4:11 FZ on global seed investing. 

 5:50 FZ on how his unique upbringing prepared him for this relatively young field.

 8:01 FZ on the cultural differences between the Middle East and Northern Europe.

 12:44 FZ on what prompted him to shift his focus to Asia and Hong Kong and first impressions. 

 15:12 FZ on the Fresco approach to investing—what are the lenses they use.

 18:30 FZ on the nexus between culture and venture capital, with specific examples.

 21: 46 FZ on the cultural differences among their portfolio companies in various markets.

 28:00 FZ on the history of venture capital and whether there are equivalent forms of financing elsewhere.

 32:46 FZ on whether there is a regional identity in Central Asia.

 34:23 FZ on the ethnic diversity of Central Asia. 

 37:30 FZ on the historical economic importance and unique socio-political organization of Central Asia. 

 40:40 FZ on the golden age of Central Asia.

 48:13 FZ on how Central Asia can avoid the pitfalls of over-reliance on natural resources.

 50:26 FZ on the modern day economies of Central Asia: strengths and weaknesses.

 54:07 FZ on Central Asia’s relationship with its neighbouring superpowers.

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The Crazy Rich Asians author spills the beans on Asia’s new money, that vaunted work ethic and the first thing he's going to do post COVID. Listen to the full interview at Reorientpodcast.com. 

Show Notes: 

 4:03 KK talks about his path to success and how he would advise young Asians wanting to pursue a creative career.

 10:11 KK talks about his childhood and how to parent for creativity.

 13:53 KK on the cultural difference between Asians from Asia and Asian Americans. 

17:21 KK on how the current wave of wealthy émigrés from China are influencing the Asian American zeitgeist. 

20:30 KK on the phenomenon of “international Asians”. 

22:56 KK on the spirit of enterprise in the new Asia and what powers the drive to achieve characteristic of so many overseas Asian communities. 

26:51 KK on connoisseurship in Asia. 

30:57 KK on how Asia will define the new modern. 

36:23 KK on world cities across the globe, what drives their rise and fall, and life in LA vs. NY vs. Singapore vs. HK. 

42:21 KK on the process behind his new novel, Sex and Vanity. 

46:03 KK on his upcoming television and film projects and the process of taking his stories from print to film.  

48:03 KK on how he feels about the Crazy Rich Asians movie. 

52:45 KK on what inspires him. 

54:46 KK on how Asia fared so much better than the West in its response to COVID.  

57:47 KK on what he’s looking forward to doing post-COVID.  

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Notes From Utopia:

• The Tropicalist recounts the history of previous pivotal developments in information and communications technology and how civilizations that failed to grasp the importance of such developments eventually lost out

Jesse and Madhavi discuss:

• 5G: hype vs reality
• the rollout of 5G in economically developed parts of Asia versus less developed parts of Asia
• the possibility of 5G being “galapagosized”
• the wisdom in the Chinese approach to tech regulation

Links:

• Interview with Morris Chang of TSMC (podcast)
• Silicon Valley Rooted in Backing from US Military
• Cold War Armory: Military Contracting in Silicon Valley
• Japan Considers TSMC Tie-Up to Boost Chip Industry, Yomiuri Says
• China Set to Pass Its Own Law Protecting Vital Tech From U.S.
• UK Includes Huawei Ban in Telecoms Security Bill
• Chinese Hackers Have Pillaged Taiwan’s Semiconductor Industry
• Chinese Scientists Claim Breakthrough in Quantum Computing
• Semiconductor Industry Is the New Battleground in Great Power Conflict
• Galapagos Effect: How Can Japan Capture Global Value from Japan’s Technologies and New Business Models?
• Text of Huawei’s Meng Wanzhou’s Speech at the 2014 Huawei ICT Finance Forum
• Kondratieff Wave Theory
• Paper Before Print: The History and Impact of Paper in the Islamic World
• Sanctioned: The Arrest of a Telecom Giant (podcast)
• Xi Warns Against Tech Excess in Sign Crackdown Will Widen

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Intel alum and Asian tech VC Michael Bruck on the little known history of tech in Asia and why Asia will dominate the next wave of innovation. Full interview available at Reorientpodcast.com.

 Show Notes:

 04:00 In layman terms, MB charts the evolution of the semiconductor industry from punch cards to vacuum tubes to transistors to silicon-based integrated circuits. 

 06:08 MB on the the role played by the US government and military in the development of the commercial electronic computing industry.

 20:26 MB on how Japan drove the invention of the microprocessor and eventually got better at designing memories than the Americans and how Intel responded by turning to CPUs and the nascent personal computing industry.

 26:07 MB on the mercantilist approach taken by Japan’s METI (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry) in fostering Japanese dominance in the memory business.

 28:39 MB on how domestic developments in the US drove the internationalization of semiconductor manufacturing.

 31:51 MB on how international students from Asia, such as Morris Chang of TSMC, eventually helped grow key technology industries in their home countries.

 34:00 MB on how the horizontalisation of the PC industry contributed to the globalization of its component parts.

 40:12 MB on the transition to the mobile era.

 47:30 MB on who sets the industry standards and how this impacts the geography of innovation.

 54:03 MB on the China tech landscape and one internet for China and one for the rest of the world.

 59:30 MB on why the current 5G moment is so pivotal.

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