The Orthogonal Bet

In this episode, Samuel Arbesman speaks with Florian Jehn, a researcher who studies the nature of societal collapse and the author of the blog Existential Crunch. Existential Crunch examines and summarizes scientific work in this space, serving as a living literature review of research on societal collapse.

Samuel and Florian discuss the origins of Existential Crunch, the radically interdisciplinary nature of collapse studies, and how the field cuts across domains—from the statistical study of history and the rise and fall of civilizations to catastrophic and existential risk, and the mechanics of societal resilience. They also explore what collapse might feel like from the inside, and whether we could already be living through a slow-motion version of it.

In this episode, Samuel Arbesman speaks with novelist Dexter Palmer, the author of three books that deliberately resist easy categorization. As they discuss, Palmer’s work can be thought of as literary fiction infused with science-fictional tropes and textures. His debut, The Dream of Perpetual Motion, is a kind of steampunk tale; Version Control explores a near-future world with dollops of time travel; and Mary Toft; or, The Rabbit Queen is historical fiction drawn from the real 18th-century case of a woman who claimed—falsely—to be giving birth to rabbits.

Together, Arbesman and Palmer talk through Palmer’s novels, the nature of realism in science fiction, how to build a lived-in near future, the tradeoffs of exposition and “info dumps,” the strangeness of AI, the parallels between historical fiction and science fiction, and more.

In this episode, Samuel Arbesman speaks with Stuart Buck, executive director of the Good Science Project—a think tank devoted to better understanding how science is done and funded. Stuart previously served as a vice president at Arnold Ventures, where he focused (among other things) on scientific practice and reproducibility, and he holds a PhD in education policy and a JD. Stuart also wrote a fascinating essay last year for Palladium Magazine titled “The Case for Crazy Philanthropy,” and Samuel wanted to explore the idea with him.

Together, they discuss the nature and history of “crazy philanthropy,” why we don’t see more of it, and how to incentivize everything from risk-taking to new—and genuinely weird—types of research institutions. They also dig into metascience, neglected research, and federal science funding more broadly, including potential scenarios for where U.S. science might head next. This conversation was recorded in September 2025, so a few references may be slightly dated.

Tinkered Thinking is the pseudonym of the author behind White Mirror, a collection of stories that explore the implications of artificial intelligence and advances in computing—while offering a more optimistic lens than much of contemporary science fiction.

In this episode, Samuel Arbesman speaks with Tinkered Thinking about the origins of these stories and his broader evolution as a writer, including his shift from a kind of Luddism toward a more forward-looking view of technological progress. Their conversation ranges across how we examine ideas about the future, societal blind spots around technology, the impact and importance of AI, concerns about AI doomers, and the kind of future he hopes we might create.

In this episode, Samuel Arbesman speaks again with Alec Nevala-Lee. Arbesman previously hosted Nevala-Lee to discuss his biography of Buckminster Fuller; this time, Nevala-Lee returns to talk about his new book, Collisions, a biography of Nobel Prize–winning physicist Luis Alvarez. Alvarez’s career ranged across particle physics, the Manhattan Project, the investigation of the JFK assassination, and—alongside his son—the asteroid-impact theory of dinosaur extinction.

Arbesman and Nevala-Lee explore how Nevala-Lee first became interested in Alvarez; the physicist’s unique skills, brilliance, and difficult personality; the character of Berkeley and the Rad Lab in Alvarez’s era; the kinds and scale of science that most appealed to him; and his extensive work with the U.S. government. They also discuss Alvarez’s views on computers and the broader lessons from his life about choosing research problems and thriving as a successful outsider.

In this episode, Samuel Arbesman speaks with Nick Foster, a designer and futurist who has worked with numerous major companies imagining a variety of futures—from Nokia and Dyson to Google. Foster is also the author of the new book Could Should Might Don’t, which explores the many ways we do and can think about the future.

Arbesman and Foster discuss how Foster found his way into the world of futures thinking and the nature of futures design work within organizations. Their conversation covers Foster’s taxonomy of different kinds of futures design, the importance of cultivating better future-thinking practices, common mistakes in forecasting, and the limits of prediction itself. They also delve into his perspective on science fiction and his distinctive approach to futures work—what he calls the “future mundane,” a vision of the future as a lived-in, everyday world.

In this episode, Samuel Arbesman speaks with David Edmonds, cohost of the Philosophy Bites podcast and bestselling author of numerous books on philosophy, including his most recent work, Death in a Shallow Pond: A Philosopher, A Drowning Child, and Strangers in Need. In this delightful book, Edmonds explores Peter Singer’s famous “shallow pond” thought experiment—its moral implications, its influence, and how it gave rise to the Effective Altruism movement. The result is a fascinating biography of an idea and a penetrating analysis of its ripple effects through ethics and action.

Arbesman and Edmonds delve into the origins and nature of the Shallow Pond experiment, tracing its journey from moral philosophy to practical impact through Effective Altruism. They discuss the demandingness of Singer’s argument, the most compelling counterpoints, the EA movement’s evolution toward longtermism and focus on AI and existential risk, why EA provokes criticism, and the broader question of how thought experiments shape the real world.

n this episode, Samuel Arbesman speaks with Rohit Krishnan, one of the most playful and insightful thinkers in the world of ideas. Rohit writes Strange Loop Canon, a newsletter devoted to exploring delightfully wide-ranging concepts—including artificial intelligence. He also recently collaborated with Jon Evans on Walter, a project that trained an AI to be good at social media.

Together, Samuel and Rohit discuss Walter and the curious question of why large language models remain so poor at good writing, despite being built around text. Their conversation branches into topics such as reinforcement learning for writing, useful metaphors for understanding LLMs—like “fuzzy processors”—and whether emphasizing the alienness of AIs is a fruitful endeavor. They also touch on the idea of nurturing AI, how to use these systems in one’s work and life, and what all this means for the future of labor—perhaps a future that feels more like a video game. Above all, they explore the importance of continuing to play with these strange new tools.

In this episode, Samuel Arbesman speaks with Linda Liukas, author of the beloved Hello Ruby children’s book series about computers, as well as a new Finnish-language book for adults on computing. Liukas also recently designed a playground in Helsinki that introduces children to foundational ideas in computer science through play.

Together, Arbesman and Liukas explore her path to becoming a children’s book author, how to cultivate curiosity, and the appeal of generative AI. Their conversation ranges across educational philosophies, playground design, and the relationship between play and curiosity. They also delve into the teaching of history within computer science, reflecting on the historical intersection of computing and education and the need to rekindle those connections.

In this episode, Samuel Arbesman speaks with Molly Mielke. Despite her youth, Molly has already built a fascinating career across tech—spending time at Notion, Figma, Stripe, and the Browser Company—before launching her own venture fund, Moth Fund. Along the way, she’s learned a great deal about herself and thought deeply about the role of technology in the world.

Arbesman and Mielke discuss her career so far, why she chose to move into venture, how she evaluates and supports people—whether through startup investments or grants—and the kinds of builders and thinkers who earn her conviction. The conversation also dives into tech culture, San Francisco’s gravitational pull and monoculture, the dynamics of age and youth, and how Molly frames meaning and purpose in work and life.