The Penta Podcast Channel

This week on What's at Stake, Bryan DeAngelis hosts Penta Partner Meghan Pennington and Managing Director Ylan Mui to dissect the looming battle over the U.S. debt ceiling. With an uncertain "X date" approaching, and President Biden, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, and the "five families" of the Republican caucus at odds, the stakes are getting higher every day. The group navigates the murky waters of debt ceiling negotiations in Congress and discusses whether the divides within the Republican caucus might play into Biden's hands. They also delve into the market's reaction to the looming crisis and explore how companies can engage with policymakers to move things forward in Washington. 

As the tension mounts, they ask the key questions: What's the backup plan if McCarthy's strategy fails? Will Democrats budge on their demand for a "clean" debt ceiling hike?" And how can companies position themselves ahead of the inevitable appropriations debate later this year? Tune in now to stay ahead of the game

The topic: the debt ceiling. On this edition of the Macrocast, our host Ylan Mui is joined by John Fagan and Brendan Walsh of Markets Policy Partners, as well as Zach Moller, Director of Third Way's Economic Program. The group delves into the looming debt ceiling, analyzing the political landscape, and predicting how the markets will react. From a hard-to-pin-down X date–the day on which the federal government is no longer able to meet its fiscal obligations–to "break glass strategies," the group draws on its decades of experience observing Congress, the Treasury, and markets to offer their predictions on how McCarthy's majority and the Biden administration will navigate the impending debt ceiling negotiations.

Generative AI is here and here to stay. Opportunities abound for adopters—but businesses need to consider the ways in which they are vulnerable to AI-driven risks, including risks to their brands. On today's episode of What's at Stake, Bryan DeAngelis, Andrea Christianson, Oliver Edelmann, and Blake McGill break down Penta's new framework to help companies assess the brand risks of AI. After describing some of the scenarios when a brand may be at risk from AI, Bryan, Andrea, Oliver, and Blake discuss how Penta is helping companies think through minimizing that risk.

The group discusses how companies convening the right group of experts, including staff from legal, HR, IT, communications, and other departments, is crucial to ensure that the company's brand is not negatively impacted by its use of, or policy on, AI technology. Companies must also audit their current and future use of AI to triage areas of potential internal, external, and personal risk. Despite the risks, the group explains that generative AI technology is here to stay, and companies must engage to minimize brand risks.

For more on how companies should think about the impact of AI on their brand, read our full AI brand risk framework.

This week on the Macrocast, Ylan Mui, Brendan Walsh, and John Fagan dive into the latest from the Federal Reserve and this week's IMF-World Bank spring meetings, exploring whether the FOMC's predictions and current macroeconomic indicators point to signs of a recession. The group also discusses Speaker Kevin McCarthy's upcoming speech laying out the U.S.'s debt limit plan, as well as their thoughts on the global trend towards an economic downturn and the expanding debt issue in emerging markets.

Read Penta's latest ESI report here.

Today on What's at Stake, Bryan DeAngelis, partner at Penta based in Washington, D.C., is in London to interview two of the leaders of Penta's international financial services work, partners David Cook and Victoria Walsh. David and Victoria share how their experiences helping government institutions and businesses in Europe communicate around the biggest financial services developments in recent history–including the 2008 Financial Crisis–inform their thinking about stakeholder engagement. 

The group discusses the outlook for inflation, the recent turmoil in the banking sector, and the potential for changes in financial regulation around the world. Bryan, Victoria, and David also talk about how Penta's strategy and intelligence services can support financial services companies during these turbulent times.

On today's Macrocast, Ylan Mui, Brendan Walsh, and John Fagan discuss this morning's "Goldilocks" March jobs report and the not-too-hot, not-too-cool labor market. Later, the group explores the impact of OPEC's production cuts on gas prices, which are rising just in time for spring break season, and examines the potential risks associated with de-dollarization. Finally, this week's episode wouldn't be complete without a discussion of former President Trump's indictment and the subsequent market reaction.

Read Penta's March Jobs Day Fact Sheet here.

In this edition of What's at Stake, Andrea Christianson hosts Emily Duncan, senior vice president of federal affairs at American Electric Power (AEP), for a conversation on how AEP is taking on the complex challenges and opportunities facing the energy industry today.

Emily's career has spanned a range of key areas within the industry. Though she began her career in energy law; over the past 15 years, she has worked on legislative and regulatory issues in sectors like natural gas, nuclear, and electric power. In today's episode, Emily and Andrea discuss AEP's partnerships with communities and local stakeholders in the company's rural operating regions and how a diverse energy supply is key to guaranteeing reliable energy access across the U.S. Emily also outlines the potential of a new technology called bidirectional charging to transform the country's electric vehicle infrastructure.

Where does Emily see opportunities for more efficient use of the power grid? How is the CHIPS Act impacting energy supply chains? And for which energy source does Emily have a soft spot? Listen now to find out. 

The takeaway: the news is affecting consumer behavior, as indicated by major drops in confidence in the job market and in the overall U.S. economy. On today's Macrocast, Ylan, John, and Brendan host John Dick from Civic Science discuss the latest economic sentiment index, which shows that layoffs and banking crises in the headlines could be driving pessimism and lower spending among consumers. Later on, the group delves into tightening bank regulations as the Fed and FDIC tackle a shaken landscape.

Take a look at Penta's latest ESI analysis here.

On March 10, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapsed after what many are calling a bank run, triggering the second largest bank failure in U.S. history. Since then, regulators and policymakers have searched for answers, mid-sized banks across the country have struggled to assuage fears over their stability, and Swiss investment firm Credit Suisse has been taken over by UBS as the SVB fallout has rippled through the economy.

On this episode of What's at Stake, Bryan DeAngelis, a partner at Penta, and Ylan Mui, a managing director at the firm, are joined by Aaron Klein to discuss the impacts of SVB's collapse and–as Aaron sees it–the failure of our banking regulatory system. Aaron Klein is currently a senior fellow in Economic Studies at the Brookings Institution, focused on financial technology and regulation, payments, macroeconomics, and infrastructure finance and policy. Between 2009 and 2012, Klein served as the deputy assistant secretary for economic policy at the Department of Treasury, where he helped develop and secure the passage of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010.

The group discusses how the Fed failed to implement proper oversight of SVB, Michael Barr's pre-written testimony, and if we should be allowing more banks to fail. They also answer the question: Was this the first bank run of the social media age

Read more from Aaron Klein here.

On today's Macrocast, our new host Ylan Mui, managing director at Penta, sits down with John Fagan and Brendan Walsh of Markets Policy Partners to break down the Fed's latest 25 basis point rate hike. The trio points out that it was unique that Chairman Powell spoke so candidly about the Fed's uncertainty on how to adjust rates moving forward. Ylan, John, and Brendan discuss the state of the U.S. economy more broadly, including with respect to how the current commotion in the banking sector might spill over to other countries and sectors. The group finishes the episode by chatting about the odds of regulators taking action in the  banking sector, Yellen's testimony on Capitol Hill, and the state of the U.S. bond market.