The PetroNerds Podcast

Recorded on September 11, 2024 and July 12, 2024

Episode 115 of the PetroNerds podcast is another jam-packed PetroNerds special you are going to listen to, relisten to, and share. This is the keynote address that Trisha Curtis gave to IPANM, the Independent Petroleum Association of New Mexico in Albuquerque, New Mexico on July 12th, 2024.

This podcast is front-loaded with an energy-dense PetroNerdy market update covering everything from the softness and deterioration in oil prices, the Fed and inflation, weakness in the Chinese economy, lack of attention on geopolitics, and updates on the war in Ukraine, elections in the US, and Chinese power generation stats and CO2 emissions and much more!

In this keynote address and talk Trisha covers the current state of the Biden Administration, global elections, US oil production, the health of the US economy and the consumer, inflation and the non recession, the non-ESG friendly energy transition, whack-a-mole CO2 emissions, the real problems with China, Russia, Iran, the war in the Middle East, Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea, Chinese CO2 emissions and exports of cheap green tech, the resilience of US shale, and everything in between.

Make sure to check out the article Trisha Curtis published with Real Clear Energy as the Economist for the American Energy Institute: “America’s Energy Success has Nothing to do with the Biden Harris Administration” https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2024/09/03/americas_energy_success_has_nothing_to_do_with_the_biden-harris_administration_1055870.html and the US shale paper Trisha Curtis did for the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies that was published in their September 2024 Forum Journal. The paper is called “US Shale Oil – Relentlessly Resident” https://petronerds.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/US-Shale-Oil-Resiliency-PetroNerds-Trisha-Curtis-September-2024.pdf

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Recorded on August 16, 2024

In episode 114 of the PetroNerds podcast, Trisha Curtis, CEO of PetroNerds, is joined by Chris Brown, VP of Policy and Research at the Common Sense Institute, to discuss the recent report Trisha co-authored on Colorado’s declining energy competitiveness.

Energy is not just a sector of the economy; it is the sector upon which all businesses rely. Colorado, along with the rest of the US, has witnessed a dramatic escalation in electricity and natural gas prices, despite natural gas prices being near all-time lows, below $/mcf, for multiple months this year.

In this podcast, Trisha and Chris discuss the main themes of this report, including the rising electricity and natural gas prices in Colorado, which are making the state less competitive from an energy cost standpoint. They also discuss where electricity is coming from in Colorado and the direct correlation between rising electricity costs and the increase of wind power into the grid.

Finally, they talk about Colorado’s CO2 emissions, which account for less than 0.3 percent of global emissions, and how Colorado shutting down coal-fired power plants is actually enabling higher CO2 emission growth out of China, increasing the cost of electricity and power generation in Colorado, decreasing grid reliability, and reducing the affordability of energy in the state.

The data is damning and alarming, and folks in Colorado need to be reaching out to the PUC, Xcel, and their local representatives, demanding a halt to more wind and solar power being added to the grid at the expense of the Colorado consumer, taxpayer, and household. The report, along with all the detailed charts and analysis, can be found here: https://commonsenseinstituteco.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/CSI-Report-CO-Energy-Competitiveness.pdf.

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Recorded on August 14, 2024

Episode 113 of the PetroNerds podcast is a must listen to episode to get you caught up on everything happening in the economy, oil prices, geopolitics, and escalation globally in hot wars.

Trying to figure out why oil prices seem to want to go down even when wars in the Middle East and Europe continue to escalate? Saw the sell-off a couple of weeks ago when oil prices dropped to $72? Trisha Curtis has you covered. Trisha walks listeners through current oil prices and recent volatility, what is happening with Iran, the US, and Israel, and Ukraine’s penetration into Russia.

She spends the first half of the podcast diving into the economy, the freshly dropped CPI/inflation print, jobs cuts at Cisco and Intel, the Federal Reserve, unemployment ratcheting up to 4.3 percent, and interest rates. She pivots into geopolitics by talking about oil and why oil prices or real oil prices less the geopolitical risk premium are probably lower.

She covers the IEA and OPEC monthly reports released this week as well as housing and refinancing of mortgages in the US, and the biggest trends in the market right now including weakness in the US consumer and a slowing China. She also talks about the Chinese economy and breaks down some of the figures inside the US inflation read and much more. This is your one-stop shop folks! And lastly Trisha talks about recent podcasts, forthcoming podcasts, and upcoming public speaking engagements.

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Recorded on July 31, 2024 and June 21, 2024

Episode 112 of the PetroNerds podcast is the keynote address Trisha Curtis gave to AAPL, the American Association of Professional Landmen (Trisha still calls it Petroleum). This is an absolutely jam-packed energy-dense podcast filled with intel to get you up to speed on oil prices, the economy, geopolitics, and war.

Trisha dives into the push and pull on oil prices, what is driving prices up or holding prices up, what is pressuring prices down or keeping a lid on prices, geopolitics and hot wars, inflation and the consumer, the relationship between Iran, Russia, North Korea, and China and continued attacks in the Red Sea and their impact on the global economy and oil prices.

She gets into the changing political landscape in Europe and across the world, China’s lack of economic growth, China’s production of green tech, the poor understanding of oil and gas, and lack of market coverage of oil and gas, a very anti-domestic oil and gas Administration in America, a slowdown in consumer spending and the economy and the Fed, black swans, the health of the US consumer, and high prices and inflation pressuring the consumer, not interest rates.

She covers the Biden Admin on energy policies and SPR, Chinese EV exports, Chinese oil demand and stockpiling, weapons flows from Iran and North Korea to Russia, and non ESG friendly green tech from China. And last but not least she takes a dive into US shale and the resiliency of production with less rigs and longer laterals despite regulatory headwinds and consolidation.

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Recorded on July 16, 2024 and May 17, 2024

Episode 111 of the PetroNerds podcast is a true PetroNerds special. This is a recorded webinar with the Liquid Energy Pipeline Association (LEPA) hosted by Andy Black, President of LEPA and Tad True, VP of Bridger Pipeline, part of True Companies.

Andy Black and Tad True ask Trisha Curtis a series of market related questions ranging from the macro and oil prices to price differentials and the blowouts seen in the early days of the Bakken shale boom. Tad talks about when he met Trisha, around 2012, and what was happening in the market at the time and asks Trisha to reflect and weigh in.

If you have been wanting to hear about markets and midstream, this is the podcast you have been waiting for. Andy Black starts the webinar off by asking Trisha about the state of the oil market and the drivers in oil prices and Tad True gets Trisha in the weeds on crude flows, the history and evolution of US shale, and the major price differentials and blowouts seen in the Bakken in North Dakota and West Texas Intermediate in Cushing, Oklahoma. Trisha and Tad look back at the massive price differentials between WTI and Brent at the time and the rapid growth in crude by rail.

This is an awesome and incredible conversation you are not going to want to miss folks. Please like it, review it, and share it with your friends and colleagues.

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Recorded on June 19, 2024

Episode 110 of the PetroNerds podcast is a heavy hitting intel dense podcast on everything you need to know about the health of the US economy, the health of the US consumer, inflation, the Federal reserve, interest rates, and how it is all impacting oil prices.

Trisha Curtis walks listeners through the US economy and explains how the consumer is being tapped out by high prices and how inflation, not interest rates, are actually driving down inflation to a degree. She explains the impact of high prices on the consumer and what is happening with supposed interest rate cuts, the stock market, and unemployment and jobs. She gets into the type of jobs being added and why the economy and the consumer is not that healthy. She talks about the Consumer Sentiment Survey from Michigan and how it relates to the problems the Biden Administration is having on convincing the US populace that the economy is good and healthy.

Trisha talks about employment and job gains and the types of jobs being added and the lack of high paying jobs being added in the economy. Trisha gets into the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and the impact on goods prices, fuel cost. containers, and shipping times. Trisha talks about the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and oil prices and why the Biden Administration will likely tap the SPR again and lower oil prices before the election.

Trisha gets into the “non recession recession” and where the jobs gains are, where they are not, and the fact that a lot of job gains are being filled with immigration. She discusses the impact of immigration on GDP and inflation and housing. She closes this jam-packed PetroNerds podcast by talking about oil prices, risk, the macro, and what is driving oil prices up and down. She covers geopolitics and gets into Russia, North Korea, Iran, and China, Iran and the Houthis, and the push and pull on oil prices. She squeezes in some commentary on US oil production, less rigs, and longer laterals, and Russian and Saudi production and spare capacity.

This is an absolutely intelligence packed podcast that you are going to listen to and re-listen to, like, and share with your colleagues and friends.

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Recorded on May 16, 2024

Episode 109 of the PetroNerds podcast is a discussion on energy and energy policy with former Texas representative Jason Isaac. He joins Trisha Curtis in discussing the state of energy and energy policy in the US and the world. They talk about US electricity prices and natural gas prices, the US economy and inflation, energy transition, US oil and gas production, and China.

They also discuss the new think tank led by Mark Mills, the National Center for Energy Analytics (NCEA), where Trisha Curtis is now a Senior Fellow. Jason is the founder of the American Energy Institute and a Senior Fellow at the Texas Public Policy Foundation. This is the first of many energy policy discussions Trisha will be having in the coming months.

Trisha Curtis and Jason Isaac also wrote an op-ed together on Biden’s SPR moves and energy policy, which can be viewed here: https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/may/20/cost-of-biden-draining-our-strategic-petroleum-res/

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Recorded on April 30, 2024

Episode 108 of the PetroNerds podcast is another PetroNerds special. Trisha Curtis, CEO of PetroNerds, is joined by guest Sam Shiverick, CEO of Buckhorn Production. Buckhorn is a production company that purchased unconventional horizontal wells from an operator in New Mexico in the Permian Basin in 2020. This is an incredible conversation that highlights the longevity and future of US shale. Buckhorn is literally breathing new life into older unconventional assets and increasing output and showing just how profitable it can be.

Sam explains the history behind Buckhorn and his background in oil and gas and then Trisha and Sam get into the market dynamics and how Buckhorn is differentiated with a lower cost structure and much lower risk profile as it is not drilling and completing wells. They discuss the business model, older wells, methane, ESG, refracs, and a lot more.

This is Sam Shiverick’s first podcast. He is an incredible guest and PetroNerds cannot wait to have him back on the podcast.

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Recorded on May 1, 2024

Episode 107 of the PetroNerds podcast is a complete rip and review of the US economy, inflation, a weakening consumer, the Federal Reserve and interest rates, the Chinese economy, and oil prices and oil demand. Trisha Curtis, host of the PetroNerds podcast and CEO of PetroNerds, walks listeners through Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell’s speech on May 1st and the reality of inflation not being appreciated by the dovish Fed.

She goes through the poor earnings of stocks from Starbucks to McDonald’s, all based on declining sales on the back of inflation and a tapped out consumer. The impacts this has to oil demand and oil prices are very real, but ongoing hot wars, the Houthis continued attacks to ships in the Red Sea and Indian Ocean, Chinese tensions in the South China Sea, and Russia’s continued barrage against Ukraine are all keeping prices elevated.

Trisha closes the podcast with a number of newsworthy items including US production coming back above 13 mbd in February 2024, US CO2 emissions declining on the back of US natural gas, and much more. This is a jam packed podcast you are going to want to listen to twice and share with everyone you know!

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Recorded on April 18, 2024

Episode 106 of the PetroNerds podcast is your complete market update and round the world tour on what is happening in the oil market, energy, the global economy, and geopolitics. Trisha Curtis, CEO of PetroNerds and host of the PetroNerds podcast, takes listeners from natural gas prices in the US to the Middle East and back again. This podcast dives into the drivers for oil prices, the war in the Middle East and the Iranian strikes on Israel, Russia’s energy infrastructure targeting in Ukraine, OPEC spare capacity, US production of oil and natural gas, rising US electricity prices, stubborn US inflation, and the the lack of interest rates cuts by the US Federal Reserve.

This is a podcast you are going to want to relisten to and share with your friends and colleagues. In 53 minutes Trisha covers what is driving oil prices, natural gas production in the US and natural gas prices, geopolitics and war and Iran’s attack on Israel on April 13th, the SPR, global spare capacity, OPEC and Russian production vs. OPEC Plus targets, US production and lower US rig count and US activity, the complexity of high oil prices and low natural gas prices in the US, the Biden Administration’s stance on Iran and their unwillingness to enforce sanctions on Iran crude exports to China, electricity inflation in the US and power demand, and the impact of politics and policies on oil and gas prices in the US. Trisha gets into power generation and natural gas explaining that half of US power generation is coming from natural gas.

She talks about power generation and manufacturing, EVs and Hertz and the slowdown in sales and adoption of EVs, inflation and electricity prices and the $1.74 natural gas prices NOT being passed along to consumers, and Russian attacks on Ukraine and Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and power generation. She discusses the Fed, interest rates, no interest rate cuts, inflation, housing prices and mortgage rates, new home sales being down and housing prices being up, the demand for electricity and power generation by chip companies and bets on AI, the geopolitical angst within the market, and Russia, Iran, and China ties.

She closes the podcast by talking about the need for market intelligence and leadership in oil and gas, not just because it is the right thing to do, but because it is also the right thing to do for your shareholders. Trisha talks about politics and policies and raising energy IQ. She talks about the differences between Biden and Trump on oil and gas prices and infrastructure, regulations, and business.

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