In this week's Pod of Gold episode, Nicholas Frappell discusses the ‘war premium’ versus gold’s fair value, geographic threats around the Saudi peninsula, and how the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict will impact gold prices going forward.

Recorded at the International Mining and Resources Conference (IMARC)

PODCAST INFO:

OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.

(0:00) – Intro

(0:35) – Gold technical price targets

(1:30) – Downside targets

(2:09) – Gold's move higher

(4:05) – Is gold adjusting to the conflict?

(6:54) – What is gold's fair value?

(9:45) – How the conflict is impacting gold

(12:58) – Unlikely to see a rapid fall in gold

(14:24) – Managed money agnostic on gold

(16:00) – Key takeaways from the LBMA conference

(18:15) – Key takeaways from this episode

In this episode Nick Frappell discusses why gold's recent drop is the market accepting rates will be 'high for longer', why the Aussie dollar will remain under pressure for the foreseeable future and where gold might head to next.

PODCAST INFO:

OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.

(0:00) – Intro

(0:38) – A correction from last week

(2:03) – Gold's recent price moves

(9:50) – Gold price targets

(13:23) – Interest rate picture ahead

(18:45) – Silver discussion

(21:07) – Interest rate targets

(23:33) – Aussie dollar discussion

(28:20) - Chinese property sector weighing on the Aussie dollar

(31:44) - Key takeaways

In this episode we discuss the short term road blocks for gold and why silver still has room to run higher. We cover what the Fed will do between now December and take a look at the why 10yr Treasury divestment is really about the negative carry trade.

PODCAST INFO:

OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.

(0:55) – Spot gold bounces off US$1,904

(4:05) – Au trapped ahead of two major central bank meetings this week

(9:01) – Key price targets for gold

(11:57) – Silver: The industrial metal with constrained supply

(16:41) – Managed Money is neutral on silver

(18:20) – Has the US dollar rally played out?

(22:33) – The cost of defending the Yuan

(26:35) – Negative carry trade drives selling of US 10yr Treasuries

Recorded live at the Australian Gold Conference, Gold rallies but Managed Money isn't bullish, yet there's plenty of upside ahead for the yellow metal. Don't be too bearish on China just yet, the trade looks crowded and could surprise you. Plus Bank of Japan's yield curve control and how much lower will the Aussie dollar fall?

PODCAST INFO:

OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.

(0:50) – US dollar rolls off

(2:58) – Managed money isn’t bullish on the yellow metal

(4:14) – Multiple upside targets remain for gold

(7:12) – Journalist coverage suggest rate cuts are coming…

(8:37) - …but you should believe Powell

(9:29) - Betting against China could be a crowded trade

(13:40) – Consumption is trending down and it’s been happening for a long time

(17:57) – Chinese Communist Party likely to opt for micro support over the ‘big bazooka’ of stimulus

(22:38) – Aussie dollar is down, but support looks reasonable

Today we welcome special guest Jordan Eliseo, General Manager of ABC Bullion Australia to discuss the best gold event of 2023, what caused the gold price to pop higher and the technical indicators pointing to an uptrend in gold.

Plus! secure your ticket to ABC Bullion’s Precious Metals Forum 2023 ‘Gold & The Roaring 20s’

https://www.eventbrite.com.au/e/abc-bullion-precious-metals-forum-tuesday-22nd-august-ivy-ballroom-6pm-tickets-662647234717

Use code: PODOFGOLD for 20% off your ticket at checkout

PODCAST INFO:

OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.

(0:00) – Intro

(0:44) – Gold in the roaring 20s

(3:44) – Precious metals forum preview

(6:26) – Factors pushing the gold price higher

(8:57) – Retail sentiment of gold buyers

(11:10) – Gold in a positive uptrend

(13:25) – Gold price predictions for year end

(14:47) – Why this is an unmissable precious metals event

(15:43) – Key insights into precious metals

(16:50) - Getting to know Jordan Eliseo & Nick Frappell

(18:06) - How to join us at ABC Bullion's Precious Metals Forum 2023

Today we discuss gold’s moves ahead of The Fed's July meeting, ANZ Bank's forecast on the Silver market entering a period of tightness unseen for decades, and key targets to watch for the Aussie dollar.

PODCAST INFO:

OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.

(0:00) – Intro

(0:56) – Gold technical position

(5:09) – Managed money positioning

(8:21) – Short term price targets

(9:34) – Japan data analysis

(11:35) – ANZ Bank report - Silver demand to increase

(17:17) – Australian Dollar targets

(24:13) – Long term forecast for Gold

(25:25) – Key takeaways

Today we discuss gold’s recent dip to US$1,923, how investor interest is neither bullish nor bearish and we take a deep look at past exits from yield curve control and what pitfalls the Bank of Japan may face if they try to normalise policy.

PODCAST INFO:

(1:00) – Nick warned of gold's dip to US$1,923 last podcast

(2:39) – Spot gold hasn’t been too reactive to Russian events, though it may have provided support

(4:57) – Technical positioning

(6:24) – Short term bearish, long term bullish

(8:15) – Key Fibonacci level could provide support

(10:59) – Lessons from yield curve control exits

(12:57) – The Bank of Japan is on track for the good kind of inflation

(14:06) – BoJ would be aware of potential consequences after nine years of policy

(16:58) – US implemented YCC from 1942 to 1951

(19:01) – Reserve Bank of Australia’s exit tarnished its credibility

(21:58) – BoJ only central bank in the world in possession of every 2nd government bond issued

(23:11) – The prize of normalisation versus the risks of spillover effects

(24:02) – A grey swan event…and what is the most pressing risk

In this episode The Federal Reserve Bank pauses but assures the market there’s more hikes to come, the Aussie dollar hits its stride but does it have staying payer? Silver’s price moves remain tied to China’s slow moving economy and we have some very bullish price targets for gold.

Recorded at the Mines and Money Conference Melbourne - https://minesandmoney.com/melbourne/

PODCAST INFO:

OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.

In this episode we look at the reason’s behind gold’s pivot from 2075 back into the 1940s, how the markets appear to be pricing in a smooth debt ceiling negotiating, and what’s causing the Aussie dollar to fall.

PODCAST INFO:

OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.

In this episode we look at the ‘powerful macro themes and powerful macro risks’ providing support for gold, how US loan officers are tightening lending conditions in spite of some quantitative easing attempts and why gold could reach US$2,500.

PODCAST INFO:

OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.

· (1:18) – Key drivers supporting spot gold.

· (2:27) – Why central banks increased their gold positions in 2022.

· (6:07) – Fed offers a form of QE…

· (9:30) – …which butts up against QT as senior loan officers tighten lending conditions.

· (11:26) – Applying Taylor Rule: rates not as tight as the market thinks.

· (15:32) – US economy still runs a little hot.

· (17:44) – Financial system more leveraged than the past, impacting rate increases.

· (18:29) – The US debt ceiling could be a ‘grey swan’ event.

· (21:35) – An unresolved debt ceiling is ‘not impossible, but unthinkable’.

· (23:26) – Bank of Japan yield curve control.

· (27:22) – Nick overtly bullish on gold.