Sub-Saharan Africa’s government financing landscape has been transformed by credit markets, changing geopolitics, and new sources of capital. This special episode, produced in association with Mosaic Insurance, features Katharine Villers, political risk underwriter and head of commercial finance at Mosaic, and Nick James, director, structured finance at ICBC Standard Bank. They explore how the continent’s financing system has evolved, the changing geopolitics of capital, and the role that banks and insurers are playing in supporting investment and development.

How can political violence and terrorism insurers turn recent events into better underwriting insights? Recorded live at Lloyd’s during Verisk’s “Insuring Political Violence, SRCC, and Terrorism Forum”, this special episode brings together Alex Baker of Chaucer, Guy Burrows of Inigo and Torbjorn Soltvedt of Verisk Maplecroft. The panel explores the underwriting lessons emerging from recent geopolitical events, including the 2026 Iran war, changing targeting patterns and the sparks that can trigger strikes, riots and civil commotion. The discussion also examines data quality, predictive modelling, portfolio resilience, hybrid conflict, claims information and the tools underwriters need to navigate an increasingly complex political violence landscape.

Strikes, riots and civil commotion (SRCC) have moved from the margins of property and political violence portfolios into sharper focus for insurers and their reinsurers. This special episode with Lockton Re features senior catastrophe modeller George Wragg and consultant Paul Upton, along with Blackthorn head of advisory Jerry Smith. They discuss why the SRCC threat is important, the sociopolitical forces driving social unrest, how SRCC losses can accumulate across insurer portfolios, and the serious data and analytics challenges that face the early attempts at SRCC catastrophe risk modelling.

Forecasting phenomenon Dr John Hulsman returns to the podcast. John has made a name for himself as a pre-eminent predictor of geopolitical risk in the multipolar era. He prides himself on his ‘call record’, beating those of his rivals. We discuss Trump’s deal with Iran, the balance of power in the Middle East, political risk forecasting at the halfway point of 2026, the use of war gaming as a tool for corporate decision-makers, and the wider implications of deal-making, alliances and governance in a multipolar world.

President and managing partner of John C Hulsman Enterprises, John is a leading foreign policy analyst, forecaster and geopolitics consultant for corporations and governments around the world. He is author of more than a dozen other books, including his most recent “The Last Best Hope: A History of American Realism”. He previously served as fellow in European policy studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He was a senior research fellow in geopolitics and foreign policy at the Heritage Foundation, and he is a life member of the US Council on Foreign Relations.

Credit and political risk insurance has become a critical tool for mobilising capital into complex markets, supporting trade, investment and development finance through a period of heightened geopolitical and credit uncertainty. In this episode, Rafael Docavo-Malvezzi, global chief underwriting officer, political risk credit and bond at AXA XL, discusses the credit cycle, underwriting challenges, development finance and the role of the private market in supporting global investment. He also reflects on his career across risk management, economics and insurance, as well as his role as vice president of the Berne Union.

Geopolitical risk is putting global supply chains under renewed pressure, with the Strait of Hormuz crisis adding to existing concerns around trade disruption, tariffs and fragile logistics networks. Alec Russell, managing director, cargo for Arthur J Gallagher International, and Alex Vile, associate consultant, threat intelligence at AnotherDay, a Gallagher company, discuss how organisations are responding to supply chain risk in theory and practice. The conversation explores the immediate impact of Gulf tensions, the structural weaknesses exposed by recent disruption, and the role of insurance, crisis consulting and threat intelligence in building resilience. With nine-in-ten businesses experiencing a supply chain loss, this special episode, produced in association with Gallagher Specialty, examines what companies can do to prepare for the next crisis.

War in the Gulf in 2026 is a defining event for political violence. Underwriters face unprecedented claims activity, with individual Iranian missile and drone strikes accounting for hundreds of millions of dollars in damage, together representing more insured financial loss in just a few weeks than several years of the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Sandy Warne of Sukoon, Dan Callow of Starr, and Cosmo Warner of Price Forbes together discuss market reactions, capacity and pricing dynamics, regional exposure concerns and a rapidly evolving risk environment – as well as what’s likely covered or excluded by policies bought before the conflict.

The conversation is a shortened audio version of a recent webinar hosted by Global Reinsurance, which was named “Reinsurance in a Time of Escalating Tension”, available here. https://www.globalreinsurance.com/dwic-webinars/webinar-reinsurance-in-a-time-of-escalating-tension/1458331.article

Hotels are increasingly on the frontline of political violence and malicious risk, from terrorism and civil unrest to missile and drone attacks. In this special episode, Jeff Moore, PhD, CEO of Muir Analytics, explains how data-led underwriting and threat intelligence are reshaping how insurers and risk professionals understand and price these exposures. Drawing on case studies from the SecureHotel Threat Portal, the discussion explores why the hotel sector has become one of the most exposed global industries, and what that means for underwriting, risk mitigation and resilience in a volatile geopolitical environment.

Modern perils are colliding with modern assets, as drones and data centres reshape the risk landscape in real time. Blackthorn senior broker Thea Grootenhuis and head of advisory Jerry Smith explore how UAV-enabled attacks, critical infrastructure vulnerabilities, and a volatile geopolitical and malicious risk environment are converging. Drawing on live conflict dynamics in the Gulf, alongside lessons from Ukraine and other global hotspots, the discussion examines how disruption can quickly translate into business interruption and systemic risk. From the democratisation of drone technology to the growing concentration risk around data centres, the conversation asks what steps organisations should be taking now to stay ahead of emerging threats.

A special episode exploring the rise of active assailant risk and the growing demand for data-driven underwriting in a rapidly evolving threat landscape. Joshua Watson, senior underwriter, war and terrorism, North America, at Markel International, joins Gamze Tekin, senior product owner at Concirrus, to examine how this peril has moved to the forefront of crisis management and political violence insurance.

The discussion explores what makes active assailant risk distinct, from its frequency characteristics to its human and financial impact. Active assailant is a peril on the rise, with protection gaps facing corporate buyers, near-daily incidents taking place, and changing US state regulation on workplace violence.

Conversation turns to the underwriting challenges for a peril that is far removed from physical damage focus of most PV perils. Additional challenges include managing aggregation and portfolio exposure, and the limits of traditional data when assessing fast-moving, unpredictable threats.

The final section focuses on closing the data gap, from real-time risk visibility to AI-enabled underwriting tools designed to support better decision-making in complex scenarios. With attacks increasing, particularly in the US, this episode unpacks why active assailant risk is becoming one of the most pressing and technically challenging areas in specialty insurance today.