The Pollsters

Margie and Kristen return after a four-year hiatus! In this one-off episode, The Pollsters catch listeners up on their lives and review the performance of polls leading up to the 2024 Presidential Election. Did pollsters get it right? Or wrong? Or somewhere in-between?
Listen to find out!

Large Voter Turnout

Voter Turnout Appears Steady; Enthusiasm Running High (Gallup)

Who Will Win?

Who Do Voters Think Will Win (Navigator)

Cookie Poll

Three Brothers Bakery Presidential Cookie Poll Has Accurately Predicted Winner of Last 3 Elections (KHOU)

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Trump Job Approval

Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)

General Election

Presidential General Election (RealClear Politics)

Coronavirus

Coronavirus Upends Nation, as Three in Four Americans' Lives Changed by Pandemic (ABC News/Ipsos)

Governors Get High Marks For Handling COVID-19 Crisis (Monmouth)

Tracking Public Opinion on the Coronavirus (Morning Consult)

Public Opinion on Coronavirus (Navigator)

Axios-Ipsos Coronavirus Index: Everything's Worse (Axios/Ipsos)

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Florida Democratic Primary

Who Different Groups Supported (New York Times)

National Democratic Primary

National Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)

Trump Job Approval

Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)

General Election

General Election (RealClear Politics)

Coronavirus

Trump Earns Mixed Grades on Coronavirus Response (Politico/Morning Consult)

Coronavirus (NPR/PBS/Marist)

Coronavirus (Reutors/Ipsos)

Public Trusts Health Agencies More Than Trump (Axios)

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Democratic Primary

Florida Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)

National Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)

Biden Crushes Sanders In Democratic Race (Quinnipiac)

Trump Job Approval

Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)

General Election

General Election (RealClear Politics)

Approval of U.S. Congressional Republicans Tops Democrats (Gallup)

Coronavirus

Trump and the Coronavirus (CNN)

Americans Divided on Party Lines Over Risk From Coronavirus (Reuters/Ipsos)

Republicans are Twice as Likely as Democrats to View Coronavirus Coverage as Exaggerated (Axios/Survey Monkey)

About One-Fifth of Democrats and Republicans get Political News in a Kind of Media Bubble (Pew Research Center)

92% of Americans Dating as Normal Despite Coronavirus (OKcupid)

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Democratic Primary

National Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)

Florida Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)

Michigan Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)

Trump Approval

Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)

General Election

General Election (RealClear Politics)

Corona Beer and the Coronavirus

The Spread of the Coronavirus Couldn't Have Come at a Worse Time for Corona Beer(CNN)

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Democratic National Primary

Democratic National Primary (FiveThirtyEight)

South Carolina Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)

Debate Watchers Believe Bernie Sanders Made the Best Case for Defeating Trump (YouGov)

Trump Job Approval

Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)

General Election

General Election (RealClear Politics)

Republicans Increasingly Feel Like They’re ‘Winning’ Politically; Democrats Feel the Opposite (Pew Research Center)

Cornoavirus

How do Attitudes to Coronavirus Differ Across the World? (YouGov)

High Confidence in Government to Handle Coronavirus (Gallup)

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Democratic National Primary

Democratic National Primary (FiveThirtyEight)

Sanders Opens Up Double-Digit National Lead in Primary Race (NBC News/WSJ)

Sanders Leads The Field, Bloomberg Qualifies For His 1st Debate (NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist)

Nevada Primary

Nevada Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)

Sanders Has Strong Lead in Nevada(Data for Progress)

South Carolina Primary

South Carolina Democratic Primary(FiveThirtyEight)

Americans and the Election

Americans Generally Upbeat About Election Campaign (Gallup)

Faith in Elections in Relatively Short Supply in U.S. (Gallup)

Trump Job Approval

Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)

National General Election

National General Election(RealClear Politics)

Bogus Respondents

Assessing the Risks to Online Polls From Bogus Respondents (Pew Research Center)

Chucking a Dead Chicken

Is Chucking a Dead Chicken a Fun Bar Event or Disrespectful to Animals? (Thorold News)

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Democratic Primary

National Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)

Who's Ahead in New Hampshire (FiveThirtyEight)

Sanders Takes Top Spot In Dem Primary As Biden Falls (Quinnipac)

New Hampshire Democratic Primary Exit Poll Results and Analysis (Wash Post)

Trump Approval 

Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)

General Election

Trump vs. Klobucha (RealClear Politics)

Most Expect Trump Will Be Reelected (Monmouth)

Socialism and Atheism Still U.S. Political Liabilities (Gallup)

Impeachment Vote

Most Utahns pleased with Mitt Romney’s vote, but 60% of GOP has negative reaction (Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics)

Valentine’s Day

Valentine's Day poll: American's claim this dinner idea is most underrated (Instacart)

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On this 5th Anniversary episode, Kristen and Margie are joined by founder of FiveThirtyEight Nate Silver. Nate founded Five Thirty Eight after being tired of the media covering politics with a lack of data.

Iowa Primary

The three cover the topic of Iowa and how the polls should be looked at along with the actual results in Iowa. Nate breaks down Iowa’s system of using preferences in voting in their primary process and discusses how that makes Iowa difficult to poll.

The Des Moines Register, Ann Selzer poll was not published due to an error in polling. However, it was ended up being leaked prior to the Iowa Caucus. Nate believes that human error is a part of anything in life, even polling. In the case of the Ann Selzer poll he believes that the errors in the poll could have been fixed and published at a later date, instead of the chaos that ensued with the errors in the poll due to a tight deadline that was set.

Models in Polling

A model is a statistical algorithm that produces results. In polling models are statistics that are used to represent the world. Nate discusses the difficulties behind trying to build a model for the entire Democratic Nomination process. He shares that FiveThirtyEight focuses on predicting the outcome and as a result they focus more on topline numbers. 

The Silent Trump Vote

It has been claimed that silent Trump voters played a role in the 2016 election, Kristen asks Nate if silent or shy Trump voters could play a roll in the upcoming 2020 Presidential election. 

Find Nate Silver on Twitter @NateSilver538

Listen to the FiveThirtyEight Podcast Here!

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