The Pomp Letter

To investors,

Don’t read mainstream financial news headlines today. If you do, you will be told the world is ending and the market is crashing. You will see doom and gloom everywhere. If you aren’t careful, you may believe that asset prices are destined to fall forever and your portfolio will never recover.

This is all nonsense though.

Another way to describe the current market is that the S&P 500 is flat over the last 6 months.

That is right — insane! Traditional investors are freaking out in recent weeks, yet the stock market is still slightly positive over the last 180 days. Not exactly the big market crash that you were programmed to believe.

But maybe the S&P 500 is an outlier.

What about the Nasdaq 100? Also slightly up in the last 6 months.

Maybe the Dow Jones Industrial Average is different? Nope. That index is up 1.4% in the last 180 days.

Think of how absurd this is — Wall Street is not freaking out because they lost money in the last 6 months, but rather because they didn’t make an absurd amount of money.

The story gets even crazier if you look past stocks though.

Gold is up 15% over the last 6 months.

Bitcoin is up 43% over the same time period.

“Zoom out” is a common phrase repeated by investors who are holding assets that are going down in price, but these investors are usually talking about multi-year timeframes. Zooming out to the last 6 months tells a very different story than what is being portrayed in the mainstream media.

But lets say you think 6 months is an unfair time period to evaluate. The big, bad market crash has been happening in recent days, right?

Let’s define a market crash if we want to try to identify it.

According to Perplexity, my favorite AI search engine, “a stock market crash is typically declared when there is a sudden, steep decline in stock prices across a major index or market, often exceeding 10% within a single day or over a few days.”

Obviously the S&P 500 has crashed in recent days, correct? Wrong! The S&P is not even down 4% in the last 5 days.

The major index hasn’t fallen 10% in the last month either. So much for that big market crash.

In fact, none of the three major indexes have fallen more than 5% in the last 5 trading days. The traditional definition of a 10% drawdown being a crash has not been met, so all the hysteria is misplaced.

Creative Planning’s Peter Mallouk points out “the S&P 500 is down over 8% from its February closing high. Over the last 75 years, the average intra-year market drop has been close to 14%.”

We aren’t even close to the average intra-year drop yet.

Maybe you think President Trump is worried about the recent price volatility? It appears he is unfazed by what is happening. Here he is telling the media that markets go up and down:

The stock market may have gone up and down, but it is flat over the last 6 months. Not a bad trade considering inflation has dropped 50% in the last 60 days and items like gas, eggs, and other staple consumer items are quickly falling to more affordable levels.

Remember, we are up 153% since COVID and 646% since the Global Financial Crisis.

Next time someone starts complaining about the market “crashing,” remind them you aren’t allowed to complain if you are still making money in the last 6 months. And you definitely aren’t allowed to complain if you are outperforming the stock market average for more than a decade.

Hope you all have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

Jack Mallers Thinks Bitcoin Is Going Much Higher

Jack Mallers is the Founder & CEO of Strike. This conversation was recorded at Bitcoin Investor Week in New York.

In this conversation we evaluate nation state adoption of bitcoin, what happens when US starts to accumulate bitcoin, how bitcoin can help Americans, operating on a bitcoin standard as a private company, bitcoin cycles, regulation, Wall Street, and what Jack thinks the future of bitcoin looks like.

Enjoy!

Podcast Sponsors

* Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit here to learn more.

* Reed Smith - Smart legal solutions for complex disputes, transactions, and regulations. Learn more at www.reedsmith.com.

* Franzy - Ready to leave the 9-to-5, start a side hustle, or expand your portfolio? Franzy is your gateway to franchise ownership—research, compare, and fund the right opportunity with confidence and transparency.

* Bitwise - America’s largest crypto index fund manager and the only Bitcoin ETF issuer that publishes its wallet address plus donates 10% of profits to open source developers. Learn more at BitwisePomp.com

* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.

* Bitdeer - A global technology company focused on Bitcoin mining, ASIC development and HPC for AI, backed by advanced R&D and a massive 2.5 GW global power portfolio.

* BitcoinOS - The operating system for bitcoin applications powered by zero-knowledge technology. Check out @BTC_OS on twitter to learn more.

* Gemini - The future is being built today. Go Where Dollar’s Won’t. With Gemini.

* Xapo - Xapo Bank is the only way to bank with Bitcoin.

* Polkadot - a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Innovation leader, making it a preferred choice for big names.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren't finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

To investors,

The big question in financial markets over the last two weeks has been “is Donald Trump intentionally trying to tank the US stock market?”

This would have been an absurd question before the inauguration. The general thought process was President Trump is a businessman and investor. He measures the health of the US economy through the stock market performance, so you can expect the stock market to go up if Trump becomes President.

I know this was the consensus because I believed it too.

There was no obvious reason why Trump would allow the US stock market to drop, let alone take actions to crash the market himself.

But that is exactly what is happening now.

Here is President Trump talking over the weekend about his plan to get interest rates and energy down:

Kris Patel and Amit Is Investing highlight how this plan works:

1. We have $7T of debt we need to pay in the next 6 months…if we don’t pay it, we’ll have to refinance.

2. The Trump admin does NOT want to refinance at a 4%+ rate…the 10yr at one point this year was 4.8%.

3. How do you get the 10yr to come down? Markets need to show weakness in growth, DOGE has to be perceived as actually working, interest rates need to come down.

The way to do that is to create massive uncertainties — aka tariffs — which can slow down growth in the short term, get the bond market to start BUYING bonds ASAP because of how scared they are of touching stocks (causing yields to fall which is what we need to refinance the debt) and then that gives the Fed the authority to lower rates which continues to bring yields down.

So, although conventional wisdom says tariffs are inflationary and the 10yr should be spiking on more tariffs — it’s actually going down because its bringing so much uncertainly to equity markets that people are selling stocks and buying bonds! Which is exactly what the Trump administration wants to happen in the short term in order to bring refinancing costs down.

Now this is not the easy way to get interest rates down. The easy way was to have the Federal Reserve cut interest rates at the start of the year, but that didn’t happen.

In fact, many of you may remember that Trump kept telling Jerome Powell to cut interest rates last year. Powell was public in his defiance of Trump’s request, so now Trump and Scott Bessent are taking matters into their own hands.

They are crashing asset prices in an attempt to force Jerome Powell to cut interest rates. We will see who blinks first.

Don’t believe me? Here is Trump explicitly saying you can’t watch the stock market right now:

So the entire administration has their eyes on the 10-year Treasury yield. But even without Powell stepping up to the plate and slashing interest rates, we have already seen the 10-year drop from 4.8% in January to 4.25% this weekend.

That is a good start. We are going to need much more movement on interest rates though if we want to have a profound impact on our refinancing costs.

Lower interest rates don’t merely affect the US government though. The drop in interest rates since the start of the year have helped drop mortgage rates as well. Kris Patel points out “as interest rates decline, more buyers will emerge, but so will many sellers. We need the housing market to thaw.”

Housing is not the only game in town that benefits from lower interest rates. Perplexity, my favorite AI search engine, explains:

“Lower interest rates generally benefit American consumers by reducing borrowing costs, making it cheaper to finance large purchases such as homes, cars, or education through loans or mortgages. This can also increase disposable income, encouraging spending on big-ticket items and boosting economic activity”

So how many interest rate cuts can we expect in 2025? Prediction market Kalshi says the market has increased its expected number of rate cuts. It now gives >75% odds of two or more cuts this year.

Kalshi is also showing a 38% chance of a recession this year.

So is Donald Trump, Scott Bessent, Howard Lutnick and the current administration trying to pull down asset prices? Absolutely.

They claim to be focused on Main Street over Wall Street. The big goal is to get interest rates down, which will lead to more economic activity thanks to the access to cheap capital.

This is not your grandfather’s economy. And this is not your grandfather’s economic policy. No wonder there is so much controversy over the strategy — people hate new things, especially when they are bold bets coming from one side of the political aisle.

But if we end up with lower interest rates and can somehow avoid a recession, then we will all have to tip our cap to the current leadership team. I don’t envy their position. Something new has to be done since we can’t continue on the path we are on. Let’s all hope this plan works. Millions of Americans are depending on it.

Have a great start to your week. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

Why Bitcoin Crashed After Trump Strategic Reserve News

Jordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience. He also writes a Substack called “VisserLabs” and puts out investing YouTube videos.

In this conversation we talk about what is going on with tariffs, how it’s impacting the economy, how to think about the bitcoin strategic reserve, and what investors are currently thinking about.

Enjoy!

Podcast Sponsors

* Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/

* Reed Smith - Smart legal solutions for complex disputes, transactions, and regulations. Learn more at www.reedsmith.com.

* Franzy - Ready to leave the 9-to-5, start a side hustle, or expand your portfolio? Franzy is your gateway to franchise ownership—research, compare, and fund the right opportunity with confidence and transparency.

* Bitwise - America’s largest crypto index fund manager and the only Bitcoin ETF issuer that publishes its wallet address plus donates 10% of profits to open source developers. Learn more at BitwisePomp.com

* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.

* Bitdeer - A global technology company focused on Bitcoin mining, ASIC development and HPC for AI, backed by advanced R&D and a massive 2.5 GW global power portfolio.

* BitcoinOS - The operating system for bitcoin applications powered by zero-knowledge technology. Check out @BTC_OS on twitter to learn more.

* Gemini - The future is being built today. Go Where Dollar’s Won’t. With Gemini.

* Xapo - Xapo Bank is the only way to bank with Bitcoin.

* Polkadot - a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Innovation leader, making it a preferred choice for big names.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren't finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

To investors,

President Trump signed an Executive Order last night in the Oval Office to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. This is a monumental milestone for bitcoin — the nation states have officially arrived.

There have been a few countries like El Salvador and Bhutan that previously embraced the digital currency, but America is the big dog and their entrance into the global accumulation race marks a new era.

Here is Trump signing the Executive Order, which David Sacks describes as a “digital Fort Knox for digital gold”:

The details of the Executive Order were written in a near perfect way too. First, the United States is going to use the ~ 200,000 coins already in their possession as the seed capital for the strategic reserve. This decision makes the US government one of the largest holders of bitcoin globally.

You can see in the language used that the author of the Executive Order understood bitcoin. They explicitly call out bitcoin as digital gold, they reference the fact that bitcoin has never been hacked, and they highlight the digital scarcity created by bitcoin’s 21 million coin limit.

But the Executive Order did not stop there.

The US government is also opening the door for Scott Bessent and Howard Lutnick to purchase more bitcoin over time. The specific language in the EO says “the Secretaries of Treasury and Commerce are authorized to develop budget-neutral strategies for acquiring additional bitcoin, provided that those strategies have no incremental costs on American taxpayers.”

You have to hand it to the administration — this is a perfect balancing act.

They figured out a way to buy more bitcoin without requiring more taxpayer dollars to do it. This strategy alleviates the concerns of critics who didn’t want to see the US government increasing spending to buy a digital asset. But the strategy also appeals to bitcoiners who were concerned the United States would merely put the 200,000 existing coins in the reserve, but not work to acquire more bitcoin over time.

Win-win situation.

So where do we go from here? I believe there are a few important points to keep an eye on. First, the President and his team were able to construct a plan that explicitly called out the difference between bitcoin and the altcoins. They aren’t going to be abrasive to ETH, SOL, XRP, and ADA — they will actually be supportive of them via a digital asset stockpile — but the US is not going to work to accumulate more altcoins through open market purchases.

Second, the United States has a lot of options at their disposal to find money to buy more bitcoin. The Treasury Secretary was on CNBC this morning and explained how he views buying more bitcoin. Take a listen:

It sure sounds like the United States is going to continue buying more bitcoin over time.

Third, and maybe most importantly, the US government just put the global accumulation race for bitcoin into hyperdrive. Every country in the world has now been put on notice that nation states are trying to accumulate as many of the 21 million coins as they can.

Interestingly, the price of bitcoin did not skyrocket on news of the Executive Order. We saw the price dump instead because the general public seemed disappointed that the US did not announce a monster buy of bitcoin to go with the announcement. But I view the price decline as a perfect example of how markets don’t understand nuance and this will likely be seen as a moment of arbitrage in hindsight.

If you had asked me 8 or 9 years ago what would be the most bullish development for bitcoin, the idea of the US government buying bitcoin would have been near the top of the list. Fast forward about a decade and here we are — it is almost unbelievable.

The federal government is now hoarding the hardest money ever created. US states are going to quickly follow, along with foreign countries. There have been few times in history where individuals were able to front run government for a financial asset, but that is the beauty of bitcoin.

The digital currency is available to anyone with an internet connection. It doesn’t matter how much money you have, what language you speak, or what school your parents went to. You just need the ability to think independently and act boldly.

On this historic milestone, I can’t help but think about how crazy this whole thing has been. Satoshi invented the perfect solution to one of the hardest problems in the world. That solution was met with abrasiveness and critiques from people around the world. But in a free market where the best ideas win, bitcoin continues to succeed in the face of adversity and now the United States has capitulated.

Bitcoin is winning.

Just make sure that you are gracious in victory. There are still billions of people who need to learn about bitcoin and the economic freedom it can provide. The job is not finished yet. I can’t wait to see what else we can all accomplish together.

Hope you have a great weekend. I’ll talk to everyone on Monday.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

Can Bitcoin Save America? with Vivek Ramaswamy

Vivek Ramaswamy is an American Entrepreneur, New York Times Bestselling Author & Former Republican U.S. Presidential Candidate. He is also the co-founder of Strive Asset Management and running to be the governor of Ohio.

This conversation was recorded at Bitcoin Investor Week in New York. In this conversation we talk about how bitcoin is a new era for the United States, how bitcoin and leadership can drive excellence, Vivek’s plan for Ohio, DOGE, and how citizens can help.

Enjoy!

Podcast Sponsors

* Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/

* Reed Smith - Smart legal solutions for complex disputes, transactions, and regulations. Learn more at www.reedsmith.com.

* Franzy - Ready to leave the 9-to-5, start a side hustle, or expand your portfolio? Franzy is your gateway to franchise ownership—research, compare, and fund the right opportunity with confidence and transparency.

* Bitwise - America’s largest crypto index fund manager and the only Bitcoin ETF issuer that publishes its wallet address plus donates 10% of profits to open source developers. Learn more at BitwisePomp.com

* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.

* Bitdeer - A global technology company focused on Bitcoin mining, ASIC development and HPC for AI, backed by advanced R&D and a massive 2.5 GW global power portfolio.

* BitcoinOS - The operating system for bitcoin applications powered by zero-knowledge technology. Check out @BTC_OS on twitter to learn more.

* Gemini - The future is being built today. Go Where Dollar’s Won’t. With Gemini.

* Xapo - Xapo Bank is the only way to bank with Bitcoin.

* Polkadot - is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Innovation leader, making it a preferred choice for big names.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren't finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

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To investors,

Rumors continue to circulate about the White House Crypto Summit planned for this Friday in Washington DC. This will be the first time industry leaders meet in a public setting with the President’s working group to discuss key issues related to bitcoin and the cryptocurrency industry.

One of the main topics of conversation leading up to this meeting has been the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. President Trump promised on the campaign trail that he would implement a bitcoin-only reserve, but more recently posted online that a crypto-related reserve would include altcoins like ETH, SOL, XRP, and ADA.

The backlash on the proposed bait-and-switch was loud and swift. Most people in the crypto industry, including those who hold some of the altcoins mentioned, agreed the country’s strategic reserve should be bitcoin only. As I wrote earlier this week, there is nothing strategic for the US with the altcoins.

But it looks like the administration understands this point.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick gave an interview earlier today and explicitly called out the different treatment of bitcoin. He shared the following statement with The Pavlovic media outlet:

“The President definitely thinks that there’s a Bitcoin strategic reserve. Now, there will be the question of, how do we handle the other cryptocurrencies? And I think the model is going to be announced on Friday when we do that.

A Bitcoin strategic reserve is something the President’s interested in. He spoke about it all during the campaign trail, and I think you’re going to see it executed on Friday.

So Bitcoin is one thing, and then the other currencies, the other crypto tokens, I think, will be treated differently—positively, but differently.”

This is an important development in the broader conversation. If the United States creates a strategic bitcoin reserve, without the altcoins, then most bitcoiners will feel like Trump delivered on his campaign promise.

Does that mean he will be abrasive towards the other coins? No, not at all. He can be supportive of other coins without putting them in the country’s strategic reserve.

My guess is that is where we end up, but we will learn more on Friday.

In the meantime, there are a few trends worth paying attention to across the bitcoin network. For example, the balances on exchanges continues to plummet, which suggests bitcoin holders are unwilling to sell their bitcoin at these levels.

Prices will have to substantially increase in order to unlock more liquidity from the long-term holders. What could drive that substantial increase in price?

More buying from various sources.

You can see here the ETFs continue to accumulate more bitcoin regardless of the price action. The collective funds started with approximately 650,000 bitcoin in January 2024 and today hold nearly 1,140,000 bitcoin for various investors.

The ETFs are not the only buyers either. Take a look at Japan’s Metaplanet. They continue to acquire as much bitcoin as possible for their balance sheet, including 497 bitcoin in the last 24 hours.

That number 497 is important because that means one company bought more than 100% of all the new bitcoin that was created yesterday and put into circulation. It doesn’t take a genius to realize the price has to go up if people and companies are buying more bitcoin each day than what is being created.

Supply and demand is one hell of a concept. This brings us back to the White House Crypto Summit on Friday — if the United States announces a strategic bitcoin reserve that includes the nation buying more bitcoin, all bets are off on what could happen to the digital assets’ price.

There will be a lot of speculation between now and Friday. But something tells me we are going to get fireworks in DC to close out the week.

Hope you all have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

Darius Dale Explains Why The Government May Be Crashing The Market On Purpose

Darius Dale is the Founder & CEO of 42Macro.

In this conversation we talk about global liquidity, what’s going on with inflation expectations, why the government may be tanking the market for a foundation of strength, and how this impacts asset prices.

Enjoy!

Podcast Sponsors

* Reed Smith - Smart legal solutions for complex disputes, transactions, and regulations. Learn more at www.reedsmith.com.

* Franzy - Ready to leave the 9-to-5, start a side hustle, or expand your portfolio? Franzy is your gateway to franchise ownership—research, compare, and fund the right opportunity with confidence and transparency.

* SimpleMining -

* Bitwise - America’s largest crypto index fund manager and the only Bitcoin ETF issuer that publishes its wallet address plus donates 10% of profits to open source developers. Learn more at BitwisePomp.com

* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.

* Bitdeer - A global technology company focused on Bitcoin mining, ASIC development and HPC for AI, backed by advanced R&D and a massive 2.5 GW global power portfolio.

* BitcoinOS - The operating system for bitcoin applications powered by zero-knowledge technology. Check out @BTC_OS on twitter to learn more.

* Gemini - The future is being built today. Go Where Dollar’s Won’t. With Gemini.

* Xapo - Xapo Bank is the only way to bank with Bitcoin.

* Polkadot is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Innovation leader, making it a preferred choice for big names.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren't finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

To investors,

We have entered the Age of Economic Chaos. It seems like each day brings a new announcement, a new decision, or a new action. Rather than a simple, predictable plan being executed, President Trump and his administration are moving fast and breaking things.

His critics see this strategy as detrimental to the US economy and America’s position globally. His supporters are applauding the President for following through on what he promised while on the campaign trail. They want the swamp drained of the bureaucracy, government waste ended, and an America First strategy that rolls back the globalist agenda from the last 50 years.

Let’s look at the last 24 hours as an example of how this is playing out.

The White House confirmed last night that President Trump has suspended all military aid to Ukraine amid the disagreement with Ukraine’s Zelenskiy. The United States is seeking a mineral rights deal that will ensure repayment for the hundreds of billions of dollars that is being sent to support Ukraine, while the European country continues to demand security agreements and other onerous terms. This decision to pause military aid was a surprise to the market and created another news cycle filled with fear, which doesn’t help to calm investors.

According to Perplexity, investors are worried because freezing aid “could potentially escalate the conflict and increase geopolitical instability, which often leads to market volatility and economic uncertainty. Additionally, this move might signal a shift in US foreign policy that could have broader implications for international trade relationships and global security alliances, factors that significantly influence investor confidence and financial markets worldwide.”

As if that wasn’t enough, Trump confirmed he will impose the 25% tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico, along with an additional 10% tariff on China, starting at midnight last night. These penalties had been threatened for weeks, but many were holding out hope for a last minute deal — instead of getting that deal, the US government is moving forward with the tariffs as a way to exert pain on our largest trading partners. Stocks immediately fell after Trump confirmed the tariffs would be implemented and the S&P 500 is now negative year-to-date.

You can actually watch the stock market fall while Trump is speaking about tariffs in this video:

Just these two developments would be enough news for weeks of analysis in any other administration. Add in the fact that the stock market is crashing and you can understand why hysteria has started to take over.

But we were just warming up yesterday. And not all the news was bad.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company held a press conference with President Trump, AI czar David Sacks, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. The company announced plans to invest an additional $100 billion in the United States by building 5 new manufacturing facilities and creating at least 20,000 American jobs.

Trump’s supporters will argue this investment from TSMC is a result of the tariff threat, while his detractors will point to Biden’s CHIPS Act as the main driver. The truth is that both Presidents are likely to be partially responsible. Regardless of who gets the credit, American citizens should be excited about the prospect of more investment, more domestic manufacturing, and more jobs.

So what is going on here?

It feels like every 24 hour period brings a flurry of good and bad news. It seems to the untrained eye that action is the goal, rather than results. But I want to make a different argument — I want to lay out a scenario where the President and his team are intentionally cratering the economy and the stock market to reset the foundation on which to build upon.

Kyla Scanlon pointed out that one user on X named Fischer King posted in October of last year the following:

“If Trump succeeds in forcing through mass deportations, combined with Elon hacking away at the government, firing people and reducing the deficit - there will be an initial severe overreaction in the economy - this economy propped up with debt (generating asset bubbles) and artificially suppressed wages (as a result of illegal immigration). Markets will tumble. But when the storm passes and everyone realizes we are on sounder footing, there will be a rapid recovery to a healthier, sustainable economy. History could be made in the coming two years.”

This innocuous post got a reply from Elon Musk who said “sounds about right.”

This begs the question — why would a President and his team intentionally hurt the economy or the stock market? The answer is a little more complicated.

Cem Karsan had the best breakdown of anyone:

If you didn’t already understand the current White House’s approach from their budget, Bessent is telling you loud & clear, if you care to listen. This is what he is saying in plain English:

They want to slow demand in the real economy & hence slow inflation, by distributing less to people, via slowing wage growth and less social services to American’s in the median income on down.

How?

* Cut Government Employment

* Cut Medicare

* Cut Snap Food assistance and School Lunches

* Cut Low income Housing Assistance

Then, as these cuts take hold in the next 3-6 months… they plan to in Equal amounts Increase supply side stimulus to get ‘private Industry moving,’ this will send money to the top 0.1% of the top wage earners. Not increasing inflation, while stimulating economic growth.

How?

* Massive Corporate Tax Cuts

* Gut the IRS and corporate financial oversight to reduce taxes further.

* Deregulate to allow corporations to operate untethered to increase profitability.

* Drill baby Drill

The demand side policies take effect quicker than the supply side, So… as cyclical deflation takes hold in 6 months or so… they plan to respond quickly with:

Loose Monetary Policy switching back from QT-> QE

This is a highly complex strategy that may or may not work. But one thing is becoming clear — the Trump administration is going to take a run at implementing the plan regardless of what anyone else thinks.

The thing about these policies is that receptivity and enthusiasm really boils down to whether someone is a fan of Donald Trump or not. Ben Carlson had a great meme that explained the different viewpoints perfectly — critics call it crashing the economy, while supporters call it lowering mortgage rates.

The truth is that both can be true at the same time. And you may think that everyone will be upset if the economy collapses, but I don’t agree. Spencer Hakimian said it well when he described the working class cheering for a market downturn:

“I get this sense that because the economy over the past 4 years was so K Shaped - amazing for asset owners, the upper class, etc., but so lukewarm/mediocre for the working class/wage class, that there is a large cohort of the country that is hoping Trump tanks financial markets and the economy as well so that we are all suffering together. Misery loves company. Relative status is so deeply rooted in human evolutionary psychology.”

So you can think of Trump’s policies as a way to play to his newfound working class base in a weird way. Get stocks and mortgage rates lower. Give these people access to financial assets or primary homes that were previously unavailable to them from an affordability standpoint.

I am not arguing that these are good ideas, but merely commenting on what seems to be playing out. The market downturn is being promised as short-term pain in exchange for long-term benefit. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was on television this morning explaining how the focus is on Main Street and consumers rather than Wall Street:

We will see if that is actually what happens. But one thing is guaranteed — change is happening and chaos is an intended outcome. I liked X user Goodstructure’s explanation of the pain — “always a little pain when daddy takes the credit card away.”

With this as the backdrop, it makes sense that odds on prediction market Kalshi currently sit at 40% for a recession this year.

You may not expect the President of the United States to crash the US economy on purpose, but that is what appears to happen. Hopefully this is a healthy correction that allows us to rebuild on a stronger base, but either way — put your seatbelt on.

We are in for a bumpy ride.

Hope everyone has a great day. I’ll talk to you all tomorrow.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

Darius Dale Explains Why The Government May Be Crashing The Market On Purpose

Darius Dale is the Founder & CEO of 42Macro.

In this conversation we talk about global liquidity, what’s going on with inflation expectations, why the government may be tanking the market for a foundation of strength, and how this impacts asset prices.

Enjoy!

Podcast Sponsors

* Reed Smith - Smart legal solutions for complex disputes, transactions, and regulations. Learn more at www.reedsmith.com.

* Franzy - Ready to leave the 9-to-5, start a side hustle, or expand your portfolio? Franzy is your gateway to franchise ownership—research, compare, and fund the right opportunity with confidence and transparency.

* SimpleMining -

* Bitwise - America’s largest crypto index fund manager and the only Bitcoin ETF issuer that publishes its wallet address plus donates 10% of profits to open source developers. Learn more at BitwisePomp.com

* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.

* Bitdeer - A global technology company focused on Bitcoin mining, ASIC development and HPC for AI, backed by advanced R&D and a massive 2.5 GW global power portfolio.

* BitcoinOS - The operating system for bitcoin applications powered by zero-knowledge technology. Check out @BTC_OS on twitter to learn more.

* Gemini - The future is being built today. Go Where Dollar’s Won’t. With Gemini.

* Xapo - Xapo Bank is the only way to bank with Bitcoin.

* Polkadot is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Innovation leader, making it a preferred choice for big names.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren't finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

To investors,

The big news over the weekend was President Trump announced his intention to create a crypto strategic reserve for the United States. While there were plenty of surprises in the details of how this will be implemented, the idea of a crypto-related reserve had been rumored for weeks.

Trump posted on Truth Social the following message:

The internet immediately exploded in hot takes, but the most popular response was whether this crypto reserve would include bitcoin or not because Trump’s post on Truth Social did not explicitly name the largest crypto asset.

Within minutes, Trump posted again to clarify that bitcoin and ethereum would be included in the crypto reserve as well.

It is important to call out that we don’t have all the details on the administration’s plan yet. We can only go off of what we have been told — it will be crucial everyone keeps an open mind until we have more information.

With that said, there is a lot to unpack in this development, so lets start with the historical context. President Trump promised the bitcoin community that he would create a strategic bitcoin stockpile while speaking at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville last year. There was no mention of other crypto assets being included in the reserve.

Various people will claim that Trump made a promise on the campaign trail and now he is fulfilling it — I completely disagree.

And I say this as someone who stands to substantially benefit financially from the announcement over the weekend. Even though Solana is our second largest crypto position, and various public equities I hold are heavily correlated to altcoins, I still think this decision on a wide-ranging crypto strategic reserve is an unforced error that will be regretted in the future.

Instead of the United States creating a reserve of hard money, which has strategic importance due to the finite supply, the relationship with low-cost energy, and the backing of the strongest computer network in the world, we seem to be getting a random smattering of speculative tools that will enrich the insiders and creators of these coins at the expense of the US taxpayer.

See here is the thing — the United States is not in the business of buying stocks or other investment assets. Maybe the soon-to-be-formed sovereign wealth fund will do that, but there is no precedent for the government to play capital allocator in this way. Instead, the US has strategic reserves of assets like gold, oil, cheese, and other assets that are important to the strength of our balance sheet or have national importance.

Crypto tokens like ETH, SOL, XRP, and ADA don’t fit that framework. These tokens are more akin to technology stocks, rather than hard money or natural commodities.

If the United States is willing to put these tokens on their balance sheet, we should also be willing to put stock from Amazon, Facebook, Tesla, Palantir, and Gamestop. If we are speculating on capital appreciation, we can even add LP interests in Blackstone, Citadel, Millennium, Tiger Global, Sequoia, Andreessen Horowitz, and your favorite real estate or private credit fund.

We obviously wouldn’t put those stocks or funds on the country’s balance sheet, so we shouldn’t put these altcoins on the balance sheet either. There is nothing strategic about ETH, SOL, XRP, or ADA.

This begs the question — how did we get here? How did the President of the United States get swindled into announcing a shitcoin fund?

The answer will probably surprise you. See, the crypto industry is a magnified version of the traditional finance industry. Anything you can find on Wall Street, you will find in crypto but on steroids.

The perfect example is what just happened. We watched crypto projects, lobbyists, and special interest groups co-opt the President of the United States. There pitch was perfectly laid out. They told the President that any crypto-related reserve should hold tokens that were “made in America.” This pitch was the perfect trap for a President who ran on the America First agenda.

How do I know? Because numerous people who met with the President told me that was their pitch. I remember thinking to myself when I heard their pitch — “I hate how good that probably sounds to the President.” I never thought the pitch would actually work though. My belief was the President is surrounded by too many people who deeply understand bitcoin and the geopolitical importance of the asset.

It appears I was wrong in that assumption.

You have to hand it to these crypto projects and their ecosystems — they understood exactly how to appeal to President Trump and his administration. The “America First” agenda was weaponized to provide exit liquidity using taxpayer dollars for crypto businesses.

The crypto projects that are being included in the reserve didn’t hire the boring K Street lobbyists who wear cheap suits and work the political system like a cocktail party. They were much more blatant. These organizations had their leadership teams meet directly with the President, his family, and the administration.

If you want something done, I guess you have to do it yourself.

But here is the thing — the crypto strategic reserve in its current form is a horrible precedent to set. I would understand if these assets were put into the sovereign wealth fund (although I would disagree with that decision). But adding these crypto tokens to the balance sheet of the United States makes no sense.

I know some people are arguing the government has found a strategic argument to do this, but I just don’t buy it. Take Milk Road’s Kyle Reidhead:

“The US Crypto Reserve is NOT the government speculating on crypto tokens. The US also has foreign currency reserves. And commodity reserves.

They do this with important global assets to hedge against large price fluctuations (to ensure the economy can function in short term changes). The US isn’t buying random crypto tokens as investments. They are buying specific L1 tokens, which are seen as commodities.

If blockchains become an integral part of the financial system and how global trade/commerce works, then L1 tokens have importance as gas/utility to use these technologies. The US is simply building a reserve of assets for when that world becomes a reality.

So no, the US won’t be buying tokens that represent businesses/apps.

And no the US likely won’t be buying tech stocks either (unless it makes sense for data or other commodity like reasons). They are preparing for a world where everything is done on-chain. Currently, we don’t know what chain that will exist on.

Which is why they will probably hold a basket of L1 tokens, even random ones like ADA, though I imagine this is being done more-so to promote American made blockchains.

Don’t confuse a reserve with the US speculating on random crypto tokens. There is a method to their madness.”

I understand the argument. It sounds good. But I don’t agree with it. The world is not going to be run on XRP or ADA. People don’t use those assets right now in the same way they use Ethereum, Solana, or Bitcoin. Again, there is nothing strategic about this.

Now that we are on the same page for how I am thinking about the announcement, let’s discuss the ramifications of this crypto strategic reserve.

First, the stock markets are likely to make a big push to make trading 24/7/365 after this weekend. It is objectively hilarious that Trump announced a crypto strategic reserve, yet Wall Street can’t participate because they have antiquated hour of operations at their exchange. Expect this to change in the coming months or years.

Second, we should expect a flurry of other countries to announce strategic reserves of their own. The smart ones will acquire as much bitcoin as possible, while leaving the altcoins for the United States. But the American strategy should provide cover fire for any politician or country that wants to implement a crypto reserve in their country. If it is good enough for the US, it will be good enough for them.

Third, institutional investors will expand their purview into altcoins. Most firms have deemed bitcoin interesting, but they avoided the other assets out of caution. That is harder to do if the United States government is acquiring and holding the financial asset.

Fourth, the coins in the strategic reserve should increase in dollar price. Not only do you have the government buying large quantities, you also have other countries and institutional investors who emulate the allocation mix. Increased demand leads to increased prices.

Fifth, the chaos is just beginning. We are only six weeks into Trump’s presidency and it feels like ten years. The only guarantee is that nothing is guaranteed. Trump’s announcement this weekend surprised almost the entire crypto industry. Bitcoiners were besides themselves. And we haven’t even implemented the reserve yet. I am sure there will be plenty of drama around the implementation details, including what percentages each asset gets and where the assets will be held for safekeeping.

Sixth, this may be the most important prediction I could make — Trump is potentially negotiating in public with this announcement. If he wanted to get a bitcoin strategic reserve done, then The Art of the Deal would suggest Trump should ask for much more at the outset. As the idea of the reserve works through the political process, Trump is well positioned to give up the idea of adding altcoins to the reserve and can fall back on only adding bitcoin.

I am not saying this will happen, but it would not surprise me if there is some dealmaking at play here that is not immediately apparent. Only time will tell if we could be so lucky for the President of the United States to be positioning himself to ultimately get the bitcoin-only strategic reserve.

Hope you all have a great start to your week. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

Adam Back Says Bitcoin Could Hit $1,000,000

Adam Back is the Co-Founder & CEO of Blocksteam, and has been involved with bitcoin since the very early days.

In this conversation we discuss what is going on with bitcoin, how institutional adoption is going, the potential bitcoin strategic reserve, Satoshi, and much more.

Enjoy!

Podcast Sponsors

* Reed Smith - Smart legal solutions for complex disputes, transactions, and regulations. Learn more at www.reedsmith.com

* Ledger - Ledger secures 20% of the world’s digital assets. Their latest devices, Ledger Stax and Ledger Flex, feature secure touchscreens for safer, easier crypto management.

* Franzy - Ready to leave the 9-to-5, start a side hustle, or expand your portfolio? Franzy is your gateway to franchise ownership—research, compare, and fund the right opportunity with confidence and transparency.

* Bitwise - America’s largest crypto index fund manager and the only Bitcoin ETF issuer that publishes its wallet address plus donates 10% of profits to open source developers. Learn more at BitwisePomp.com

* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.

* Bitdeer - A global technology company focused on Bitcoin mining, ASIC development and HPC for AI, backed by advanced R&D and a massive 2.5 GW global power portfolio.

* Meanwhile - The world’s first licensed and regulated life insurance company built for the Bitcoin economy. Learn how to tax-optimize your BTC holdings for your life and beyond.

* BitcoinOS - The operating system for bitcoin applications powered by zero-knowledge technology. Check out @BTC_OS on twitter to learn more.

* Gemini - The future is being built today. Go Where Dollar’s Won’t. With Gemini.

* Xapo - Xapo Bank is the only way to bank with Bitcoin.

* Polkadot is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Innovation leader, making it a preferred choice for big names.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren't finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

To investors,

The United States of America is open for business. We voted a real estate developer and famed businessman into office. He has appointed everyone from Elon Musk to Howard Lutnick to Scott Bessent as members of his team to help change the economic status of the country.

The plan is to increase government revenue, decrease government spending, weaken the US dollar, and bring the 10-year bond yield down as a way to spur economic growth. This may sound like a dream, but I think we should take the plan more seriously than the market is currently taking it.

This new economic strategy is being called the “Mar-a-Lago Accord” and contains three important components:

* Tariffs to increase government revenue and incentivize American manufacturing.

* The sovereign wealth fund and External Revenue Service to increase government revenue.

* DOGE to cut government waste, abuse, and fraud.

The last few weeks have been dominated by news pertaining to tariffs and the Department of Government Efficiency, but yesterday we got more information on how the government is planning to increase revenue through various business deals or activities.

First, Ukraine is reported to have agreed to a mineral rights deal with the United States. The Wall Street Journal described the deal with the following:

“Ukraine has agreed to a mineral-rights deal with the U.S. that could be finalized as soon as Friday at a White House meeting between President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

People close to the negotiations said the text had now been agreed, and the U.S. had dropped its previous demand for the right to $500 billion in potential revenue from the development of Ukraine’s mineral resources.

“It’s a very big deal. It could be a trillion-dollar deal,” Trump told reporters Tuesday. “We’re spending hundreds of billions of dollars on Ukraine and Russia fighting a war that should have never ever happened.”

The signing ceremony would be a personal victory for Zelensky, who has been pushing for a face-to-face meeting with Trump but has instead had to watch as the U.S. opened discussions with Moscow about how to end the war—excluding Ukraine. The Ukrainian president had refused to sign the mineral-rights deal presented by a lower-level official, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.”

The details of the agreement are not known yet, but the Wall Street Journal went on to write:

“Under the terms of the agreement, Ukraine would pay some proceeds from future mineral resource development into a fund that would invest in projects in Ukraine. Resources that already make money for the Ukrainian government—such as existing oil and gas production—will be exempt from the deal.

The size of the U.S.’s stake in the fund and joint ownership deals will be hashed out in future agreements.”

This is a prime example of where the current administration is leaning on their business experience to strike a deal that creates revenue for the country and ensures that any foreign nation that wants services from the US will be paying for the service.

According to Perplexity, my favorite AI search engine, here is the American history with these payment for security agreements:

The next development of the day came in the form of an announcement from Donald Trump and Howard Lutnick in the Oval Office. The pair created something called a “Gold Card” which will be sold to foreigners for $5 million and give these individuals benefits equivalent to a green card.

Here is Trump and Lutnick announcing the idea:

If the United States government can sell about 200,000 gold cards, we have a shot at eliminating the annual deficit. If the government can sell about 7 million gold cards, we have a shot at eliminating the entire national debt.

Critics are already screaming that no one will buy these new gold cards, but the truth is no one knows what demand will look like yet. There has been demand for immigration investment programs in the past and I anticipate there will be some portion of the global population willing to part with $5 million in exchange for an American green card. Your guess is as good as mine on the exact number of people.

But this was not the only announcement made by Trump and Lutnick in the Oval Office yesterday. They also announced a brand new probe into copper and copper-products. Bloomberg explained it with the following description:

“President Donald Trump has signed an executive action directing the Commerce Department to examine possible copper tariffs, the latest in a string of measures aimed at imposing sector-specific levies that could reshape global supply chains.

Trump said the order would have a “big impact” as he signed it in the Oval Office, joined by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.

Senior administration officials earlier on Tuesday cast the step as necessary to address what they said was a national security issue. They argued that dumping and overcapacity in world markets had impacted domestic US copper production, leaving weapons systems and other critical products dependent on imports.”

This brings me to my big takeaway from the last 24 hours — the United States is open for business. We are striking mineral rights deals in Ukraine, we are announcing new gold cards that will get someone US residency for $5 million, and we are looking into ways to use tariffs on copper to raise additional revenue.

Howard Lutnick told me last year the United States should monetize our balance sheet and use our position in the world to create $1 trillion in annual revenue. It looks like he is doing the best he can to follow through on that promise, including the creation of a sovereign wealth fund and the External Revenue Service.

The big question is whether most people believe the current administration will be able to balance the budget. The odds on prediction market Kalshi are only at 18% right now.

Anecdotally, I was at a large lunch event yesterday with ~ 25 attendees. I asked how many people thought the US would balance the budget in the next 4 years. Not a single person raised their hand. No one.

Zero.

This blew my mind. I have the odds at around 50% right now, so either the market is mispricing the situation or I will be very wrong. Time will tell which is true.

Hope you all have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

Why Is Bitcoin Crashing?

Polina Pompliano, Author of ‘Hidden Genius’ and Founder of The Profile, and Anthony Pompliano, Author of ‘How To Live An Extraordinary Life’ and CEO of Professional Capital Management, discuss the bitcoin crash, what’s going on, Coinbase, Ken Griffin jumping into the crypto trading game, regulation, and what is going on with the Bybit hack.

Enjoy!

Podcast Sponsors

* Reed Smith - Smart legal solutions for complex disputes, transactions, and regulations. Learn more at www.reedsmith.com

* Ledger - Ledger secures 20% of the world’s digital assets. Their latest devices, Ledger Stax and Ledger Flex, feature secure touchscreens for safer, easier crypto management.

* Franzy - Ready to leave the 9-to-5, start a side hustle, or expand your portfolio? Franzy is your gateway to franchise ownership—research, compare, and fund the right opportunity with confidence and transparency.

* Bitwise - America’s largest crypto index fund manager and the only Bitcoin ETF issuer that publishes its wallet address plus donates 10% of profits to open source developers. Learn more at BitwisePomp.com

* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.

* Bitdeer - A global technology company focused on Bitcoin mining, ASIC development and HPC for AI, backed by advanced R&D and a massive 2.5 GW global power portfolio.

* Meanwhile - The world’s first licensed and regulated life insurance company built for the Bitcoin economy. Learn how to tax-optimize your BTC holdings for your life and beyond.

* BitcoinOS - The operating system for bitcoin applications powered by zero-knowledge technology. Check out @BTC_OS on twitter to learn more.

* Gemini - The future is being built today. Go Where Dollar’s Won’t. With Gemini.

* Xapo - Xapo Bank is the only way to bank with Bitcoin.

* Polkadot is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Innovation leader, making it a preferred choice for big names.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren't finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

Today’s letter is brought to you by Osprey Funds!

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To investors,

Bloomberg published an article yesterday titled “Citadel Securities Plots Jump Into Crypto Trading After Trump’s Embrace.” The piece explains:

“Ken Griffin’s market-making giant Citadel Securities is looking to become a liquidity provider for cryptocurrencies, betting President Donald Trump’s embrace of the industry will usher in a boom for the asset class.

It’s a clear pivot from the firm’s previously cautious stance on crypto market-making. Citadel Securities has had a limited presence in crypto trading, having steered clear of exchanges frequented by retail investors due to a lack of regulations around it in the US.

The firm aims to get added to the roster of market makers on various exchanges, including those run by Coinbase Global Inc., Binance Holdings and Crypto.com, according to people familiar with the matter.

Once the firm is approved on exchanges, it initially plans to set up market-making teams outside the US, the people said, asking not to be identified as the plans aren’t public. The extent of the push and Citadel’s desire could change based on how or if new regulations roll out in the coming months.”

This is a perfect example of the impact a pro-innovation, pro-technology regulatory environment can have. Major players like Citadel were sitting on the sidelines waiting to participate in the best performing financial asset markets because they felt the rules were unclear.

Think of how insane that is — Citadel Securities, one of the best capitalized investment firms in the world, could not figure out how to participate in crypto markets without regulators coming after them.

Thankfully, the industry now has a tailwind and every market participant is trying to figure out what their crypto strategy will be. You can expect market-making firms like Citadel Securities to drive substantial revenue without having to take significant directional bets on the market.

That could be a good decision at a time where the macro economy is in a weird spot. Mets owner and famed investor Steve Cohen recently said he believes economic growth is going to slow from 2.5% to as low as 1.5% — that would be a very big deal.

Here were Cohen’s negative comments on the economy:

These comments are important because Steve Cohen is one of the smartest investors in the world. He intimately understands financial markets and is well-versed in the complex economic machine.

What Cohen is essentially arguing is that government waste propped up financial markets, so removing that waste will be a headwind for economic growth. I don’t disagree with him. Add in the tariffs and you have an even slower growing economy in the short term.

So what should the Federal Reserve do? How about the Trump administration?

The answer may be right in front of our face. Another article in Bloomberg titled “The Bond Market Isn’t Fully Buying What Musk’s DOGE Is Selling” lays out what Trump, Secretary Bessent, and Elon Musk are currently thinking:

“Musk recognized that the ultimate scorekeepers of the success of his small band of cost-cutters were 200 miles away — on Wall Street. There, bond investors had pushed up yields sharply in the run-up to, and aftermath of, Trump’s election and were now refusing to bid them back down.

Musk got the message loud and clear. The bond market was doubting him, demanding more evidence that the cuts were adding up fast enough to actually rein in the bloated budget deficit and curb the ever-growing national debt. This, Musk insisted, was a mistake they’d come to regret.

“The bond markets do not currently reflect the savings that I’m confident we can achieve,” he said during a freewheeling, hour-long discussion he led on his social media platform, X. “If you’re shorting bonds, I think you’re on the wrong side of the bet.”

Trump has famously obsessed with the stock market as a real-time referendum on his presidency. But now, with Musk and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in his ear at the start of his second term, much of the attention has shifted to another benchmark — the 10-year Treasury bond yield.

With good reason. As powerful as the Federal Reserve is, with its control of short-term rates, and as much sway as it has on stock market sentiment, it’s the 10-year Treasury rate that largely determines the cost of money for homebuyers and the biggest US companies. Bring that rate down and it’ll pave the way for millions of Americans to buy the house they’ve wanted for years and, in the process, stoke faster economic growth and curb the alarming surge in the government’s annual interest tab.”

So to recap — Steve Cohen is sounding the alarm on a slowing economic environment and the current administration is doing everything they can to get the 10-year bond yield down, so they can ignite economic growth.

This is a battle as old as time. A negative market force vs an aspirational market intervention. The winner will take trillions of dollars with them in their direction of travel.

So far, Jim Bianco points out “the 10-year yield is down six consecutive weeks, every week since the inauguration. The longest such streak in 5.5 years.”

That may give you a sense of who will end up winning this game. But while the bulls and bears are fighting it out, Ken Griffin and Citadel will be taking home their profits by market-making through all the volatility.

The big boys are entering the crypto market now that regulators have given them the green light. There will be pros and cons to this institutional participation, including less volatility over time, but you need institutional adoption if you want true mass adoption.

Just be careful what you wish for. When Wall Street is making billions, that money has to be coming from someone else’s pocket. Make sure the pocket isn’t yours.

Hope everyone has a great day. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

My Appearance On CNBC’s Squawk Box Yesterday

Anthony Pompliano joins Squawk Box to talk bitcoin, regulation, current macro environment, memecoins, and where bitcoin could be headed next.

Enjoy!

Podcast Sponsors

* Reed Smith - Smart legal solutions for complex disputes, transactions, and regulations. Learn more at www.reedsmith.com

* Ledger - Ledger secures 20% of the world’s digital assets. Their latest devices, Ledger Stax and Ledger Flex, feature secure touchscreens for safer, easier crypto management.

* Franzy - Ready to leave the 9-to-5, start a side hustle, or expand your portfolio? Franzy is your gateway to franchise ownership—research, compare, and fund the right opportunity with confidence and transparency.

* Bitwise - America’s largest crypto index fund manager and the only Bitcoin ETF issuer that publishes its wallet address plus donates 10% of profits to open source developers. Learn more at BitwisePomp.com

* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.

* Bitdeer - A global technology company focused on Bitcoin mining, ASIC development and HPC for AI, backed by advanced R&D and a massive 2.5 GW global power portfolio.

* Meanwhile - The world’s first licensed and regulated life insurance company built for the Bitcoin economy. Learn how to tax-optimize your BTC holdings for your life and beyond.

* BitcoinOS - The operating system for bitcoin applications powered by zero-knowledge technology. Check out @BTC_OS on twitter to learn more.

* Gemini - The future is being built today. Go Where Dollar’s Won’t. With Gemini.

* Xapo - Xapo Bank is the only way to bank with Bitcoin.

* Polkadot is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Innovation leader, making it a preferred choice for big names.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren't finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

To investors,

I remember sitting in economics class during college wondering what it would have been like to live through Bretton Woods or the Plaza Accord. Both events had significant impacts on national currencies, asset prices and the macro environment.

But we should be careful what we wish for.

Jim Bianco has recently popularized the idea of a “Mar-a-Lago Accord” that is already being put into motion. He says you should take this idea (and President Trump) seriously, but not literally. We may not see photos from a big meeting at Mar-a-Lago, but we are virtually watching the economic machine evolve into something different.

First, you have to accept that the US dollar is overvalued. This is creating problems for the United States and many trading partners around the world. Jim points out that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Dec 4, 2024 - “the U.S. federal budget is on an unsustainable path. The debt is not at an unsustainable level, but the path is unsustainable, and we know that we have to change that.”

Jim’s response was “we can no longer do nothing. That will result in disaster. Something has to change. And that is not trying harder to raise taxes and cut spending. Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting a different result. New approach is needed (Mar-a-Lago Accord).”

This is where things get interesting. What is the new approach? According to Jim, we are watching this new economic system roll out in front of our eyes. This approach includes the following:

This is not a potential idea — Jim Bianco says the plan is already in motion.

“Step one has already been done ... Tariffs. They have two objectives, leverage (Mexico 10k troops on the border) and revenues. But to drone on and on about tariffs is to lose sight of the entire forest in this tree.”

“Step two is being done, the US Sovereign Wealth Fund. How does this get funded? Treasury Secretary Bessent ... sovereign-wealth fund would allow the government ‘to monetize the U.S. balance sheet for the American people. We’re going to put the assets to work.’”

“Step three - reduce the debt via payment for the security arrangement.

Trump Jan 23rd to the WEF - ‘I’m also going to ask all NATO nations to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP, which is what it should have been years ago. It was only at 2%, and most nations didn’t pay until I came along. I insisted that they pay, and they did, because the United States was really paying the difference at that time, and it was unfair to the United States. But many, many things have been unfair for many years to the United States.’”

Many people I know are not taking any of these developments seriously. They thought the tariffs were merely a negotiating point. They currently think the sovereign wealth fund is a random announcement that will never get implemented. And the thought of the US demanding payment for security of other nations makes them want to scream in rage.

But every investor has a choice to make — you can ignore what is happening or you can adapt your perspective as new information is presented. The goal of these various programs according to Bianco is to “reduce the debt burden, lower the dollar and bring down interest rates.”

Majority of investors agree those three outcomes would be good things. The controversy and debate comes from disagreement on whether the Mar-a-Lago Accord can actually accomplish these desired results.

Here is my biggest takeaway though — whether you believe the desired outcomes can be achieved or not, you have to accept the fact that the new administration is going to use these programs and tools to attempt it. Tariffs are being implemented. The sovereign wealth fund is real and will be created. Europe is going to pay a higher price for the security agreement as well.

Those are facts that can’t be ignored.

Market participants are going to wager trillions of dollars on the outcome of this new “Accord.” The good news is that American citizens will be better off if the plan succeeds. The important question is whether asset prices will benefit or not.

Interest rates coming down should be a tailwind. Debt reduction could be a short-term headwind. And a weaker dollar should drive asset prices higher. Those three statements mean the situation is complex, but I am in the camp that we would see a net positive for asset prices.

Ultimately, assets like bitcoin or tech stocks will go the way of global liquidity. The Mar-a-Lago Accords idea is fun to think about, but everything you need to know will be told by the liquidity charts.

Hope you all have a great start to your week. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

Will Bitcoin Generate Yield?

Anthony Pompliano joins Squawk Box to talk bitcoin, regulation, current macro environment, memecoins, and where bitcoin could be headed next.

Enjoy!

Podcast Sponsors

* Reed Smith - Smart legal solutions for complex disputes, transactions, and regulations. Learn more at www.reedsmith.com

* Ledger - Ledger secures 20% of the world’s digital assets. Their latest devices, Ledger Stax and Ledger Flex, feature secure touchscreens for safer, easier crypto management.

* Franzy - Ready to leave the 9-to-5, start a side hustle, or expand your portfolio? Franzy is your gateway to franchise ownership—research, compare, and fund the right opportunity with confidence and transparency.

* Bitwise - America’s largest crypto index fund manager and the only Bitcoin ETF issuer that publishes its wallet address plus donates 10% of profits to open source developers. Learn more at BitwisePomp.com

* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.

* Bitdeer - A global technology company focused on Bitcoin mining, ASIC development and HPC for AI, backed by advanced R&D and a massive 2.5 GW global power portfolio.

* Meanwhile - The world’s first licensed and regulated life insurance company built for the Bitcoin economy. Learn how to tax-optimize your BTC holdings for your life and beyond.

* BitcoinOS - The operating system for bitcoin applications powered by zero-knowledge technology. Check out @BTC_OS on twitter to learn more.

* Gemini - The future is being built today. Go Where Dollar’s Won’t. With Gemini.

* Xapo - Xapo Bank is the only way to bank with Bitcoin.

* Polkadot is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Innovation leader, making it a preferred choice for big names.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren't finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

READER NOTE: I have spent the last few years mostly managing balance sheet capital. There have been a few people who have reached out asking if they can invest with me or our investment firm. While I have not made a decision yet, I am increasingly open to the idea.

As a way to gauge interest, I made this Google Form. If you are interested in potentially investing alongside me in the deals we do, please fill out the form to indict your interest: Click here

To investors,

American consumers are feeling immense financial pain. I started thinking about the problem after I saw this post from my friend Balaji Srinivasan showing credit card debt hit a record $1.21 trillion:

If you dig into the data further, you see that the average credit card balance is $21,000 and Americans are paying an average of 28.6% interest on that debt. This is insane. Imagine paying 28.6% on your debt — you would double your debt in about 30 months.

But credit cards are only part of the story.

Home affordability is at the lowest levels in four decades. The median US home price has gone from ~ $280,000 in 2016 to more than $400,000 today. There is a decreasing amount of people who have the cash laying around to make a downpayment, let alone the increasing wages to keep up with this level of real estate appreciation.

Home prices accelerating are helping the boomer generation who have around 50% of their net worth in their primary residence, but it is pricing out the younger generations who have become a renter generation.

We can also see this financial pain for the American consumer in their spending behavior. Retail sales in January fell 0.9% and has caused a number of stocks to fall in recent days — retailers are calling out the weakened consumer demand as a significant headwind.

Not only is the consumer frustration showing up in spending patterns, but we are now seeing the sentiment surveys come in negatively for President Trump and his administration. Here is the data:

“According to a recent Gallup poll, Trump's approval rating on the economy stands at 42 percent. This is lower than any president's first-term February reading in recent history, Gallup notes, including those for Joe Biden (54 percent), Barack Obama (59 percent), George W. Bush (53 percent) and Bill Clinton (45 percent).”

Economies don’t turn around overnight obviously. But the American consumer bought into the campaign promises of inflation coming down and a strong, growing US economy. Vice President JD Vance said Americans should expect the positive impacts to “take a bit of time.”

Another data point worth paying attention to is the rising prices of gold and bitcoin. Both assets benefit from sound money principles and operate outside the system. They serve as a safe haven for investors who are nervous about the economy or seeking protection from inflation.

Gold continues to hit new all-time highs and sits right below $3,000 per ounce. The precious metal is up more than 50% over the last 12 months. Bitcoin is also on a tear. The digital currency has doubled in the last year, while continuing to hover around $100,000 per coin.

Consumers are feeling the pain of 3% year-over-year inflation (if you believe the official government metrics). They are starting to contract their spending. They can’t afford a home and they are living on credit more frequently. Plus investment capital is seeking assets that benefit from inflation.

These various trends lead back to one big idea — the American consumer is in financial pain.

Thankfully, we don’t have to spend all of our time complaining. There are solutions we can pursue. First, we need DOGE to be successful in slashing government spending. This will act as a deflationary force on the economy and help keep inflation under control. Second, we need the private sector to create the products, services, and companies necessary to get GDP growth cranking higher. This will also create a deflationary force that leads to more economic gain for the average American family.

Citizens can’t impact the political apparatus until the next election, but we can focus our time and effort on making sure that GDP is growing faster. The future will be bright if we can do that.

Grow our way out of the problem.

Until then, people will continue to use bitcoin and gold as a way to store their hard-earned economic value. Stocks and real estate will also benefit from the high inflation environment. Investors are winners in today’s economy and savers are losers.

Crazy situation. Let’s hope the new administration is successful for the sake of all Americans.

Hope you all have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone next week.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

Will Bitcoin Generate Yield?

David Tse is the Co-Founder of Babylon Protocol.

In this conversation he explains two use cases for bitcoin, why he is trying to build a third use case, staking in the bitcoin network, and what David thinks the future looks like.

Enjoy!

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* Bitwise - America’s largest crypto index fund manager and the only Bitcoin ETF issuer that publishes its wallet address plus donates 10% of profits to open source developers. Learn more at BitwisePomp.com

* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.

* Bitdeer - A global technology company focused on Bitcoin mining, ASIC development and HPC for AI, backed by advanced R&D and a massive 2.5 GW global power portfolio.

* Meanwhile - The world’s first licensed and regulated life insurance company built for the Bitcoin economy. Learn how to tax-optimize your BTC holdings for your life and beyond.

* BitcoinOS - The operating system for bitcoin applications powered by zero-knowledge technology. Check out @BTC_OS on twitter to learn more.

* Gemini - The future is being built today. Go Where Dollar’s Won’t. With Gemini.

* Xapo - Xapo Bank is the only way to bank with Bitcoin.

* Polkadot is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Innovation leader, making it a preferred choice for big names.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren't finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe