The Pomp Letter

To investors,

I was interviewed by Fox Business’ Charles Gasparino yesterday at the 10X Wealth Conference in Miami, Florida. One of the topics we spent time on was bitcoin’s volatility. This is a common critique used by traditional market participants, but those critiques led me to think more deeply about the pros/cons of bitcoin’s volatility.

I should start by saying young investors today should be known as the Volatility Generation. They seek out volatility more than those who came before them, while also being blessed to live in a time where financial markets were highly volatile.

Volatility is not good or bad. People like volatility when it goes in their favor (ex: you are holding a stock and the stock is volatile to the upside) and they hate volatility when it goes against them.

Next, volatility can have a profound impact on individuals and their financial life. Take US housing priced in bitcoin — we have seen a 99% reduction in the last 8 years to home prices when they are denominated in the digital currency.

A self-described “macro nerd” and “capital market enthusiast” shared this chart on Twitter, which hammers home how insane this price reduction has been (remember this is in log!):

This chart is backwards looking, but what if we take the information and apply it to the future? Thankfully, we can take a look at Mark Harvey’s work for this exact answer. Mark writes:

“The absolute worst 4-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for Bitcoin is 24%. This means that even if you bought BTC at the worst possible time and held it for 4 years, you would still achieve an average annual return of 24% on your money.

Running the numbers: BTC price if it was to return 24% annually and held for the next....

* 4 years: $215K

* 5 years: $267K

* 10 years: $782K

However, the current 4-year CAGR is 50%.

BTC price if it was to return 50% annually and held for the next...

* 4 years: $461K

* 5 years: $691K

* 10 years: $5.2M”

These numbers are wild to think about — bitcoin would end up between $782,000 - $5.2 million in the next decade according to the worst CAGR or the current CAGR. I am not predicting either of those prices, but rather explaining what the data says.

Now here is the most interesting question — will the compound annual growth rate of bitcoin slow down or accelerate in the coming years?

You can see in the chart above that the CAGR has been dropping since 2016. The easy answer is that an asset’s CAGR will drop as the asset gets bigger. But there are two data points that are worth considering for the counter-argument — investor interest and size of capital pools.

On the investor interest side, Wall Street Journal’s Gunjan Banerji recently tweeted:

“There has been a nearly unprecedented rush into stocks since the U.S. presidential election. U.S. equity funds recorded $56 billion of inflows last week, the second largest sum **on record** going back to 2008”

Record investor interest levels in stocks is bound to have an impact on bitcoin. Some of that exuberance will make its way to the more asymmetric asset, which could drive bitcoin’s CAGR higher in the short-term.

Additionally, the size of capital pools allocating to bitcoin are changing. We used to see individuals and family offices as the main buyer. Last cycle we started to see corporations. And this cycle is already driven by large financial institutions such as Blackrock, Fidelity, Franklin Templeton, and others.

Eventually we will see countries and central banks buying bitcoin as well. These large capital pools mean a strong tailwind for the asset, which could also drive the CAGR higher.

So what do I think?

The two points I bring up—investor interest and size of capital pools—are unlikely to accelerate bitcoin’s CAGR over the long-run. Instead, I could see those tailwinds helping to prevent the decay of the CAGR for longer than we would otherwise see. Crypto investors are jaded. They forget that a 50% CAGR in traditional markets would be INSANE.

If we can keep that rate going for another 5-10 years, there will be material wealth generated for any bitcoin holder, regardless of how many bitcoin they hold. This is the best case scenario in my opinion.

But my base case remains unchanged — I would expect bitcoin’s volatility to decrease, along with the compound annual growth rate, as we look out to the next 3-5 years. It is very hard for assets to gain substantial market cap and keep growing at the same growth rate. I don’t think bitcoin will be special in this department.

So the good news is that bitcoin is going to do very well in the future. The asset is likely going to be worth hundreds of thousands of dollars in the next few years. The only thing investors need to do is buy some bitcoin and chill. Don’t outsmart yourself. Don’t try to trade. Don’t get cute.

Just let the asset do what it was designed to do. Number Go Up technology is a real thing. I wouldn’t want to bet against it.

Hope you all have a great start to your week. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.

-Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

Anthony Pompliano on Fox Business Discussing The Bitcoin Strategic Reserve

Enjoy!

Podcast Sponsors

* Blockstream Mining Note 2 (BMN2) is an EU registered and issued Bitcoin mining security token designed to outperform BTC returns. Learn more and view live analytics on our performance dashboard.

* Gemini - The future is being built today. Go Where Dollar’s Won’t. With Gemini.

* BetOnline is your #1 source for all your crypto sports and politics betting! Use our promo code POMP100 to receive a 100% matching bonus up to $1,000 on your first crypto deposit.

* Xapo - Xapo Bank is the only way to bank with Bitcoin. 

* Polkadot is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Innovation leader, making it a preferred choice for big names.

* ResiClub - Your data-driven gateway to the US housing market.

* Professional Capital Management - Anthony Pompliano’s asset management firm is now on Linkedin. Please subscribe by clicking here.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

To investors,

Bitcoin had one of it’s most impressive days in history yesterday. The asset was up more than 13% and nearly hit $90,000 on the day. There was a lack of substantive news, so I believe the price action was merely Wall Street realizing they were under-allocated to bitcoin.

For example, bitcoin was trading around $76,000 on Friday afternoon when the stock market closed. The asset had appreciated and was trading around $82,000 when the stock market opened Monday morning. This means Wall Street investors were boxed out of the market all weekend while bitcoin was running.

As soon as the market opened on Monday morning, there was a gap up and it was obvious that bitcoin was going to have momentum for the day. I usually don’t care about day-to-day price action, nor do I consider myself a trader or technician, but this market structure is important to understand because one of the largest pools of capital interested in bitcoin can only buy the asset during stock market open hours.

The US stock market is closed more hours a week than it is open. Yet bitcoin still has performed well while the stock market is closed, so there is an interesting memetic response from Wall Street when the stock market opens.

You can see this dynamic playing out elsewhere in the market too.

Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas writes “The Bitcoin Industrial Complex (ETFs + MSTR, COIN) saw $38 billion in trading volume today, lifetime records being set all over the place, including IBIT, which did $4.5 billion, which points to a robust week of inflows. Just an insane day.”

It is very clear that Wall Street wants bitcoin and bitcoin-related companies. Take a look at Hut 8, which provides power for bitcoin mining and artificial intelligence use cases (I am an advisor). The company has seen the stock price increase by more than 50% over the last 5 days.

This is interesting because Hut 8 ($HUT) sits at the intersection of energy and bitcoin. We know there is a pro-bitcoin President coming to the White House, but one of the other core Trump policies is to deregulate the energy industry. This feels like 1 + 1 = 5. Anywhere that bitcoin intersects with other Trump policies, we should see value being created for investors.

This brings us back to bitcoin. What if the asset is not only going up because of Wall Street FOMO? What else could it be?

I think bitcoin is screaming a message to us — we just have to listen.

The US national debt has exploded in the last month. Charlie Bilello points out:

“US National Debt is absolutely exploding higher, increasing by $850 billion in just the last 3 months. In the past 5 years we've seen a 56% increase. The Federal Government is borrowing from our future to spend money like drunken sailors today.”

During the last 3-months, bitcoin has added more than $26,000 to the price. That is a 44% increase at the same time the national debt increased by $850 billion.

Maybe bitcoin is acting as the alarm bell? Could it be attempting to draw our attention to the acceleration in uncontrolled spending?

I wouldn’t bet against it.

Bitcoin has become a great hedge against currency debasement. The higher the national debt goes, the more the government will need to inflate their way out of it. Everyone has their eyes on Wall Street FOMO, but maybe bitcoin is actually pointing us to the politicians.

Hope you all have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.

-Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

Anthony Pompliano Explains Why The Recent Bitcoin All-Time High Signals An Incoming Bull Run

Anthony Pompliano records a solo episode as bitcoin smashes through $80,000. He explains how we got here, and personal thoughts on where we are going.

Enjoy!

Podcast Sponsors

* Blockstream Mining Note 2 (BMN2) is an EU registered and issued Bitcoin mining security token designed to outperform BTC returns. Learn more and view live analytics on our performance dashboard.

* Gemini - The future is being built today. Go Where Dollar’s Won’t. With Gemini.

* BetOnline is your #1 source for all your crypto sports and politics betting! Use our promo code POMP100 to receive a 100% matching bonus up to $1,000 on your first crypto deposit.

* Xapo - Xapo Bank is the only way to bank with Bitcoin. 

* Polkadot is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Innovation leader, making it a preferred choice for big names.

* ResiClub - Your data-driven gateway to the US housing market.

* Professional Capital Management - Anthony Pompliano’s asset management firm is now on Linkedin. Please subscribe by clicking here.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

To investors,

Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of more than $82,300 this morning. This means the digital currency is up over 18% in the last 7 days. The market seems to like that a pro-bitcoin President was elected.

The latest all-time high is going to be particularly important for the trajectory bitcoin will travel in the next 12 months. I believe crossing $80,000 — which is a nice, big round number — will catch the eye of many investors and capital allocators.

Bitcoin is now in a price range that has never been covered before. The charts look incredibly good too. Mark Ungewitter called it the “best chart on planet” yesterday.

More importantly, the cross of $80,000 signals the first time in years that bitcoin has hit a new all-time in inflation-adjusted terms. Daniel Sempere Pico highlights the previous all-time high of more than $69,000 is actually equivalent to over $80,000 in today’s dollars. This weekend’s price appreciation put us over the new inflation-adjusted threshold.

Institutional investors are going to be very interested in understanding bitcoin, and potentially allocating to it, when the media is talking about it non-stop all week. If you don’t think that is going to happen, then you are new around here. You will eventually learn.

Retail is leading the charge on word-of-mouth. You can see Google Search queries starting to rise compared to the last 12 months.

We still aren’t to the levels we saw for the new all-time high post-ETF approval in March, but we are getting close. I would expect Google Search trends to eclipse March levels by the end of the year.

Speaking of history, we should pay very close attention to what happened four years ago. 2020 was the last halving year. We saw bitcoin’s price go from approximately $15,000 in early November to over $60,000 in March of 2021.

That is more than 400% price appreciation in 5 months. Not many assets can do that.

I am not predicting a repeat of the 400% gain in such a short time period, but I do think history is going to rhyme in the coming months. I wrote to you all on October 28th this year and said “don’t get lulled to sleep by sideways summer. We should be coming out of hibernation soon and decision-makers become much more interested after prices have increased.”

It is safe to say we are out of hibernation now.

It would not surprise me to see bitcoin catch a very strong bid through the end of the year. Price is reflexive. Everyone on Wall Street copies each other. Financial advisors are starting to put on 1% positions for all clients unless the opt out. Here is an example message that someone posted online:

Additionally, there are rumors from some of the most knowledgable Bitcoiners that we will see very large nation state purchases revealed in the coming months. Bitcoin Magazine CEO David Bailey claims a nation state has become a top 5 holder of bitcoin recently but no one is aware they purchased the bitcoin.

That would be a fairly important announcement. I will leave the speculation of who it is to all of you.

So what does all this data and information tell us — bitcoin is going much higher between now and the end of 2025. I don’t know what the exact price or timing will be, but it is hard to find a compelling argument to be bearish or reserved right now.

The world is realizing the importance of a decentralized, digital currency that continues to produce block-after-block of transactions regardless of what happens in the world. The United States has a pro-bitcoin President going to the White House. And investors are realizing bitcoin may be the solution they need. The results speak for themselves.

Hope you all have a great start to your week. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.

-Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

READER NOTE: This is a free version of The Pomp Letter. If you want to receive this letter every morning with my personal opinions on financial markets, please subscribe to become a paying member.

Adam Kobeissi and Anthony Pompliano Discuss Gold and Bitcoin

Adam Kobeissi is the founder of ‘The Kobeissi Letter.’, and Anthony Pompliano, CEO of Professional Capital Management, discuss bitcoin and gold.

Enjoy!

Podcast Sponsors

* Blockstream Mining Note 2 (BMN2) is an EU registered and issued Bitcoin mining security token designed to outperform BTC returns. Learn more and view live analytics on our performance dashboard.

* Gemini - The future is being built today. Go Where Dollar’s Won’t. With Gemini.

* BetOnline is your #1 source for all your crypto sports and politics betting! Use our promo code POMP100 to receive a 100% matching bonus up to $1,000 on your first crypto deposit.

* Xapo - Xapo Bank is the only way to bank with Bitcoin. 

* Polkadot is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Innovation leader, making it a preferred choice for big names.

* ResiClub - Your data-driven gateway to the US housing market.

* Professional Capital Management - Anthony Pompliano’s asset management firm is now on Linkedin. Please subscribe by clicking here.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

🚨 READER NOTE: Next Tuesday, I am hosting a free webinar for anyone who wants to learn more about Bitcoin self-custody. It will be a 3+ hour masterclass where my team and I will walk through step-by-step instructions for implementing self-custody and answer questions.

The event is completely free and open to anyone who wants to attend. Register for free here: https://lu.ma/selfcustody

To investors,

Yesterday we witnessed the best performance in history for the S&P 500 on the day after an election. It is clear that capital allocators are positioning themselves for higher prices across the market.

An area to keep an eye on is the Russell 2000 — these small cap companies tend to be more sensitive to interest rates. The index was up nearly 6% yesterday. The market believes under President Trump capital will be cheaper and regulation will be decreased, which creates a tailwind for these businesses.

Speaking of deregulation, I continue to tell friends that the energy sector is on the starting block of a renaissance. The United States is already a net exporter of crude oil, but the Trump administration continues to boast of an even larger pro-energy approach. Drill, baby, drill.

But stocks and energy are not the most interesting developments over the last few months — Trump previously committed to a “bitcoin strategic reserve” if he was elected.

There are a lot of campaign promises made on the trail, so it seemed unlikely this would actually come to fruition. Not so fast though. We saw Senator Cynthia Lummis tweet yesterday about the strategic reserve. Her post has received more than 5.6 million views as of this morning.

A bitcoin strategic reserve would kick off a level of global FOMO unlike anything we have seen before. Every nation and every central bank would have to quickly create a bitcoin strategy. Whether they bought bitcoin in the open market or chose to mine bitcoin with national energy resources, many countries would begin stockpiling bitcoin for a rainy day.

Lastly, my friend Howard Lindzon has an interesting idea around the “degenerate economy.” He writes:

“For the last year I have been digging into what I call the ‘degenerate economy’ which is the next phase of investors, ownership, gambling, living life with a wallet on/in your phone. The 'degenerate economy' includes education, experiences and activities. We onboarded and connected hundreds of millions of young people into investing, trading, speculation, crypto and gambling/betting.”

Howard created an index for tracking this thesis and the index is up ~ 90% in the last 18 months. It was up 7% yesterday after Trump was confirmed as the election winner.

Stocks up. Energy production up. Bitcoin up. Degenerate economy up. This is the future we are headed into.

The biggest risk to the US economy is not a recession, but rather a resurgence of inflation. President Trump wants to stimulate the economy. But the US dollar is sitting on the other side of the table from that plan. We already have a Fed that is cutting interest rates and M2 money supply is growing, so Trump adding fuel to the fire would potentially create another 2020-style boom to markets.

Those holding assets will get rich. Those holding cash will not. A tale as old as time.

Hope you all have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.

-Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

🚨 READER NOTE: I am co-hosting a conference with Lance Lambert and ResiClub on residential real estate in NYC tomorrow. We have many industry experts speaking about the housing market, impact of interest rates, effects on the US economy, and what investors should know moving forward.

The event has been quite popular, so remaining tickets are limited. If you would like to attend, please grab your tickets: Click here

Anthony & Polina Pompliano Discuss Why Trump Won and How It Will Impact Various Financial Assets

Polina Pompliano, Author of ‘Hidden Genius’ and Founder of The Profile, and Anthony Pompliano, Author of ‘How To Live An Extraordinary Life’ and CEO of Professional Capital Management, discuss 2024 election, why Donald Trump won in landslide, what that means for your investment portfolio, stocks, bitcoin, predictions during a Trump Presidency, JD Vance, Elon Musk, and all the impacts of the election.

Enjoy!

Podcast Sponsors

* Blockstream Mining Note 2 (BMN2) is an EU registered and issued Bitcoin mining security token designed to outperform BTC returns. Learn more and view live analytics on our performance dashboard.

* Gemini - The future is being built today. Go Where Dollar’s Won’t. With Gemini.

* BetOnline is your #1 source for all your crypto sports and politichttp://gemini.com/gowheredollarswonts betting! Use our promo code POMP100 to receive a 100% matching bonus up to $1,000 on your first crypto deposit.

* Xapo - Xapo Bank is the only way to bank with Bitcoin. 

* Polkadot is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Innovation leader, making it a preferred choice for big names.

* ResiClub - Your data-driven gateway to the US housing market.

* Professional Capital Management - Anthony Pompliano’s asset management firm is now on Linkedin. Please subscribe by clicking here.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

To investors,

The citizens of the United States spoke loudly last night. They delivered a crushing victory for Donald Trump, including a Republican victory in the House, Senate, popular vote, and electoral college. Very few people thought Trump would win the popular vote, but here we are.

This can only be described with one word: Landslide.

The mandate to Trump is clear — get inflation under control, make homes more affordable, secure the border, cut taxes, don’t engage in new wars, stop the woke nonsense, and make America healthy again.

Powerful stuff.

If you want to understand how the victory could be so large, we can look at places like Starr County in Texas.

It is hard to fathom how decisive the election was.

Financial markets love the idea of a Trump presidency as well. Stocks went higher over night, including Tesla up 15% and DJT up more than 30% during the period. More importantly, bitcoin hit a new all-time high price of $75,000 last night as Trump’s odds of winning surged.

Satoshi Nakamoto couldn’t have written a better script. The decentralized currency hitting a new high as the President of the United States is decided. A big part of the reason is Trump will be the first Bitcoin President.

He ran on the idea that a Trump administration would protect bitcoin, create a regulatory environment that would serve as a tailwind, and the United States would create a bitcoin strategic reserve. All of these developments would be good for bitcoin, but they would also kick off a global game theory for other countries.

If Trump embraces bitcoin, other countries will be forced to follow. I explained some of this on CNBC’s Squawk Box this morning:

One other important point is that Trump will likely be very helpful for bitcoin miners.

Deregulation in the energy industry will bring more abundance and lower prices. A pro-bitcoin President will bring a tailwind to the asset. Combine those two things and you could see bitcoin miners becoming an even more attractive opportunity.

As I have previously discussed, I want to be an energy dealer in the years to come — provide energy for modern uses cases in society. The thesis just got even stronger with a Trump victory.

Overall, Donald Trump walked away with a decisive victory last night. Asset prices look ready to surge higher in the coming days. It remains to be seen which policies Trump will enact, but having a pro-business and pro-capitalism President in office should….be good for businesses and investors.

Let’s see what happens. Hope you all have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.

-Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

🚨 READER NOTE: I am co-hosting a conference with Lance Lambert and ResiClub on residential real estate in NYC this Friday, November 8th. We have many industry experts speaking about the housing market, impact of interest rates, effects on the US economy, and what investors should know moving forward.

The event has been quite popular, so remaining tickets are limited. If you would like to attend, please grab your tickets: Click here

Dylan LeClair Explains Why Corporations Are Putting Bitcoin On Their Balance Sheets

Adam Kobeissi is the founder of ‘The Kobeissi Letter.’

In this conversation, we break down the US economy, inflation, national debt, Warren Buffett stacking cash, why homes have become unaffordable, gold bitcoin, stocks, and where the market is going.

Enjoy!

Podcast Sponsors

* Blockstream Mining Note 2 (BMN2) is an EU registered and issued Bitcoin mining security token designed to outperform BTC returns. Learn more and view live analytics on our performance dashboard.

* Gemini - The future is being built today. Go Where Dollar’s Won’t. With Gemini.

* BetOnline is your #1 source for all your crypto sports and politichttp://gemini.com/gowheredollarswonts betting! Use our promo code POMP100 to receive a 100% matching bonus up to $1,000 on your first crypto deposit.

* Xapo - Xapo Bank is the only way to bank with Bitcoin. 

* Polkadot is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Innovation leader, making it a preferred choice for big names.

* ResiClub - Your data-driven gateway to the US housing market.

* Professional Capital Management - Anthony Pompliano’s asset management firm is now on Linkedin. Please subscribe by clicking here.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

To investors,

The next President of the United States will be decided today. Tens of millions of Americans will cast their vote in hopes of seeing their candidate elected. But investors are laser-focused on how the election will impact their portfolio.

My goal with today’s letter is to answer that question.

First, Chris Hayes and Alex Harring from CNBC analyzed the S&P performance after every election since 1980. Here is what they found:

We have only seen a decline in the S&P 500 by the end of the election year 4 out of 11 times. The average return is 1.5% and the median is 3.7%. Not bad for historical analysis of the last two months in an election year, while also ignoring whether a Republican or Democrat won the election.

Next, Quinten Francois points out that “each U.S. election week has set a Bitcoin price floor that’s never been revisited.”

Zack Voell shows the percentage return 1-year after each election during bitcoin’s lifetime:

History may not repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme. Bitcoin doesn’t care who the President of the United States is. The digital currency continues to go higher over the long run.

Another data point that I found fascinating came from Bitwise’s Matt Hougan. He said “here are the total net flows since inception of the largest gold and bitcoin ETFs:

* GLD: $20.9b --- launched November 2004

* IBIT: $25.8b --- launched January 2024”

That is a mind-blowing comparison. Blackrock’s bitcoin ETF erased a 20 year head start for gold in less than 12 months.

Up next, let’s take a look at what investors are doing to position themselves going into the election today — Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas highlights the fact that investors appear to have no fear:

“NO FEAR: ETF investors shunning all hedges (VIX, inverse equities, gold, cash) while pouring cash into stocks heading into Election Day. In my opinion, investors have been conditioned to tune out scary headlines and keep buying.”

If you think Trump is going to win, you have been buying US equities. If you think Harris is going to win, you have been buying US equities. If you don’t care who becomes President, you have been buying US equities.

This fact is quite the narrative violation.

Financial markets love certainty. That is what we are all going to get by the end of the week. America will know who the next President of the United States will be. Investors will continue allocating capital according to the perceived policies.

There are plenty of people ready to pitch you the latest doomsday scenario, but I just don’t see that as a plausible future outcome right now. I would never bet agains the US economy or the American people.

The bulls are in control. The bears are in disbelief. Today will be a historic day. Sit back and enjoy the show.

Hope everyone has a great Tuesday. I’ll talk to you all tomorrow.

-Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

🚨 READER NOTE: I am co-hosting a conference with Lance Lambert and ResiClub on residential real estate in NYC this Friday, November 8th. We have many industry experts speaking about the housing market, impact of interest rates, effects on the US economy, and what investors should know moving forward.

The event has been quite popular, so remaining tickets are limited. If you would like to attend, please grab your tickets: Click here

Dylan LeClair Explains Why Corporations Are Putting Bitcoin On Their Balance Sheets

Dylan LeClair is the Director of Bitcoin Strategy at Metaplanet & Market Intelligence at UTXO Management.

In this conversation, we discuss bitcoin being put on the balance sheet of publicly traded companies, why it has created the best performing stocks in the entire world, what it means for all the individual businesses, and where he sees these companies going moving forward.

Enjoy!

Podcast Sponsors

* Blockstream Mining Note 2 (BMN2) is an EU registered and issued Bitcoin mining security token designed to outperform BTC returns. Learn more and view live analytics on our performance dashboard.

* Gemini - The future is being built today. Go Where Dollar’s Won’t. With Gemini.

* BetOnline is your #1 source for all your crypto sports and politichttp://gemini.com/gowheredollarswonts betting! Use our promo code POMP100 to receive a 100% matching bonus up to $1,000 on your first crypto deposit.

* Xapo - Xapo Bank is the only way to bank with Bitcoin. 

* Polkadot is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Innovation leader, making it a preferred choice for big names.

* ResiClub - Your data-driven gateway to the US housing market.

* Professional Capital Management - Anthony Pompliano’s asset management firm is now on Linkedin. Please subscribe by clicking here.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

To investors,

The President of the United States will be elected tomorrow. It is unclear how long it will take for ballots to be counted, but we will definitively know who is the next President by the end of the week.

There is a lot of uncertainty before we get that answer though.

We saw multiple polls conflict each other over the weekend. The famous Selzer poll in Iowa has Trump behind by 3 points, but the Emerson poll for Iowa has Trump ahead by more than 10 points. Which should you believe? I have no clue.

This is what feeds into the uncertainty. The “experts” on both sides are highly confident they are right, which means almost no one has any clue what is going to happen on Tuesday. This is a big reason why politics dominates the news cycle around election season.

People would be much less interested if we knew the answer to “who will be the next President of the United States?” But with that media coverage comes an immense amount of noise for investors.

Take prediction markets as an example. Trump was leading by 30 points last week. Trump was behind over the weekend. And Trump was back to winning by 6 points as of last night. That type of volatility can be excruciatingly painful for investors trying to make short-term decisions with their portfolio based on an unknowable event.

The prediction markets are not the only place where volatility is showing up. Bitcoin has been trading in a range between $50,000 and $70,000 for the last 6 months and the asset has only appreciated by about 7% during that half-year period.

Bitcoin was trading at ~ $60,000 on October 11th. It traded at more than $73,000 on October 30th. It trades at under $69,000 as of last night. Again, uncertainty brings volatility. Volatility brings noise.

So what are investors doing to prepare for this uncertainty?

Famed investors Paul Tudor Jones and Stanley Druckenmiller are both betting on things they believe to be certain — the increasing national debt and the debasement of the US dollar.

Each investor has given an interview in recent weeks to tout their investments in various stocks, gold, or bitcoin. They are concerned about inflation and the necessity of the US government to inflate away the debt. In a world of uncertainty, Paul and Stanley are trying to find the sure bets. And both political parties continue to increase the national debt.

Warren Buffett is taking a different approach. He has been selling off large portions of his investments in Apple, Bank of America, and other holdings. Berkshire Hathaway now has more than $325 billion in cash and the company holds more treasuries than the Federal Reserve.

Many commentators have taken the surging cash pile to signal Buffett’s belief that a market downturn could be right around the corner. While that may be part of the reason that Buffett is selling investments, there is another argument which may explain it even better — Warren Buffett is worried about taxes?

Based on Buffett’s answer from the Berkshire annual meeting about prior Apple sales, it may suggest so. Click this video and it will auto-play at the relevant part of the video.

Buffett points to the current fiscal situation as reasoning for his belief that higher taxes “are quite likely.” I don’t see many people equating this worry about future tax hikes to the increasing cash on Berkshire’s balance sheet.

Again, there is no single culprit for the selling, so it is important to understand as many reasons as you can.

Uncertainty rules the day. Investors are trying to navigate the noise.

But here is a nuanced view of the situation we find ourselves in today — stocks will be higher in 10 years, bitcoin will be higher in 10 years, real estate will be higher in 10 years, and bonds will keep losing value.

You have to study history to understand this view. I read a great book called The Gatekeepers over the weekend. The author, Chris Whipple, breaks down the Chiefs of Staff for every President since Richard Nixon. As you read the book, it becomes clear that each President faced crisis and daunting odds. Critics constantly predicted the demise of the United States or our economy under the leadership of the incoming President.

Thankfully, it never happened.

America is incredibly resilient. It thrives due to the geographical, economical, and demographical advantages. Structural advantages and trends rule the day.

How can you use this information today? Stop worrying about the President’s impact on your investment portfolio. It is unlikely that any one candidate can be destructive over the long run. Instead, focus on the long-term trends that are going to persist under both candidates.

The devaluation of the US dollar is probably the easiest trend to bet on moving forward. There are many ways to do it. How you choose to play it will determine the return you capture or the risk you fall victim to.

Buckle up your seatbelts. We are in for a bumpy week.

Hope you all have a great start to your Monday. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.

-Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

🚨 READER NOTE: I am co-hosting a conference with Lance Lambert and ResiClub on residential real estate in NYC this Friday, November 8th. We have many industry experts speaking about the housing market, impact of interest rates, effects on the US economy, and what investors should know moving forward.

The event has been quite popular, so remaining tickets are limited. If you would like to attend, please grab your tickets: Click here

Bitcoin’s Future Under Donald Trump and Kamala Harris

I sat down with Phil Rosen, co-founder and Editor-in-Chief of Opening Bell Daily, to discuss the Presidential election’s impact on various financial assets. We walk through the various candidates, their economic plans, and how it should impact stocks, bitcoin, and bonds.

Enjoy!

Podcast Sponsors

* Blockstream Mining Note 2 (BMN2) is an EU registered and issued Bitcoin mining security token designed to outperform BTC returns. Learn more and view live analytics on our performance dashboard.

* Gemini - The future is being built today. Go Where Dollar’s Won’t. With Gemini.

* BetOnline is your #1 source for all your crypto sports and politichttp://gemini.com/gowheredollarswonts betting! Use our promo code POMP100 to receive a 100% matching bonus up to $1,000 on your first crypto deposit.

* Xapo - Xapo Bank is the only way to bank with Bitcoin. 

* Polkadot is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Innovation leader, making it a preferred choice for big names.

* ResiClub - Your data-driven gateway to the US housing market.

* Professional Capital Management - Anthony Pompliano’s asset management firm is now on Linkedin. Please subscribe by clicking here.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

To investors,

Everyone wants bitcoin. That is becoming increasingly clear on a daily basis. We saw announcement after announcement this week proving the desirability of a scarce digital currency.

First, we saw Jimmy Patronis, CFO for the state of Florida, go on CNBC and advocate for bitcoin to be put on the state’s balance sheet.

Patronis highlighted the overreach of government surveillance, the debasement of the US dollar, and a path to resisting the woke policies of the current administration.

Next, we saw the central bank of Argentina open an “art exhibit” that features ASICs that are actively mining bitcoin.

This is the first central bank I am aware of that is mining bitcoin. Many people will point to the “art exhibit” label, but this looks like a clever way for the central bank to start mining bitcoin without sounding any alarms inside other countries or monetary authorities.

Next, MicroStrategy announced their intention to raise $42 billion in debt and equity over the next 3 years to purchase more bitcoin. They have already spent a few billion dollars in 2024, but the plan is to ramp up spending aggressively.

Lastly, Blackrock’s bitcoin ETF set a new record for single day inflow this week. More importantly, their ETF has seen the third largest inflows year-to-date of any ETF in financial markets.

As I said, everyone wants bitcoin, including individuals, financial institutions, corporations, and central banks. Satoshi created a piece of technology that solved one of the hardest problems in the world — protecting the purchasing power of people, companies, and governments.

An idea’s time has come.

Hope you all have a great end to your week. I’ll talk to everyone on Monday.

-Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

🚨 READER NOTE: I am co-hosting a conference with Lance Lambert and ResiClub on residential real estate in NYC on Friday November 8th. We have many industry experts speaking about the housing market, impact of interest rates, effects on the US economy, and what investors should know moving forward.

The event has been quite popular, so remaining tickets are limited. If you would like to attend, please grab your tickets: Click here

Bitcoin’s Future Under Donald Trump and Kamala Harris

I sat down with Phil Rosen, co-founder and Editor-in-Chief of Opening Bell Daily, to discuss the Presidential election’s impact on various financial assets. We walk through the various candidates, their economic plans, and how it should impact stocks, bitcoin, and bonds.

Enjoy!

Podcast Sponsors

* Blockstream Mining Note 2 (BMN2) is an EU registered and issued Bitcoin mining security token designed to outperform BTC returns. Learn more and view live analytics on our performance dashboard.

* Gemini is the safe and secure way to trade crypto. Use code Pomp100 and start trading crypto to earn $100 in BTC. 

* BetOnline is your #1 source for all your crypto sports and politics betting! Use our promo code POMP100 to receive a 100% matching bonus up to $1,000 on your first crypto deposit.

* Polkadot is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Innovation leader, making it a preferred choice for big names.

* Xapo - Xapo Bank is the only way to bank with Bitcoin. 

* ResiClub - Your data-driven gateway to the US housing market.

* Professional Capital Management - Anthony Pompliano’s asset management firm is now on Linkedin. Please subscribe by clicking here.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

To investors,

I have important news to share — I have reached an agreement with Hut 8 ($HUT), a publicly-traded company on Nasdaq, to become an advisor and help them scale the company.

In order to understand why I am spending my most valuable resource—my time— on this, we should start with some context.

Energy is one of the most valuable commodities in the world. Humans need energy to create a more abundant, prosperous future for our children. In fact, there is no high-income country that consumes a low amount of energy.

This trend is not going to reverse. As technology accelerates, so will energy consumption. Because of this relationship, a key investment theme of the future will be selling energy to the businesses willing to pay the highest price.

As a capitalist, I want to be an energy dealer.

It will be very valuable to own energy infrastructure that can service modern society. These energy infrastructure companies will sell their energy to people using GPUs for artificial intelligence, ASICs for bitcoin mining, and many other use cases. The new energy consumption use cases need a new energy infrastructure partner.

If I had unlimited money, I would invest a few billion dollars into building the premier energy infrastructure provider. Unfortunately, I don’t have unlimited dollars, so I have concluded the better thing to do is partner with the best energy infrastructure company I could find with the hopes of helping them scale.

This is where Hut 8 comes into the picture.

The company is a modern energy infrastructure provider. They are agnostic to the end use case. As long as Hut 8 can provide reliable, low-cost energy to their customers, someone will always be interested in buying available power.

Today the company has two types of customers — bitcoin miners and companies using artificial intelligence. There will be many other use cases in the future. When I went looking to become an energy dealer, it became obvious Hut 8 was already pursuing that strategy.

But I got more excited as I did more work looking at the company.

For example, Hut 8’s business can be broken down into three core components: power, infrastructure, and compute. Power is anything needed for power delivery generation before you get to the data center (land, substation, inter-connectivity, etc). Infrastructure is the data centers, both Tier 1 for bitcoin mining and Tier 3 for AI use cases. And compute is when Hut 8 owns hardware themselves and monetizes their power with ASICs or GPUs to generate additional revenue for their balance sheet.

The company has an advantage with these three layers. They can choose when to sell power to customers or monetize the power themselves. Follow the math. There will be times to sell the power to others and there will be times to sell the power to yourself.

Next, I love the setup of the company from a structure standpoint. The stock is owned by approximately 50% retail and 50% institutional today. But institutional ownership has been growing from around 10% to about 50% since February when the current CEO took over the company. I like holding stock that institutions are aggressively buying.

Hut 8 has just over 9,000 bitcoin on their balance sheet, yet they have less than 100 million shares outstanding. This means the company has low outstanding share count and they appear to have very low dilution year-to-date compared to other bitcoin-related publicly-traded companies.

Low share count. Disciplined treatment for equity owners. Lots of bitcoin on the balance sheet. All good signs in my opinion.

Next, we have to look at the leadership team. Hut 8 is led by Asher Genoot, who has done a great job of creatively structuring deals to give the corporation immense optionality in the future. Take their recent Bitmain deal as an example.

Bitmain signed a contract that will drive approximately $135 million in annual run-rate revenue to the business. That deal brings 15 exahash in bitcoin mining to Hut 8 facilities. But here is the catch — if bitcoin’s price goes down, Hut 8 gets paid as if they are a classic energy provider selling Bitmain energy. If bitcoin’s price goes up, Hut 8 can buy the ASIC machines from Bitmain at a pre-agreed, fixed price.

This type of deal gives Hut 8 an option on the future, while protecting the downside with an attractive outcome as well. Public market investors usually underestimate the importance of creative dealmaking when evaluating companies because it requires qualitative analysis that doesn’t fit into a spreadsheet.

Lastly, Blackrock is the largest shareholder of Hut 8 and Coatue has invested substantial money into the company. As if that wasn’t enough, Anchorage Digital recently converted millions of dollars of debt into equity in the business at a ~ 50% premium to the stock price at the time. Think about that for a second. One of the debt holders, who did not have convertible debt, decided to convert their debt into equity at a 50% premium to the current public market price.

That is the type of conviction I like to see in a company that I am involved with.

So this brings us to the question “what is Anthony Pompliano going to do to help Hut 8?” The simple answer lies in the biggest problem I see the company facing — they have done a bad job telling the market and the world what they do and how the company is progressing against their goals.

Imagine my surprise as I uncovered the various things I am writing about today. I spend a good amount of my time in the industry, yet I was completely oblivious about a number of these developments. If I was oblivious about them, imagine how uninformed everyone else is.

I want to be an energy dealer.

It is incredibly capital intensive to get into this business, so I am choosing to partner with Hut 8 rather than enter the business from scratch. They are going to keep building a leading energy provider that is focused on providing low-cost, reliable energy to industries that make up modern society.

I will help them communicate information to the proper parties. Together we have the chance to build a very large, profitable, and important company. Hut 8 is a ~ $1.6 billion company as of this morning, but I believe they can create tens of billions of dollars in market cap if everything goes right.

* You can learn more about the business on their website: Click here

* The company’s leadership team: Click here

* The stock ticker: HUT

Let’s see what happens. It is time to get to work.

Hope you all have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.

-Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

🚨 READER NOTE: I am co-hosting a conference with Lance Lambert and ResiClub on residential real estate in NYC on Friday November 8th. We have many industry experts speaking about the housing market, impact of interest rates, effects on the US economy, and what investors should know moving forward.

The event has been quite popular, so remaining tickets are limited. If you would like to attend, please grab your tickets: Click here

Sam Callahan Explains Bitcoin’s Performance Related To Global Liquidity

Sam Callahan writes simple, insightful updates on bitcoin called “The News Block Weekly Newsletter.”

In this conversation, we talk about global liquidity, why bitcoin is so sensitive to it, Paul Tudor Jones comments on bitcoin, companies putting bitcoin on balance sheets, interest rates, and where you can get smarter on a daily basis.

Enjoy!

Podcast Sponsors

* Blockstream Mining Note 2 (BMN2) is an EU registered and issued Bitcoin mining security token designed to outperform BTC returns. Learn more and view live analytics on our performance dashboard.

* Gemini is the safe and secure way to trade crypto. Use code Pomp100 and start trading crypto to earn $100 in BTC. 

* BetOnline is your #1 source for all your crypto sports and politics betting! Use our promo code POMP100 to receive a 100% matching bonus up to $1,000 on your first crypto deposit.

* Polkadot is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Innovation leader, making it a preferred choice for big names.

* Xapo - Xapo Bank is the only way to bank with Bitcoin. 

* ResiClub - Your data-driven gateway to the US housing market.

* Professional Capital Management - Anthony Pompliano’s asset management firm is now on Linkedin. Please subscribe by clicking here.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

To investors,

I published a 2-hour conversation with Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick yesterday. The reception has been very positive, including a number of people saying it is the best conversation we have ever recorded.

Howard and I spent a good amount of time talking about the national debt. I expected him to harp on the nearly $2 trillion annual deficit that the government runs and he did not disappoint. An interesting data point during this part of the conversation was Howard’s story about Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

Howard believes Elon can reduce government spending by approximately $500 billion per year. As you can imagine, Elon is excited about the challenge of finding inefficiency and firing bureaucrats. Think Elon slashing costs at Twitter post-acquisition, but for the government.

No one thinks the government is efficient. In fact, almost everyone agrees the government has a spending problem, but either through lack of courage or skill we have not had anyone able to wrangle the out-of-control spending from the politicians.

Maybe DOGE could be successful. Maybe not. But even if Howard, Elon, and the newly formed DOGE could reduce spending by $500 billion, that would still leave about $1.5 trillion annual deficit.

This is where things get interesting — Howard explains how a new administration could go on offense to drive more revenue for the federal government. By now you have probably heard the idea of using tariffs to increase revenue and decrease our dependence on foreign goods, but Howard shared another idea that I had not heard before.

The United States has a ~ $500 trillion balance sheet. We have never had an administration look at the balance sheet as an asset that can generate revenue. Howard’s idea is to use the significant assets to drive a 0.25% return or better annually.

This balance sheet is made up of buildings, land, mineral rights, and many other assets. Any revenue generated from the assets would help to close the additional deficit left over from whatever DOGE can reduce.

Is it possible? Maybe. It is nearly impossible to tell at the moment. But the idea of trying to pull these new levers is worth exploring. The spending problem is not going away, so we need to figure out other avenues for revenue without increasing taxes on individuals.

I rarely tell you all to watch an episode of the podcast, but this one is a “highly recommend” from me. Many viewers are saying it is the best episode we have ever published, regardless of which side of the aisle you sit on.

As a bonus, Howard tells his personal story at the end. The story is one of resilience and perseverance. He lost both his parents at a young age and then watched as more than 650 of his employees died in the September 11th attacks. Howard had a choice to rebuild the company and support the families of his colleagues, or he could have shut everything down and walked away.

Howard is a fighter. He rebuilt the company. And the story at the end of the conversation will bring you to tears.

You can watch the full conversation with Howard Lutnick here:

Hope you all have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.

-Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

🚨 READER NOTE: I am co-hosting a conference with Lance Lambert and ResiClub on residential real estate in NYC on Friday November 8th. We have many industry experts speaking about the housing market, impact of interest rates, effects on the US economy, and what investors should know moving forward.

The event has been quite popular, so remaining tickets are limited. If you would like to attend, please grab your tickets: Click here

Podcast Sponsors

* Blockstream Mining Note 2 (BMN2) is an EU registered and issued Bitcoin mining security token designed to outperform BTC returns. Learn more and view live analytics on our performance dashboard.

* Gemini is the safe and secure way to trade crypto. Use code Pomp100 and start trading crypto to earn $100 in BTC. 

* BetOnline is your #1 source for all your crypto sports and politics betting! Use our promo code POMP100 to receive a 100% matching bonus up to $1,000 on your first crypto deposit.

* Polkadot is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Innovation leader, making it a preferred choice for big names.

* Xapo - Xapo Bank is the only way to bank with Bitcoin. 

* ResiClub - Your data-driven gateway to the US housing market.

* Professional Capital Management - Anthony Pompliano’s asset management firm is now on Linkedin. Please subscribe by clicking here.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe