The Pomp Letter

Today’s letter is brought to you by Domain Money!

Wondering where to go for financial advice? Domain Money makes financial planning simple. No hidden fees and no sales pitches - you get a personalized roadmap to your goals, from dream vacations to retirement.

Flat-fee advisors create a plan tailored to you, with zero pressure to invest. Don’t be like most people who’ve never had a real conversation about their financial plan. Book a free strategy session today here.

While I'm not a Domain Money client and they are paying me, I've seen first hand the value of their service through the free plan they did for one of my brothers.

Yes, I might have an interest in promoting Domain Money, so just like any major financial decision, it's important you understand what the service is and if it's right for you so make sure to see this important disclaimer.

To investors,

Bitcoin has been one of the best performing assets in finance for years. This fact has been great for investors looking to optimize their returns compared to other financial investment opportunities.

But the vast majority of people on the planet are not investors. They are simply people trying to live their life and pursue happiness.

One of the major issues that creates friction for the average citizen is the debasement of their local currency. Given that ~ 50% of Americans have $0 in investment assets, these individuals continue to feel like they can’t get ahead. They are falling further behind. Everything around them is getting more expensive. Eventually they lose hope.

Thankfully, bitcoin can be a solution to the problem. Here is a graphic from Bitcoin Magazine showing the cost in US dollars and bitcoin for the median US home in 2016, 2020, and 2024.

Seeing the median home price in dollars nearly double is painful, but watching the same home price drop to 1/100th in bitcoin terms is incredible. This is the beauty of digital sound money.

With that said, people have become very excited about other crypto projects in the last two or three years. Many of these assets continue to perform well, and we know Wall Street loves volatility, so we shouldn’t be surprised.

Sam Wouters from River points out that bitcoin’s market cap continues to stand out despite the increasing interest in other assets:

“3 years ago, Bitcoin's market cap was ~$835B. Same for all the crypto stuff without stablecoins. Today, Bitcoin's market cap is up 37% ($1.15T) And the other stuff? -11% (not adjusted for inflation) It’s an insightful statistic to present to people who blindly “diversify”.”

Bitcoin doesn’t operate in a silo though. It is part of a larger financial system now. Both investors and savers have various options of where to store their economic value. Here is a short 1-minute from Tom Crown comparing saving $100 per month in US dollars, gold, and bitcoin.

Another way to view a similar analysis is to look at the compound annual growth rates of bitcoin, gold, and the S&P 500.

The bitcoin community is full of various characters. Some of the ideas coming out of the community are correct and many of them are outright ridiculous. One thing that is objectively true — bitcoiners nailed the asset’s ability to protect purchasing power over long periods of time.

It will be hard for sophisticated, institutional investors to ignore these type of dominance in financial markets. More importantly though, the average citizen now has a simple solution to an age-old problem of dollar debasement.

Hope you all have a great start to your week. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.

-Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

Alessandro Palombo is the Co-Founder of Unbound with a mission to design the future of global citizenship. They are using bitcoin indirect exposure to help you get a Golden Visa in Portugal.

In this conversation, we talk about how it works, risks, requirements, family implications, and the potential of expanding to other cryptos?

Listen on iTunes: Click here

Listen on Spotify: Click here

Overview of Golden Visa with Indirect Bitcoin Exposure

Podcast Sponsors

* Gemini is the safe and secure way to trade crypto. Use code Pomp100 and start trading crypto to earn $100 in BTC. 

* Xapo Bank is the only way to bank with Bitcoin. 

* CrossFi is the Apple Pay for Crypto. For the first time in history, anyone with a web 3 wallet can spend crypto through a physical or virtual Visa card where Visa is accepted.

* Domain Money makes financial planning straightforward and accessible. They tailor plans to your personal priorities and goals, whether it’s buying a house, funding college, or taking that dream vacation.

* Meanwhile is the world’s first licensed and regulated life insurance company built for the Bitcoin economy. 

* iTrustCapital allows you to buy and sell cryptocurrency in a tax-advantaged crypto IRA. Open and fund an account today to receive a $100 USD funding bonus.

* ResiClub - Your data-driven gateway to the US housing market.

* Professional Capital Management - Anthony Pompliano’s asset management firm is now on Linkedin. Please subscribe by clicking here.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

READER NOTE: Next Tuesday I am hosting a free webinar for anyone who is trying to transition into a new job in the bitcoin and crypto industry. Previously, my team and I have helped more than 3,000 people find a new role, so I will break down the lessons learned and provide specific and actionable advice on how to make the jump efficiently.

The event is completely free. I will be joined by people from BTC Inc. and Blockware who will share their experience in finding a new job.

To investors,

Bitcoin critic Nassim Taleb was on CNBC’s Squawk Box yesterday morning. The segment went exactly how you would expect it to go. Taleb was bearish, but he couldn’t provide a coherent argument on why bitcoin was not valuable in his opinion.

He rambled for a few minutes and shouted many hollow phrases that were designed to make him sound smart. If you pay attention to his words though, it becomes apparent that Taleb doesn’t even know what he is saying.

At one point, Taleb says bitcoin could go to $1 million, but he will always think the digital currency is a speculative asset regardless of what happens. I took this as an intellectual hedge from the professor, which signals he knows he is wrong but can't bring himself to admit it publicly.

You have to watch the full segment to appreciate how ridiculous the bitcoin critics have become:

I have been in and around the bitcoin community for almost a decade. The people in our industry have spent hundreds of hours studying the technology, the network, and the various critiques. They are incredibly intelligent. Most of them are open-minded and constantly seek to understand where they may be wrong.

This is why the industry’s critics stand almost no chance of being on the right side of history. They haven’t done the work. They rarely have a clear argument that can be backed up by facts. And they almost always hide behind empty buzz words that would make the biggest pessimist jealous.

In the same breath, Taleb asks Joe Kernen how much bitcoin he used to purchase his coffee and then extolls the greatness of gold. The critic (or maybe “the troll” is a better label at this point?!) forgets to mention that no one is using gold to buy their coffee either.

Bitcoin has very serious risks, including technical challenges related to scalability, enhanced privacy, and a need for increased decentralized infrastructure. But nothing Taleb said in yesterday’s interview is a real critique.

My favorite part is when Taleb continues repeating that bitcoin is a speculative tool. He thinks that is a slight, but somehow fails to realize that every financial asset is a speculative tool. Every stock, bond, currency, and commodity. It is all speculation about what is going to happen in the future.

You have to take risk to capture a return. Some assets have more risk, while others have less risk. But everything in finance is a risk. Holding US dollars is a risk. You could even argue that holding US dollars has been a bigger risk than holding bitcoin over the last 5 years. Bitcoin has protected your purchasing power and the dollar has not.

Finance is one large casino. People make decisions daily based on their future expectations. Hearing Taleb attack bitcoin in this manner is probably a sign that bitcoin has officially become the best table in the casino. It makes sense that people who are sitting at the other, less desirable tables would verbally attack it. It is intellectual projection of an important conclusion — Nassim Taleb realizes he is wrong about bitcoin.

A few years ago, Taleb wrote the following as the conclusion to a research paper titled Bitcoin, Currencies, and Fragility:

“We have presented the attributes of the blockchain in general and bitcoin in particular. Few assets in financial history have been more fragile than bitcoin.

The customary standard argument is that ‘bitcoin has its flaws but we are getting a great technology; we will do wonders with the blockchain’. No, there is no evidence that we are getting a great technology — unless "great technology" doesn’t mean "useful". And at the time of writing —in spite of all the fanfare — we have done still close to nothing with the blockchain.

So we close with a Damascus joke. One vendor was selling the exact same variety of cucumbers at two different prices. "Why is this one twice the price?", the merchant was asked. "They came on higher quality mules" was the answer.

We only judge a technology by how it solves problems, not by what technological attributes it has.”

Arguing that bitcoin is fragile, or has not solved any problem at all, may be the most ridiculous position you could take in critiquing the asset.

Larry Fink vs Nassim Taleb. Paul Tudor Jones vs Nassim Taleb. Stanley Druckenmiller vs Nassim Taleb. Hundreds of millions of bitcoin holders vs Nassim Taleb.

Choose wisely.

For a guy who wrote two of the best finance books in history, it is unlikely history will be kind to him on the bitcoin topic.

Hope you all have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.

-Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

Kenny DeGiglio is the Co-Founder of Dream Startup Job and Crypto Academy. Anthony and Kenny have helped over 3,000 people get a job in bitcoin & crypto.

In this conversation, we discuss the transition into bitcoin & crypto industry, levering up your skillset, best way to build relationships, tricks to get recruiters attention, importance of a proof-of-work project, knowing how to sell yourself, likability, and compensation potential in crypto.

Listen on iTunes: Click here

Listen on Spotify: Click here

Anthony Pompliano Explains Why Stocks and Bitcoin Dropped Earlier This Week

Podcast Sponsors

* Gemini is the safe and secure way to trade crypto. Use code Pomp100 and start trading crypto to earn $100 in BTC. 

* Xapo Bank is the only way to bank with Bitcoin. 

* CrossFi is the Apple Pay for Crypto. For the first time in history, anyone with a web 3 wallet can spend crypto through a physical or virtual Visa card where Visa is accepted.

* Domain Money makes financial planning straightforward and accessible. They tailor plans to your personal priorities and goals, whether it’s buying a house, funding college, or taking that dream vacation.

* Meanwhile is the world’s first licensed and regulated life insurance company built for the Bitcoin economy. 

* iTrustCapital allows you to buy and sell cryptocurrency in a tax-advantaged crypto IRA. Open and fund an account today to receive a $100 USD funding bonus.

* ResiClub - Your data-driven gateway to the US housing market.

* Professional Capital Management - Anthony Pompliano’s asset management firm is now on Linkedin. Please subscribe by clicking here.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

Today’s letter is brought to you by Domain Money!

Wondering where to go for financial advice? Domain Money makes financial planning simple. No hidden fees and no sales pitches - you get a personalized roadmap to your goals, from dream vacations to retirement.

Flat-fee advisors create a plan tailored to you, with zero pressure to invest. Don’t be like most people who’ve never had a real conversation about their financial plan. Book a free strategy session today here.

While I'm not a Domain Money client and they are paying me, I've seen first hand the value of their service through the free plan they did for one of my brothers.

Yes, I might have an interest in promoting Domain Money, so just like any major financial decision, it's important you understand what the service is and if it's right for you so make sure to see this important disclaimer.

To investors,

Panic started to set in for market participants at the end of last week. It only got worse last night. Japan’s Nikkei suffered the worst decline since 1987 over the last 24 hours.

This has caused fear to spread throughout markets, particularly related to the carry trade being executed by investors to leverage the depreciated JPY currency. You can see the issue here:

“Since 2023 (at least), speculators borrowed money in Japan at near-zero interest rates. They converted their borrowed yen into dollars, and bought the Nasdaq 100. That drove the yen further down and the Nasdaq 100 further up. This "carry trade" has been unraveling in recent weeks…as the yen continued to soar in response to the Bank of Japan's recent tightening moves.”

The panic started last week, which saw numerous technology stocks experiencing double-digit drawdowns from their recent highs:

* Apple -6%

* Meta -10%

* Microsoft -12%

* Amazon -17%

* Adobe -18%

* Nvidia -20%

* Broadcom -23%

* Tesla -25%

* Qualcomm -30%

* AMD -37%

These types of drawdowns get people antsy. They want to know when the market will turn around. One answer is dependent on the Presidential election — the stock market has been trading hand-in-hand with the prediction odds that Donald Trump will win the Presidential election in November.

But Trump’s prediction odds dropping is not the only thing spooking investors. Many people are pointing to the Sahm Rule as evidence that the United States has entered a recession.

The Kobeissi Letter wrote:

“The Sahm Rule recession indicator surged to 0.53 in July from 0.43, suggesting the US economy is in a recession. The Sahm Rule signals a downturn once the unemployment rate increases 0.5 percentage points above its previous 12-month low. After the unemployment rate jumped to 4.3% in July from 4.1% in June, the Rule has been triggered. Over the last 65 years, there has not been a single occurrence where this indicator provided a false signal. Also, every time the threshold has been breached, the unemployment rate surge accelerated.”

If the Sahm Rule has 100% accuracy for recession predictions in the past, we should all be very worried, right? Not so fast. Claudia Sahm, the inventor of the metric, stated she doesn’t think we are already in a recession:

“We’re not in a recession…we are in a place where things have slowed…the momentum is not good.”

“The Sahm rule is likely overstating the labor market's weakening due to unusual shifts in labor supply caused by the pandemic and immigration.”

So two things are important to keep the current market dynamics in context — first, the US economy has been on an epic run over the last decade or so. Hidden Harbor’s John Caple points out that decade-long performance with this chart:

Second, Creative Planning’s Charlie Bilello highlights that all but one of the technology stocks that everyone is focused on remain positive on the year:

The market is down. Unemployment is up. Fear is overriding rational thinking from investors. So the question is — should you panic?

I don’t think so. The Fed has approximately 5.5% of interest rate cuts that it can use to juice the market if we get closer to a recession. Most people are expecting the central bank to start those cuts in September, which would be right on time to avoid some serious market downturn.

Wharton’s Jeremy Siegel went on CNBC this morning and said, “I'm calling for a 75 basis point emergency cut in the Fed funds rate, with another 75 basis point cut indicated for next month at the September meeting - and that's minimum.”

That would be a significant change in monetary policy if the Fed was to follow Siegel’s guidance.

I think of this situation as a military battle. We were firing every bullet we had in 2020 (interest rate cuts, printing trillions, etc) and it worked. The market responded exactly how we wanted. But since the end of 2021, the Fed was able to restock our ammunition. They raised interest rates so now we have plenty of cuts in front of us if we need them.

The bullets are reloaded. If a recession tries to appear, the Fed will fire away with everything they got and I expect the market to respond exactly like we want. The Federal Reserve has perfected the playbook of quantitative easing.

They can ease with the best of them. And that may be exactly what the market needs in the coming months. Let’s see what happens.

Hope you all have a great start to your week. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.

-Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

Reader Note: Today is a free email available to everyone. If you would like to receive these letters each morning, please subscribe to become a paying member of The Pomp Letter by clicking here.

Jeremy Allaire is the Co-Founder, Chairman, and CEO of Circle.

In this conversation, we talk about USDC, what it is, where it is popular, who is using it, why they are using it, and the future of stablecoins.

Listen on iTunes: Click here

Listen on Spotify: Click here

Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire on the Stablecoin Market

Podcast Sponsors

* Gemini is the safe and secure way to trade crypto. Use code Pomp100 and start trading crypto to earn $100 in BTC. 

* Xapo Bank is the only way to bank with Bitcoin. 

* CrossFi is the Apple Pay for Crypto. For the first time in history, anyone with a web 3 wallet can spend crypto through a physical or virtual Visa card where Visa is accepted.

* Domain Money makes financial planning straightforward and accessible. They tailor plans to your personal priorities and goals, whether it’s buying a house, funding college, or taking that dream vacation.

* Meanwhile is the world’s first licensed and regulated life insurance company built for the Bitcoin economy. 

* iTrustCapital allows you to buy and sell cryptocurrency in a tax-advantaged crypto IRA. Open and fund an account today to receive a $100 USD funding bonus.

* ResiClub - Your data-driven gateway to the US housing market.

* Professional Capital Management - Anthony Pompliano’s asset management firm is now on Linkedin. Please subscribe by clicking here.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

Today’s letter is brought to you by Domain Money!

Wondering where to go for financial advice? Domain Money makes financial planning simple. No hidden fees and no sales pitches - you get a personalized roadmap to your goals, from dream vacations to retirement.

Flat-fee advisors create a plan tailored to you, with zero pressure to invest. Don’t be like most people who’ve never had a real conversation about their financial plan. Book a free strategy session today here.

While I'm not a Domain Money client and they are paying me, I've seen first hand the value of their service through the free plan they did for one of my brothers.

Yes, I might have an interest in promoting Domain Money, so just like any major financial decision, it's important you understand what the service is and if it's right for you so make sure to see this important disclaimer.

To investors,

The Bitcoin Conference did not disappoint. There is way too much to cover in one letter, so I am going to focus on the four speeches that I believe are most noteworthy.

First, Microstrategy’s Michael Saylor gave a presentation on bitcoin, including his vision on how the asset can improve financial markets and his bull and bear case for the future asset price. You can watch the full presentation here.

Saylor used annual rates of return between 21% and 37% for the next 21 years to determine his three potential price outcomes.

It may surprise some to see Saylor’s bear case of $3 million per bitcoin, but remember this is over the next two decades.

That would put bitcoin’s annual return at approximately 2x the S&P 500 each year. The annualized return for the last 5 years is over 40% and you can see the year-by-year returns below.

Given the asset has a fixed supply, and the dollar continues to be debased at a healthy rate, it doesn’t seem crazy for bitcoin to increase in price by 21% a year for the next two decades.

Next, Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. gave a rousing speech that called for the United States to purchase 4 million bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset. His plan would be for the country to purchase 550 bitcoin per day until the full 4 million are purchased.

This sounds like a great idea on the surface, but I highly doubt it is mathematically possible. You can see that more than 50% of bitcoin’s circulating supply has not moved in over 2 years and the general trend is that bitcoin is becoming more illiquid over time.

This means it is hard to see a world where one country will be able to acquire ~ 20% of the bitcoin total supply. Again, the general strategy and idea are compelling, but it is more likely that the United States could acquire 1 million bitcoin, which would still make them one of the largest bitcoin holders in the world.

On Saturday, former President Donald Trump gave his highly anticipated speech. He hit almost every major talking point that the audience wanted to hear, including comments saying the cardinal sin of bitcoin was selling your bitcoin and professing that “bitcoin is going to the moon.”

Here is a summary from Reflexivity Research’s Will Clemente of the main talking points:

Notably, Trump did not call for purchasing more bitcoin at the national level. He chose to advocate for the US government to hold on to the approximately 200,000 bitcoin that is already in the government’s possession.

Instead of calling this bitcoin a “strategic reserve,” Trump chose to call it a “strategic stockpile.” Although that may sound like semantics, it suggests that Trump is not planning to back the US dollar with bitcoin or any other type of reserve activity.

This idea of a strategic stockpile from the leading Presidential candidate immediately makes me think other Presidents and countries around the world are going to be creating their bitcoin strategy this week. They can’t allow the game theory to leave them on the wrong side of history.

Another interesting point during Trump’s speech was the reaction to Trump’s promise to fire SEC Chairman Gary Gensler. You can see the Presidential candidate was shocked by the crowd’s support, so he chose to repeat the line with a degree of showmanship. This was another sign that Trump is quickly ramping up his pro-bitcoin support in an effort to court the growing voter cohort.

Speaking of political support for the industry, it is important to remember that everything we are hearing so far is talk. It is ultimately action that matters. Promises sound great. We won’t know till after the election whether any political candidate will actually do what they say they are going to do.

Lastly, Senator Cynthia Lummis followed Trump’s speech with a major announcement — proposed legislation that would require the US government to buy 1 million bitcoin (worth ~ $68 billion). Her thought process is that these bitcoin would be held for a minimum of 20 years and could help bring down the US debt.

Lummis stated “This is our Louisiana purchase moment,” which refers to the prescient investment of $15 million the US made to purchase 530 million acres of land from France in the early 1800s.

Overall, the bitcoin conference was filled with many amazing speakers and lots of announcements. The Bitcoin Magazine team did a fantastic job from the various talks. You can watch them all online by clicking here.

Hope everyone has a great start to their week. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.

-Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

Reader Note: Today is a free email available to everyone. If you would like to receive these letters each morning, please subscribe to become a paying member of The Pomp Letter by clicking here.

James Davolos is a Portfolio Manager at Horizon Kinetics.

In this conversation, we discuss oil & gas coming together with bitcoin mining & AI data centers, what is going on down in Texas, how the companies work, impact on artificial intelligence, bitcoin mining, data centers, and where the world is headed.

Listen on iTunes: Click here

Listen on Spotify: Click here

How Bitcoin Miners Are Embracing The AI Revolution

Podcast Sponsors

* Domain Money makes financial planning simple. No hidden fees and no sales pitches - you get a personalized roadmap to your goals, from dream vacations to retirement.

* CrossFi is the Apple Pay for Crypto. For the first time in history, anyone with a web 3 wallet can spend crypto through a physical or virtual Visa card where Visa is accepted.

* Domain Money makes financial planning straightforward and accessible.

* Meanwhile is the world’s first licensed and regulated life insurance company built for the Bitcoin economy. 

* iTrustCapital allows you to buy and sell cryptocurrency in a tax-advantaged crypto IRA. Open and fund an account today to receive a $100 USD funding bonus.

* BetOnline -  Use crypto to bet on sports, casino games, horse racing, poker and more with promo code POMP100.

* ResiClub - Your data-driven gateway to the US housing market.

* Professional Capital Management - Anthony Pompliano’s asset management firm is now on Linkedin. Please subscribe by clicking here.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

To investors,

President Joe Biden announced yesterday that he would not be seeking re-election in November. This is the latest development in an already chaotic Presidential election season, which has included criminal convictions, assassination attempts, and debates around the cognitive abilities of older candidates.

To add to the chaos, Biden announced his decision to leave the race via a written statement on Twitter. There was no press conference. There was no pre-recorded video. Just a typed-out statement and a hand-written signature, which is now being wildly questioned as to whether the signature is actually the President’s or not.

Regardless of those details, there is a high degree of uncertainty at the moment. This is when you would expect bitcoin to shine. The digital currency is supposed to be a certainty due to its structure, dependability, and resilience.

It appears that is exactly what happened. Bitcoin was trading under $67,000 right before Biden’s announcement. The currency then jumped more than 2% post-announcement. Uncertainty increased and so did bitcoin demand.

My read on this is that bitcoin is performing as you would expect given the circumstances. This is a positive sign. It is not the lone positive sign in the crypto market though.

Bitwise’s Alyssa Choo pointed out recently there was $2.8 trillion of stablecoin transaction volume in Q2, which is an all-time high.

This is a clear signal from the market that people want US dollars on digital rails. We should only expect this demand to continue increasing over time given the long-term trend.

DACM’s Richard Galvin highlighted that DEX market share has hit a new all-time high as well.

This is interesting because it proves that capital is flowing towards decentralized trading venues. People will debate why market participants are doing this, but it is hard to ignore the data showing that it is happening.

Another data point that is impossible to ignore at this point is capital flowing into crypto funds. Jonah van Bourg tweeted the cumulative flows are at a multi-year high.

Lastly, VanEck’s Matthew Sigel shows that Polymarket open interest is growing parabolically lately. People want prediction markets.

These five charts tell me one thing — crypto is working in a way that was previously questionable. It may have taken longer than everyone wanted, but there are trillions of dollars sloshing around this new digital financial system.

Bitcoin is storing value during uncertain times. Prediction markets are beating the mainstream news to stories. Investors are putting capital to work in the industry. And stablecoins are becoming an important part of the global financial system.

Great things take time to build. It is cool to see the industry starting to hit its stride.

Hope you all have a great start to your week. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.

-Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

Phil Rosen, the Co-Founder of Opening Bell Daily, and Anthony Pompliano, CEO of Professional Capital Management, discuss small cap vs big tech, future outlook for interest rate cuts, what Trump trade means for investors & impact on bitcoin, and Jamie Dimon change of mind on bitcoin?

Listen on iTunes: Click here

Listen on Spotify: Click here

Anthony Pompliano on Whether The Trump Trade Is Sustainable

Podcast Sponsors

* Domain Money makes financial planning simple. No hidden fees and no sales pitches - you get a personalized roadmap to your goals, from dream vacations to retirement.

* CrossFi is the Apple Pay for Crypto. For the first time in history, anyone with a web 3 wallet can spend crypto through a physical or virtual Visa card where Visa is accepted.

* Domain Money makes financial planning straightforward and accessible.

* Meanwhile is the world’s first licensed and regulated life insurance company built for the Bitcoin economy. 

* iTrustCapital allows you to buy and sell cryptocurrency in a tax-advantaged crypto IRA. Open and fund an account today to receive a $100 USD funding bonus.

* BetOnline -  Use crypto to bet on sports, casino games, horse racing, poker and more with promo code POMP100.

* ResiClub - Your data-driven gateway to the US housing market.

* Professional Capital Management - Anthony Pompliano’s asset management firm is now on Linkedin. Please subscribe by clicking here.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

To investors,

Changing your mind when new facts are presented should be encouraged. It is a sign of intelligence.

One example of this from earlier in the week was JD Vance’s selection as the Republican candidate for Vice President. Vance previously had been a Never Trumper. He had shared harsh criticisms of the former President and condemned Trump’s actions. 

But Vance claims he eventually changed his mind. 

When asked this week what happened, here is what he said:

“I allowed myself to focus so much on the stylistic element of Trump that I completely ignored the way in which he substantively was offering something very different on foreign policy, on trade, on immigration.”

But JD Vance is not the only person changing his mind these days.

It was reported yesterday that JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon has changed his opinion on bitcoin recently.

This information came from Trump, who is considering Dimon for Treasury Secretary, during an interview about the star banker. 

Now remember, Jamie Dimon is not a random bitcoin hater. He is one of the MVPs of the bitcoin hating team. Dimon previously said he would fire anyone who was trading bitcoin at the bank. He also called bitcoin a fraud and a ponzi scheme.

If you took a poll of the bitcoin community, there would be a very low probability that anyone would think Jamie Dimon was going to change his mind.

But that is what all great investors and entrepreneurs do. They change their mind when presented with new information.

And the information on bitcoin is overwhelming at this point.

There are hundreds of millions of people who use the digital currency around the world. Bitcoin is the strongest computer network ever created. The digital currency is one of the only assets to have protected an individual’s purchasing power against the accelerated inflation of the last few years. Governments are also becoming sympathetic from a legal and regulatory standpoint as well.

These data points add up to one thing — bitcoin is succeeding and the asset is likely to continue on the current trajectory into the future.

Let’s see what Dimon does. If he comes out in public support of bitcoin, things will get very crazy. He is the most well-respected banker of our generation. And if he capitulates, bitcoin can officially claim victory on Wall Street.

Hope you all have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.

-Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

Kian Sadeghi is the Founder & CEO of Nucleus Genomics.

In this conversation, we talk about DNA sequencing, how he is disrupting the old school companies, why he believes so much in giving power to the people, taking control of your health with your DNA, regulation, ethics, and more.

Listen on iTunes: Click here

Listen on Spotify: Click here

Nucleus CEO on Genetics Behind Intelligence

Podcast Sponsors

* Domain Money makes financial planning simple. No hidden fees and no sales pitches - you get a personalized roadmap to your goals, from dream vacations to retirement.

* CrossFi is the Apple Pay for Crypto. For the first time in history, anyone with a web 3 wallet can spend crypto through a physical or virtual Visa card where Visa is accepted.

* Domain Money makes financial planning straightforward and accessible.

* Meanwhile is the world’s first licensed and regulated life insurance company built for the Bitcoin economy. 

* iTrustCapital allows you to buy and sell cryptocurrency in a tax-advantaged crypto IRA. Open and fund an account today to receive a $100 USD funding bonus.

* BetOnline -  Use crypto to bet on sports, casino games, horse racing, poker and more with promo code POMP100.

* ResiClub - Your data-driven gateway to the US housing market.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

READER NOTE: There are over 800 Bitcoin-only businesses and 2,500+ Bitcoin-focused companies with thousands of open job roles.

Next week I'm hosting a webinar with BitcoinTalentCo who will provide a masterclass for how to get a Bitcoin job. These open roles span everything from engineers to customer service — if you want to work in the bitcoin industry then you should attend to learn.

Register for free here:

To investors,

There is a big difference between getting rich and solving a real problem in society. The promise of capitalism is that these two ideas will overlap in a meaningful way.

Entrepreneurs take immense risk to identify a problem, design a novel solution, implement their product or service, and receive a financial reward for improving the lives of other people or companies.

However, I am noticing the emergence of something slightly different in the last 12 months when talking to various friends.

There are numerous people who seem to be optimizing for getting rich without solving a real problem in society. These individuals have concocted a variety of schemes that end with them capturing monetary value, although it is unclear where the value was created.

Let me give you a few examples of what I am talking about.

First, bitcoin is a product that protects the purchasing power for anyone who holds it. The debasement of fiat currencies will only continue, so having a piece of technology that can protect you from undisciplined monetary and fiscal policy is objectively valuable. Because of this value that is created, the people who buy the asset early and hold it over the long run will accumulate wealth.

Value created, value captured.

Second, use meme coins as the counterexample. These assets are being traded freely on various exchanges and thousands of individual investors are winning or losing money. There is no clear value creation that is occurring though. Some will argue there is an entertainment value to the coins, but that is a stretch given how stressed out most of the meme coin investors are constantly.

No clear value created, yet value is being captured.

We can look outside of crypto for examples as well. Amazon, Google, and Facebook have obviously created tons of value for users. You can press a button on your phone and products you purchased will show up within days. You can ask any question and get an answer. You can communicate with billions of people globally in an instant.

Immense value created, immense value captured.

But use the “product flipping” culture as the counterexample. There are many young people across social media bragging about making tens of thousands, or hundreds of thousands, of dollars by arbitraging the price of a random product. They purchase the product off Alibaba and resell it on Amazon.

The money falling into these young people’s pockets is real, but the value being created is less obvious.

So lets bring this idea back to the crypto industry.

I have been thinking at length about how much value is being created in the industry. Not how much value is being captured, but how much is being created. It is clear that bitcoin is one product that has good product-market fit. Another product with similar product-market fit is stablecoins. There are trillions of dollars in transaction volume coming from these assets.

After those two products, the answer to this question gets a little murky. Some will argue decentralized exchanges, others will argue smart contract platforms. It is hard to dispute the popularity of these products, but going back to the nuanced question — how much value is being created vs how much value is being captured.

The hard part about this question is no perfect answer exists. You can’t quantify the value created. It is the typical “you know it when you see it,” which makes analyzing the situation difficult.

But I present this question as a thought starter for each of you going into the weekend. The promise of bitcoin seems to be coming to fruition. The promise of crypto more broadly is still in the early innings, but the more we can focus on “value created” instead of “value captured,” the better off we will be as an industry.

Hope everyone has a great weekend. I’ll talk to you on Monday.

-Anthony Pompliano

Kian Sadeghi is the Founder & CEO of Nucleus Genomics.

In this conversation, we talk about DNA sequencing, how he is disrupting the old school companies, why he believes so much in giving power to the people, taking control of your health with your DNA, regulation, ethics, and more.

Listen on iTunes: Click here

Listen on Spotify: Click here

Nucleus CEO on Genetics Behind Intelligence

Podcast Sponsors

* CrossFi is the Apple Pay for Crypto. For the first time in history, anyone with a web 3 wallet can spend crypto through a physical or virtual Visa card where Visa is accepted.

* Domain Money makes financial planning straightforward and accessible.

* Meanwhile is the world’s first licensed and regulated life insurance company built for the Bitcoin economy. 

* iTrustCapital allows you to buy and sell cryptocurrency in a tax-advantaged crypto IRA. Open and fund an account today to receive a $100 USD funding bonus.

* BetOnline -  Use crypto to bet on sports, casino games, horse racing, poker and more with promo code POMP100.

* Espresso Displays - The world's thinnest touchscreen portable monitor. Expand your workspace and work from anywhere.

* ResiClub - Your data-driven gateway to the US housing market.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

To investors,

For the last two years, I have been quietly building Professional Capital Management — a new investment firm.

The new firm takes a very different approach to compounding capital. First, the world is becoming more uncertain and less serious. Society is going to need professionals to step up and solve important problems.

A professional is obsessed with being the best. They seek new information and constantly want to improve. A professional takes responsibility for their successes and their failures. A professional does not complain.

Professionals know what it takes to succeed and they hold those around them to a higher standard. A professional never gives up. The only option for a professional is to win.

The idea of a "professional" is so important to me that I chose to make it the first word in the name of the firm.

Second, I recognize that an investment firm built to thrive in the future will have to be flexible enough to invest capital AND build companies from scratch.

Over the last two years, Professional Capital Management has cofounded and operated nine profitable companies across various industries. By building and scaling these companies, we are able to solve real problems and compound capital at an attractive rate.

I waited two years to talk about our work because I wanted to make sure we produced results before I ever mentioned it publicly. We are actively building new companies that will be announced in the coming weeks, along with deploying capital in the public and private markets.

Personally, I will continue to invest out of my family office (Pomp Investments) and be a large LP in Professional Capital Management's funds. The new firm will allow outside investors to invest alongside me as well.

If you are interested in cofounding a company with us or learning about our investment business, please send a message at http://professionalcapital.com

Professional Capital Management has been my full-time focus for the last two years and I am excited to continue building the firm with our team. As we make more progress, I will share some of the results from the companies we build and the investments we make.

Hope you all have a great day. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.

-Anthony Pompliano

Here is my segment from CNBC this morning discussing bitcoin & stablecoins:

Mike Maples is a Founding Partner at Floodgate, and the author of a brand new book called, “Pattern Breakers: Why Some Start-Ups Change The Future.”

In this conversation, we talk about startup capitalism vs corporate capitalism, how startups win, evaluating founders, stress testing ideas, pattern breaking actions, embracing chaos, finding opportunities, startup investments, and his new book.

Listen on iTunes: Click here

Listen on Spotify: Click here

Floodgate’s Mike Maples Explains How To Find $1 Billion Startups

Podcast Sponsors

* CrossFi is the Apple Pay for Crypto. For the first time in history, anyone with a web 3 wallet can spend crypto through a physical or virtual Visa card where Visa is accepted.

* Domain Money makes financial planning straightforward and accessible.

* Meanwhile is the world’s first licensed and regulated life insurance company built for the Bitcoin economy. 

* iTrustCapital allows you to buy and sell cryptocurrency in a tax-advantaged crypto IRA. Open and fund an account today to receive a $100 USD funding bonus.

* BetOnline -  Use crypto to bet on sports, casino games, horse racing, poker and more with promo code POMP100.

* Espresso Displays - The world's thinnest touchscreen portable monitor. Expand your workspace and work from anywhere.

* ResiClub - Your data-driven gateway to the US housing market.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

To investors,

Housing affordability has hit the lowest point since 2007 according to a recent article in Bloomberg. Prashant Gopal writes:

“Owning a house is less affordable for average earners in the US than at anytime in 17 years.

The costs of a typical home — including mortgage payments, property insurance and taxes — consumed 35.1% of the average wage in the second quarter, the highest share since 2007 and up from 32.1% a year earlier, according to a new report from Attom.

Growth in expenses, along with mortgage rates hovering around 7%, have outpaced income gains as a persistent shortage of listings pushed the median home price to a record-high $360,000, Attom said. In more than a third of US markets, ownership costs ate up 43% of average local wages, far above the 28% considered to be a guideline for affordability.”

This coverage is timely because I published an interview with ResiClub’s Lance Lambert yesterday breaking down the four main contributors to the explosion in a lack of affordability.

According to Lance, here are the four major drivers:

* Home prices exploded after demand skyrocketed and housing supply could not keep up. This imbalance in supply and demand led to the market overheating. We had never seen home prices go up 21% nationally in a single year, yet that is what happened.

* Wage growth has not kept pace with the home price growth. Home prices are up about 51% so far in the 2020s, but wages are only up approximately 20% during the same timeline.

* Mortgage rates have gone from the 2-3% range to the 6-8% range in about 2 years. This was created by the fastest interest rate hikes in history and has made the carrying costs of home ownership significantly higher.

* Home insurance and home repair costs have drastically increased due to the inflation shock experienced across the US economy. From 2018 - 2021, only one time did a state see the average home insurance premium jump 10% or more in a single year. Compare this to last year, which saw 25 states have a 10% or more jump in home insurance premiums. A big driver of these increasing home insurance premiums is the rapid cost increase for home repairs, which Lance estimates is up approximately 50% over the last few years.

You can sign up for Lance’s daily analysis for free here: https://www.resiclubanalytics.com/

These inputs are important to watch because they will determine if housing affordability will get better or worse in the coming months. Why does housing affordability matter to this audience?

Other than it directly impacting home prices for you too, home affordability is likely one of the largest inputs to financial nihilism — the feeling many Americans have where they will never be able to get ahead.

This loss of hope drives higher degrees of gambling and risk-taking. It contributes to a lack of interest in seeing your local community thrive. It is hard to be productive when you can’t see a bright future ahead.

The American Dream was built on the idea that anyone could build a life of health, wealth, and happiness. You could come from any location, speak any language, pray to any higher power, and you would be able to create a living for yourself and own a home for your family.

There are millions of Americans who are wondering what happened to that dream. An easy way for us to avoid the American Dream turning into the American Nightmare is to work across the economy to bring home affordability back to attractive levels.

We must build more housing. We must use technology to lower home repair costs. We must leverage a free market interest rate to return the cost of capital to sane levels. And we must educate individuals on the various opportunities and strategies for them to get on the path to home ownership.

It is not easy to turn around a situation like this, but it is possible. And if there is one thing we have learned over the last few decades — never bet against America.

Hope you all have a great day. I will not be writing for the next two days due to 4th of July in the US. I will talk to everyone on Monday.

-Anthony Pompliano

Lance Lambert is the Co-Founder & Editor-in-Chief at ResiClub. He is also the former Real Estate Editor at Fortune Magazine, and is the foremost expert in residential real estate.

In this conversation, we talk about the 4 reasons why houses are so expensive, as it is the most unaffordable housing market we have had in history. This is a major crisis for the US economy, and people need to understand what it will take to get us out of this.

Listen on iTunes: Click here

Listen on Spotify: Click here

Podcast Sponsors

* CrossFi is the Apple Pay for Crypto. For the first time in history, anyone with a web 3 wallet can spend crypto through a physical or virtual Visa card where Visa is accepted.

* Domain Money makes financial planning straightforward and accessible.

* Meanwhile is the world’s first licensed and regulated life insurance company built for the Bitcoin economy. 

* iTrustCapital allows you to buy and sell cryptocurrency in a tax-advantaged crypto IRA. Open and fund an account today to receive a $100 USD funding bonus.

* BetOnline -  Use crypto to bet on sports, casino games, horse racing, poker and more with promo code POMP100.

* Espresso Displays - The world's thinnest touchscreen portable monitor. Expand your workspace and work from anywhere.

* ResiClub - Your data-driven gateway to the US housing market.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

To investors,

US Treasuries have long been considered the risk-free return. You could buy these assets, hold them to maturity, and you were guaranteed a pre-determined return. There was no risk because the return was paid by the US government and no one seriously worries about a US default that would prevent Treasury holders from being paid.

I don’t believe this is the correct way of viewing the world anymore though. US Treasuries are now a return-free risk.

Read that again. Return-free risk.

What do I mean? Investors who are chasing the illusion of yield are facing a near certainty their capital will be destroyed by the lackluster performance of the bonds. Use $TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) as an example.

The ETF is down 8.5% in the last 6 months.

The 1-year performance is worse at negative 12%.

And the 5 year performance shows a whopping 32% decline.

It doesn’t matter how much yield you thought you were getting paid, holding bonds delivered no return and lots of risk. Imagine what happens when interest rates retract to lower levels in the coming months too.

This flipping of risk-free return in US Treasuries to return-free risk will be a defining development for the next decade in finance. Trillions of dollars are sitting in a global 60/40 portfolio with US Treasuries as a major component of their asset allocation. At some point, common sense must win out over doctrine.

This brings me to another development that seems to be happening simultaneously — bitcoin is becoming the risk-free return for digital natives.

In the same way that US Treasuries were the “safe” asset that was backed by the US government, bitcoin is becoming the “safe” asset that is backed by the strongest computer network in the world. That may sound insane to traditional investors, but I hear and see it from digital natives every day.

They view bitcoin as their reserve asset which gives them the greatest confidence over the long run. They view bitcoin as a resilient asset that will continue to appreciate into the future. There is no real “risk” of the asset going to zero. There is no worry about a bleak future for the asset built to survive centuries.

These digital natives are also using bitcoin as a benchmark for investment decisions. Can I allocate to X or Y and achieve a higher rate of return than bitcoin? This sounds similar to traditional investors asking “why would I invest in X or Y when I can earn 5% on T-bills right now?”

Treasuries are becoming the return-free risk and bitcoin is becoming the risk-free return. The transition from the traditional doctrine to the new one will be slow and steady, yet it is inevitable. Things in motion tend to stay in motion.

If you haven’t started thinking about this transition, you should start doing it now. The implications are going to be far-reaching. And you are likely to change some of your investment decisions because of it.

Have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.

-Anthony Pompliano

Alex Thorn is the Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy Digital.

In this conversation, we talk about bitcoin, bitcoin mining, ETFs, regulation, politics, global adoption, potential problems, token unlocks, Galaxy Digital, and more.

Listen on iTunes: Click here

Listen on Spotify: Click here

My Conversation with Galaxy’s Alex Thorn

Podcast Sponsors

* CrossFi is the Apple Pay for Crypto. For the first time in history, anyone with a web 3 wallet can spend crypto through a physical or virtual Visa card where Visa is accepted.

* Domain Money makes financial planning straightforward and accessible.

* Meanwhile is the world’s first licensed and regulated life insurance company built for the Bitcoin economy. 

* iTrustCapital allows you to buy and sell cryptocurrency in a tax-advantaged crypto IRA. Open and fund an account today to receive a $100 USD funding bonus.

* BetOnline -  Use crypto to bet on sports, casino games, horse racing, poker and more with promo code POMP100.

* Espresso Displays - The world's thinnest touchscreen portable monitor. Expand your workspace and work from anywhere.

* ResiClub - Your data-driven gateway to the US housing market.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe