Collective Intelligence, Prediction Markets, and AI with Emil Servan-Schreiber
In this inaugural episode, the hosts delve into an insightful conversation with Emil Servan-Schreiber, a pioneering thinker in prediction markets and collective intelligence. Emil shares his extensive background, from studying cognitive psychology and AI in the 1980s to his entrepreneurial journey establishing companies like News Futures, Lumin Logic, Hypermind, and Forecasting Machine. The discussion covers the evolution of prediction markets, the concept of super forecasters, and their remarkable accuracy in domains like epidemiology and military forecasting. Emil also highlights compelling use cases, such as a crowd forecasting platform supporting the Ukrainian government amid ongoing conflicts. The episode explores the efficacy of play money versus real money models, and Emil presents key collective intelligence principles from his book 'SuperCollectif,' stressing the importance of diversity and independent thinking. Looking forward, Emil envisions new frontiers linking AI and collective intelligence, advocating for government investment in AI-driven intelligent tutoring to enhance human cognitive abilities.
00:00 Introduction and Guest Overview
00:32 Emil's Background and Early Career
01:41 Transition to Prediction Markets
02:25 Evolution of Emil's Companies
05:01 Government Interest and Super Forecasting
08:57 Use Cases and Applications
12:33 Prediction Markets vs. Prediction Polls
18:35 Collective Intelligence and Its Importance
25:35 Future of AI and Collective Intelligence
28:55 Conclusion and Final Thoughts
Links:
- The Hypermind public prediction market: http://predict.hypermind.com
- The (AI) Forecasting Machine: http://theforecastingmachine.com
- Free PDF of the English version of my book on Supercollective Intelligence
