The Prediction Trade

Mark Vargas has more than earned his political insider credentials as the so-called "mystery man" who achieved the impossible: nearly single-handedly brokering Trump's commutation of former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich's 14-year prison sentence. But that's not all. Vargas also assisted in securing Roger Stone's recent commutation. He tells the full story, as well as sharing his insights on Jared Kushner, Kanye West, Mark Cuban, Michael Flynn & Paul Manafort that you don't want to miss. In Part 2, Vargas reveals some high-value prediction market trades, including a shocking Luckbox Lockbox trade! Follow Mark on Twitter @MarkAVargas and listen to him and former Gov. Blagojevich on the "Lightning Rod" podcast. TRENDS The Blagojevich Standard Kushner & Kanye Passing a Stone Haley & Cuban Ivanka 2024 TRADES Flynn Flam Money on Manafort Trump: I Beg My Pardon What's Special About Georgia? Popping in on Kim Jong-Un THE LUCKBOX LOCKBOX Hint: Silent Mojo   The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine.  Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT TPT newsletter, ask questions, follow us and give feedback and guest ideas: thepoliticaltrade.com Open your Predictit account with our promo code and we'll match the first $20 you invest: predictit.org/promo/TPT20   Follow us... TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag FACEBOOK: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag INSTAGRAM: @tptpodcast @luckboxmag YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp

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David Rothschild rings the TPT bell, and Nate Silver's ears are ringing. Rothschild, a Microsoft Research data scientist and economist, breaks down prediction markets and takes down FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver in a discussion about the relative merits of polling vs. prediction markets. In Part 2, Rothschild enters the trading pits and serves up Electoral College and Florida trading ideas.  Follow Rothschild on Twitter @DavMicRot TRENDS Does Kamala Harris Move the Needle? Does Nate Silver Deserve Some Needling? TRADES Betting Biden Better No, Joe Isn't Gonna Go House Rules Florida (C'mon) Man THE LUCKBOX LOCKBOX Hint: Name That ATM (HRC)   The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine.  Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT TPT newsletter, ask questions, follow us and give feedback and guest ideas: thepoliticaltrade.com More Free Money?  Open your Predictit account with our promo code and we'll match the first $20 you invest: predictit.org/promo/TPT20 Follow us... TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag FACEBOOK: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag INSTAGRAM: @tptpodcast @luckboxmag YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp

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Longtime prediction market trader Travis Lloyd, known to PredictIt traders as "baselevel," brings more than just an impressive (and verified) tale of how he turned a $50 investment into $120,000. He also brings scotch! Travis shares some of his political insights, a trick he uses for achieving upwards of a third of his returns, why he's negative on negative risk and three trade ideas. TIPPLES Glenlivet 15, FEW Bourbon & Usquaebach's An Ard Ri TRENDS The Lincoln Project Goes Down-Ballot & Stone Commutes Home TACTICS Negative on Negative Risk & Trading the YES Side of Liquid Markets TRADES "Two-Cent Tammy" Returns to TPT in the Teens Strong Buy in the Maine Matchup: Collins v Gideon Flynn Clemency — Profit, Without Prediction THE LUCKBOX LOCKBOX Hint: Esper de Corpse The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine.  Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT TPT newsletter, ask questions, follow us and give feedback and guest ideas: thepoliticaltrade.com Open your Predictit account with our promo code and we'll match the first $20 you invest: predictit.org/promo/TPT20 Take our listener survey: https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/3V6XFZX Follow us... TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag FACEBOOK: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag INSTAGRAM: @tptpodcast @luckboxmag YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp

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Washington Post data analyst and political columnist David Byler talks partisanship and the BLM movement's likely impact on the upcoming presidential election. In the TRADES segment, he enters the PredictIt trading pits with 12 forecasts, including seven state general elections, Mike Pence, the Democratic VP and yet another Luckbox Lockbox trade! Subscribe to David's weekly newsletter, The Odds, where he shares what we can — and can't — know about the 2020 election here: https://t.co/d6naS4Kp6p?amp=1   The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine.  Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT   TPT newsletter, ask questions, follow us and give feedback and guest ideas: thepoliticaltrade.com   Open your Predictit account with our promo code and we'll match the first $20 you invest: predictit.org/promo/TPT20   Follow us... TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag FACEBOOK: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag INSTAGRAM: @tptpodcast @luckboxmag YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp

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This year's Fourth of July saw fireworks not only erupting in the sky, but also on social media following a viral tweet by Kanye West. The rapper, singer, songwriter, record producer, composer, entrepreneur, and fashion designer may soon don a new title: presidential candidate. In this breaking news episode of TPT, we go through the biggest stories moving the markets on PredictIt, dedicating special attention to West's potential presidential bid and what it means for the stakes of the 2020 election. The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine.  Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT TPT newsletter, ask questions, follow us and give feedback and guest ideas: thepoliticaltrade.com More Free Money?  Open your Predictit account with our promo code and we'll match the first $20 you invest: predictit.org/promo/TPT20 Follow us... TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag FACEBOOK: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag INSTAGRAM: @tptpodcast @luckboxmag YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp

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Equipped with raw intuition and unique insights, Dylan Ratigan returns in Part 2, ready to tackle the prediction markets of PredictIt. Wasting no time, Dylan walks through a total of 10 markets, sharing the picks he thinks have the highest probability in each. TRADES include: Handicapping Biden's health through November, Senate control, the Electoral College and Michelle Obama's fandom. Dylan then jumps to Trump mispricing and ends the episode with the highest-payout "Luckbox Lockbox" trade suggestion to date. The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine.  Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT TPT newsletter, ask questions, follow us and give feedback and guest ideas: thepoliticaltrade.com Open your Predictit account with our promo code and we'll match the first $20 you invest: predictit.org/promo/TPT20 Follow us... TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag FACEBOOK: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag INSTAGRAM: @tptpodcast @luckboxmag YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp

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Dylan Ratigan has so much to say about what is wrong with politics today, it took two episodes. We begin by asking Dylan to revisit his memorably viral on-air MSNBC rant. Also in Part 1, Dylan riffs on partisanship, redistricting, ranked balloting, running for office, the two-party system and prediction markets' political biases. The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine. Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT TPT newsletter, ask questions, give feedback and guest ideas at thepoliticaltrade.com Join in on the wagering at predictit.org/promo/TPT20 and we'll match the first $20 you invest. Follow us... TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag FACEBOOK: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag INSTAGRAM: @tptpodcast @luckboxmag YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp

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Not all headlines are clickbait — at the request of a TPT listener, this episode explains the ins and outs of a political prediction market strategy that results in free money! It's called "Negative Risk." Tricky at first, but TPT super trader Scott "Sazerac" Supak uses the Democratic VP market to illustrate the trading tactic where the house pays you back for each new trade. TPT Mailbag Rachel Bitecofer, PredictIt's Tweet Retreat & A Letter From Johnny Ringo TACTICS The Ultimate Intro to Mastering Negative Risk (101) TRADES Balance of Power in D' House & D' Senate The Highs & Lows of Trump's Approval THE LUCKBOX LOCKBOX Hint: Riding the Pence Train Scott Supak's negative risk calculator: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1seDM8xaboXSNOba_d6D0cABd2huHrzLpWacabODKKVc/edit#gid=0  For more negative risk training, follow Scott Supak on Twitter @ssupak. The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine. Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT TPT newsletter, ask questions, give feedback and guest ideas at thepoliticaltrade.com More Free Money? Join in on the wagering at predictit.org/promo/TPT20 and we'll match the first $20 you invest. Follow us... TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag FACEBOOK: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag INSTAGRAM: @tptpodcast @luckboxmag YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp

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In this special episode, we walk Rachel "the Doc" Bitecofer, the hottest hand in election handicapping, into the political trading pit for her very first time. She earned her cred by nailing the 2018 midterms, and her 2020 election model is the talk of the Beltway. So we put her to work, talking through more than a dozen prediction markets and sharing her most promising forecasts. Part 1: Profiting From Political Partisanship (2:47) Part 2: The Election Whisperer Rings the TPT Trading Bell (19:52) TRADES The Electoral College Bets, Trump & the Popular Vote, Key Senate Races & the Veepstakes Take our first-ever listener survey here: https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/3V6XFZX   The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine. Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT TPT newsletter signup, ask questions, give feedback and guest ideas at thepoliticaltrade.com Join in on the wagering at predictit.org/promo/TPT20 and we'll match the first $20 you invest.   Follow us... TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag FACEBOOK: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag INSTAGRAM: @tptpodcast @luckboxmag YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp

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Against the backdrop of President Trump's Twitter feuds and recent executive order regarding social media censorship, TPT enlists super trader Derek Phillips (the $400,000 man from Episodes 5 and 6) to tackle PredictIt's notorious tweet markets, currently accounting for as much as 80% of his prediction market fortune. Secrets shared—must listen. TRENDS (10:23) Executive Orders, Recession & Minny-markets TACTICS (22:21) Mastering the Tweet Markets: Monetizing the Middle with the Phillips Condor TRADES (38:17) North Carolina & the Red State Blues Dental Floss Tycoon (hat tip Frank Zappa) Tammy Two-Cents Returns (from Episode 2) THE LUCKBOX LOCKBOX (52:03) Hint: What HRC and an ATM Have in Common    The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine. Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT TPT newsletter signup, ask questions, give feedback and guest Ideas at thepoliticaltrade.com Join in on the wagering at predictit.org/promo/TPT20 and we'll match the first $20 you invest. Follow us... TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag FACEBOOK: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag INSTAGRAM: @tptpodcast @luckboxmag YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp

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