Rob looks at the complexities surrounding the Bank of England's current monetary policy, particularly its base rate, which is held at 4.75%. With the next decision set for February 6, 2025, Rob highlights the challenges posed by persistent inflation, currently reported at 2.6%, and the implications for the mortgage and property markets. 

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• The Bank of England has maintained the base rate at 4.75%, with the next decision scheduled for February 6, 2025. There are concerns about the potential for sticky and rising inflation, which complicates the decision-making process regarding interest rates.
• The official inflation rate is reported at 2.6%, but there is skepticism about this figure. Many believe that actual inflation is higher, especially when considering everyday expenses like fuel and groceries. The economic environment is characterised by persistent inflation and flatlining growth.
• The recent autumn budget has raised concerns about stagflation, where the economy experiences stagnant growth alongside high inflation. This situation poses significant challenges for the Bank of England in managing monetary policy.
• The Bank faces a difficult choice: keeping interest rates high to combat inflation could harm the mortgage and housing markets, while lowering rates might exacerbate inflation and create a housing bubble. This creates a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" scenario.

BEST MOMENTS

"The Bank of England held rates at 4.75%. The official inflation rate... is at 2.6%. But if you put fuel in your car or go to the supermarket, you're probably finding that prices are going up a little bit more than that."

"They're almost in a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation... If they keep rates up to deal with inflation, then mortgages and the housing market might struggle."

"Rachel Reeves also somehow managed to produce a budget that was inflationary and possibly at the same time deflationary. I'm not sure I've ever seen that before in my life."

"Energy is the economy. Without being self-sustained in energy, that's going to lead to all sorts of issues."

"If you lower rates, I just think it's gonna lead to a much bigger drop moving forward."

VALUABLE RESOURCES

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Property FAQs = https://amzn.to/3MWfcL4  

Buy To Let: How To Get Started = https://amzn.to/3genjle  

101 Top Property Tips = https://amzn.to/2NxuAQL  

uk property, Investment, Property, Rent, Buy to let, Investing for beginners, Money, Tax, Renting, Landlords, strategies, invest, housing, properties, portfolio, estate agents, lettings, letting, business: https://patreon.com/tpnpodcast

Rob discusses the recent decline in house prices in London, highlighting that while the media may exaggerate the situation, the reality shows only modest decreases in certain boroughs. Using data from Halifax, he explores the implications of these trends, noting that London often sets the tone for the rest of the UK housing market. 

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• House prices in London have seen a slight decline, with areas like Westminster and Ealing experiencing drops of 3.5% and nearly 5%, respectively. However, these declines are not as dramatic as some reports suggest.
• London has a high house price to earnings ratio of 8.22, making it one of the least affordable places in the UK, compared to the national average of 6.55.
• While some areas in London are experiencing price declines, other regions in the UK, such as Stoke-on-Trent and Slough, have seen significant increases in house prices, with rises of 17.2% and 15%, respectively.
• London often sets the trend for the rest of the UK housing market. A decline in London’s house prices could lead to similar trends in other regions, indicating potential challenges ahead for the national housing market.
• Despite current fluctuations, demand for housing in the UK remains higher than supply. This creates opportunities for investors, especially if they are prepared to act quickly when prices drop further.

BEST MOMENTS

"House prices have tumbled across swathes of London, but in reality, they're down by a couple of percent."

"London has a house price to earnings ratio of 8.22, making it one of the least affordable places to live in the country."

"If London is doing well housing-wise, chances are the rest of the country is going to be doing well housing-wise."

"There are always opportunities in the market, and demand for housing in the UK is significantly higher than supply."

"If a lot of the boroughs are starting to see declines in house prices, then that will have a ripple effect on the rest of the country."

VALUABLE RESOURCES

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https://propertyfundingplatform.com/WharfFinancial#!/borrowerinitialregistration

SOCIAL MEDIA/CONTACT US

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BOOKS 

Property FAQs = https://amzn.to/3MWfcL4  

Buy To Let: How To Get Started = https://amzn.to/3genjle  

101 Top Property Tips = https://amzn.to/2NxuAQL  

uk property, Investment, Property, Rent, Buy to let, Investing for beginners, Money, Tax, Renting, Landlords, strategies, invest, housing, properties, portfolio, estate agents, lettings, letting, business: https://patreon.com/tpnpodcast

Rob shares bold predictions for 2025, including expectations for gold prices to soar to $3,000 before retreating to $2,200, and a worldwide recession that could surpass the Great Depression of 1929. He speculates on political changes, predicting that Sir Keir Starmer will be ousted as Prime Minister by the end of the year. Additionally, there are forecasts for oil prices to drop to $50 a barrel and the Bank of England's base rate to decrease to 4%, accompanied by rising inflation. 

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• It is anticipated that gold will rise to $3,000 before experiencing a sell-off down to $2,200, influenced by market trends and potential economic downturns.
• A significant worldwide recession is predicted for 2025, potentially worse than the Great Depression of 1929, driven by unsustainable financial practices and market valuations.
• There is an expectation that Sir Keir Starmer will be ousted as Prime Minister, leading to the installation of a new Prime Minister by the end of the year.
• Oil prices are projected to drop to $50 per barrel for Brent crude, influenced by economic slowdowns and recession fears.
• The Bank of England's base rate is expected to decrease to 4%, while inflation is predicted to rise again, despite current figures suggesting lower rates.

BEST MOMENTS

"Sir Keir Starmer will be ousted as Prime Minister... I think something's going to happen where he is ousted as Prime Minister."

"Oil has been slowly going on a downward spiral for a while... that will normally send oil lower."

"I believe that the Bank of England will drop that down to 4%. That wouldn't be the right thing to do at all, in my opinion, but I believe it will happen."

"I think a new international monetary system will be officially announced... it could be anything."

VALUABLE RESOURCES

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https://propertyfundingplatform.com/WharfFinancial#!/borrowerinitialregistration

SOCIAL MEDIA/CONTACT US

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BOOKS 

Property FAQs = https://amzn.to/3MWfcL4  

Buy To Let: How To Get Started = https://amzn.to/3genjle  

101 Top Property Tips = https://amzn.to/2NxuAQL  

uk property, Investment, Property, Rent, Buy to let, Investing for beginners, Money, Tax, Renting, Landlords, strategies, invest, housing, properties, portfolio, estate agents, lettings, letting, business: https://patreon.com/tpnpodcast

Rob reflects on his property finance and macro predictions for 2024, assessing the accuracy of each forecast made at the beginning of the year. The predictions covered a range of topics, including gold prices, the Bank of England's base rate, the commercial property market, house prices, oil prices, and a wildcard prediction regarding the U.S. presidential election...

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• The prediction that gold would hit $2,500 was accurate, with gold peaking at $2,800 later in the year, marking it as one of the best-performing assets.
• The expectation that the Bank of England would increase its base rate to at least 7% was incorrect, as the rate remained significantly lower, around 4.5% to 4.75%.
• The prediction of a collapse in the commercial property market did not materialise, as the market remained stable in the UK despite some global concerns.
• The forecast that house prices would increase by 5% year-on-year was also incorrect, with data showing a slight decline of 0.3% compared to the previous month.

BEST MOMENTS

"The first prediction was that gold would hit $2,500 amid economic meltdown. Now, I'm going to give myself a point for this because gold certainly hit $2,500 at the latter end of the year."

"The second prediction was that the Bank of England would increase its base rate to at least 7%. This is completely incorrect. I haven't fared well with this."

"The third prediction was that the commercial property market collapses. Again, I have to give myself a big X on the spot for that one. That hasn't happened."

VALUABLE RESOURCES

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https://propertyfundingplatform.com/WharfFinancial#!/borrowerinitialregistration

SOCIAL MEDIA/CONTACT US

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BOOKS 

Property FAQs = https://amzn.to/3MWfcL4  

Buy To Let: How To Get Started = https://amzn.to/3genjle  

101 Top Property Tips = https://amzn.to/2NxuAQL  

uk property, Investment, Property, Rent, Buy to let, Investing for beginners, Money, Tax, Renting, Landlords, strategies, invest, housing, properties, portfolio, estate agents, lettings, letting, business: https://patreon.com/tpnpodcast

Rob examines the complexities of green energy policy and its implications for individuals and property investors in the UK. Emphasising the need for a cleaner and greener environment, the discussion highlights the potential economic burdens that may arise from the government's aggressive decarbonisation goals by 2030. 

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• The current green energy policies in the UK are viewed as unsustainable and potentially harmful to the economy, leading to higher energy bills for households and property investors.
• The goal to decarbonise the electricity grid by 2030 is seen as unrealistic, with significant changes required that may not be suitable for the population, potentially resulting in increased costs.
• Nuclear energy is presented as the cleanest and most reliable baseload energy source, necessary for achieving a greener grid, especially as wind and solar are intermittent and cannot solely meet energy demands.
• The push for green energy and the associated subsidies will ultimately lead to increased standing charges and energy prices, affecting lower-income households the most and creating a cycle of financial strain.

BEST MOMENTS

"What the government in the UK are trying to do is not sustainable and not suitable, and it really is making us all poorer."

"To decarbonise the electricity grid in five years is, in my opinion, not good."

"Nuclear really is the answer... if you want a greener grid and an abundance of electricity, nuclear is the way forward."

"We're making ourselves poorer by design... all of those investments, all of those subsidies get passed along to us through a standing charge."

"When you tell them it's gonna cost them hundreds and possibly thousands of pounds per person, that's when you're gonna get resistance."

VALUABLE RESOURCES

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/new-green-energy-bill-warning-amid-threat-of-120-rise/ar-AA1v8w07?ocid=winp2fptaskbar&cvid=f5ffd35f0a5e4935b1341555a0bc4b46&ei=9

GET YOUR PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT FINANCE HERE:

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SOCIAL MEDIA/CONTACT US

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BOOKS 

Property FAQs = https://amzn.to/3MWfcL4  

Buy To Let: How To Get Started = https://amzn.to/3genjle  

101 Top Property Tips = https://amzn.to/2NxuAQL  

uk property, Investment, Property, Rent, Buy to let, Investing for beginners, Money, Tax, Renting, Landlords, strategies, invest, housing, properties, portfolio, estate agents, lettings, letting, business: https://patreon.com/tpnpodcast

Rob looks at the impending ban on gas boilers in new homes, set to take effect in 2027 as part of the government's Future Homes Standard aimed at reducing carbon emissions. He delves into the implications of this legislation for developers and homeowners, highlighting concerns about increased construction costs, potential planning issues, and the strain on the electricity grid. 

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Gas Boiler Ban: The UK government plans to ban gas boilers in new homes starting in 2027 as part of the Future Homes Standard aimed at reducing carbon emissions.
• The transition to electric heat pumps and non-gas alternatives is expected to increase construction costs, which will likely be passed on to homebuyers, potentially making housing less affordable.
• The shift to electric heating systems raises concerns about the capacity of the electricity grid, which may struggle to handle the increased demand, leading to potential reliability issues.
• Relying solely on electric heat pumps could create vulnerabilities, as a power outage would leave homes without heating or hot water, emphasizing the need for backup systems.
• The current energy policies are viewed as flawed, with high electricity prices and a lack of diverse energy options, leading to skepticism about the effectiveness and sustainability of the proposed changes.

BEST MOMENTS

"Gas boilers are likely to be banned in new homes from 2027 as part of legislation being brought forward by the government."

"If you're trying to force everyone down this net zero route, what is going to happen is that the cost of putting in heat pumps... would increase."

"You're putting all your eggs in one basket... if the grid goes down and you're running off a heat pump, then you're screwed."

"Banning gas boilers, not a good thing in my opinion... they're making us poorer, I think, by design."

"We should always have the option, if you want gas, have gas. If you don't want gas and you want a heat pump, go for it."

VALUABLE RESOURCES

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https://propertyfundingplatform.com/WharfFinancial#!/borrowerinitialregistration

SOCIAL MEDIA/CONTACT US

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BOOKS 

Property FAQs = https://amzn.to/3MWfcL4  

Buy To Let: How To Get Started = https://amzn.to/3genjle  

101 Top Property Tips = https://amzn.to/2NxuAQL  

uk property, Investment, Property, Rent, Buy to let, Investing for beginners, Money, Tax, Renting, Landlords, strategies, invest, housing, properties, portfolio, estate agents, lettings, letting, business: https://patreon.com/tpnpodcast

Rob extends warm Christmas and New Year wishes to you, the listeners while encouraging you to take a break from business stresses and enjoy quality time with family and friends. He shares valuable tips for reflecting on the past year and planning for the upcoming one, emphasising the importance of goal setting and strategic networking in the property market. 

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• The holiday season is a valuable opportunity to spend quality time with friends and family, allowing for a mental break from business stresses and personal challenges.
• Use the festive period to reflect on the past year, assess what went well and what didn’t, and set clear goals for the upcoming year. Writing down these goals is crucial for achieving them.
• Consider evaluating current property strategies and exploring new ones. Rob highlights the importance of being open to new opportunities in the property market, even if they weren't previously on your radar.
• Networking should be strategic rather than just a numbers game. Identify specific goals for networking, such as finding new partners or resources, and ensure that your efforts are focused and productive.

BEST MOMENTS

"It's always nice every once in a while to take your mind off of other things, maybe business stresses or things in your personal life."

"Half the time, goal setting is very important, because it's okay having it in your head, but once you've written it down, that's the first step to achieving it."

"There are always deals out there. There are always opportunities out there."

"When you go networking, what are you looking to try and do? What's the aim of networking?"

VALUABLE RESOURCES

GET YOUR PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT FINANCE HERE:

https://propertyfundingplatform.com/WharfFinancial#!/borrowerinitialregistration

SOCIAL MEDIA/CONTACT US

https://linktr.ee/thepropertynomadspodcast

BOOKS 

Property FAQs = https://amzn.to/3MWfcL4  

Buy To Let: How To Get Started = https://amzn.to/3genjle  

101 Top Property Tips = https://amzn.to/2NxuAQL  

uk property, Investment, Property, Rent, Buy to let, Investing for beginners, Money, Tax, Renting, Landlords, strategies, invest, housing, properties, portfolio, estate agents, lettings, letting, business: https://patreon.com/tpnpodcast

Rob discusses the impending landlord exodus expected to impact the UK housing market from 2025 onwards. Citing the latest English Private Landlord Survey, he highlights a significant increase in landlords considering selling their properties, rising from 22% in 2021 to 31% in 2024. The discussion delves into the various factors contributing to this trend, including recent legislative changes, rising mortgage costs, and the challenges posed by the Renters Reform Bill.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• A significant increase in landlords considering selling their properties is anticipated, with the percentage rising from 22% in 2021 to 31% in 2024. This trend could lead to a decrease in rental housing supply.
• The potential exodus of landlords may result in higher rental prices due to decreased supply, despite the government's intentions to protect renters through new legislation.
• Recent legislation, including the Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) regulations and the Renters Reform Bill, has contributed to landlords' decisions to sell, as many feel the environment has become increasingly unfavourable.
• Rising mortgage costs and inflation are putting additional pressure on landlords, making it more challenging to maintain profitability in the rental market.

BEST MOMENTS

"There will be a devastating landlord exodus that will hit Britain from 2025 onwards, and it's a culmination of a lot of factors."

"If the supply of available housing for rent decreases... then what happens is an increase in prices."

"Just under two-thirds have blamed the recent legislation changes for the decision."

"Landlords have been operating in an increasingly unfriendly environment."

"If all these properties were sold... that leaves a smaller pool of rental properties that are available."

VALUABLE RESOURCES

GET YOUR PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT FINANCE HERE:

https://propertyfundingplatform.com/WharfFinancial#!/borrowerinitialregistration

SOCIAL MEDIA/CONTACT US

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BOOKS 

Property FAQs = https://amzn.to/3MWfcL4  

Buy To Let: How To Get Started = https://amzn.to/3genjle  

101 Top Property Tips = https://amzn.to/2NxuAQL  

uk property, Investment, Property, Rent, Buy to let, Investing for beginners, Money, Tax, Renting, Landlords, strategies, invest, housing, properties, portfolio, estate agents, lettings, letting, business: https://patreon.com/tpnpodcast

Rob looks into the alarming findings of the English Private Landlord Survey of 2024, revealing that over a third of landlords are raising rents by at least 15% for new tenancies. This surge in rental prices has sparked outrage among renter groups, prompting calls for government intervention to address the escalating costs of housing. The discussion highlights the increasing number of landlords planning to reduce their portfolios, the challenges of energy efficiency in rental properties, and the reluctance of many landlords to accept tenants on housing support. 

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Over a third of landlords are increasing rents by at least 15% for new tenancies, leading to significant concern from renter groups and calls for government intervention.
• The proportion of landlords planning to reduce their portfolios or sell properties has increased from 22% in 2021 to 31%, indicating a growing sentiment among landlords to exit the market.
• A significant number of landlords (47%) have properties with a D rating or below for energy performance, yet only 35% plan to improve energy efficiency, suggesting potential financial constraints or unwillingness to invest.
• A notable percentage of landlords (38%) are unwilling to rent to individuals receiving housing support, and 47% are hesitant to accommodate tenants requiring adaptations for disabilities, reflecting a challenging rental landscape for vulnerable groups.

BEST MOMENTS

"Over a third of landlords are apparently raising rent by at least 15% for new tenancies."

"Nearly a fifth of those raising the rent on existing tenants did so by a whopping 15 percent or more."

"Eye-watering rents put this out of reach for too many."

"If you put a price cap on something, it's gonna have an inadvertent effect on the people you're trying to protect."

"Unless people want to look into that and admit why this is happening in the first place, I'm not sure we're going to come up with any useful solutions moving forward."

VALUABLE RESOURCES

GET YOUR PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT FINANCE HERE:

https://propertyfundingplatform.com/WharfFinancial#!/borrowerinitialregistration

SOCIAL MEDIA/CONTACT US

https://linktr.ee/thepropertynomadspodcast

BOOKS 

Property FAQs = https://amzn.to/3MWfcL4  

Buy To Let: How To Get Started = https://amzn.to/3genjle  

101 Top Property Tips = https://amzn.to/2NxuAQL  

uk property, Investment, Property, Rent, Buy to let, Investing for beginners, Money, Tax, Renting, Landlords, strategies, invest, housing, properties, portfolio, estate agents, lettings, letting, business: https://patreon.com/tpnpodcast

Rob discusses a troubling case involving a landlord, Nick Lyons, who faces a £10,000 bill after his rental property in South London was turned into a cannabis farm by tenants who sublet the property without his consent. He highlights the challenges landlords face in the current rental market, particularly regarding tenant protections and the importance of regular property inspections. 

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Landlords should ensure that regular property inspections are conducted, whether managed personally or through an agent. This helps identify potential issues before they escalate.
• It's crucial for landlords to maintain open lines of communication with their property management agents. If inspections are being denied or not conducted, landlords should be informed promptly to address the situation.
• Tenants have the right to peaceful enjoyment of their property, which includes the ability to refuse entry for valid reasons. Landlords must be aware of these rights and navigate them carefully.
• Familiarity with the Landlord and Tenant Act 1985, particularly Section 11, is essential. This law allows landlords to enter properties with 24 hours written notice for essential repairs or in emergencies, but does not permit entry solely based on suspicion of illegal activity.

BEST MOMENTS

"The tenant always had an excuse, and because of his good track record, they didn't push further."

"Had this been done earlier, we might have discovered the problem before it escalated."

"It's important to have good systems and processes in place to ensure that regular inspections are being carried out."

"If a landlord or managing agent suspects illegal activity, this does not on its own warrant entry without permission."

VALUABLE RESOURCES

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https://propertyfundingplatform.com/WharfFinancial#!/borrowerinitialregistration

SOCIAL MEDIA/CONTACT US

https://linktr.ee/thepropertynomadspodcast

BOOKS 

Property FAQs = https://amzn.to/3MWfcL4  

Buy To Let: How To Get Started = https://amzn.to/3genjle  

101 Top Property Tips = https://amzn.to/2NxuAQL  

uk property, Investment, Property, Rent, Buy to let, Investing for beginners, Money, Tax, Renting, Landlords, strategies, invest, housing, properties, portfolio, estate agents, lettings, letting, business: https://patreon.com/tpnpodcast