This week's Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher chatting first with Avi Gilburt, founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net and author of The Market Pinball Wizard serviceon Seeking Alpha. After that, the hosts talk with Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Banncokburn Global Forex, and a longtime Seeking Alpha contributor.
Gilburt wasn't too surprised by last week's pullback, but the key question is what type of correction are we in. By his calculation, if the S&P 500 (SP500) can hold above the 2,890 region, another higher high may be in store in which the market could challenge its all-time high in the 3,300 area (the S&P closed at 3,066 on Monday). Following that though, Gilburt would expect a much larger pullback. One way or another, says Gilburt, a far more sizable slide in stocks is likely coming this year.
Bulls can take heart though - that's a short-term forecast from Gilburt. Longer-term Gilburt continues to have a minimum 4,000 target for the S&P 500, with a chance of as much as 6,000 before the bull market from 2009 ends.
There's plenty more, including Gilburt's basic explanation of how Elliott Wave analysis works, and how it can apply to any asset class that reflects "mass sentiment," with gold (XAUUSD:CUR) coming up for discussion.
Last week's market correction was long overdue, says Chandler, and he notes the pullback was reflected in the currency markets as well, where bull move favorites like the aussie, the Mexican peso, and the Scandinavian currencies also took big hits.
For those trying to lay Thursday's plunge at the feet of the Fed and its gloomy outlook published the day before, Chandler isn't buying it. He notes that the central bank's forecast - gloomy as it may have been - was actually somewhat stronger than most had been expecting. The Fed Funds futures contracts, says Chandler, didn't really react. The December 2021 contract two weeks ago was implying a negative yield, and today its implying positive, meaning it's seeing a brighter economic outlook.
Going forward, Chandler expects markets (and risk assets in general) to struggle a bit more, but past that the enormous liquidity being made available by both monetary and fiscal authorities should again kick in. He reminds it's not just the U.S. - the ECB this week is about to make available to European banks 3-year loans at negative 100 basis points! And the EU in the next few days might be approving a €750B stimulus package.
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