Major upgrades to Radix’s market intelligence

This week, we've integrated millions of new public data points into our Research product, adding tens of thousands of properties to our Radix Analytics platform for a more comprehensive look at shifting dynamics within specific MSAs and submarkets.

All data is based on publicly available information, including RealRents. These properties were previously available for individual benchmarking analysis and are now also included in our aggregate trends.

With expanded market coverage, your management and investment decisions are now more informed than ever.

More enhancements are on the way.

This update is a key milestone in our ongoing data evolution. As we continue to enhance our platform, you can anticipate further advancements to our market intelligence in the months to come. We look forward to helping you navigate these evolving trends with our most robust dataset to date.

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The first half of February delivered a wave of favorable economic data, painting a more optimistic picture for the start of the year than many analysts predicted. The combination of cooling costs and a resilient labor market provides a strong foundation for the housing sector as spring approaches.

Inflation inched closer to the Fed’s target of 2.0%. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% year-over-year in January, the slowest pace since last May. Significant relief came from lower gasoline prices, a high-visibility win for consumer sentiment that provides immediate breathing room for household budgets.

The Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 2.5%, marking the lowest growth rate for this metric since April 2021. This suggests that the underlying inflationary pressures that have plagued the economy for years are finally stabilizing.

January’s labor market report outperformed expectations. Approximately 130,000 jobs were added in the month, and the 4.3% unemployment rate indicates a sturdy labor market. Paired with robust wage growth of 3.7%, renters and buyers alike are entering the year with stronger purchasing power than anticipated.

The strength of job creation has been overstated in recent years, but if last week’s report is accurate, it bodes well for an economy that had a lot of question marks heading into 2026.

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The labor market kicked off 2026 with a surprising 130,000 new jobs in January based on today’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It was more than double economists’ expectations.

From an industry perspective, health care and social assistance (+124,000) and construction (+33,000) were major winners for monthly job gains. The federal government (-34,000) and financial activities (-22,000) lost jobs.

While the overall number is great news to start 2026, many will wait and see if these figures hold given the number of downward adjustments in recent years.

Based on the annual benchmark revisions released today, the monthly job gains for 2025 averaged just 15,000 per month, and practically every month was adjusted lower than previously reported.

That said, if these numbers are accurate, they bold well for demand for the multifamily industry this year. Strong job creation would help absorb excess supply totals from recent years. If hourly earnings remain close to January's annual growth of 3.7%, rent growth should bounce back as occupancy rates stabilize. 

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The U.S. Census Bureau’s first look at 2025 population data revealed a significant cooling trend. As of July 1, 2025, the U.S. population grew by 1.8 million from the prior year, or 0.5%. It was a sharp deceleration compared to the prior year’s 1.0% gain of 3.2 million people. Analysts attributed much of the change to a substantial decline in international immigration.

The slowdown in overall population growth was particularly relevant for the multifamily sector because it influenced demand for housing.

From a regional perspective, the Midwest has been a standout for multifamily operations performance in recent years. Low supply has helped, but Census data suggested strong demand as well. All states in the region recorded a population gain in 2025, aided by slightly positive domestic migration which had been negative for years.

At the state level, South Carolina led the nation with 1.5% population growth, but it was down from 1.8% the prior year. Idaho and North Carolina followed closely at 1.4% and 1.3%, respectively.

Texas led the U.S. in total population gain with more than 391,000 residents. While lower than recent years, it was essentially twice as many as Florida which had the second highest amount of 197,000.

Only five states saw a population contraction: California, Hawaii, New Mexico, Vermont, and West Virginia.

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Winter Storm Fern wreaked havoc on the U.S. this past week, with early estimates predicting more than $100 billion in total economic losses.

According to MarketWatch, analysts from Morgan Stanley believe the storm’s disruption could shave 0.5 to 1.5 percentage points from Q1 GDP, potentially obscuring the true strength of the economy.

Some people reading this planned to attend a major multifamily conference in Las Vegas this week, but they were significantly delayed or completely unable to make the trip due to the weather impact. I was part of the latter.

Based on data from FlightAware, there were approximately 24,000 cancellations for flights within, into, or out of the United States from Saturday through midday Tuesday. To put that in perspective, cancellations averaged 350 per day last year.

The timing of the storm also coincides with earnings season for publicly traded companies. On upcoming investor calls, expect some of the multifamily REITs to discuss any disruptions to performance and damage to properties, as well as how they are mitigating them.

Broadly, there will likely be a temporary slowdown to in-person property traffic in locations where Fern hit the hardest. That could show up to a degree in Radix data starting this week and next.

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This week's RAOT As of January 18, annual rent growth for multifamily was 1.8% at the national level. The U.S. occupancy rate was stable at 92.8%.

Also in this week's report, a recent survey of economists showed an improved outlook for job growth and a lower chance of recession in 2026.

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The U.S. labor market ended the year with an unemployment rate of 4.4%, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates steady at its meeting later this month.

While the jobless rate was low, it was a lackluster year of job gains, which is a trend that could persist in 2026.

Employment increaed by 50,000 jobs from the prior month in December on a seasonally adjusted basis. Of the 525,000 jobs gained for the full year, it was very front loaded as approximately 84% of the jobs were added during the first four months of the year.

If you are in search of optimism after that report, some economists point towards a couple of factors that could benefit the economic outlook for 2026.

The economy is expected to gain momentum due to the delayed effects of late-2025 rate cuts and the tax incentives of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. While these tax cuts are expected to outweigh the cost of recent tariffs, the bill’s reduction in certain social programs remains a point of concern for low-income demographics.

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While 2025 might be in the rearview mirror, many of its economic trends carry into 2026. These are a few to watch that influence demand for multifamily.

Can the labor market rebound and spur household formation? It was one of the biggest disappointments of last year, with essentially no job growth after April. Supply will be lower than recent peaks, but it won’t completely disappear. Many markets in the Southeast and Southwest regions rely on strong job creation and migration to fill those units.

How might a continued “K-shaped” economy impact rent growth? While consumer spending helped boost GDP in 2025, there was a significant divide based on income levels. Much of the spending was from top earners, while those with more moderate incomes were sensitive to inflation on essentials such as food and utilities. This trend could be a headwind for revenue growth, especially for properties with mid-to-lower rent levels.

Will the frozen single-family market start to thaw? Existing home sales saw a slight rebound near the end of 2025, but they remained well below normal levels. The typical first-time home buyer is now 40 years of age, a record high. While the lack of affordability has kept people in rental housing longer, a positive for demand in the industry, it likely stunted job growth and spending that would have helped the broader economy.

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The year ended with a strong reading for U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced its preliminary reading of 4.3% annual growth in GDP for Q3 2025. It significantly outperformed expectations and was the highest in two years.

The government shutdown happened after the reporting period, and it will impact the Q4 GDP results. Still, it indicated a stronger economy through September than many headlines suggested.

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Existing home sales rose for the third consecutive month in November based on data from the National Association of Realtors.

The seasonally adjusted total of 4.13 million homes sold in the last year was the highest since February, but it remained well below prior norms. From 2013 to 2023, existing home sales typically eclipsed 5 million per year.

An article published by the Wall Street Journal noted that 54% of primary mortgage-holders have mortgage rates at or below 4%, which represents close to 30 million households.

It appears the locked-in effect for single-family homes will continue next year. The Mortgage Bankers Association recently forecasted that mortgage rates will average 6.4% in 2026, giving very little relief to the lack of affordability in the for-sale home market.

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