The Real Investment Show Podcast

By Lance Roberts

Business News

What's The Real Investment Show Podcast about?

It's a show about life, markets, sweat-equity, and the pursuit of wealth in a capitalist market.

Download our free app to listen on your phone

The Real Investment Show Podcast episodes:

04.26.2024
4-26-24 Are You Prepared for Higher Taxes?
Markets & Earnings Recap, PCE Preview: What is the Fed going to do? Tesla takes it on the chin; Mortgage rates and home prices are on the rise; are homeowners feeling trapped? How far will your money go in retiremetn?...
04.25.2024
4-25-24 Lessons for Investors from the NFL Draft
Lance is Back! What is really happening in Commercial Real Estate: Getting distressed inventories off the books at deep discounts. Market performance recap: Nice bounce off the 100-DMA; PCE coming: What it means & why it's important.Economic strength is keeping...
04.25.2024
4-25-24 Downside Risk is Alive and Kicking!
Markets' predicted sell off occurred, and there's still room to the downside. As we've noted, a 5 - 10% correction was very possible because of markets' extreme deviation from the 200-DMA. That gap still must be closed, and to do...
04.24.2024
4-24-24 What Does Realistic Retirement Look Like?
Was Lance Roberts eaten by cannibals? (He will return tomorrow!) How Tesla fell out of the Magnificent Seven; Tesla's storage technology vs cheaper Chinese EV's & the future of EV's. The true environmental impact of building EV's. The RIA 8-Ball...
04.23.2024
4-23-24 Five Financial Mistakes to Avoid if You're Retiring Within Five Years
Market Commentary: Are there more declines to come? What is the path forward for 5% Bonds? PCE and more earnings reports coming; How to crossover from accumulation to de-cumulation; topic teases: Keeping more of your inheritance; how to increase your...
04.22.2024
4-22-24 Powell Suggests “Higher For Longer”
After six days of market declines, is the Correction done? Election risk scenarios & market volatility; markets do not like uncertainty. PCE preview (the inflation gauge the Fed pays attention to). Markets break the 50-DMA, and are now sitting on...
04.22.2024
4-22-24 We Are Not Likely Done with Correction
Markets have had a complete washout after six straight days of declines. The broke the 20-DMA, took out the 50-DMA, and markets didn't even breathe. As of Friday, we're sitting right on the 100-DMA, as we don't think this correction...
04.19.2024
4-19-24 Did You Pay Your Fair Share of Taxes?
Markets respond to Israel attack on Iran; Procter & Gamble disappoints; markets are in a churning phase. Fed rate decisions & market behaviors. How much do you really need to survive in retirement (What's your number?) Managing expectations, spending habits,...
04.18.2024
4-18-24 Are We On Japan's Path to Stagnation?
Husband Appreciation Day, Mother's Day, cooling Middle East tensions; the is the Fed allowing the system to percolate? Inflation remains sticky. Markets in correction mode; what happens when the 50-DMA breaks? What to do when the market bounces. Is Fd...
04.18.2024
4-18-24 Do You Buy or Sell Into the Bounce?
Markets are still in a correction mode, and we've been talking about a looming correction since January, with markets continuing to grind higher along the 20-DMA. When the 20-DMA broke, the computer buying algorithms were tripped. Now we're down about...
04.17.2024
4-17-24 How to Screw Up Retirement in 12 Easy Steps
Market Recap, Jerome Powell on rate cuts and stickier inflation; commodities on the rise = inflation. The CRB Index correlation with W. Texas Crude; no rate cuts until Fall? Markets break the 50-DMA; might be time to trim and rebalance...
04.17.2024
4-17-24 It May Be Time to Rebalance Risk
Markets have broken the 50-DMA, which certainly says we're in the process of correction. We're on a very defined MACD Sell Signal, markets are oversold, and declining; we are expecting a bounce. We're oversold enough for a counter-trend rally, which...
04.15.2024
4-15-24 Cracks Appear in the Market's Bullish Armor
Tax Day woes and audit fears; earnings season commences; What are companies saying? No corporate buybacks, removing major buyers of assets; pay attention to companies' guidance. Markets last week failed at 20-DMA, and tested 50-DMA as momentum slowed. Is not...
04.15.2024
4-15-24 Is Now the Time to Sell?
Markets last week failed at the 20-DMA, and began to test the 50-DMA as momentum began to slow. The narrow trend channel had begun weakening, and the break in the 20-DMA was the first crack to appear in the market's...
04.12.2024
4-12-24 How to Deal with Financial Stress
CFP testing results & commentary on professional credentialling; the importance of the Health/Wealth connection; the importance of continuing education (CE); a brief history of JP Morgan and "too big to fail." Inflation is permatory, not transitory. Profit margins are not...
04.11.2024
4-11-24 Is Inflation Too Hot to Handle?
CPI Inflation clocks in hotter than expected, with more data to come; car insurance inflation is an out-of-the-blue surprise (unless you recently renewed your policy!) What does the Fed do next? Markets are pricing-in NO rate cuts in June...and maybe...
04.11.2024
4-11-24 Will Markets Break the Trendline?
Last year's market rally amid the AI chase and hopefulness for Fed rate cuts tracked right along a narrow channel around the 20-DMA. Then came Summer, and a market correction that hit in October. Markets formed a rounded top during...
04.10.2024
4-10-24 Can Social Security Be Saved?
It's CPI Day (with m/m inflation clocking in with a .4% increase, and a y/y gain to 3.8%, hotter than expected). Sheila Jackson-Lee's science experiment; the NFIB Survey does not bode well for small businesses:Sentiment falls to a new low...
04.10.2024
4-10-24 Markets Hang Onto Support...barely
Markets continue to hang onto support at the 20-DMA by its fingertips. Expectations are for a .3% increase in inflation last month. (There's a mini-scandal swirling over the BLS releasing the data early to a few select banks.) [This report...
04.09.2024
4-9-24 Margin Debt Surges as Bulls Leverage Bets
Some are disappointed the eclipse did not herald the Rapture; markets are holding firm at 20-DMA. NFIB preview vs CEO Confidence; why small business' mood matters. Interest Rates in different states; no change in bullish market trend (why not to...
04.09.2024
4-9-24 Is the Bullish Trend Weakening?
Our advice to NOT have a knee-jerk reaction to last Thursday's markets dip below the 20-DMA was well founded, as markets were able to hold on to that support. As of this moment, last week's break in the 20-DMA has...
04.08.2024
Is the Inflation Scare Overblown? (4/8/24)
Eclipse-mania is out of control. Fed speakers confirm they'll cut rates, but in no rush to do so. Jobs numbers tantalize markets; the impact of immigration on employment. Boomers & Gen-Z plans to splurge on groceries in 2024. Markets takeout...
04.08.2024
Will Markets Confirm a Break of the 20-DMA? (4/8/24)
The mood in the markets for the past few months has been, so long as we're on the 20-DMA, don't worry about it; markets just keep going up. Well...on Thursday, markets took out the 20-DMA, then rallied on Friday to...
04.05.2024
Are You Really Ready for Tax Day? (4/5/24)
Market and economic data preview: How to respond in current environment. The U.S. is still the best house in a bad neighborhood. Fed folks now saying it's possible to have no rate cuts this year. Are you really ready for...
04.04.2024
Is America Mirroring Japan's Lost Decade? (4/4/24)
In this week's Fedapolooza, Fed spokespersons seem to be growing less hawkish about rates. Inflation is simply a function of supply & demand. There is a high correlation between GDP/CPI and interest rates. When inflation comes down, so will rates....
04.04.2024
The Bernie Madoff Trendline Remains in Effect (4/4/24)
The Bernie Madoff Trendline remains in place: Monday and Tuesday's selloffs were followed by Wednesday's recovery after bouncing off the 20-DMA trendline. The buying algo's kicked in to buy thie dips. Bullish sentiment is very high; there have been few...
04.03.2024
Could Powell Eclipse Market Expectations (4/3/24)
The JOLTS survey rate continues to slow, coincident with a slowing economy; interestingly, retail hiring has dropped sharply, despite increased retail demand (another example of divergent indicators). The data might not be as strong as we think. The difference between...
04.03.2024
Is the Markets' Unstoppable Rally Reaching its Conclusion? (4/3/24)
Markets have been in a "perfect trend channel" for months, the top of which runs right along the 20-DMA. Today will be a test of this phenomenon again. Just because we may violate the 20-DMA does not mean to go...
04.02.2024
Market Corrections Matter More than You Think (4/2/24)
Markets delivered a post-April Fool's drop, while manufacturing metrics moved back into the expansion zone. Markets have now dropped the chances of a June interest rate cut to 50%; markets continue to trade in a particular range. The April 15...
04.02.2024
Will Markets Miss the Tax Day Bump? (4/2/24)
Markets have been trading within a particular range; their ability to break above that range may be impacted by the outcome of April 15, with previous tax laws expiring: More Americans are going to find they owe taxes, meaning less...
04.01.2024
What to Look for in Q1 Earnings (4/1/24)
PCE Inflation is weaker, yet consumer spending remains robust; the Atlanta Fed is forecasting 2.3% GDP for Q2. Is this period nirvana for the Fed? The Relative Strength Index is stuck at 70. Markets continue a low-volatility advance, seemingly floating...
04.01.2024
Markets Are Set for All-time Highs. Again. (4/1/24)
Markets continue in a low volatility advance and could set another all-time high today. Markets are tending to be "floating higher," with little to deter investors. Economic data continues to come in in line with expectations, and there's no "stress'...
03.28.2024
When Financial Conditions Butt Heads With Borrowing Conditions (3/28/24)
Consumer confidence for stock prices remains high, despite mixed econonic data. Asset prices are rising faster than earnings, as optimism is extremely elevated. Equal Weight Index is underperforming the S&P; Bond prices are improving. If Fed Chairman Jerome Powell doesn’t...
03.28.2024
A Bullish Set-up for Bonds (3/28/24)
The Equal Weight Index has begun gaining traction, closing the gap with the S&P. Mid-caps have actually out-paced the Equal Weight Index, but still lags the S&P. Small-caps are the biggest laggard, still. Bonds have been picking up in price...
03.27.2024
Wall Street Wants to Save Your Retirement (3/27/24)
The Sentiment Index is hanging in, despite weakening regional surveys; economists see no recession in sight; bank reserves have been rising since October 2022. End of quarter rebalancing is generating some activity; after three-days of selling, market futures are positive...
03.27.2024
Markets' Steep Ascent is Unsustainable (3/27/24)
The end of the month of March marks another round of quarterly rebalancing in portfolios. Markets have remained within a well-defined trend channel for the past few weeks. After selling off for ther past three days, futures this morning are...
03.26.2024
Do Technical Measures & Valuations Matter? (3/26/24)
Baltimore Harbor is closed following the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge, hit by an out of control freighter. Weaker Regional Economic Surveys are in contrast to economists ratcheting-up growth expectations: No one is expecting a recession. Liquidity continues...
03.26.2024
Markets Will Retest the 200-DMA (3/26/24)
Markets have scored very positive returns over the past five months. When markets are so deviated from the 200-DMA, ultimately, they will connect back down to that average. We've been here before. Statistically speaking, when the markets have been positive...
03.25.2024
Are Market Bubbles a Function of Psychology? (3/25/24)
Stop the re-makes of '80's movies (Roadhouse)! Markets are going into 5th straight month of gains, remaining over-bought and trading in a very narrowly-defined trend channel. Money going into cryptocurrency (Memecoin) is indicative of late-cycle market speculative mood. The Coffee...
03.25.2024
Risk is Building for a Correction...at some point (3/25/24)
Markets have had a very strong advance over the past 21-weeks. The one thing we keep paying attention to is the indicator of the convergence/divergence line, which has been stuck at a very high level. It is highly unusual that...
03.22.2024
Beware the Risks in Medicare Advantage 2024 (3/22/24)
What do the Three Stooges and the Fed's rate cut plans have in common? Risk appetites are on the rise with the Reddit IPO; what if inflation heats up and the Fed cannot cut rates? We're living in a government-driven...
03.21.2024
How Will the Fed Rate Announcement Affect You? (3/21/24)
Markets respond to the Fed rate announcement, indicating at least three rate cuts this year, the first one coming as soon as June. Danny & Jonathan discuss Bond behaviors in the aftermath and investor response to the Fed rate announcement....
03.19.2024
The Fed's New Form of QE (3/19/24)
There's a definite correlation between changes in stock buybacks and changes in market performance. With the closure of the stock buyback window by the blackout period, the effects will be interesting, especially with the prevailing attitudes in an over-extended market....
03.19.2024
Follow the Bouncing 20-DMA (3/19/24)
The markets continue to bounce along the 20-DMA, each time touching the mark, the algo's kick in to push stocks to the top of the trading range. This pattern has continued for the past 250-days without a correction; a very...
03.18.2024
The Bull Market Trend is Showing Some Cracks (3/18/24)
During the week we were off for Spring Break, absolutely nothing changed: There is still no reason for the Fed to cut rates, and markets have finally re-aligned with the Fed's "Dot Plot." The share buyback blackout window is imposed...
03.18.2024
Watch for a Break in the 20-DMA for Correction Trigger (3/18/24)
(3/18/24) In one week's time (while we were on vacation, literally nothing changed in the markets. Markets' bullish trend continues, with future also trending higher this morning. Watch Apple following its agreement to implement Google's Gemini AI into iPhone. The...
03.07.2024
Liquidity Problems Are Closer Than You Think (3/7/24)
Earnings growth are a function of economic growth; the US Economiy is de-coupled from the rest of the world, which economy is poor. The danger of deficits (that are funding our economic growth); SOTU Preview: "The economy is great." Market...
03.07.2024
Why Being Complacent About the Market is Dangerous (3/7/24)
Same song, second or third verse: Markets continue to trade within a very tight range, not making any huge advances while slowly trading upwards. This is the dangerous part of the market, where complacency sets in. The "Can't stop/won't stop"...
03.06.2024
Proof: How Inflation is Affecting the Economy (3/36/24)
Super Tuesday seems to have locked-up the next Presidential contest pairing; economic data is not so good, yet market exuberance continues. Fed speakers abound today ahead of the Fed's blackout period. A record-setting Yield Curve Inversion is underway, still without...
03.06.2024
Why No One is Hedging Portfolios (3/6/24)
Markets continue to trade within a very tight range, touching support yesterday. Watch computer algorithms kick-in at the open today to buy the 20-DMA. The current trend is long in the tooth: You typically don't see this level of activity...

What's The Real Investment Show Podcast about?

Download our free app to listen on your phone

The Real Investment Show Podcast episodes:

4-26-24 Are You Prepared for Higher Taxes?

4-25-24 Lessons for Investors from the NFL Draft

4-25-24 Downside Risk is Alive and Kicking!

4-24-24 What Does Realistic Retirement Look Like?

4-23-24 Five Financial Mistakes to Avoid if You're Retiring Within Five Years

4-22-24 Powell Suggests “Higher For Longer”

4-22-24 We Are Not Likely Done with Correction

4-19-24 Did You Pay Your Fair Share of Taxes?

4-18-24 Are We On Japan's Path to Stagnation?

4-18-24 Do You Buy or Sell Into the Bounce?

4-17-24 How to Screw Up Retirement in 12 Easy Steps

4-17-24 It May Be Time to Rebalance Risk

4-15-24 Cracks Appear in the Market's Bullish Armor

4-15-24 Is Now the Time to Sell?

4-12-24 How to Deal with Financial Stress

4-11-24 Is Inflation Too Hot to Handle?

4-11-24 Will Markets Break the Trendline?

4-10-24 Can Social Security Be Saved?

4-10-24 Markets Hang Onto Support...barely

4-9-24 Margin Debt Surges as Bulls Leverage Bets

4-9-24 Is the Bullish Trend Weakening?

Is the Inflation Scare Overblown? (4/8/24)

Will Markets Confirm a Break of the 20-DMA? (4/8/24)

Are You Really Ready for Tax Day? (4/5/24)

Is America Mirroring Japan's Lost Decade? (4/4/24)

The Bernie Madoff Trendline Remains in Effect (4/4/24)

Could Powell Eclipse Market Expectations (4/3/24)

Is the Markets' Unstoppable Rally Reaching its Conclusion? (4/3/24)

Market Corrections Matter More than You Think (4/2/24)

Will Markets Miss the Tax Day Bump? (4/2/24)

What to Look for in Q1 Earnings (4/1/24)

Markets Are Set for All-time Highs. Again. (4/1/24)

When Financial Conditions Butt Heads With Borrowing Conditions (3/28/24)

A Bullish Set-up for Bonds (3/28/24)

Wall Street Wants to Save Your Retirement (3/27/24)

Markets' Steep Ascent is Unsustainable (3/27/24)

Do Technical Measures & Valuations Matter? (3/26/24)

Markets Will Retest the 200-DMA (3/26/24)

Are Market Bubbles a Function of Psychology? (3/25/24)

Risk is Building for a Correction...at some point (3/25/24)

Beware the Risks in Medicare Advantage 2024 (3/22/24)

How Will the Fed Rate Announcement Affect You? (3/21/24)

The Fed's New Form of QE (3/19/24)

Follow the Bouncing 20-DMA (3/19/24)

The Bull Market Trend is Showing Some Cracks (3/18/24)

Watch for a Break in the 20-DMA for Correction Trigger (3/18/24)

Liquidity Problems Are Closer Than You Think (3/7/24)

Why Being Complacent About the Market is Dangerous (3/7/24)

Proof: How Inflation is Affecting the Economy (3/36/24)

Why No One is Hedging Portfolios (3/6/24)