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By Lance Roberts
4.8
5252 ratings
The podcast currently has 3,728 episodes available.
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Is the Treasury stepping in to rescue the bond market, or is that the wrong way to interpret its purchases of long-term Treasuries? Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz examine why Treasury purchases are not necessarily the same as Federal Reserve quantitative easing, how issuing Treasury debt to fund an asset swap differs from creating new money, and what this could mean for bond yields, inflation, and investors. We'll also look at the changing relationship between Treasury bonds and gold. 0:00 INTRO 0:50 - Treasury Action & FOMC Meeting Minutes 4:19 - Market Rally on Debt Buy Back 10:03 - Are High Oil Prices Deflationary? 11:13 - Debt & GDP 13:53 - Federal Debt as % of GDP 17:51 - Selling Treasuries is Not a Problem 18:31 - What Happens if Gov't Stops Spending 20:55 - The Treasury Buy Back Plan 24:59 - The History of Buy Back Operations 28:12 - The Basis Trade 31:52 - The Term Premium Model 36:09 - What Would Cause Basis Trade to Unwind? 39:18 - When the Gov't Cuts Spending Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" premarket commentary, "Treasury Buybacks Spark a Market Bounce," https://youtu.be/pY-lAMlQo7M -------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/9qhjXZbxkxs ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "The US Treasury Doubles Down On Buybacks" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-us-treasury-doubles-down-on-buybacks/ -------- Watch our previous show, "Q&A Wednesday: Are Rising Rates a Market Warning?" https://youtu.be/j6w6g_kXQrU?si=zGfqusgrjAIu1jdN ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "Savvy Medicare Planning: Everything You Need to Know Before You Enroll," Thursday, August 20, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/Qjx33M2tS4i4 --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #SP500 #TreasuryYields #MarketVolatility #Investing #TreasuryBonds #BondMarket #GovernmentSpending #InterestRates

Markets are entering a critical stretch as investors confront rising oil prices, renewed inflation concerns, higher Treasury yields, shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy, and continued uncertainty over the direction of stocks. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff take your questions live and examine what the latest economic and market developments could mean for your money. 0:00 INTRO 1:01 - Market is hanging out - Going Nowhere Quickly 3:33 - Rise in Rate Hike Odds will Increase Pressure on the Fed? 7:05 - Too Loud? Too Old... 7:43 - Bessent: "I am the House" 9:19 - Dollar vs the Euro? 10:58 - High-risk, High-reward at 2% of Portfolio? 15:56 - What Dividend Sector is Safest for Building a Retirement Portfolio? Dividend Yield vs Fundamentals 17:50 - Stewardship of Capital issue - How to Find Strong Dividend Companies 20:21 - Doomed? Waiting for the Downturn (don't fall in love...) Valuations Matter 23:54 - Buying Puts as Insurance? Mistakes Most Make... 26:48 - Use of MIGA's for Income Component? 30:51 - Lifetime Income Annuities? 33:12 - Long Term Care insurance policies 35:20 - Worry About Market Volatility? 36:42 - What Moves is Berkshire Hathaway Making? (Google) 37:29 - What are alternative ways to hedge? (Puts vs Cash) 43:02 - What is the recommended percentage of cash in a portfolio? Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/cbnYs0Eoc0E?feature=share -------- Watch our previous show, "What Higher Bond Yields Mean for Your Portfolio" https://youtu.be/XWj6ghN3obM ------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" report, "Oil and Inflation Raise Market Risk," https://youtu.be/_ClOwNXFx3c ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "September Market Weakness: The Setup Has Teeth" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/september-market-weakness-the-setup-has-teeth/ "Investing Myths Dismantled (Chapter 4 of 5)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/investing-myths-dismantled-chapter-4-of-5/ "Spock And The Logic Based Approach To Volatility" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/spock-and-the-logic-based-approach-to-volatility/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next in-person Retirement Income Workshop, "Saturday, September 19, 2026: https://tracking.realinvestmentadvice.com/l/1052953/2026-06-17/2kkcz --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Inflation #OilPrices #FederalReserve #Investing #FinancialPlanning

Why are bond yields moving higher, and what could that mean for investors? Rising Treasury yields can influence borrowing costs, economic growth, stock valuations, and bond prices. Lance Roberts & Jon Penn break down what may be driving yields higher, what the bond market could be signaling, and how changing interest rates can work their way through the economy and financial markets. For investors, the key may not simply be how high yields rise, but understanding what is causing them to move higher. 0:00 INTRO 0:53 - ADP, PPI CPI Previews 1:34 - Meh Market: Don't do anything yet 6:03 - Mid-Terms are up in the air 6:57 - Oil Prices & Inflation 8:06 - Volatility remains compressed 9:53 - Labor Day & Refrigerator Raids 10:30 - What do higher interest rates mean for economy, portfolios? 12:52 - What the Fed really controls 14:53 - There's Good Inflation & Bad Inflation 16:27 - Interest Rates, Debt, & Deficits 17:53 - The Math of Term Premiums 20:15 - When a Treasury Matures (is there any risk to not being bought?) 22:38 - Rates are Returning to Normal 24:17 - The Example 27:35 - The Discount Rate 28:59 - The Rate of Change in Interest Rates 30:34 - When Will interest Rates impact Equity Markets? 32:15 - Are Higher Rates the New Normal? 34:09 - It's Okay to Own the Long End of the Curve 37:54 - The Irony of Higher Interest Rates 38:53 - Debt, Deficits, & Demographics 40:18 - Crises Without a Clock are Useless 42:20 - The Thing About Upside-down Bonds (and loss aversion) 45:30 - Just because you take a loss... Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jon Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: "When Doing Nothing Wins:" https://youtu.be/XWj6ghN3obM -------- Watch our previous show, "Is Inflation Data Getting It Wrong? - Oliver Rust Interview " https://youtube.com/live/603EdhToXq8?feature=share ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Yield Curve Tells Us More Than We Think" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/earnings-mean-reversion-when-estimates-snap-back/ "Normal Interest Rates: What The Debt Panic Gets Wrong" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/normal-interest-rates-what-the-debt-panic-gets-wrong/ "Druckenmiller Warning: The Bond Market Already Priced It" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/druckenmiller-warning-the-bond-market-already-priced-it/ "Investing Myths Dismantled (Chapter 4 of 5)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/investing-myths-dismantled-chapter-4-of-5/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next in-person Retirement Income Workshop, "Saturday, September 19, 2026: https://tracking.realinvestmentadvice.com/l/1052953/2026-06-17/2kkcz --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #MarketOutlook #OilPrices #PortfolioRisk

September is starting with a new set of challenges for investors: rising Treasury yields, higher oil prices, persistent inflation, renewed geopolitical tensions, and growing questions about whether the Federal Reserve may have to raise rates again. Add historically weak September seasonality and the uncertainty surrounding the midterm elections, and investors have plenty to think about. Lance Roberts and Danny Ratliff answer your questions about market risk, interest rates, inflation, portfolio positioning, retirement planning, and what investors should be watching next. 0:00 INTRO 0:50 - JOLTS Report Review, ADP/Jobs Preview 2:04 - Oil Prices on the rise (oil risk is transient): What's feeding into Inflation? 3:52 - Broadcom report preview 4:14 - Market working down towards 50-DMA to test support 5:15 - Seasonal weakness for September is present; volatility remains low 8:53 - Any market Rotation? 10:28 - Guidance for Acquiring company stock in 401k 12:37 - Recommendation for Rotation in and out of funds - how & why & controlling risk 15:30 - Dividend yields or reinvest in Creation of Retirement Paycheck? 19:37 - Where to hide money from the "coming doom..." 21:30 - Dealing with the risks in September 22:57 - Portfolio Management Rebalancing, & Target Weighting 26:13 - Data Center & related stocks: Bloom, Anet, ETN 30:15 - Money flow & Breadth Indicator, Momentum signals: Tax avoidance investing 32:56 - Is anyone big enough to move the market to influence the election (Situational Awareness) 36:55 - Changes to mandatory withdrawals 38:38 - Sensible policies to "fix" SS: remove restrictions on IRA's vs need for revenue 43:33 - Brookfield Corp? 45:12 - Worry about IRMAA? 45:56 - Pullback # for S&P 46:33 - Gold & Silver to run in future? Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/ZxnrV8m0F4g?feature=share -------- Watch our previous show, "What Should You Expect From a Financial Planner?" https://youtube.com/live/dRd4fGgwrkc ------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" report, "September Weakness Tests Market Support," https://youtu.be/4xaM1pIhI1w ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Loss: Why Crashes, Timing & Valuations Matter (Chapter 3 of 5)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/loss-why-crashes-timing-valuations-matter-chapter-3-of-5/dvice.com/resources/blog/why-retail-traders-consistently-underperform-over-time/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #MarketCorrection #RiskManagement #SeptemberMarkets #Investing #FederalReserve #RetirementPlanning #MarketRisk

September arrives with markets under pressure, volatility unusually compressed, and the S&P 500 testing key technical support. With earnings season over and economic data taking center stage, investors could face a more challenging stretch as momentum stocks weaken and midterm election uncertainty approaches. Lance Roberts examines the market's sell signal, the potential for a pullback toward the 50-DMA and 100-DMA, and why the 7,500 area could become important support. With rapid market rotation making risk management more difficult, maintaining a cash buffer, managing bond duration, and avoiding emotional investment decisions could be increasingly important as September volatility returns. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/6e-dFR8sjyc --- Articles mentioned in this report: "Druckenmiller Warning: The Bond Market Already Priced It" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/druckenmiller-warning-the-bond-market-already-priced-it/ "Loss: Why Crashes, Timing & Valuations Matter (Chapter 3 of 5)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/loss-why-crashes-timing-valuations-matter-chapter-3-of-5/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #SeptemberMarkets #MarketVolatility #Investing #RiskManagement
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