The Real Jonathan Smith Podcast

UConn is the favorite.

They’re beating teams by an average of 22.5 points per game. That would be a tournament record if it stood. Current record is 21.5 by Kentucky in 1996.

Miami however has more guards than shawshank 

They’re all really good. 

How will they match up with Sanogo?

How will they defend Hawkins?

I’m not worried about Miami’s ability to score. It’s all about how they defend. That is the major question going into the game.

Miami has scored 85+ in their last 3 games. 

UConn has scored 82+ in 3 of their 4 tournament games. 

Both teams are going to score at a high level. I think the difference will be the consistency of Sanogo underneath for UConn. I like UConn by 6.
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FAU vs SDSU

A matchup no one saw coming. 

I don’t know who I’m taking, but I’m leaning  SDSU. They have stopped everyone that they have played against. 

They held Alabama to 64 and Creighton to 56. 

You can’t tell me that FAU is better than either one of those teams offensively. 

But FAU is really well put together, and they rebound the ball at an extremely high level. They’ve won the rebound battle in every game they’ve played.

They outrebounded Kansas State 44-22. That’s insane. 

They shoot the ball well, and they remind me of Miami with how many guards they have that can score. 
4 of their guards had 13 plus. 

If they continue to shoot it well and rebound like they have I don’t know how you don’t pick them to win.
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Lamar Jackson is on the block. Who should try to sign him?  

Purdue vs FDU:

Purdue had young guards and it showed. They almost had a higher number of turnovers than their 3 point percentage.

Braden Smith had 7 turnovers and 1/6 from 3.

Mason Gillis was 1/7 from 3 

Every starter had at least one turnover and every starter but 1 had multiple turnovers. 

They turned it over too much, and Zach Edey didn’t take enough shots. He only took 11 shots. I know he took 11 free throws, but he took one shot in the last 12 minutes. 

I’m seeing two arguments. One is Matt Painter is a terrible coach because he lost to a 16 seed, and it’s his fault that they lost. There’s another argument that has placed the blame on the players for not making open shots. 

Part of it is that they didn’t make enough 3s, but part of the blame has to be on Painter for not figuring out a way to get Edey the ball.

Bama vs SDSU: 

Alabama is arguably the best offensive team in the country, and very few teams defend like SDSU. 

It’s a clash of two styles. Alabama wants to get up and down, even though they can slow it down and still score inside with Noah Clowney and Charles Bediako. 

They also obviously have Brandon Miller who has been incredible this year. 

San Diego State is the total opposite. They are all about defense. They can score due to their experience. 

Their juniors are considered their young guys. They have one freshman that averages 10 minutes. That’s it. Everyone else that plays is a junior or senior. 

They’re experienced and that is the biggest trump card in the tournament. When upsets happen it’s by teams with a lot of experience playing against young uber talented players.

Alabama has a mix of young guys and older guys, but I think you’re crazy to not put Alabama on upset watch this week.

Creighton vs Princeton:

Creighton is one of the most talented teams in the country. There is a reason why they were ranked in the top 10 to start the season. They had injuries throughout the year and they’re finally healthy. 

They can score, and they defend at a high level. 

Princeton has been a great story, but I don’t see a way for them to win this game. As good as Arizona was this year Creighton you could make an argument that they’re more talented. 

At some point Princeton’s lack of talent will show up and I think that will happen against the Blue Jays.

South winner: Creighton

FAU vs Tennessee:

FAU caught a break playing FDU. I don’t think they stand a chance playing Tennessee. Tennessee is so physical and athletic. I think they’re going to wear FAU down over the course of 40 minutes. 

I think this is going to be a game where the first 30 minutes is close, then Tennessee will pull away and win by 12 points. 

I know Tennessee doesn’t have Zeigler, but they have enough talented guards who can fill his spot. 

FAU can win this game. Johnell Davis is a good player and he’ll have to play the best game of his career for them to upset Tennessee.

Michigan State vs Kansas State:

Kansas State has scored 75+ in both of their games and Michigan State hasn’t allowed more than 62 points yet. 

I’m taking Michigan State simply because they have Tom Izzo. I know they’re going to defend, and I have faith in Izzo’s ability to scheme them into good looks just enough for them to win a close one. 

Kansas State is really talented and Jerome Tang has a bright future, but he doesn’t have the same experience as Izzo. 

East winner: Michigan State

Houston vs Miami:

This game has the highest volatility of results. 

I think there’s a scenario where Miami wins by 15. If their guards play well and don’t turn it over they could easily run Houston out of the building. 

There’s a scenario where Houston wins by 15 because they’re great defensively, and Miami struggles to score. 

This game could definitely be really close. 

I’m going to take Miami due to the fact that they’re so much better offensively. 

They have 4 guys averaging over 13 points per game and 3 of them are guards. 

They have so many more options offensively than Houston who has Marcus Sasser averaging 17 and no one else is above 11. 

Plus it’s been a crazy tournament. Why not make it a little crazier. 

Xavier vs Texas:

Give me Texas. They might be the most complete team in the tournament. 

They defend at a high level and they have guards who can score. 

Xavier can score with the best of them, but I don’t trust them defensively like I do Texas.

Sean Miller is a great coach, but like I said, I don’t trust them defensively like I trust Texas.

Midwest winner: Texas

Gonzaga vs UCLA:

Gonzaga looks good. They beat a tough TCU team. UCLA edged a tough Northwestern team, and I have to pick old reliable here. 

UCLA has 2 of the best guards in the country and they’re both seniors who have played in the Final Four.

Tyger Campell and Jamie Jacquez are both experienced problems. 

UCLA is built to win in the tournament. Their top 5 scorers are all guards and none of them average over 2.5 turnovers a game. 

They take care of the ball and they have multiple guards who can initiate offense and score. 

Gonzaga meanwhile, has to rely on their big men. I love Drew Timmie I think he’s great for college basketball, but you don’t win the tournament with big guys.

I’m taking UCLA and I wouldn’t be surprised if they ran them out of the building. 

Arkansas vs. UCONN

This game is going to be an absolute slugfest. These are two teams who want to get the ball inside and this game is going to come down to one thing:

Can Arkansas defend Jordan Hawkins. He is UConn’s best scoring guard. I know Sanogo is their leading scorer and he draws a lot of attention, but since he’s only 6’9 Arkansas can throw Kamani Johnson, the Mitchell twins, and even Jalen Graham at him if need be. 

I like the idea of Arkansas’s guards defending Hawkins. Walsh should be the primary defender. If he defends the same way he did against Kansas and Jalen Wilson I love Arkansas’s chances. 

They have to continue to hit their free throws. They shot 69% from the free throw line during the regular season. They’ve been over 75% from the line in both games so far. That has to continue. 

West Winner: Arkansas

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