Everywhere you look, someone is screaming “recession.” Some say we’re already in one. Others shrug it off and point to the stock market hitting record highs. So who’s right? More importantly—what does it mean for you as a prepper?

This week on the Survival Punk Podcast, we’re cutting through the hype and looking at the facts. Some numbers point toward a slowdown, even a looming crash. Others show resilience. Let’s dive into what’s really happening, why it matters, and how you should be prepping either way.

There are some hard warning signs flashing:

Jobs aren’t growing like they used to. July only added 73,000 jobs—way below expectations. On top of that, earlier job numbers were revised down, one of the biggest revisions in decades. That’s not nothing.

Spending is slowing. Durable goods (big purchases like appliances and furniture) dropped $40 billion since spring. When families stop buying the big stuff, it’s usually a sign of stress.

Tariffs and prices are climbing. Import costs are up, pushing prices higher. Economists call this “stagflation”—rising prices in a slowing economy.

Models are flashing red. A new recession classifier model gave a 71% chance we’re already in recession as of May 2025. That should get your attention.

These red flags don’t guarantee collapse, but they’re the kind of smoke you don’t ignore.

But here’s the kicker: the economy is weird right now, and not all signs point down.

The rich are still spending. High-income households are keeping the wheels turning. Wages are up slightly, and total labor income has been rising.

Markets aren’t panicking. Corporate credit looks solid—even junk bonds aren’t flashing danger. Big Tech earnings are strong, and the stock market is at record highs.

Forecasts are less gloomy. JPMorgan cut its recession odds to 40%. Goldman Sachs says 30%. GDP grew 3% last quarter. That’s not exactly doomsday.

The “vibecession.” Some experts say recession fears are more emotional than data-driven. We’ve had an inverted yield curve for years, and the sky hasn’t fallen yet.

So depending on where you look, the story changes completely.

Forget the talking heads. Here’s what actually matters to keep an eye on:

Payroll employment. If jobs shrink for several months straight, buckle up.

Consumer spending. Watch if regular folks start cutting back hard.

Credit markets. Calm markets mean stability. Spikes in defaults or credit spreads mean trouble.

Policy shocks. Tariffs, Fed rate changes, and election fallout can tip the scales.

Big bank forecasts. Not gospel, but they help track shifts in outlook.

Here’s the deal: whether an official “recession” is called or not, you prep the same way.

Build or top off your emergency fund.

Slash debt and avoid taking on new payments.

Stock up on barter items and staples before inflation climbs.

Diversify your income streams. Don’t rely on one paycheck.

Practice adaptability. Gear breaks, plans fail, but flexibility wins.

At the end of the day, preppers don’t wait for CNN to declare a recession. We live ready.

So—are we heading into a recession? Maybe. Maybe not. The numbers are mixed, the signals are weird, and nobody knows for sure. But that’s the point: preppers don’t gamble on “maybe.” We prepare for “what if.”

Because whether you call it a recession, a slowdown, or just a tough year—being prepared means you’ll thrive while everyone else scrambles.

Prepper’s Financial Guide: Strategies to Invest, Stockpile and Build Security for Today and the Post-Collapse Marketplace (Preppers)

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