The Recombobulation Area

It’s been another busy week in Wisconsin politics, with the one and only debate happening Tuesday at Marquette University, two new polls showing Francesca Hong opening up a sizable lead over the rest of the field, and a news cycle unfolding at breakneck pace as we get closer and closer to the Aug. 11 partisan primary.

Your friends here at the Wisconsin Politics Group Chat podcast are here to break it all down.

For a beat-by-beat breakdown, check out our topics and timestamps below:

* 00:00 — Intro: recapping a big week in Wisconsin politics

* 00:42 — Debate recap: format and moderators

* 03:30 — Pat’s debate takeaways

* 05:04 — The state of the field and Francesca Hong’s lead

* 06:10 — Why the other candidates didn’t attack the frontrunner

* 11:12 — What’s next for Barnes, Crowley, Brennan, and Roys

* 16:26 — The missing healthcare questions

* 20:14 — Working with the legislature

* 21:29 — Down-ballot primaries and previewing your ballot

* 22:26 — Inside the spin room with Dan

* 28:05 — Comparing the Marquette and State Navigate polls

* 31:25 — Undecided voters and leaners

* 33:44 — The candidates as Breakfast Club characters

* 35:42 — Listener question: how to decide your vote

* 39:18 — Hong’s campaign style and ground game

* 44:08 — Looking ahead to the general election

* 47:43 — The generation gap in the polls

* 50:51 — Predictions for the final stretch

* 52:03 — The 3rd Congressional District and 17th Senate District primaries

* 58:21 — Closing thoughts on unity after the primary

* 59:54 — Plugs, voting reminders, and wrap-up

The Wisconsin Group Chat podcast features Dr. Kristin Lyerly, Pat Kreitlow of UpNorthNews, Kate Duffy of Motherhood for Good, and Dan Shafer of The Recombobulation Area.

Find the previous episode of the Group Chat here.

A new poll of the Democratic primary in the race for governor in Wisconsin was released today by State Navigate, with support from UpNorthNews and Main Street Action.

Here are the headline results, showing State Rep. Francesca Hong of Madison with a huge lead.

UpNorthNews first reported on the results of the poll, and you can find Pat Kreitlow’s full story here.

You can find State Navigate’s breakdown — which includes extensive graphics, deep-dive crosstabs, and just a wealth of information — here.

Chaz Nuttycombe is the executive director of State Navigate, and if you are a longtime subscriber here at The Recombobulation Area, you are already familiar with his work. He does some of the best polling you will find of state legislatures around the country, including in Wisconsin, where I have used his analysis as a core piece of the mammoth Wisconsin State Legislature I write every election cycle.Nuttycombe’s work was previously under the name “CNalysis”, but he’s now running State Navigate, which has extensive data on elections up and down the ballot in Wisconsin. Check out their Wisconsin forecast here.

Among the many takeaways, beyond Hong’s huge lead, is just how much data centers have emerged as a significant issue in this race.

Nuttycombe also writes in his breakdown that, “The re-entry of David Crowley into the race has almost certainly crowned Francesca Hong as the Democratic nominee.”

Following that re-entry, the Milwaukee County Executive moved into a virtual tie in second with former lieutenant governor Mandela Barnes, who also has the most second-place votes in the race.

But, bottom line, as Nuttycombe said: “I think this primary is done.”

Over the past two weeks, the Democratic primary in the race for governor has turned into absolute chaos. Candidates are out, candidates are in, politicians are making endorsements, people are freaking out about the establishment, and this is all very discombobulating.

Nobody knows anything, but the Wisconsin Politics Group Chat — Dr. Kristin Lyerly, Patrick Kreitlow of UpNorth News, Kate Duffy of Motherhood for Good, and Dan Shafer of The Recombobulation Area — is here to try to make sense of all of it.

We talked about all that’s happened over the past two weeks, the upcoming Marquette University Law School Poll, an upcoming poll from UpNorth News (👀👀👀), Kelda Roys’ campaign, Francesca Hong’s campaign, Mandela Barnes’ campaign, David Crowley’s campaign, Tony Evers’ endorsement, and much more.

Oh, and we also talked about the guy on the other side of the aisle, Tom Tiffany, and why he’s an especially problematic candidate, maybe the most far-right candidate who has ever run a statewide race in Wisconsin.

We also talked about some of the news as it was breaking in real time about whether people who may have already voted absentee can change their vote.

Just three weeks until the Aug. 11 primary, folks.

EPISODE DETAILS:

00:00 — “Democrats in Wisconsin are going through it”

01:54 — The two-week recap: Crowley out, Rodriguez implodes, Crowley back in

03:33 — Why the Marquette poll will be confusing (+ a new poll is coming)

07:29 — Endorsements: which ones actually move votes?

11:41 — The Kelda Roys puzzle: doing the right things, not breaking through

15:42 — Does anyone outside Milwaukee know David Crowley?

17:16 — Where are all the TV ads?

19:42 — Has Francesca Hong pulled ahead?

25:31 — Could Fran actually govern in a divided state?

30:18 — Mandela Barnes: dark horse or falling stock?

33:52 — What to watch for in the Marquette poll

35:54 — The 70,000-ballot problem: spoiled ballots & the WEC ruling 44:22 — Tom Tiffany: the record behind the folksy ads

51:07 — Embrace the chaos + debate preview (July 28, WISN 12)

The last two weeks of campaign politics in Wisconsin have been extremely discombobulating, to say the least.

Since Tuesday, July 7, the following has happened:

* Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley ended his campaign

* Crowley endorsed Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez

* Rodriguez announced she was firing her campaign manager over a major campaign finance crisis

* Campaigns filed their finance reports, covering the period from Jan. 1 - June 30

* The Republican Governor’s Association made a multi-million dollar ad buy widely believed to be designed to boost Francesca Hong’s campaign

* Rodriguez ended her campaign

* Crowley announced he was be re-joining the race, and did so with the endorsement of Gov. Tony Evers

It’s been a lot.Amid all of this, so much of the talk seemed to surround a certain candidate in the race, so we wanted to hear from her herself.

What does she think of Crowley rejoining the race, with Evers’ endorsement? Does she see this as “the establishment” lining up against her? What does the term “the establishment” even mean to her?

What does she think of Act 12, the consequential piece of legislation many Crowley supporters were talking about at his campaign re-launch event? What’s happening with her campaign’s vaunted ground game? What is her big picture view of Tony Evers’ time as governor? And if she comes up short in the Aug. 11 primary, would she back whoever the Democratic nominee ends up being?

She answered those questions and more, speaking in downtown Milwaukee.

Today is is a rather discombobulating day for a variety of reasons. For one, here in the city of Milwaukee, we are experiencing the worst wildfire smoke here that I think we’ve ever experienced here in the city. The air quality is atrocious and everything smells like a campfire — and not in a good way. It’s really, really bad.

Secondly, scrolling social media to see Giannis Antetokounmpo being introduced as a new member of the Miami Heat gave me a bit of a visceral reaction to this visual. This never should have happened. Giannis should have been a Buck for life. Ugh.

Third, we are in the middle of the most discombobulating week of the election cycle for the Democratic primary in the race for governor.

Campaign finance reports for everyone running have just been released, and it would be an insane amount of information to parse in normal times, much less when one of the seemingly top candidates is having their campaign implode over a campaign finance crisis.

So, I am discombobulated. So today’s podcast might seem a little unhinged. But I am thrilled to be talking to one of my very favorite people to talk to — Greg Bach. Greg was the host or co-host of many different shows on Civic Media, and I used to talk with him every Friday when he was co-hosting “Matenaer On Air.”

We talked about these discombobulating times, the big picture of the Democratic primary, and much more.

The Wisconsin Politics Group Chat of Dr. Kristin Lyerly, Patrick Kreitlow and Dan Shafer (we missed Kate Duffy this time!) got together once again to talk about all the latest happenings in Wisconsin politics, diving deep into the emerging scandal for a candidate that seemed ascendant just a few days ago.

Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez fired her campaign manager over mismanagement and inaccuracies in campaign filings on Sunday, faced the press at a news conference in Madison on Monday, and now, folks are left wondering if her campaign can continue.

We talked about all of that and more.

State Sen. Kelda Roys is making the case that she’s the candidate in the Democratic primary for governor who can get things done for Wisconsin, and as the person in this race who is the biggest threat to Republicans in a general election.

“I think the Republicans looking at this race do see me as the biggest threat to Tom Tiffany because I will eviscerate him,” she said. “I will hold him accountable for every horrible thing that he has done to our state. I can do so effectively, and build that broad coalition that we need not just to win the general election, but also to deliver the Senate and the Assembly so that we can actually have a Democratic trifecta and then use it and govern. I’m just excited about, and not afraid to use power, to get things done for Wisconsinites.”

In this conversation, we talked about lessons learned from her 2018 campaign, her experience in the legislature and serving on the powerful Joint Committee on Finance, the potential of a Democratic trifecta, how her message translates statewide, and much more.

Plus, given the news of the day surrounding Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez firing her campaign manager “after discovering serious mismanagement and inaccuracies in campaign finance filings she prepared,” we talked about her reaction to that, too.

The Wisconsin Politics Group Chat of Kate Duffy, Dr. Kristin Lyerly, Patrick Kreitlow and Dan Shafer got together once again to talk about all the latest happenings, from socialism scaremongering to data center moratoriums to the Democratic primary in the race for governor (controversies, microprimaries, etc.) and beyond.

We also talked about the end of Child Care Counts (on June 30) and the beginning of postpartum Medicaid extension (on July 1), and about the many congressional primaries happening in races all over Wisconsin.

The Wisconsin Politics Group Chat got together once again to talk about all the latest in the news of the week.

The show streamed live on Patrick Kreitlow’s Facebook page and YouTube channel, and now, you can watch the full show here.

Among topics discussed: The Democratic primary in the race for governor, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley’s place in the race, the fourth anniversary of the Dobbs decision and the impact it continues to have, the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision on the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) program, and the Bucks trading Giannis Antetokounmpo (and my column about how he saved basketball in Milwaukee).

This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.therecombobulationarea.news/subscribe

The Blake Matthew Mindful Memorial Foundation was founded in 2021 following the loss of Blake Matthew Fenwick, a beloved son, brother, friend, and young Wisconsin man whose life ended far too soon after a struggle with mental health challenges.

What began with a father’s desire to honor his son has grown into a statewide movement focused on making mental health support more accessible, personal, and effective.

The Foundation’s first program was a scholarship initiative, funded with Blake’s inheritance. As community support grew, so did the mission. Through annual fundraisers, partnerships, and grassroots community support, the Foundation has now helped more than one hundred individuals access mental health and wellness services through its innovative Tinman Coin Wellness Grant program.

Unlike traditional approaches that focus solely on crisis intervention, the Foundation embraces a broader view of mental wellness. Recipients can access a growing network of wellness partners offering services such as counseling, breathwork, yoga, support groups, retreats, mindfulness training, and holistic health coaching.

In 2026, the Foundation launched the Tinman Trail, a structured wellness pathway designed to help participants build practical skills for emotional regulation, resilience, self-awareness, and long-term wellbeing. The program combines clinical lab testing, breathwork, community support, education, and healthy lifestyle practices into an accessible, community-based experience.

Today, the Foundation serves individuals and families throughout Wisconsin and continues to expand its network of wellness providers and community partners.

To support this vision, the Foundation recently launched its most ambitious initiative yet: the 10,000 Hearts Campaign.

The idea is simple.

What could happen if 10,000 Wisconsinites each contributed just $5 per month?

Together, those small monthly gifts could create a sustainable source of funding for wellness grants, educational programming, scholarships, and community-based mental health initiatives across Wisconsin.

The campaign is built on a simple belief: meaningful change happens when ordinary people come together to support one another.

One heart can make a difference.

10,000 hearts can help transform a state.

Learn more at blakestinman.com.

The Blake Matthew Mindful Memorial Foundation is an official sponsor of The Recombobulation Area, and this podcast is a sponsored episode.

To learn more about sponsorship opportunities, email: [email protected].

This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.therecombobulationarea.news/subscribe