Welcome to the era of friend shoring and nearshoring. The breakdown of the supply chain during the pandemic highlighted the risk of concentrating your manufacturing base half way around the world. For many years now there have been growing headwinds for China-based exporters. Rising US-China tensions, increased labor costs, and less favorable local policies meant that factory owners needed to consider alternatives. While before that often meant another Asian country like Vietnam or Bangladesh, the passing of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in 2019 cemented Mexico's role as a key supplier to the US market. 

We were fortunate to speak with an expert in this emerging trend, Andrew Hupert.  Andrew has a unique background, combining academic understanding of trade, investment and negotiation, with many years living in China and other parts of Asia along with his current focus on how to navigate Mexico's industrial opportunities.

He explains how the focus from Just in Time to Just in Case is shaping the the global logistics industry as well as China's involvement in Mexico.

Andrew Hupert is an accomplished entrepreneur, lecturer, and writer who has over 25 years of international experience. He has lectured and taught courses on cross-cultural negotiation at some of the world’s top business schools such as NYU’s Stern School, Strathclyde University, and Hult International Business School. Now he spends his time in Mexico working with international businesses to improve their North American supply chains, and writing on the future of globalism, cross-culture negotiation, and trends in international supply chains.

Andrew lived in Asia for over 20 years, with over 10 years of direct China experience. His first overseas experience was in the historical Japanese city of Kyoto, but he has also lived and worked in Taipei, Hong Kong, Chiang Mai, Hanoi, and Ho Chi Minh City. He returned to North America in 2021, when he moved to Mexico to assist international firms transition supply chains to Mexico and the US. He is a recognized leader in international negotiation and cross-cultural conflict management.

Andrew has published books, including The Fragile Bridge – Conflict Management in Chinese Business, and regularly writes for well-known sites like China Law Blog, in addition to maintaining his site about North American Strategy Planning.

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E 38 / Cooperation, Competition and Conflict: Scott Moore on US-China relations and Cross-border Threats

The current state of US-China relations is poor to say the least. In addition to concerns over a potential conflict in Taiwan and opposing policies towards the war in Ukraine, we have witnessed a general deterioration in trust and willingness to partner in virtually any sphere. We are seeing a tit-for-tat sanctioning of companies, deemed "unreliable" or a threat to national security and the banning of Chinese app Tik Tok in parts of the US. High level and military-to-military talks are absent as is dialogue on any global issue. How did we get to this point and what path is their forward? To find some answers, join me for an informative discussion with Dr Scott Moore focused on his book, China's Next Act - How Sustainability and Technology are Reshaping China's Rise and the World's Future. Moore does an excellent job of explaining the importance of Public Goods and the importance of US-China relations to the containment of potentially civilization threatening issues. His perspective comes from a career looking at US-China relations through the prism of emerging cross border themes of environmental, technology, and biomedical developments. Having lived in Hong Kong and mainland China, Moore currently leverages his knowledge at the University of Pennsylvania to provide insights and encourage collaboration between various departments. Moore views Authoritarianism, Nationalism, Protectionism in China as the key barriers to achieving cooperation on pressing issues. And he promotes the concept of competition, while not ideal, as a potential useful dynamic to continue to tackle shared challenges.

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Dr. William H. Overholt is a distinguished Asia Expert with five decades of experience in research, analysis, and advisory for leading investment banks, think tanks, government and educational institutions. He is a prolific author with a broad set of knowledge and experience he leverages to bring insights into Asia's complex social and political context. Overholt's assessment of US-China relations is very sober. At the same time, he believes China's growth trajectory is declining and its long-term political structure is not guaranteed. In many ways, the cycle of history continues, something which Overholt has personally witnessed first hand. 

Dr. Overholt holds a research position at Harvard's Kennedy School and is Principal of AsiaStrat LLC, a consulting firm. Previously he held the Asia Policy Distinguished Research Chair at RAND's California headquarters and was Director of RAND's Center for Asia Pacific Policy.

During 21 previous years in investment banking, he served as Head of Strategy and Economics at Nomura's regional headquarters in Hong Kong from 1998 to 2001, and as Managing Director and Head of Research at Bank Boston's regional headquarters in Singapore. At Bankers Trust, he ran a country risk team in New York and was regional strategist and Asia research head based in Hong Kong.

At Hudson Institute in the 1970s Overholt directed planning studies for the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of State, National Security Council, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and Council on International Economic Policy.

Dr. Overholt received his B.A. (magna, 1968) from Harvard and his Master of Philosophy (1970) and Ph.D. (1972) from Yale.

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Jack Perkowski, aka Mr China, is among the best known US entrepreneurs focused on China.  His journey to China began in 1990 when he left a successful career on Wall Street to pursue a dream.  Perkowski understood the the power of long-term trends, in this case the development of China in the new era of Economic Reform and Opening up established by Deng Xiao Ping.  After a couple of years of due diligence, he settled on the auto parts industry, where the government was eager for foreign technology, capital, and know-how.   He founded ASIMCO in 1994, which developed into a unique organisation with 17 manufacturing plants across China.

Perkowski recorded many of his experiences working in China in his book, Managing the Dragon: How I’m Building a Billion Dollar Business In China, published by Crown Publishing, a division of Random House, in March 2008.  This is one of the best books I have read about doing business in China, full of insights into China's economic and political system, the challenges of Joint Ventures, and wisdom of succeeding in business. A former football player at Yale, Perkowski combines the grit of an athlete from Pittsburgh with the sophistication of an international financial and operational executive.  And to top it off, he is a genuinely warm, earnest and optimistic man.  I am sure you will enjoy this conversation.

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Dr. Kumudu Gunasekera is a management consultant and strategic advisor to private equity firms, public and privately held corporations, and Fortune 100 global organizations. Throughout his career he has delivered actionable insights to clients worldwide.  A proven problem-solver, his insights and perspectives have been published in multiple peer-reviewed journals and industry magazines.  He has also instructed numerous undergraduate, graduate and professional courses while being an adjunct Professor at Boston University.

He is currently is a Managing Director at Stax , a global strategy consulting firm that advices 100+ Private Equity firms and their portfolio companies.  Prior to Stax, Dr. Gunasekera was a Principal Economist at Parsons Brinckerhoff (now rebranded as WSP), a leading global infrastructure group, in their Washington, D.C offices.  Dr. Gunasekera is also the co-founder of Sri Lanka@100 a private sector led initiative for value creation of mid sized firms in Sri Lanka. 

In 2019, Dr. Gunasekera was recognized as one of the top 100 business leaders in the Sri Lanka. He was also a Past President of the American Chamber of Commerce; and is currently serving on the Board of Directors of John Keells Hotels, the largest luxury hotel chain in Sri Lanka with resorts in Maldives.

Kumudu earned his Ph.D. in Economic Geography, and a joint M.A. in International Relations and Environmental Policy from Boston University. He has a B.A. in Economics from Hobart and William Smith Colleges.

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What is China?  It is a simple question but one that cannot be properly without the help of reading Bill Hayton's book,  'The invention of China'.    And, why is the conflict over sovereignty of the Spratly and Paracel islands and atolls so intractable?  To understand this also requires reading another one of his works, 'The South China Sea, The Struggle for Power in Asia'.

Bill Hayton is the prototypical guest on the Reorient! podcast -- accomplished, intelligent and possessing  deep expertise and a unique perspective.  I know of few authors with  comparable  breadth of experience reporting on geopolitical issues to a global audience and having a deep understanding of the history of Asia.   Mr. Hayton's accomplished  career as a journalist for the BBC began in the Middle East.  His first assignment took him to Iran in 1995 to interview Ayatollah Ali Akbar Mohtashemi to ask him if he organised the Lockerbie bombing.  In 1999, he shifted his coverage to European Affairs where he witnessed the struggle over the fate of the post-Soviet Republics, a focal point for Western audiences and policy makers.  

Mr Hayton arrived in Asia in 2006, where he reported from Vietnam, which had recently been re-engaged with the United States.  He published his first book 'Vietnam, Rising Dragon' and notes that, even today, Vietnam remains a poorly understood country , despite being the 15th most populous nation and subject of many Hollywood movies.   Hayton continues to offer insights into the nuances and rich history of countries in Asia with his soon to be released book 'A Brief History of Vietnam'. 

During our conversation Hayton helps to untangle and organise the concepts of peoples, nations, empires, cultures and civilisations.  He also explains how narratives, interpretations and definitions of history play into political objectives and become their own source of conflict. His informed realism provides a framework and pathways to enhance our mutual understanding of this fascinating and complicated region.

You can find more information on his website www.billhayton.com

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"James Fok’s book highlights the explosive risks in the relationship between the US and China today. It also offers insights into fundamental driving forces of international frictions and is a call to take urgently necessary steps to address the sources of conflict."

- Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum

Please click on the following link for more background on Mr. Fok:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-fok-24082237/

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A diplomat for nearly thirty years, Ted Osius served from 2014 to 2017 as U.S. ambassador to Vietnam, a country he has loved since serving there in the 1990s, when he helped open the U.S. Consulate General in Ho Chi Minh City and was one of the first U.S. diplomats at the U.S. Embassy in Hanoi. Leading a mission team of 900, Ambassador Osius devised and implemented strategies to deepen security ties, sign tens of billions of dollars’ worth of commercial deals, expand educational exchange, conclude agreements on trade, law enforcement, environmental protection, and address honestly a difficult past. Ambassador Osius’ leadership helped bring about a positive transformation in U.S.-Vietnam relations.

As he worked to improve U.S.-Vietnam relations, Ambassador Osius came to know the heroes who sought to reconcile our nations, including John Kerry, John McCain, Pete Peterson and Le Van Bang. Under four Presidents and seven Secretaries of State, Ambassador Osius contributed to reconciliation not just between governments, but between former combatants, and the people of both nations. The first openly gay U.S. ambassador to serve in East Asia, he was only the second career diplomat in U.S. history to achieve that rank.

Ambassador Osius earned a Bachelor’s degree from Harvard University, a Master’s degree from Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, and an Honorary Doctorate from Ho Chi Minh City University of Technology and Education. A member of the Board of Governors of the American Chamber of Commerce Vietnam, Ambassador Osius loves all kinds of travel, biking, sailing, theater and photography. He is married to Clayton Alan Bond; the couple has a three-year-old daughter and four-year-old son.

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Published April 10, 2022

Josephine Wong is a co-founder and principal at Apogee and co-founder of Make Meaningful Work, as well as the co-founder of UX Hong Kong.

Jo grew up in multicultural Hong Kong, with a Chinese-Burmese father and Chinese-Indonesian mother. She collaborates with global teams conducting research in Cantonese, Mandarin and English.

Jo is passionate about the environment, political and economic systems and how we can live healthier and happier lives while not adversely impacting less fortunate people.

She co-authored Make Meaningful Work with Daniel Szuc.

Daniel Szuc is a co-founder and principal at Apogee and co-founder of Make Meaningful Work, as well as the co-founder of UX Hong Kong.

He has been involved in the UX field for over 20 years, and has been based in Hong Kong for over 20 years. Dan has lectured about user-centered design globally.

He has co-authored three books including Global UX with Whitney Quesenbery, The Usability Kit with Gerry Gaffney and Make Meaningful Work with Josephine Wong. Recorded February 5, 2022.

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