The Reports

The Global Peace Index (GPI) 2025 report from the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) ranks 163 countries on peacefulness using 23 indicators across three domains. It identifies a continued decline in global peacefulness for the sixth consecutive year, driven by intensifying conflicts and a reversal in the trend of falling militarisation. The report also details the substantial global economic impact of violence and challenges in the free flow of information, stressing the importance of Positive Peace.

This source provides an extensive overview of global climate conditions and significant weather events in 2024, detailing record-high global surface temperatures and widespread extreme weather. It covers oceanic changes like rising sea levels, ocean heat content, and surface currents, alongside atmospheric phenomena such as total column water vapor, aerosol distribution, and stratospheric ozone. The document also examines terrestrial impacts, including droughts, wildfires, permafrost warming, glacial mass loss, and changes in precipitation and temperature across various regions, highlighting the effectiveness of early warning systems in mitigating flood-related fatalities despite increasing economic damage.

The "Global Trends Report 2024" from the UNHCR provides a comprehensive overview of forced displacement worldwide, revealing a record 123.2 million people displaced at the end of 2024 due to persecution, conflict, violence, or human rights violations. The report details various categories of displaced people, including internally displaced people (IDPs), refugees under UNHCR and UNRWA mandates, and asylum-seekers, highlighting that low- and middle-income countries host the vast majority (73%) of those seeking international protection. It examines key displacement situations in regions like Sudan, Myanmar, the Sahel, and the Middle East, noting increases in some areas while others, such as Syria, show increased intentions for return following political changes. Furthermore, the document addresses solutions for displacement, such as returns and resettlement, and sheds light on the critical issue of statelessness and the challenges in mental health support for displaced populations, all while underscoring the severe underfunding of humanitarian efforts.

The "Global Risks Report 2025," published by the World Economic Forum, offers a comprehensive analysis of various threats impacting the world. This report, a collaborative effort with partners like Marsh McLennan and Zurich Insurance Group, integrates insights from leading experts across diverse fields to provide a forward-looking perspective on global challenges. It identifies significant risks such as state-based armed conflict, geoeconomic confrontation, and the pervasive issues of misinformation and disinformation, which are exacerbated by advances in AI. Furthermore, the report highlights critical environmental concerns like pollution, detailing its profound impacts on health and ecosystems, and addresses the societal implications of super-ageing populations, including pension crises and labour shortages in care sectors.

The "Report 2025: A matter of choice: People and possibilities in the age of AI" by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) explores the multifaceted impacts of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on human development. It examines how AI distinguishes itself from previous digital transformations and its potential to either enhance or diminish human agency, recognising that the outcomes are contingent on choices made in its design and deployment. The report addresses inequalities exacerbated by AI, such as gender digital divides and challenges for people with disabilities and older people, highlighting the necessity of inclusive design and policy interventions. Furthermore, it discusses AI's influence on collective intelligence, democratic processes, the labour market, and its environmental footprint, underscoring the urgent need for universal and meaningful connectivity and international collaboration to ensure AI works for all people.

In this episode, we explore how global growth is projected to be 3.0% for 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, a slight uptick from previous forecasts. This upward revision is largely attributed to stronger-than-expected front-loading in anticipation of higher tariffs, lower average effective US tariff rates than initially announced, an improvement in financial conditions (including a weaker US dollar), and fiscal expansion in some major jurisdictions. However, the report cautions that this apparent resilience stems more from trade-related distortions than underlying economic robustness.

While global headline inflation is expected to gradually fall to 4.2% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, we'll discuss the notable cross-country differences, with inflation predicted to remain above target in the United States but more subdued in other large economies.

The outlook is not without its challenges. We'll unpack the downside risks, including the potential for a rebound in effective tariff rates leading to weaker growth, elevated uncertainty weighing more heavily on activity, escalating geopolitical tensions disrupting global supply chains and pushing up commodity prices, and larger fiscal deficits raising long-term interest rates and tightening global financial conditions. Conversely, we'll also look at the potential upsides, such as breakthroughs in trade negotiations establishing predictable frameworks and leading to a decline in tariffs.

Finally, we'll cover the IMF's crucial policy recommendations. These include:

• Promoting clear and transparent trade frameworks through pragmatic cooperation.

• Restoring fiscal space and ensuring sustainable public debt.

• Carefully calibrating monetary policies to country-specific circumstances to maintain price and financial stability.

• Implementing much-needed structural reforms to boost productivity and long-term growth.

Dive into the UN Technology and Innovation Report 2025: Inclusive Artificial Intelligence for Development, a critical publication from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). This report offers an insightful survey of the complex artificial intelligence landscape, aiming to guide decision-makers in designing science, technology, and innovation (STI) policies that foster inclusive technological progress.

The report highlights the significant concentration of AI development in a few companies and countries, alongside extensive gaps in digital infrastructure that risk widening existing inequalities globally. AI is projected to impact 40 percent of global employment, transforming production processes and labour markets. While it offers immense potential to accelerate progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals, it also presents various risks and ethical concerns, including bias, privacy invasion, security threats, and environmental implications.

To harness AI's benefits for sustainable and inclusive development, the report identifies three critical leverage points: infrastructure, data, and skills. It advocates for national policies that strategically support AI adoption, adaptation, and development. From an international perspective, the report underscores the urgent need for global AI governance and stronger international cooperation to steer AI towards inclusive and equitable development. This includes fostering a worker-centric approach to AI, promoting digital public infrastructure (DPI), and embracing open innovation models like open data and open source to democratise knowledge and resources.

The report concludes by emphasising that for AI to contribute positively to shared prosperity, its development must shift from a technology-first approach to one that prioritises people, ensuring benefits are shared fairly among countries, firms, and workers.

Unpack the OECD Economic Outlook, June 2025.

We cover the global slowdown, heightened trade uncertainty, and persistent inflation, exploring policy paths for reviving growth and fiscal sustainability.

This episode of our podcast, based on the World Bank's June 2025 Global Economic Prospects, reveals a turbulent global economy.

Global growth is projected to slow to 2.3% in 2025, the weakest pace since 2008 (outside of recessions), largely due to rising trade barriers and heightened policy uncertainty.

Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) face insufficient job creation and persistent poverty. We delve into Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations (FCS), highlighting their severe economic tolls from conflict and escalating debt risks.

Urgent, tailored policies are crucial for global stability and growth.

Today, we're diving into a landmark report from the World Health Organization (WHO) Commission on Social Connection, titled 'From loneliness to social connection: charting a path to healthier societies'. This crucial report highlights that loneliness and social isolation are urgent global public health challenges, impacting individuals across all ages and backgrounds in every region.

The findings are stark: nearly one in six people worldwide experienced loneliness between 2014 and 2023, and it's estimated to cause about 871,000 deaths annually. The report makes it clear that social disconnection has severe, under-recognized consequences for mortality, physical and mental health, well-being, education, the economy, and wider society.

However, this isn't just a wake-up call; it's also a roadmap for progress. The report asserts that effective strategies to foster social connection exist and must be scaled up. It proposes a comprehensive way forward across five strategic areas: policy, research, interventions, measurement and data, and engagement, aiming to transform lives and build healthier, more resilient societies.