This week's Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher talking about the second-half outlook with Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network.
Prior to the chat with McMillan, Task and Alpher talk about recent market action. Among the items - a bull run that appears to be getting its legs again, and a pickup in dealmaking. Of the bull run, Task notes that an equal-weighted S&P 500 is down 9% since June 8. The move higher in the headline indices of late is getting even more focused on big-cap tech.
Of dealmaking, the hosts are interested to see Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway ([[BRK.A]], [[BRK.B]]) finally putting some of their $137B to work with the $9.7B cash purchase of the natural gas transmission assets of Dominion Energy (D). There was also Monday's $2.65B purchase of Postmates by Uber (UBER), with Task pointing out that this is an all-stock deal. At least Uber thinks its currency is of pretty fancy value right here.
It's hardly surprising that the key to McMillan's outlook rests with what happens with the pandemic. For now, his base case is that we get Covid-19 under control and the economic recovery continues (even if at a slower pace than current). In that case, we're pretty much back to normal by early next year.
That doesn't necessarily mean McMillan's a big bull on the stock market at current levels. Instead, he sees stocks as pretty expensive even if earnings come back, and expects the S&P 500 to end the year about where it stands right now.
There's plenty more, including McMillan's take on the wild swings in jobs numbers we've seen, whether or not we get another stimulus package, and what he considers to be the most underrated economic statistic.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices