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In this final episode with Aaron Chapman, we discuss how adversity can shape your legacy. In this current market environment, many investors will be challenged, but that does not mean they must fail. Your mindset, work ethic, and ability to learn from the external forces that turn your world upside-down will be the deciding factor of your long-term success.
Aaron Chapman is a veteran in the finance industry with 25 years of experience helping clients better understand, source, and finance cash-flow positive investment properties. He advises over 100 clients a month in the acquisition and financing of their investment properties and primary residences. Aaron is ranked in the top 1% of mortgage loan processors in the country, in an industry of over 300,000 licensed loan originators, closing in excess of 100 transactions per month.
Episode links:
https://apps.apple.com/uy/app/qjo-investment-tool/id1533823468
https://www.aaronbchapman.com/
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Transcript
Before we jump into the episode, here's a quick disclaimer about our content. The Remote Real Estate Investor Podcast is for informational purposes only, and is not intended as investment advice. The views, opinions and strategies of both the hosts and the guests are their own and should not be considered as guidance from Roofstock. Make sure to always run your own numbers, make your own independent decisions and seek investment advice from licensed professionals.
Michael:
What's going on everyone? Welcome to another episode of the remote real estate investor. I'm Michael Albaum and today with me I have for our third and final episode of this series, Aaron Chapman and Aaron's a lender, and he's gonna be talking to us today about how well you take a beating determines your legacy. So let's get right into it.
Aaron, what's going on, man? Welcome back for part three of our conversation. How are you?
Aaron:
What's up, brother. Man, it's looking forward to this one.
Michael:
Me too our last few conversations. If you didn't catch them, I highly recommend you go back and give them a listen to Aaron drop some amazing wisdom and knowledge. Today we're talking about how well you take a beating determines your legacy as a theme. But for anyone who didn't catch the first two episodes, give us a quick and dirty who you are. And what is it that you do, Aaron?
Aaron:
So I am in the Real Estate Investment Finance space. I'm one of the few conventional lenders that focuses on real estate investments. And I do about 1300 transactions a year for investors, I've been doing that since 1997. Got a great big team of 30 plus people, and we're into heavy into the education and helping people build a business while at the same time getting financing done. And it cost them nothing to have all the experience and the the wisdom, we're trying to give them the guidance while it is getting their financing done like they would do anywhere else.
Michael:
Yeah, I love it. And so many lenders, especially conventional lenders, I've come across and you might have shared experience are just trying to push the biggest loan that someone qualifies for on them. And they don't really care what that's gonna be used for. They don't really care what how it's gonna affect the end user. But it sounds like you take a little bit of a different approach.
Aaron:
It does bother. Well, there's two things about this industry. You know, I think I may have even referenced it, maybe not among the last two episodes is that humans are the apex predator, we fall prey to no other species except other humans. And I found that our industry is just full of predators. They don't care what you do, as long as you close, they will use every sales technique, everything they've ever been taught to try and find a way to get you to close on that transaction.
Myself, I'm of the mindset is I'm gonna do everything I can to ensure that you close and are successful in that transaction. Because if you're unsuccessful and what you end up doing, you're not going to do deal number 2-3-4-5, I don't care about deal number one I care about deal number 10. Why do I care about deal number 10. Because if you made it to deal number 10, you're a badass, you're getting stuff done, you're achieving your goals, if you get to deal with and pretend that I'm a badass, because I'm getting more deals done, right?
But one, if you have that bad experience, man, I'm never gonna see 10. So we don't when people come to us, and they've got questions that they've never had before. They've got decisions they got to make that they've never had to make before. There's a good chance they've never had to really experience what it's like to make that kind of decision. Well, what I do 1300 transactions a year and I've been doing it as long as I have, I don't answer the question with an answer. I give them stories, what I've seen people do in that same scenario, and then give them the outcome of those decisions. So they're making decisions based on practical data, not speculation, in theory.
And then I also if they're questioning a deal, like, I'm not sure if this is right, if it's wrong is like Well, let's take a look at some things I tell them what to look at, and what questions to ask and who to go get the answers from. Take notes and bring them back to me. And we'll evaluate those answers together. And what I'm doing is helping them to determine whether they move forward or they walk away. And they also got to education about it at it. And they also learned about the other people they're working with are these people that are in it for the closing, or they're in it for them and the longevity of their business. And we get to find that out. And you get to talk to people really, really quickly.
And sometimes it takes time you have to investigate things. You have to spend money on appraisals, you have to spend money on on inspections, and things like that. And it could be costly, but you never stay in the deal because you spent money that you spent the money to walk away from it. And we help them understand that they're their CEO, their real estate investment business, and we're here to support it.
Michael:
Yeah, no, I love it. Sunk cost was definitely something I got exposure to early on in his business. And it's could be a very tough concept to wrap your head around. If you're not familiar with it, you know, don't throw good money after bad.
Aaron:
And that's a heavy duty sales tactic to get people to follow the sunk cost, thought process and process and get really, really caught up a man have already spent this money. If you understand why you're spending the money. There's never a sunk cost. Yeah.
Michael:
Yeah, no, it's so true. It's so true. So let's talk about I mean, where we are today is very different than we were six months ago, a year ago, 18 months ago. And I think people might be in for a little bit of a whirlwind. So let's kind of talked through this concept of determining how well someone takes a beating really determines your legacy, which I think is a really great theme. So why do you think it's pertinent to talk about today, Aaron?
Aaron:
Well, we're going into what could be a rarity A very big beating. And the fact that, like you just said, we're coming into something we were this different than what we experienced the last little while. It's different. It's something we've ever experienced. When you go back into the market and started researching what's happened in history of these markets that we that we've been following all the way back in the 1800s, we don't have any data to tell us how the economy and how the market or the world is going to react to the last What is it 12 years, 13 years, since 2009, January 1 2009, we started the quantitative easing, and it's continued to keep going $8.9 trillion $8.9 trillion that put into the market. And now we don't know we have no idea how the markets can respond to that as they're, as they're trying to back off of that 40% of the of the world's currency, or I guess the US currency has been produced in the last 18 months. So for people to tell me, Hey, markets go in cycles, and we can get this particular loan, and we'll just refi later, like, Dude, you can't think that way. Because we're not in any cycle we've ever seen.
The last cycle last tilt since 2009, was really the cycle. Sure, there are some little mini cycles in there. But for the most part, we had extremely low interest rates, never seen before we had a housing market has just been on a tear for 13 years. And now you're thinking that some cycle is gonna come along the next five that you can risk getting a five year loan, and do that. No, I think weren't, it was. And I just know, I think Warren Buffett said the 30 year fix is one of the greatest instruments in the world, because it's a one way bet. If you bet on the 30 year fixed and you're wrong. Worst case scenario is you refinance the house. But if you bet on the 30 year fix, and you're right, you're save yourself 1000s and 1000s, if not hundreds of 1000s of dollars, depending upon the size of your portfolio. So don't get suckered into these short term loans on a long term investment.
So now going into what we're going to be experiencing here, one, I don't know what it's going to be. But if we go back to 2008, here's my own personal story in 2008. You know, I shared my story about coming into the industry and the beatings that I took getting into it, right, and now we're getting into what happened in 2008. Everything starts crashing, everything's falling apart. I at that time, was still doing pretty well. I was making a good six figure income. I had decent clients coming in in 2008. And I was doing kind of a night thing for two throughout two months. I had a buddy of mine I I'm a former fabricator, I've worked on vehicles, I built a hot rods, all kinds of stuff, build jeeps, a lot of things and I have that kind of a background. Well, a buddy of mine says hey, we need you in on this deal. I need another fabricator on this and what we were doing was taking a double decker Bristol bus an English bus. We cut the top off of it, turned it into basically a mobile strip club is what we did. And we did this for a guy that wanted to take it to Burning Man, you guys can look it up. It's called shaggileic. Rapping it's this white bus wrapped in for a cruise ship horn on the front. I mean, it's just it's one of the craziest things you've ever seen. What a trip, I was fabricating everything up top building in the DJ booth. There's a bed going up there places for the poles, all that and that's what I was building.
While I was doing this thing where I was sleeping maybe three hours a night I go to the office, keep working on my lending business. And at night I was fabricating all night long for these guys. Because they were doing during the day and I was doing my part at night. Well then August 8 rolls around am I lucky numbers always been eight. And so as a result that this is August 8 of 2008. I was jumping on the bike, heading out of town for a three day ride through New Mexico just to clear my head. So it's a crazy time in my life and mind that my head was not in the right place. I'll guarantee I just tell you that. Cruising down the highway and right next to this guy is in a black truck and I've been by him for a while so I knew he knew I was there. But Donald suddenly flips on his blinker and he starts coming over to me. Well, I quickly looked over to my right, nobody was there. So I hit my throttle, I leaned that bike. What I didn't realize is somebody just then started to pass me and I clipped her front bumper, and I went flipping. So I don't remember the accident self except for my bike kicking sideways. And then I remember waking up in the hospital and we're looking around and this this really bright light and really quiet area and I remember sitting up and I noticed kind of fuzzy there's somebody sitting in a chair and my lapse my vision got clear is my wife. So I asked her where am I at and what seemed like was kind of an exasperated going to tell me for the 40th time you're in the hospital. You had an accident, and she started explaining things.
Well, what what ended up happening is when I went flipping, I used to race mountain bike so I would instinctively talk I realized this because I had such a massive bruise. This is where I initially hit my my my helmet had big ol crack in it. When I hit it just obliterated my collarbone and a bunch of ribs. It collapsed my right lung when I flipped my legs hit and I shattered my legs and ended up skidding to a stop. So if you've ever been to Arizona in August, but the pavements not nice to lay on in August so I had a lot of burns. A lot of road rash And so I was in there for a couple of weeks in the hospital that a bolt me back together my memory at that point because the head injury we had pinwheel would basically flip every three minutes. I could only remember every three minutes and never reset, but little things would would stand out.
So there's some things I do remember, but a lot of it's gone. And then there's actually some stuff in my history that's gotten my I was with my sister and brother in law, and they showed me some pictures from their wedding. I'm like, I don't remember this. And they showed me pictures of me being there. And then they played the video Like, I have no idea about this night. So there's certain things in my history that are gone because of that accident. So kind of the point behind all that is, I wheeled into that hospital I was I was a mountain climber. I was a marathoner. I was in phenomenal shape, best shape of my life at the time, I weighed in at190 pounds, maybe 12% body fat, worse about on paper, because of my investments worth about three ish million dollars. When I wheeled out of that hospital weeks later, I was 156 pounds at six foot one, and I had a negative net worth of 1.5 million everything was taken from me.
So I had to start over from there. So I had to learn how to walk again. I had to train my memory back. And then I had to negotiate with everybody who is foreclosing on all my rental houses, they're coming after me for all the other debts. And because if it wasn't for the fact now, to me, it was a blessing. There's a lot of people that went through the crash. And they lost everything I know of people that ate bullets, they went back to their office and they shot themselves. I know people who did that. But I had the blessing of being able to negotiate with these creditors, and I'd send them my first week's medical bill for $1.7 million, and then immediately back off. And what I have is a certain amount of money left in the bank, that was all I had to my name. And it was about I think it was like five grand or something I don't remember exactly.
Well I called every creditor up that I owed money to that was calling me and I said here, here's how much I have in my account, you look at my credit report and how many people I owe, I will give you that if you agree to that and wipe the credit clean. So I negotiated that with every single person. And what I did then is then I had an underinsured motorist thing finally kick in months later. And I was able to use that to pay off everybody that one negotiated amount. So I got clear of the whole world and they let me do that because the nature of my accident. Not a lot of people had that. So they didn't have the blessing getting their *** kicked, and be able to leverage an *** whoopin to be able to get out of that right.
The other thing that was real tough about this *** whoopin was I came back to an obliterated business. The lending industry was not doing well and I got back on my feet about eight months later. And all the people I was doing business with before the realtors and people like that they were out of business. They were doing something else. There was two left in the industry, my mom and a gal by the name of Carolyn Irby with Coldwell Banker, they at that point, they were still doing business, they're getting deals done. And they call me up say, Hey, I got a client for you need to call this person, they would got to the point that they'd call me back five minutes later say, Hey, did you call that person like what person they said, Get your pad and write this down. So I got to I was carrying a notepad with me all the time, I'd write down what I do all day long. And the calls are supposed to make the outcomes of those calls. And then if it was crossed off, that means I did it. If it wasn't crossed off, then I would have to make this call. I can't tell you how many people I called that weren't crossed office. We just talked on the phone. Right? It's like well, can you can you tell me what we said.
So talk about earning trust, right? That's a real hard way to earn trust with somebody when five minutes before you don't even remember the conversation by explain the scenario. And people were very, very, very kind to me. Now. There were some saying, Hey, I can't do business with that does have a memory. There's a lot of people that were that did. And I rebuilt my business on that. And because of that notepad, I rebuilt my memory and I read, I was able to reconnect those wires in my head by the grace of God. And by just being very, very religious about maintaining my my pad, I wished I had my stack of pads, I throw them away, oh, I don't know why throw them away. But that was how I lived my life at that point. And I recovered back to a business that I built back up from zero to now. I get I start the the real estate investors coming into Arizona, and they're buying these houses that are undervalued. And so I started to do those loans. They were really little loans. There's like 50,000, or loans. Nobody's making a bunch of money on 50,000 our loans by doing a ton of them. And then I went from there to doing more and more they went from from Arizona to Indiana, Indiana, Missouri, Missouri, to Texas, and then over to Tennessee. And so I started doing more and more loans.
Well, then I had one of my biggest competitors, who was also a guy call and he'll give me pointers on how to do some of these loans are a little bit tougher. He decided in 2015 that we should merge our businesses. So when he flipped, they flew me out to Utah, I sat down with him and some of the executives in the company. Let's do that. So I merged the business with him. But you can only do the loans under one person's name. Well, since we're merging into his company, well, the company he worked for as a loan originator was put on to his name. Six months later, he pulled it all apart, took it off himself and left me at zero again. And it took my entire database.
Well, the executives called me up to say, um, we're probably at the fire your staff, and you're just gonna have to start over like, No, give me 90 days. So me and my staff have two or three, we sat down and we said, what are we going to do when the phone rings is going to ring in 10 minutes? What are we going to do with these deals, now, you don't have our big team anymore. And we mapped out a plan. And within six months, I was ranked number nine in the company. And within a year, I taken over the number one spot within the company. And now years later, that guy's out of the business. Because he I mean, that's what happens when you become selfish you and it's all about you, everybody leaves you he ended up all by himself, he end up not having a business anymore. He's completely out. I haven't heard anything from him, he got away from doing investor loans like three, four years ago. And I would venture to say I'm the number one guy in conventional lending for real estate investors. And last I saw by statistical numbers that was just published in a mortgage originator magazine, if you look at how many trends looking at by how many transactions closed per year, I think I'm right, number six or seven, the United States.
Michael:
That's wild Aaron. That's so insane.
Aaron:
And to me, a lot of people is like, how did you do all that and I'm like, you just every single day you have an objective and you keep moving forward. And it was actually, to me the noise of the world getting turned down around me and I was stuck to my own thoughts. You have to decide whether or not you agree with the person that you were and I would did not like the person I was at that time. I was a really arrogant, cocky prick before that accident. You know, I was dressing the part and acting department being the man. Now it's like, you know, I decided I'm just gonna be me. And if people don't like me, then then that's fine. I don't need to we don't need to do business. It's not about that I would do whatever I need to do to close a deal before. Now. I just want to make sure I get along with a person. And like one guy told me this last week, I thought it was really interesting. He says, Do you you just collect people? Like what do you mean I collect people because you collect relationships, because that's that's your investment, you invest you invest in things, but you spend money to make sure you have more relationships with people. And that's the truth.
And that came up because we talked about flying first class, one guy said he's really really cheap. The other guy said no, I love first class, I got pampered by it. They say you fly first class all the time. So yeah, I'm Executive Platinum with American Airlines, I spend more time in seat 3D and I do at my house. But it's not for the seat, or for the free drinks. It's for the person next to me. Because you'd be amazed at the kind of people you sit with in that environment and the kind of conversation you get to have. And they're all very, very memorable. If you'll just reach out and say hi.
Michael:
Yeah, that's such a different way of approaching it. You know, so many people are going for the drinks or going for the big seat. Sounds like you could care less about that.
Aaron:
No, I mean, it's comfortable being a sibling I hate sitting in the back, because because of how much Americans have the room. Let me I'm not I'm not a fan. I do have to I do fly Allegiant from Arizona to to Missouri. So it's only one one stop to go to my place out in Missouri. So I still do it. I'm not a fan of it. I don't love it. We in fact, my family is dubbed at low rider of the sky. But when we go to kind of fly American, I'm, it's gonna be a long flight. I need to be comfortable. For two reasons. One, I've just gotten used to it. And I like sitting next to people I sit next to number two, I've lived the last What is it now? 12 years, 14 years in pretty heavy pain. And because of that pain, when we hit the sky, and they start pressurizing. I was doing a lot of pain in my shoulders, a lot of pain in my legs, my ankles are just both my feet were snapped off in that in that accident. So the extreme pain I was dealing with that. It's now gotten a lot less because I really took the time to rehab this last year, I went to rehab to physical therapists like crazy and we had loss and I got back to working out I got in a lot better shape than I've been in a long time in 14 years, honestly. And I feel awesome. But now the reasons I sit up there is not for the same reasons. It's for the it's for the relationships and like yourself, right? Well, I'm collecting people right here now. And now wherever I go. I see you as there's my guy. There’s Mike.
Michael:
Yeah, no, absolutely, absolutely. So Aaron, I mean, you've been like literally to hell and back again and came out on top. So for people that have maybe been never been through a downturn or a market cycle, if that's what we're headed into. And it sounds like that might not even be the case. I mean, what should people be doing to prepare, if they do find themselves with those shorter term loans coming due now?
Aaron:
Well, and they're gonna come to at some point, even if it's not now, I think they need to be on the watch for any opportunity to put themselves into a longer term loan and have to bite the bullet or whatever that expense is. Do I believe, I mean, I think interest rates going to keep climbing to an extent they're gonna have to taper off because I can't see us continuing down this path. Interest rates are just, you know, mortgage backed securities are getting slaughtered, but I also can't see why anybody, anybody want to invest money in the mortgage backed security. Honestly, I don't understand why that money is flowing in there. Because if inflation is as high as it is, and you're going to lend somebody money, potential for 30 years risking it for 30 years, you're not getting your money back, you're losing money. But the marketing engine that is the real estate, the mortgage lending world, for the banking world, the marketing engine has convinced people, if you drop it 1%, you should refinance. And so the majority of people will refi, within the first four to five years, you're looking at an amortization, amortization table, the first four to five years, they're taking advantage of you, because you're all you're doing is paying an interest and then you put you back into a heavy interest period, they're gonna continue to keep them just just sucking money from you is what they're doing.
So they're, I believe, there's going to come a point that we're going to taper off, things might get a little bit better. And if it does that, within the next year or two, I'm going to highly encourage you, if you got suckered into a short term loan on a long term hold, get into a long term loan, get yourself comfortable. I always say control what you can control for as long as you can control it. And you can't do that in a short term loan. It's just not going to work that way.
Michael:
Yeah. No, I love it. And from a mindset perspective, I mean, it, I could see it so easily where you could have given up when you lost everything in a weight when you woke up from when you came out of the hospital, you know, went from a positive network to several millions and negative net worth overnight, seemingly? I mean, how do you get out of that? Because I think, again, it's so easy to go into despair and poor me. What kind of mindset does it take to lift yourself up from that?
Aaron:
Yeah, that that was an interesting question to have to answer. Because not only do you have when you stack it all up, and I have to ask myself several times, how did I get where I'm at? Now, when I look back on that particular thing? It it was, like you said, you get your *** whooped that heavily. You're the everything's taken from you, you can't get you can't walk, you can't think you can't pay for anything. And they're giving you free drugs. And it wasn't just, it wasn't just weak drugs. This was good, good stuff. I don't know if you've ever had a lot of bad stuff. Is that amazing?
Michael:
It's not Advil.
Aaron:
No, it is definitely not Advil, and they were just willingly handing it to whatever you wanted, I had to get off of that. And I had to point myself in the right way. And I was still in a wheelchair, I was still having to deal with all this intense pain, I still had a lot of rods and stuff, multiple surgeries still being done. And I threw the stuff away and like, I don't want it, I gotta get my mind, right, I gotta get focused on where I needed to go. And what it was, as I've never sat still I just never had in my entire existence. So it was the drive to get up and get moving again. It was also that I always had an objective and a goal and where I was heading in life, even if it was just it was never really defined, but it was just kind of floating out there. I decided I was going to go after that I was going to continue after that. But I don't like to do is what was in front of me that day is day after day after day, day after day after day. But I think to the biggest driver at that point was I did not like the person I was before that accident. So I want to do everything I can to be anything but that man. And I am grateful that he was there to show me the way you shouldn't be doing things. But he was the biggest driver to continue to become something different.
And then after that the next big driver was I had a good friend of mine. His name's Joel. He's like a brother of mine. And it's it's a really long story to tell you how we met because we hate each other first. But now he's basically like my brother. And we went out one night with our wives. And at the end of dinner or after the event, we went to walk into our cars we have the opposite direction goes, Hey, by the way, I'm making a big deal happen right now me and my business partner, and it's going to change your life. Like how's it going to change my life? If you're making a deal, he goes, I can't tell you, he goes, but it's going to close here real soon. But it's going to change your life, believe me, I'm gonna change your life.
And as we parted ways, give him a hug. He turns around and walk in his car with both his hands and he goes, I'm going to change your life. And he yells out to me from like, 50 yards away, not knowing what that is. My colon changed my life, dude. Well, let's see what this is. Well, then, short time after that I found out he closed on the second largest. It's now the second largest real estate brokerage in the state of Arizona. And they'd made a deal with another lender to be their premier lender inside. What he wanted me to do is contact that lender and he told them call this guy, I want this guy in your company to work with us. So they called me and we talked about me coming over there. And to go over and meet with them and went through all the back contracts and everything. I'm like, Okay, well see how this goes. And they said we want you to come meet the CEO of the company, but you can't meet the CEO until you do this exercise and they hand me this five year vision that the CEO had for himself, you know, his five year plan and then they told me gave me the elements of the five year plan.
Cool. So I wrote this out like this is all bullcrap. Nobody does this. None of this crap works as goal setting stuff is stupid. But Fine, I'll do it. Just so I can meet the CEO, Joel opened up the door on going to do a jewel asked me to do like sat down. I wrote out this audacious freaking plan, right? The best month I've had before that was 18 Maybe 18 transaction that due in a month. And I think I closed maybe 20 Some million a year or 25 million, maybe 30 million year my best year. Well, I wrote this thing I was going to do 100 million a year and my staff is gonna grow by this and that in that net over the five year window, no ideas, I set it up as a story. I'm sitting on along Rubicon Trail in my chair with a fire gun. My wife's next to me, we got the Jeep parked there were searing steaks on the on the trail grill, and I'm thinking back on my life or last five years, and I'm writing a letter to myself of everything that happened.
So then I went forward, I met the CEO, he's like, this is the most unique five year plan I've ever seen written, we would love to have you come work for us. Now, incidentally, I didn't go work for those guys. It didn't work out. But I stuck with that five year plan. And I continue to follow that five year plan to go back and look at it look at it. I blew through everything on there and doubled it. Because I wrote it down. And then I discovered a few write things down things happen. So one of the next things that I'm doing, I have a book out there shows people I'm working on another book with Robert Allen, if you know who Robert Allen is, but we're working together on a book. So he wrote the book, no money down in the 80s. The guy was basically
Michael:
Oh, yeah. Okay.
Aaron:
So he's an absolute bad***. I mean, Robert is awesome. And we're writing this book as if me sitting there talking to an eight year old about how life or 18 year old about how life works. And it's taking a beating. So it's how to take a beating. And that beating is actually how you learn. And explain why believe that. And so on and on be teaching people within the first chapter, then all the way through the book on how to write this out, and then help people come to me will sit you down, I'll take it in an environment. And there's more stories about how that got done. And other ways I've used writing it down to become successful, and show people you write this stuff down. It's amazing how the universe starts to line up to get things done for you.
Now, when it comes to a beating, right, the one thing is that we have noticed that we as humans learn better by getting our butts kicked. And I believe that there's this Bigfoot that wakes up at about 7:30 Every day, this big, ominous invisible foot to kick your *** all day long if you let it. If you so think about this, I wake up at 4:30 in the morning, I get up way before the foot does and I do what I want to do, right I sit down, I send a message to my team, every single morning, I read, I write, I do the stuff that I need to do I have prayer before I get started all that and then I go and I work out every single day. So but if you're a person who wakes up at 7:45, and you got to be the office by eight, the foots already up, right, it's already kicking your *** the second you put your foot on the ground from from the from your bed to try and get to the bathroom, you stumble into this, you stumble into that your day is just wrong from the very beginning.
Get up before the foot does, you got to figure out where your personal foot wakes up. That's out there to kick your butt. And you got to get up before the foot doesn't plan your day and start executing on that. The other things that I've noticed with people, you know, how we learn, we do have to take a beating learn so you need to dissect every beat you've got so what am I learning from this? And how do I need to take from that, and let me illustrate how I know that. That's how that's true. I was six years old. And my parents put me in a Pentecostal school for my first grade year. I didn't go to kindergarten straight to first grade. And it was this Pentecostal church in this small town. And they had everything from first to high school senior all in one church and everybody had their own little thing and you had different teachers for all of it. And I segmented us first graders off for the first three months and we're meeting in the little room and they were teaching us the alphabet and numbers. And as they're going through the alphabet every letter was had a nursery rhyme style Limerick to it and a filmstrip. Now you may be a little too young to remember filmstrips. But it's up…
Michael:
No I got it, I got it.
Aaron:
Okay, so you got the film strips got the little thing. You'll play the music and here's the beep and you flip it to the next next slide, right? It's basically slides. Well, it was a it was the we got to the letter M. And the letter M was about this mule named Milton. And the way the nursery rhyme when it says Milton the mule he made a mistake as you read a map, you walked in a lake. And as it's going through those filmstrips, you've got this cartoon mule walking down the road, in a suit holding this map, and then you see him falling in this lake. Well me being me, even at six years old, I redid the limerick, and I said it out loud. So instead of having Milton falling out falling in a lake, I had him ******* in a bucket. I know it's stupid. Right? The six year old stuff. The little girl sitting next to me did what you just did, she laughed about it. That didn't go over well with the teacher. Now the teacher happened to be the wife of Noah, who was also the pastor. She heard all this so she grabbed both of your ear lobes. Walk the straight to the principal's office and sat us down in these chairs.
This guy was not a small guy. He was a big man. So he's the pastor. He's the principal. He made me repeat exactly what I said. When I was done. He turns around he picks up this old aircraft aluminum style briefcase, sets it on his desk, puts in the code opens it and very ceremoniously turns it so I can see the contents had a padded interior cut out to houses pattern. So then he pulls the paddle out makes us both stand up and turn around and put our hands on the on the chairs. She got one swap I got two because I'm the one that came up with the limerick. Now it wasn't that hard. My dad's Irish my mom was Spanish Believe me I that way harder buttons for a lot less than what that guy gave me. But it was The gravity of the situation that caused the tears to flow. And then I also knew I had to face my dad that night. He always told me if you go to the principal's office, you're getting an *** whoppin. Well, I did. I got a pretty good one. But ultimately, the main reason I bring that story up is there's how many letters in the English language?
Michael:
There’s 24
Aaron
It’s 26?
Michael:
That's so embarrassing.
Aaron:
I know. I googled that I thought it was 24 as well very recently, and I go, so yeah, there's 26. So 26 letters, which we just established. How many guy remember the limerick for?
Michael:
How many did you remember the limerick for? You probably remembered him for all of them. But for sure M.
Aaron;
Just one. That's the only one I remember. I remember the letter M. I don't know anything about the other ones. That was 42 years ago, I can only recite the one for letter M I don't remember what the other ones were about. I can't remember you even articulate what the letter A would have said for it be what it stood for. But remember what M step four? Why do I remember it because I got my *** beat. That's why.
So we as humans learn very well through a beating. So what I tell people don't take, don't take a beating is something that's bad, learn whatever you got to do, just don't take the same beating. There's nothing wrong with making mistakes, just make new mistakes. Because you're making new mistakes, you're still advancing. There's nobody, that people who fail to get ahead in life make the same mistake over again. The other there's another thing that they say is there's two types of people never amount to anything. A person that can't do it, they’re told, and a person that can do nothing but. I would say take the time, and analyze that to people that will never amount to anything, a person that can't do what they're told, and a person that could do nothing but.
Those are some very, very powerful words to sit and think about. And you have to figure out who am I? What am I getting done? What kind of *** whopping am I taken on a daily basis? And I said the same one over and over again. What do I got to do to make adjustments so I could advance myself and get away from this beating I keep taking.
Michael:
Man Mike drop exit stage left Aaron Chapman, everybody. This was so much fun, man. How do people get in touch with you if they need you?
Aaron:
Best way is Aaron chapman.com Or just go to Google and type in Aaron chat and you see a bald bearded redneck lender you got the guy.
Michael:
That's you awesome, man. This was so much fun. Aaron thank you again for coming on for the third time. This was definitely the one that did it. We'll do it. We'll be in touch man.
Aaron:
Thanks, brother. Appreciate you man.
Michael:
Likewise, you got it.
Okay, everyone that was our episode A big thank you to Aaron for coming on today and the other two episodes as well. If you didn't catch those, I highly recommend you give those listened to Aaron dropped some really fantastic wisdom, knowledge and thought perspective on where we're headed in the next couple of months and yours with the market.
As always, if you enjoyed the episode, we'd love to hear from you with a rating or review wherever it is get your podcasts and we look forward to seeing on the next one. Happy investing
In this second episode with Aaron Chapman, we discuss how much interest rates actually matter. Over the past couple of years, low interest rates have allowed people to get into a deal and see immediate cashflow. But with interest rates rising, many are concerned that they are not seeing immediate positive cash flow. Is that a deal breaker? Should investors sit on the sidelines and wait for rates to drop once again? Or should investors be thinking about real estate like other business models and be willing to put their capital into a deal and expect to see profits occur over a longer time horizon? Tune in to hear Aaron’s unique take on these questions.
Aaron Chapman is a veteran in the finance industry with 25 years of experience helping clients better understand, source, and finance cash-flow positive investment properties. He advises over 100 clients a month in the acquisition and financing of their investment properties and primary residences. Aaron is ranked in the top 1% of mortgage loan processors in the country, in an industry of over 300,000 licensed loan originators, closing in excess of 100 transactions per month.
Episode links:
https://apps.apple.com/uy/app/qjo-investment-tool/id1533823468
https://www.aaronbchapman.com/
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Transcript
Before we jump into the episode, here's a quick disclaimer about our content. The Remote Real Estate Investor podcast is for informational purposes only, and is not intended as investment advice. The views, opinions and strategies of both the hosts and the guests are their own and should not be considered as guidance from Roofstock. Make sure to always run your own numbers, make your own independent decisions and seek investment advice from licensed professionals.
Michael:
What's going on everyone? Welcome to another episode of the remote real estate investor. I'm Michael Albaum and today joining me again, I got Aaron Chapman. And in case you missed, here's prior episodes, definitely go back and give that a listen. But Aaron is a lender in the residential mortgage industry. And he's got a wealth of knowledge and experience under his belt. And today we're talking about how much interest rates actually matter to doing our deals. So let's get into it.
Aaron Chapman, welcome back, man. Good to see you.
Aaron:
Good to see you too, man. It's good to be back. In fact, it hasn't been long.
Michael:
For those of you that caught our prior episode with Aaron, we are recording this back to back so we figured we just knock it out.
Aaron:
I don't I don't have a dozen of these specific shirts for those who are wondering.
Michael:
Like, yeah, he bearded his braid exactly the same and wearing the exact same hat and funny, he's in the exact same location. So Aaron, today we're talking about how much rates really matter. And you've been in the mortgage business since 97. For those folks that didn't catch your bio and background go and get that first episode listen to let's talk about like how much rates matter, man, like rates are creeping up, not keeping up but seem to be running up as to where they were previously. And I'm hearing a lot of folks kind of get scared and spooked and want to hang on the sidelines until rates come down. So give us a little bit insight is that right thinking? Is that the wrong thinking help drop some knowledge?
Aaron:
Well, it's I like to tell everybody so level of your everything has to do with a level your comfort, right? Your ability to get in there and, and slug it out and make things work? Because it all has to be about interest rate. And are you really a real estate investor, because that's why I work with as a real estate investor, opportunity is only sitting in front of you at the time that it's in front of you. And often people are trying to get the market to line up and I look at that kind of like watching a star football player sitting on the bench on the sidelines, waiting for the perfect time to jump on the field to get on the highlight reel. Well,
Michael:
That's such a good analogy.
Aaron:
We're on the field at the time the game is being played, right? They're not sitting on the sidelines at all. It's amazing how often people think that they have the capability to time something and most people trying to time it have never time the damn thing in their life. Right. In fact, most of them are fairly new new investors or investors with maybe you've had five or six houses. So you feel like you're a seasoned investor. I've been doing this for 24 years I've been at this since 1997. I'm barely seasoned in what I do. And the reason I feel that I'm barely seasons, because I do over 1300 transactions a year for real estate investors, I get to see where a lot of people are making decisions, or a lot of people are making mistakes and where a lot of people are doing it right where a lot of people failing or a lot of people are succeeding.
What I tell all my all the people I work with is there's this old saying good judgment comes from experience and experience comes from bad judgment, great way to learn on the grade school playground of very, very tough way to learn in real estate. So don't go about trying to figure out things that way yourself. Reach out to me, I got to see for 1000s of people have made decisions. I'll guide you through that telling you stories. I don't answer questions. I tell stories as to what I've seen other people do. So you will have practical data, not speculation in theory, and then hopefully, hopefully, we're able to guide you in a way that makes you successful now is it going to be successful every time you make a decision? No, you're going to hit a brick wall between those brick walls, that just means you got to change your direction and keep moving and keep moving and keep moving.
So then you eventually find success because you become nimble enough become successful, it does not benefit me to close a deal and you fail, because that's only one deal. I need your 100th deal. That's what makes my business work is to do this dozens of time with you not just one time and walk away. That's not the business I built. So when it comes to interest rates, you need to get comfortable with it and understand that you're never the price of money is always going to move. But what we also have is the price of housing is always moving. You know, we talked about in last episode, the average rent is going up by 12%. Year over year. I don't expect that to be sustainable. I think it's probably a go up, you know, maybe seven, but it's going to keep going right? We have we're short how many houses right now in the United States,
Michael:
I think like 5.2 million or something of that effect.
Aaron:
5.2 million and what's the building looking like right now people are not there's not a lot of construction going on, compared to what the demand is. We've got a hurricane, they just wiped out on how many houses we don't even know that the full total that devastation and then the ability of the supply chain to be able catch up with that. And then of course there's talk of another pandemic coming which we saw the effects of that one, and how well handled that mess was. You start stacking all these things up rents and quarterly rental increases are here to stay. So when you're on that end of it, and you get to continue to increase your rents effect, let's do the math real quick here. Let's say, let's say you got $100,000. House, you're renting it for $1,000 a month. Right. And now you get to raise the rent by 3%. Well, they're saying you're only getting say 60 bucks a month in cash flow. That's not sexy. You're not getting excited, right?
Michael:
That's a couple of Chipotle is with guacamole.
Aaron:
Exactly. So 60 bucks right now, not a big deal. So you raise the rents by 3%? What's 3% of 1030 bucks, 30 bucks, nothing. It's actually nobody's excited. Again, what's really cool about is your tenant won't get excited. And I can just up and move and know the night and dump concrete down the toilet. Right? So it went up by 30 bucks. But you're making $60 a month cash flow, you're one now you're making 90. So what percentage did your cashflow go up by?
Michael:
50%.
Aaron:
That’s a 50% compound growth in your cash flow. So what you start to see here is over time, it's not going to happen right away. You know, it's not, it's not Swift, but it is certain that you will continue to get this compound growth in the double digits a year over year over year. But as we talked about, in the last episode, go back and listen and get my get my my tool, the QJO investment tool, and run these numbers, you're gonna find that you're paying back less and less and less for that set mortgage you have, even if the rates go eight, nine, 10%, you're paying back less, because inflation is eroding the dollar. But yet you're increasing at double digits. As far as your cash flow, there will come a point that one catches the other and you surpass it. It's much like any investment that a person does. It's amazing how we can talk ourselves into getting into other types of investment vehicles, like all but if you stick with it for three, four years, you're gonna see it really grow or 10 years or whatever. But yet you get into a house. And also we think of it as an expense. When it comes to real estate. It's not you're not spending money and going into debt. You're a business owner, that is now the pass through for this capital, you get to increase.
Michael:
I love that. I love that. Aaron answer me this because I think it's something that I've been hearing from a lot of people I know for sure, in the Roofstock Academy is folks saying, Michael, five months ago, I could go buy a house for 150 grand and make 100 bucks cash flow at three and a half 4%. Now that same have that same price, the same purchase price is still 150 grand, but now I'm paying seven and a half percent that eroded all my cash flow. Does that mean I should still go buy that deal? And hang on for those first couple of years? Because I'm going to get that double digit compound growth with the rental increase? Or do I just need to go find a new deal? Or potentially a different market?
Aaron:
I've got I've got a few answers that I would give right. And I sometimes depends on the individual, right? Because I do ask them Okay, so what do you think right? Now let them tell me, because I want to find out what's going on your head, right? So tell me what your first instinct is. But if they're asked me exactly what I would do, I mean, again, I might get cut out here, guys, when I was gonna have your balls attached or are they there for decoration, right? Nobody has ever made a fortune because they they want out of the gate. Nothing is ever has ever paid what a few things are paid off out of the gate, right. But most times they don't. We had a history of people making this amazing cash on cash return for the last, what 10 years, it was the easiest thing in the world to sell cash on cash return for the real estate sales side of it. I think my personal belief is the real estate sales side of it has actually put themselves in a corner, and they're trying to claw their way out of it. Because we spent so much time talking cash on cash. We never talked about the rest of the ways people made money. It never got discussed.
For the last eight, nine years. I've talked about everything but cash on cash return, if they take that metric and throw it away, take their performance somebody gave you because that's that's Greek for bullcrap. It doesn't mean anything. They made those numbers up. Right? So let's talk about reality. Right? And reality is business is going to cost you something nobody has ever opened up a shoe store was profitable in the first five years, right, you have to have a certain amount of capital to get started, everything needs a certain amount of capital to get started. You're the CEO, the CEO of your startup real estate investment firm, that means you are going to be a lot more discerning about what kind of property you buy, when you're not making $200 a month cash flow out of the gate than you would be when your before making cash no matter what happened because of interest rates are so low, they softened all the blows.
But now, because of things the way they are, you're going to become a better CEO, you're going to sink more, you're going to take more time to understand what you're buying, you're going to buy the right property. And that's what it's all about. What can you keep reasonably rented for the entire time you own it, and what can you raise rents on that's it. If you can get that to line up and that alone, you will continue you will see that compound increase we were talking about. You may have to nurse that that investment along for the first couple of years. But then you're going to get that compound set and forget it kind of growth. And that's where I tell people it's going to teach you to be a real estate investor now. The people that are not real estate investors, they're out we're not gonna have to deal with them anymore. You're not gonna have to fight with the masses of people try To get in on that one deal and bidding at too high, what you're going to have is people gonna be very, very discerning, and you're become a smarter person as a result.
Michael:
Yeah, I think it makes a lot of sense. And I was just going to ask you, but I think you kind of beat me to it, do you think we're going to see the investment investor pool thin out, because folks are looking at deals and saying, the numbers don't work, I can't invest in this, or they bought deals two months ago, and are now getting burned by it?
Aaron:
Yeah, I think we're going to see people get out of it. And we're gonna have some of the true investors be able to capitalize on it, that people understand what they're getting into, they're gonna jump in there, and they're gonna be able to weather this properly. Because it's about the it's about the real estate itself. It's not about the loan, it never was about the loan, you know, we had the loan was a way of getting a lot of people involved. And probably a lot of people shouldn’t have been involved with, they got involved anyway, right. And so they're still going to do well, because what's really cool about that, if you got that in that loan, that 3%, or 4%, or 5%, loan, that is an, that's an asset in itself. That's a massive asset. In fact, any loan for 30 years is a massive asset. But that's even even bigger assets. So now you have a tradable commodity, if you will, because now it's like hey, I can I can hold this house, and I can literally kind of sell this into with a with an owner financing kind of deal or something to that effect.
Now how that will play out, don't say Aaron Chapman said it's okay to do this. You got to check with your lender, make sure you're not putting yourself in a bad spot, talk to an attorney, all that kind of thing. There's instruments to make that happen. I'm not your guy to guide you through that. I'm just saying that that's a valuable thing to lock money up in single digits. Think about that single digits, because if you go back to 1971, all the way till 2009, the average interest rate for somebody living in a house was 9.1%. If you take that 1971 Till now, the average interest rate was 7.76%. For somebody living in the house, that was not real estate investors. The only reason it went down from 9.1 to 7.76. Is because of quantitative easing. When did quantitative easing start, Michael?
Michael:
Man, I didn't know I thought it was just gonna be an interview. I didn't know it was gonna be a frickin test. When did it start?
Aaron:
I'd love to quiz everybody. Because here's why your mind starts thinking and now you're gonna remember the answer. We're gonna give it to you.
Michael:
That's true.
Aaron:
Hopefully, because I'm gonna ask you next time. So quantitative easing didn't start till after the crash crash happened in 2008 2008. We'll talk about that in our next time we come together because that right there had to teach resiliency to a lot of people. Well, then the government decided, Okay, we're gonna start this quantitative easing thing, we're gonna take US Treasury capital flowing through the Fed. And we're going to start buying into mortgage backed securities and into treasuries in was a corporate bonds and all of these other things. And as a result to doing that started January 1, 2009, till the end of March 2010, the Fed dumped $1.25 trillion into the market, just in that short window of time to bring interest rates down and start getting the economy going again. But now, they couldn't stop it, and they kept it going and kept going kept going, then you get to the pandemic of 2020. Now, we just talked about 1.25 trillion between March January 2009, to end of March 2010. Now you get to March 20, 2020. From March 20 to march 30. They dumped in another trillion in 10 days to basically bring the market off of where it was because the market crashed. Right. We had a massive meltdown in the in stocks.
What happens? What happens if people have more? Have stocks on margin when stocks dropped that far?
Michael:
Oh big problem.
Aaron:
Yeah, massive, I've got a margin call, right? Well, banks don't take our money that we deposit and just stick it in the vault, right? They invest it places, they need to make money on that money, they're gonna pay us our little pittance of whatever, right? They're gonna continue to make money on it? Well, a lot of times, they're gonna have that money into the markets and stocks and other equities. And as a result of that, they may have no margin, they did have no margin, they gotta pay a margin call. They can't just go back to the coffers. Because the the vaults empty, they have it all on investment. So they have to sell assets, what assets did they sell, they sold mortgage backed securities. Interest rates spiked during that window of time. It was it was amazing how much they spiked. The fact got to the point, I couldn't lock rates now. Now and again, the rates will be published might have five people on my team all ready to go. And I just kept refreshing the rates all day. As soon as there's ready to go, we could we'd lock 50 loans at a time. And they were ugly rates, but people needed to lock.
And so we had this message that we're going to continue to keep business flowing during that window of time. But then they got that trillion dollars dumped in there, they got seeing semi stable, they're dumping 30 to $40 billion a month in the market, sometimes more hundreds of billions of dollars a month in the market, trying to keep this money flowing. And that's how we got our interest rates down into the threes and fours.
So because of that, all that capital going in there, we had this this run on lower interest rates. So from January 2009. Up until just this last year, we had all this capital dumped into the keep the rate so that's what gave our average that a little bit lower point. But you know, some people are saying well, can we just get an ARM and wait for the rates to go back down? What makes you think they're going back down? The only time they went down from that average of 9.1 was when they dumped eight Point $9 trillion into the markets? Are they doing that again? I think they've learned their lesson not to do that.
Yeah.
Aaron:
So if that's the case, and let's just say that's the case, let's say, somebody's actually going to learn from history, and we're not going to erase history, we're not going to call it you know, whatever, whatever make up whatever we want to make up about it and say we're triggered by it, we're actually gonna remember this move was a bad move. I don't see interest rates getting back anything lower than what we have right now, this might be the lowest interest rates that we see in our lifetimes.
Michael:
Interesting. Over the last 30-40 years, when we've seen interest rates spike like they have hasn't there been a pretty sharp decline after the fact?
Aaron:
We have seen that a lot in our lifetime, just because of what I was just talking about with the Fed manipulating it. But prior to that, we didn't see that very much. We saw interest rates, hovering in fact, I got in the industry in 1997, the interest rates are in the sevens. And then that was for owner occupied. And then when they went down, like 6.875, I got this refi boom going on. In fact, you know, I was working two jobs, I was running heavy equipment in the morning, from 3am till noon, they go to the office from two till 10pm, I sleep four hours a day, for for a full year. But for the until those rates dropped below 7%, I was able to replace my income of 50, whatever, thousand a year at the time, and got full time into this industry. Well, as a result of that, you know, we got this 6% thing going on. And it never really got much lower than that we saw a window where the during the mid 2000s, that I was able to get an adjustable rate loan, like a five year ARM don't like 5.75. But that was it. It wasn't until quantitative easing do we start seeing these enormously low rates.
So we're not seeing these massive swings, like we see now, then the swings happen to be because we have a global market that everybody's tapped in, we get to see everything that's going on in real time, all the time. That's one of the really, really bad things of social media in the way our, our our technology is, what it's done for us has brought us to where we see the slightest thing happened. But on the other side of the world, it kills markets overnight. So that's why I see such massive swings. So some people think, well, if it goes down as we come right back up. We don't know that because there's another black swan waiting right around the corner. Why do we know that because we know what's going to happen in the other country when it happens.
It'd be one thing we were just a an economy to ourselves. And it was not such a big big market mover. Now we're a global economy. And we have we have crazy people out there running countries, including our own doing stupid things that's causing such a massive swings and so much so much emotion in the market that I can't say it's going to improve. Now it's going to have to I mean, there will be some but to the extent we've seen I don't believe so.
Michael:
Yeah. Interesting.
Aaron:
Let me just say I pray I'm wrong.
Michael:
Yeah. That makes two of us man.
Aaron:
You're wrong. We're back in the season. We're good because I'm making another couple million dollars a year.
Michael:
I love it. Someone if they didn't have the wisdom of hearing this show five years ago, three years ago, when they got their five, one ARM and now they got two years left on it and they got a 5% They got the ability to lock in a 6% for 30 years say? Or do they roll the dice and let it roll for another two years? See where interest rates land? What are you doing?
Aaron:
I think goes back to that are your balls attached situation, just see, see what you're willing to do? Right, you're the ones guy put your head on the pillow at night, you got to be able to understand how you feel about. Me, I love to control things for as long as I can control it. I'll take my lumps. And I'll take that 6% all day long. Because I would much rather allow inflation to erode the dollar over a long period of time. Rather than forcing me in a situation like that. I've had too many people that I've talked to that did the ARM thing in somebody else's request even at my own. I mean, I did the there's something out there right now called the all in one. This is a big deal. Back in the early 2000s. We sold something very, very similar to this. It just wasn't called the all in one.
And when the market freaked out in 2008. And they started freezing these people's credit lines, I got numerous calls saying What did you put me in? Because I didn't know what was going to happen. Now I do know. And everybody says, well, they're not going to do that. What makes you think I'm not going to do that? The banking industry will do whatever the heck they want to do. They'll shut down. They will kill product, they will not honor locks. They'll wipe anything out that makes it work for them on the next day. They don't care about what they committed to today. They care about what it keeps them in existence tomorrow. As a result of that. I know that's what they do. I've seen them do it. I can't in good conscience do anything but tell person Hey, the 30 year fix so far is the only one with a proven track record.
Michael:
Yeah, that makes a ton of sense. How did you think about the interest? I know you said it's not all about the interest rate. But let's put that on the shelf for a minute. If someone's got a property that they're not thrilled with its performance, but they've got this outrageously low rate and a 30 year fixed. Do you think time is going to heal that wound or do you think they should maybe look to move into something else at a higher rate, but that they might be a little bit happier with?
Aaron:
I think it really, really depends upon the scenario what's making them so unhappy about it, is there a possibility to try to change whatever is making them happy unhappy about that there's something about the property, this specific thing that's creating a difficulty with it, is it just not being rented because of this or because of that, you know, it may be one of those times, we have to spend some time understanding what's happening in the market that's causing that property to be what it is, right? People coming by either I don't want to rent this thing. Because of this, or because of that, it could be a very simple thing. You know, when we own something we don't see with our lens very, very well, we see, hey, this is what the possibility is because we can only see from one angle, but when you get the whole market's angle on a multiple people are willing to come through a look at it, sit them down and ask them, Hey, can you tell me what what about this place? What would have to happen to that make it something so yes, I do want to rent this, or yes, this I can make my home for five years?
Understand that is sometimes you might have to bite the bullet, put a few bucks into it. And next thing, you know, now you have a very low interest rate, which again, that right there is, is is a very, very valuable piece in itself. And then you have whatever changed on this house that now makes it what it needs to be. And its location that might be something's completely, you know, one of these things you can't fix, right? You have to find the one person in the world that wants that and carry a note for them and see if you can swing something like that. But if it's something that's changeable because of aesthetics, or or usability, or it's just whatever that might be, you might have to bite the bullet and fix that one thing.
But investigate it first, before you try and make a very, very big decision. Like leave it as is and suck it up and write it out or dump it and move because I've seen I've got a very good friend of mine, named Joel, he owns a lot of shopping centers. I don't understand shopping centers. This guy's like the walking talking Stephen Hawking of shopping center this guy, just look at it, tell you what's wrong with it, and make it make money overnight. And the guy's amazing at what he's able to do. And because one person can't make it work, you have a guy like Joel come in, he looks at it makes an offer, they sell it cheap. He spends a few bucks. And now that thing's fully rented, and it's worth 10 times what he paid for it. It's just a matter of getting the right perspective. Take the time, understand the market, get the perspective.
Michael:
I love that. I love that. Aaron, I want to get you out of here until next time, but in the meantime, where can folks if they didn't catch on the first episode, reach out to learn more about you or get a hold of one of your loans?
Aaron:
Just go to aaronchapman.com And if that one doesn't work, go to aaronbchapman.com. Another good place to just Google Aaron Chapman. There's like five of us out there that pop up on Google there's only one bearded redneck lender there is a pastor there's a there's a English soccer player there is a an author and then camera with the other guy is but yeah, there's five and I'm an author as well so you can go to you can look me up on Amazon that kind of stuff. I'm working on another book got a few things cooking.
Michael:
Right on man love it. Well hey, this was awesome as always and until next time, looking forward to it be well.
Aaron:
Thanks, buddy. Good to see you again.
Michael:
Likewise.
Alright everyone that was our episode A big thank you to Aaron for coming on again dropping some fantastic wisdom, insights and knowledge. As always, if you enjoyed the episode, feel free to leave us a rating or review and we look forward to seeing the next one. Happy investing
Aaron Chapman is a veteran in the finance industry with 25 years of experience helping clients better understand, source, and finance cash-flow positive investment properties. He advises over 100 clients a month in the acquisition and financing of their investment properties and primary residences. Aaron is ranked in the top 1% of mortgage loan processors in the country, in an industry of over 300,000 licensed loan originators, closing in excess of 100 transactions per month.
In today’s episode Aaron gives us his take on the current interest rate and inflationary environment, where he sees things going, and his thoughts on what investors should be doing in a time like this.
Episode link:
https://www.aaronbchapman.com/
https://apps.apple.com/uy/app/qjo-investment-tool/id1533823468
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Transcript
Before we jump into the episode, here's a quick disclaimer about our content. The Remote Real Estate Investor Podcast is for informational purposes only, and is not intended as investment advice. The views, opinions and strategies of both the hosts and the guests are their own and should not be considered as guidance from Roofstock. Make sure to always run your own numbers, make your own independent decisions and seek investment advice from licensed professionals.
Michael:
What's going on everyone? Welcome to another episode of the remote real estate investor. I'm Michael Albaum and today I'm joined by Aaron Chapman, who's a lender, investor, bearded man and entrepreneur as well as an author and he's going to be talking to us about inflation and using long term debt as your battle ax against it. So let's get into it.
Aaron Chapman, what's going on, man? Thanks for taking the time to come hang out with me. I appreciate it.
Aaron:
What’s happening brother thanks for the invite. I think I kind of pushed my way in a little bit but I just
Michael:
Invite, forced invite.
Aaron:
Let’s put that way.
Michael:
Ya, no happy to happy to and it's been a minute since since we saw each other over think Realty in Tampa. How you bee?
Aaron:
Been very good man. Think Realty in Tampa seems like so long ago, because I've been to Tampa two times since then. Miami a couple of times. Literally, I don't get to see very much of anything. But seats 3d of American Airlines is what it seems like.
Michael:
And that's pretty close up to the front of that first class?
Aaron:
It's always first it's what I've discovered in my career, it used to be you know, you got to you got to hang on to your capital is really kind of dumb to spend money unnecessarily. But then I got to thinking. So like I said first a few times, and I sat next to some amazing people. So it's not about the seat. It's about the person next to you. And more often than not, it's often enough, let's put that I sat next to some people, just some amazing conversations that end up doing business with some people when they didn't want to talk to me. And then it wasn't long, they were talking to me. And then they're giving me pointers, one guy who was like one of the executives over at the Business Journal. And I was finally DC next year, he's telling me all the cool places to go in DC. And now I've seen him pop up online. And I'll check in with him to see what's going on just a really cool guy that I recognized him by couldn't place who he was, until I got in talking. And then I found figured out who he was. So it's just, that's the kind of person that I ended up sitting with. And it's more the conversation than anything.
Michael:
What a different way of thinking about things like so many people see the price of the ticket. They're like, Oh, I don't want to pay that or like the experience. But you're you're approaching with a whole different lens. I love it, man.
Aaron:
Well, it's kind of how I approach going out for an expensive dinner paying a big tip, things like that. It's like, we know what's happening with the dollar right? It's not doing a whole lot sitting in our bank account. And believe me, I agree with holding on to cash, I believe I agree with investing wisely. But I also agree with taking that capital and putting it someplace where you're building relationships and building up somebody else. And so there's times when somebody does a great job, man throwing $100 tip on a on $100 Dinner is not an uncommon thing in my world. And that's not me beating my chest. It's that person earned it and what's that 100 bucks going to do in my world? My wife will ---- it away on somebody Amazon, right? So it's really not going to, it's not going to enhance our lives that much. But you'd be amazed at what it does to that person. And you walk back in there to that place you think that person forgot you? Well, they definitely don't forget me with the braids.
Michael:
I was gonna say yeah, with a look like that. Yeah,
Aaron:
Yeah, that's remembered. But then they remember that. And then it's there's this, I talked about the economy of gratitude a lot, and that autonomy kicks in. And they will do more and go above and beyond. Of course, now you're kind of stuck to $100
Michael:
That’s the minimum, yeah, the bar has been set.
Aaron:
So you got to be careful of how often you do go back or when you go back, you'd be amazed at the interaction you have with this person. It's a life changing experience. Because our like our lives are changed by the people that we interact with. And not necessarily what what we what we grow in it or what we amass in it is the relationships that we have.
Michael:
I love it. I love it. Let's give people the quick and dirty of who you are and where you come from and what is it you're doing in real estate and then we'll jump into kind of the meat what I wanted to cover today.
Aaron:
Very cool. So the quick and dirty is not so quick and but it's kind of dirty. So the interesting thing I was sitting in an event happen to be in Tampa, we were just talking about Tampa. This was years ago and one of the main speakers there talked about the lending industry that being a loan officer and he said the reason people become a loan officers because they can't get a job doing anything else. And it rang really, really true to me because that was my story. You go back to you know, I grew up on a cattle ranch in high school and from there to work in the oil fields in Wyoming drove truck ran heavy equipment, found myself in the mines in northern New Mexico in the late 90s. And they started to shut down the project and so I got laid off and I thought no big deal. I'll find a job easy and I had a wife and kid back in Arizona and I was up in northern New Mexico I go back and forth, went back and I couldn't find a job for nothing. I tried like crazy everything I applied for I got this this statement of being overqualified. I kept getting turned down.
And things were getting dire at that point, I needed to make something happen. And as I left to go apply for a $10 an hour truck driving job to me, it was like the worst thing I could possibly do, but it was gonna put, bring money so I can at least feed my family. My wife as I left gave me a coupon for free diapers. So I drove over to this place, I applied the general manager turned me down again said I was overqualified. So I'm 23 years old, I feel broken, and walking down to my truck up coming from the type one of those job site type trailers go down the stairs. Get on my truck, said a quick prayer. I was really just I was trying to hold back the tears started up my truck and I started pointing myself to this grocery store. Well, as I'm headed to the grocery store, my gas light comes on in my truck. I had never ran that thing long enough to find out how long ago on a gas light. So I quickly found a store that had a groat a gas station on the corner. I pulled up that pump, got my debit card out, I said a quick prayer, prayer, I swiped it and I got declined.
So I rifle through my truck looking for a lost dollar, found a few coins, I closed it lock the door, I started walking that grocery store pocket parking lot. And as I'm looking around, you know, I would find something on the ground look, make sure nobody's looking, reach out quickly pick it up, put in my pocket. This went on for what seemed like a couple hours. And then I got enough change that I thought would give me a couple gallons of gas. Luckily, it was 97 were Yeah, 1997 I think gallon, a gallon, a gallon gas, like 89 cents. So I went and exchanged my change, which was a couple hours of my life for two gallons of gas, went into the grocery store with my coupon, found those diapers hurried up and went to the checkout counter. I don't know if you've ever been this position, but nothing feels worse to, in my opinion, to have one item and your coupon for that one item. Right. And now it was just another just another crappy feeling to the day. So I got my stuff put in the bag, and I'm screaming either as fast as I can. And somebody recognized me.
He called me over and I didn't want to talk to anybody. But he asked me how things were. And I told him what I just told you. He goes, Let's go to dinner. I'm like, Dude, I can't afford dinner. And I hated saying that. He was no, no, no, I got a gift certificate to Red Lobster. I'll take you your wife out. So we went to Red Lobster a couple of nights later. And that's where he told me about the mortgage industry. He explained to me what happened in it? And I'm like, Dude, how can I do this? I know nothing about that. I think there's numbers involved, and I cheated my butt off to get that C in high school. If it wasn't for the fact that could pick a lock, I would not have graduated.
So I went in, I cut a foot off of my hair, I shaved. My mom bought me some business likes clothes, and I wouldn't do an interview. And they started me as a telemarketer in 1997. So that's how I got going. So going from a telemarketer to working actually some of my own leads to building this up and going through the crash and all kinds of stuff. And there's a bunch of stories in there. To now, you know, I was just called by an outfit by modex. And they recognize me I think is the number six guy in the United States. For transactions closed. I was number one guy in Arizona, I didn't even realize that I didn't really pay attention to the statistics, there's 1.6 million people in United States that do what I do. And from what I can tell, I'm ranked number six for how many deals I closed last year. So it's kind of an interesting dynamic to consider that swing.
Michael:
Yeah, I'll say, Well, you know, congratulations on how you've come clearly a long way. That's really exciting.
Aaron:
Well, thank you. And there is campfire story after a campfire story of of the different things we'll probably talk about this in the series of stuff we talking about the beatings that a person takes to become successful. And you don't what's really interesting is people say, How do you get there? How do you how do you achieve success? Mike, I'll let you know when I do. Because you just don't feel like it all the time. It's a consistent grind. You're always trying to be ahead of the head of everybody else. And once you achieve something, it's way harder to keep it.
Michael:
Yeah, I think people think it's like this just flat curve, you know, flat line once you've achieved something, but really, it's very sinusoidal. It's up and down and valleys and troughs. And you're like, man, some days suck. And some days are great, but the like, I think it's about the end destination right? Where you're trying to get to
Aaron:
100%. So I look at it like Everest, right? You get up there. And I don't know, if you've ever really paid attention. Maybe you've climbed the same for all I know, but how long a person sits on top of Everest, it's a matter of minutes, and they're getting back down because that sucker will kill you. You know, and so it's it's just like any other achievement, we get the second you sit back and you relax and put your feet up. It's gonna kill you. You need to keep moving, you got to get down, you got to get to the next Everest. And it can be debilitating to think that we're constantly hunting the next goal. The next goal, the next goal, instead of just finding the happiness, you know, and you our viewers know who Larry Yatch is he says, you know, success is a optimized daily experience consistently achievable, right, something to that effect there are and so and it's sustainable over time. Yeah. I gotta find that optimized daily experience. Here's what I got to do. I don't think I've achieved finding that yet.
Michael:
I'm right there with you, man. We're in the hunt together.
Aaron:
Yes. And we'll keep hunting and maybe we'll keep communicating about one of these days. You're like, Dude, I found it.
Michael:
Yes. let me show you. So, let's shift gears here a little bit and talk about a topic that I think is on everyone's mind. And that's inflation. And you're working in the mortgage industry for a long time, you've seen a lot of ups and downs, sideways lifts, REITs give us a little bit of insight into why is inflation being talked about so much? And what do we as investors need to be cognizant of, and either using it or being abused by it.
Aaron:
So inflation is definitely an interesting animal. And it's talked about a lot, everybody is talking about this constantly. And what I point a lot of people to just even understand inflation is go to a place called Shadowstats.com. When you go to shadow stats, you're gonna go to, and I always encourage everybody to get log into it get to pay for the 100 bucks for the year, whatever, you're gonna go over to alternate data, you're gonna scroll down to inflation, you're going to find this chart, and what this chart has, it's going to be going to show you from 19, from the early 1980s, up until now, and it's going to have two different lines, a blue line and a red line. And they're going to be, they're going to be diverging at some point, they're gonna stay together at one point, they're gonna go down to when they show inflation started work its way down, and then they start to kind of break apart. And what you're watching there is the federal funds rate itself, or not the federal funds rate, but the CPI that the Fed tends to track, and it's what they have changed the index to contain. Right?
So you're familiar with the Dow and the NYSC. And the and the NASDAQ, right? s&p, right, the s&p, none of them have the exact same value Correct. They're all different because they have things in them. Well, if you didn't get into, if you look at the the CPI, the Consumer Price Index, they will stack certain things in there that they can manipulate with monetary policy. And that's what they'll go off of. And you can see in this chart, that it's going to show that that that red line is skipping across the bottom right around their 2% Mark quite a bit, and then it spikes up to about eight and a half 9%, which is where we've been at recently. But if you look at the real rate of inflation, which is the shadow statline, it's going to be pushing up closer to 17. Why is that?
Well, because back in the 80s, they took everything into account, what is the person really literally spending money on to on their day to day life, and they're going to track it so they can see how much their life is changing year over year as far as their expenses. But then they wait a minute, it's getting out of hand, because what we do to pass the law for will increase their their benefits or their social security and the retirement benefits to the rate of inflation. Well, we need to keep this to 2%. Right. So we don't want to raise that really, really quick. That's where you start seeing this particular manipulation? Well, if we're looking at 17%, people should really, really, really be concerned about what's happening with their dollar, because what's the dollar value doing with inflation?
Michael:
Decreasing.
Aaron:
Decreasing, right? It doesn't spend as far. So what I like to do is talk about this in the sense that it's always been that way. And when we're talking about real estate investing, you know, the, in my opinion, where a person does best when it comes to real estate investing is leveraging the property, you know, the way to leverage the properties, get some sort of financing instrument on it, if you're gonna get financing on it, you want to get it for as long as you possibly can. Because at that point, the longer you take a pay, the less you actually pay, because the dollar you're paying it with is worth less and less and less every year.
So I know in today's higher rate environment, we're talking about inflation is pushing interest rates up. And if you look back at the history of inflation, last time, we saw inflation of this, this magnitude, you'll see in some charts that will show the history of inflation, and how it's somewhere right around 20%. But then you can see the history of the interest rates and the interest rates were closer to the same 17-18% for a 30 year fixed. Well, if we're where we are, as far as inflation is concerned, actually inflation was right around this 13 to 15%, where we are today. And then we're talking to interest rates at 19%. Well, the federal funds rate achieved over 20% at that timeframe. We're not there right now. So explain to people is the gap that we have there as a gift.
Right now we're seeing somewhere in the sevens for 30 year fixed interest rates. And that's, you know, we're talking about this in October, the 2022. Do I expect it to get higher that I really do because of all the uncertainty within the market. But if you've locked it in and that interest rate for 30 years, and inflation stays consistently higher than that, you're never even going to pay back what you borrowed. In fact, I have an app to prove that, you know, people want to go to just go to my website, shoot me a message, I'll get you the app. And you can download this thing on your phone. And you can calculate your amortization table and then see what inflation did and how you paid less than what you borrowed over a 30 year window even though you're paying higher interest in what you hoped.
Michael:
We have to come back to that point because that's so counterintuitive and the exact opposite of what everyone tells you. When you look at the sum total you paid over a mortgage. But before we get there, I want to ask is it appropriate to look purely at The rate of inflation against interest rates? Or do we also have to take into account just the pure purchase price that we're seeing today? Or is it become irrelevant?
Aaron:
I think they're all a factor. Because sometimes when you're let's look back at interest rates go backwards a year, right? Interest rates were in the threes and fours were people buying investment properties. Unbelievable, we'd never actually seen that, and never thought that I would ever see that. But what's happened to the prices of houses, what what you're doing is you're opening up where they were, they say the affordability index had a right how that worked in and more people could afford houses. Well, the more people that could afford houses, the more people bidding on those houses, right, the more of those houses got bid up beyond their real value, price does not equal value in an environment like that people are just willing to pay an enormous amount of money.
Well, because of that, all that affordability, it was so so called built into it because of lower interest rate was getting eroded by the fact that pushing the price so high. So now we're at this really interesting point where the prices are still fairly high compared to, to the, I'd say the real value of real estate because of what people are willing to pay. But our interest rates have increased to not quite to the highest it could and it's really not as high as the national as the average has been since 1971. But it's going to slow that down, I think an equilibrium equilibrium is going to kick in here at some point. And you might see those prices start to decrease a bit. And then of course, it's going to make a little bit more sense. So there's going to be people sitting on the side and waiting and watching. But then again, are they going to increase or decrease that much this begs the other question, were five point I think 5.2 million units short to fulfill the needs of that for housing United States. And then you're we're already short on that. We don't have as many building permits happening. We don't have the supply chain we used to, and now we have how many houses just got wiped out in Florida, you start compounding all this out, man. I'm telling people if you're in a contract, you probably want to stay in that thing. Because if you're backing out of a contract, because you don't like the price, you don't like the rates. Expect, just imagine what you're gonna like and a year from now, I don't think it's gonna get prettier.
Michael:
Yeah. Yeah, that's really interesting perspective. Let's come back to what you said before about, when you look at the total amount you've paid. Over time, it actually ends up being less than the original amount you borrowed because of inflation. Walk us through that again,
Aaron:
Gladly. And you're probably have to say that a lot to our conversation. Let's go back. You start with a topic. And now I go 100 different ways, because my mind is one, obviously, beautiful mind. There's a dude in here.. just just see it. So you've got. So when you think about our inflation, right, now, let's just take the BS metric that the feds throwing out there eight point, I think we're at 8.63%, if I remember correctly, right. So 8.3%, that means the dollar is losing 8.3% of its value every year. So if you take 8.3%, I'm gonna get my calculator out here on my phone. And we're going to divide that by 12. That means we're losing .691 percent of the value every single month. Is that not alarming .619% of the value every single month. So that's pretty well. So what I have here, and I'm just going to launch my launch my my app here, and anybody can get it is to QJO investment tool, you can go right to the app store and get the QJO investment tool. They may bleep me out here, guys, but it stands for the quit ------- off investment tool, because I think that's all a person does when they're so worried about interest rates.
So if we're doing say, a 20%, down on a $200,000 property, and you're putting, let's say it's a seven half percent interest rate, you're gonna have a payment of a principal and interest of $1,118.74. Not real bad, right? But now you're gonna pay over that period of time on that interest, you're gonna pay $402,747.56, right? 402K. You got a $200,000 house, you put 20% down, that's $160,000 loan. Right? And then you're going to pay $400,000 In principal and interest people like there's no way in hell, I'm going to do that. But when you recalculate, every time you make a payment, that payment is worth what did we say? Point six 9%? Less? So I'll write $6.90 per dollar. Last, is that right? Or is that? No, that's not quite right. It's eight, it'd be eight cents per dollar per year. So it's point 06 cents per mile. Right? Right. But when you per dollar when you recalculate that every time for 360 months, the actual inflation adjusted payment over 360 months is $152,466. That's less than what you borrowed and that's based on 8% inflation, just 8%
Because you think about that the dollar you're borrowing is seven and a half percent. You're paying a Back at an 8% decline, right now it's bigger than it's 8.3 8.4%. In fact, if you want to look at shadow stats, if you look all the way back, when you look how they track it, it's been over 8% since 2012. So in reality, you're never paying back what you borrowed because you're paying less them what they're getting in the form of interest. You're paying, you're literally getting paid to hold their money. And what's really, really cool about this is where it gets awesome. Because of inflation, we get to raise rents, how much are rents going up year over year right now in the United States?
Michael:
Like seven to 10%.
Aaron:
Last time I saw it was 12. Right? When you average it all out? Dang. Yeah. To a fact,
Michael:
I haven't looked for a while. Clearly,
Aaron:
Property manager in Kansas City. I had him check it out. They ran their books, they figured they said there was like 14.2, we looked at the last year, Mike, wow, this is crazy. I'm looking at what my kids are paying right there. They're in these apartments, and they're bumping up two to $300 every year. To me, it's kind of immoral. Now I get there's costs go up, taxes go up, upkeep goes up, because you got you got supply chain issues, right? You've got workers, the man ain't fixing anything over there really fast. So it's not like I think that they're, they're hurting themselves. From what I'm hearing, right? They're staying in my house now. And again, because of the darn AC has out for a couple of days.
Those kinds of things. So when you think about that, what's going on in that type of environment, they're raising it like that? Well, let's see what I always tell people, we get to raise rents, even at just 5%. That's every time you raise rents, that's a compound on the previous year's rent, and then you compound it again and compounded again. So as you're compounding the increase in your income, you're compounding the decrease in what the lender makes, because they don't get to raise the payment because of inflation.
So eventually, it may suck for the first 2-3-4 years because of your start rate. And because of all that, and you know, people always like to use cash on cash return is their metric. I think it's a BS metric. Guys, that's not that's not ratio, focus. There's other places to focus, we'll talk about it. But when you start adding that up, and really, really working out the math on it over time, you start killing it at about years 5-6-7 And just compounds huge. Those who don't want to be able to hang for the first three to four years of the ones going to be off on the sidelines. And they're the ones going to say that real estate's not the place to be because of interest rates will they're the they're the the people in the crowd. They're the ones that are the spectators, that people on the field, know where it's supposed to be at and they understand it. And those are the ones going to take opportunity.
Michael:
Love it. Aaron, let me ask you this, the Fed has tried to maintain inflation at around two to 3% annually. Right now we're up in that eight plus range. And so we did the math behind if inflation stays there for the duration of the 30 years that you're holding that loan. But if they get things under control, and it drops back down at 3%. I mean, did all of that benefit just get eroded?
Aaron:
Well, we also have to look at what they're dropping by 3% They're dropping their index by 3%. And that's dropping the real rate of inflation by India by 3%. So I don't see that as being eroded because you look back at you know, go back to shadow stats, start looking at what they were they calculate real rate of inflation. We've been over 8% Since what since 2012. You have a consistent increase in inflation, it's going consistently up cost of living has not gotten cheaper. Now, I don't know when you were born, but in 19 in the 1980s I could jump on my, it was the late 80s I could jump on my skateboard my mom gave me $1 Literally $1 Bill, I could go down to the corner store, get a gallon of milk, buy some candy for me and bring change to her. how possible is that right now?
Michael:
Um no, can’t even buy the candy for the dollar right now? No, I just bought a KitKat for a buck. 75 Check it out. That's ridiculous. Dude, it's this dark chocolate and mint. KitKat I'm like such a sucker for dark chocolate. It was amazing. But yeah, Buck 75.
Aaron:
Well, it's probably probably an extra 10 cents for the blend, right? But, but again, kefir dollar 75. So that's what I'm saying a gallon of milk and I could get into it. It wasn't like the big jumbo candy bar, nut it was something. And I brought that change. But that was possible in like 1986, I think is when that was okay. It feels like a little while ago, but it shouldn't have changed that much. But it did. So if you look back at that's not a 2% inflation increase. That's common. That's some serious increase, especially the price of milk today. Right. So we started looking at that the Fed has never really kept it under 2% control.
The other thing is, is our inflation today, I don't know if we're really know the full outcome of what's going to happen with what they did with those printed dollars. They have put $8.9 trillion into the markets that they never were in before. If you look at their holdings with respect to mortgage backed securities and treasuries, $8.9 trillion. Then we have they backed off by point zero 2 trillion. And now we have interest rates more than double what happens when they back off by half. Right? So when you start thinking about what they did, and what we're that we're the the amount of money that's in circulation, there's got to be some really massive moves here to get this under control and One of the things that really kind of stands out to me and if you heard this conversation were Powell, the chairman of the Fed was speaking. One of the things he said, I don't remember the exact words. He says one thing we've learned about inflation is we know very little about inflation. That's alarming.
Michael:
Yeah, big time.
Aaron:
And that was said within the last 45 days, I think 45 to 60 days. So what I am taking by that is inflation. There's this big loaded oil tanker, right, and it's headed towards ground right now. And they didn't get off the throttle early enough with all the stuff they're doing. Now. They're dropping all these anchors, they're hooking up tugboats. They're doing everything think everything they can, but it's too, it's too late. It's going to run aground. And what that happens when it runs aground, I don't know. But it's going to be pretty ugly. And so that's why I tell everybody I'm dealing with, you need to control what you can control for as long as you can control it. And the one thing we can control right now is a 30 year fixed loan. An ARM, Are these things they call, what did they call this thing be all in one loans, it's an adjustable rate, just a single adjustable rate, kind of a credit line? Yeah, great concept. But we have no idea how it's going to react in an environment like this. So for me, it's like whatever you can do to maintain it and keep control of it. And then when you know, we know for a fact that sense right now to close on this 30 year fixed and pay the points and get the rate.
But what I do know is you're not going to pay it back, you're gonna pay less than what you borrowed. When you go with what the bank say, let's go with a five year or seven year, you have to do something with that loan, at some point. What did you just become a new client for the banks, that's what they want. That's what they say in the background, sell the arm because you're insuring your business for the future, the business for who the loan originator, not the person buying houses to rent out and to maintain a business, you are now become somebody's servant, you become a business, somebody else's future, you're a commodity. And I try and tell her but don't become somebody else's commodity control it for as long as you can. Only pull refinances, you can pull the money back out and reinvest into other things. Other than that, let that sucker sit there as long as you can run that out and let somebody else pay the freight.
Michael:
Yeah, that makes a ton of sense. Aaron, I know you deal exclusively in residential mortgages. But can you give any insight into why the commercial markets only have 5- 7-10 year options on their mortgages, as opposed to the 30? year fixed? I mean, I have seen a 30 year fixed, but it's not the Colt 45, like it is in the residential space?
Aaron:
Yes, you're right. It's it's very, very uncommon. Well, because most your commercial mortgages have to be made up by by investor capital or by banks, right. And so banks are going to take depositor capital, and they're going to create this or they're going to create their own type of security. And they're going to be able to get investors come into most investors don't want to let their money sit for 30 years. Most people don't know that when you're letting your money sit for 30 years in an inflationary environment, you're not getting your money, right, we all expect a certain rate of return on if you do any sort of hard money lending. Or if you've ever done anything to that effect, or fix and flips, you're going to calculate your return on investment annually. And I searched for a 12 plus. Right. And I don't know if you listen to Warren Buffett, Warren Buffett was talking about where, you know, some lady came to him. And, you know, she was trying to figure out how to how to invest her money, and it was a lot of money to her, but not to him. And he said, we have any credit cards? And she goes well, yeah. And he goes, we'll pay that off first. Because why would I do that? I'm not making any money. He goes, What are you paying your interest? 18 20% Because I can't make 18%. So I was I don't know how to do that. So get rid of the debt, you know, then I can show you how to make at least 12 to 13. So that's what we all are wanting is get that 12 13%.
You're not going to make that in a 30 year fixed, you just aren't. So what we've had we've we've created a way to kind of subsidized by the system. And we've got this Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. And what they did was they created the mortgage backed securities, luminary did that for anybody who watched the The Big Short. And if you haven't actually watch it. I know this is a family family show. So don't let the kids in there when you watch it, but it explains the history of the mortgage back series security, where it came from. And now what you have is now a tradable piece of paper that people keep just trading around. That's where its value is. Its value is in its trade ability in its liquid tradability as well as the fact that it the performance of the note people making the payments on time. That's what makes that's a valuable piece of paper, not to sit and hold it for 30 years. It's not valuable at all, you're losing money on that paper.
So that's why I think in the commercial world because they have not had this initiative from the from the government say we need to create housing or we need to create people's businesses, right. They didn't have that initiative. They had the initiative when you create housing, when you give people opportunity to live in a home when you give them the best opportunity and mortgage financing. So they created a 30 year fixed and a 30 year fixed has caught hold and become kind of the gold standard is now the the the Qualified Mortgage, if you will, when you get into anything else. So those where you're not really a qualified loan, you don't have safe harbor from the government or do anything outside of that. So that's about my best guess is you can't get anybody to want to put money up for that long for so cheap and lose it, and just and not make a return is really what it boils down to. They probably just rather own the building.
Michael:
Yep. Yeah, that makes sense. That makes sense. Aaron, one final question before you before I let you out of here 15 year fixed versus 30 year fixed, you'll often see a pretty big spread on the interest rate. Does it ever make sense?
Aaron:
We're not seeing as big a spread now as we used to. But here's where I look, it used to be a bigger spread. It's not real big right now, if there is a spread at all. So and one, two reasons we're not seeing as big a spread as we used to, we have a lot of uncertainty in the labor market right now. And as a result, that uncertainty lenders like I don't know, if I want to saddle somebody with a bigger payment, when they may have a an issue with their income in the near future. And if they do have an issue with their income, what is their ability to pay this higher payment versus a 30 year fixed, so we're gonna price it in a way that kind of leads them back to good old fashioned 30 year fixed, because our value in our portfolio is them being able to make their payment. So then when you do compare them side by side, even if it's a lower payment, you can use my, you can't use my calculator, I don't have that feature in this, we will in a future iteration, by run the numbers, when you're paying off a 15 year fixed, even at a three eighths of a percent lower interest rate or even a half, I have found you actually pay more in actual dollars. The reason being you're paying those dollars while they're worth more, rather than stretching out over time when they're worth less, because in 15 years, they're going to be worth a hell of a lot less than they are within the first 15 years.
So those who pay that off quick like that, yeah, feels good. You're getting equity in your house and all that kind of stuff. I'm of the mindset pay the 30 year fixed stretch as far as I can take the extra money I would have paid for 15 and reinvested somewhere else. And as a result of being able to do that multiple different properties and compound it that way I'll generate a lot more wealth. Because when you have when you have a home and I tell people if you're gonna buy real estate investments and get those those single families, duplex, triplex, fourplex, you have two jobs, right, you have to pick the right people to work with on the real estate side. And on the lending side to understand what you're trying to do and will guide you not try and lead you to make them money but lead you to make you money, and then pick the right asset to buy the stays reasonably rent it for the entire time you own it, you can raise rents, if you have that, who pays off the mortgage?
Michael:
The tenants,
Aaron:
the tenant, so if the tenant pays it off, and it's easy to do the math, guys just take 100,000, let's say it's 100? Well, you have to say it's an 80,000, or only about 100,000, our house with 20%, down, you got an $80,000 loan, you divide that up by 30, which is how many years are taken to pay it off, you'll find that it pays off. They're all they're basically giving you $2,666.67 per year, they're giving that to you, right, and that's what you're paying off the mortgage with? Well, you divide that into your investment, which is the money you invested 20,000 plus a 6000 in closing costs as 26,000 your investments grown by 10.25%, every year, do the math, you figure it out yourself. If they're paying it off, you did your job. And that's all you made was done paying off the loan, you made no more cash flow, you put no more out of your pocket, that's 10.25%, predictable, you still have the tax benefits, you still have the appreciation on the home.
So that's before all, all cash flow. So what I tell everybody is let that drag out, it doesn't matter what you do, if you do it on a 15 year note, you're more than likely have to go to your pocket, you're more than likely have to try and maintain that in other ways. And if you're out of a tenant for a month or two, that's really going to hurt your pocket, stretch that thing out. If you really feel like you want to get it paid off 10 years you can all in 15 years, you can always pay a 30 like a 15 You can never pay a 15 like a 30.
Michael:
Yeah, it's very I always tell people to there you have the optionality with 30 year and that you don't have the 15.
Arron:
Options or everything. You know, that's all people want is to be able to make a decision for themselves. But when you pitch and you back yourself in the corner, and you're not allowed to decide for yourself, that's when you're frustrated, that's when you get angry, leave yourself out. It's a good business move to leave yourself out. The other thing of it is going back to the to the arms these other stuff, man, we're going off of hope. And hope is not a good business strategy. You need to go off of what you know and stick with what you know and control for long as you possibly can.
Michael:
Love it. And this is an awesome place to put us pause until our next conversation. Until then, where can people find out more about you reach out to you if they have questions or want to reach out to you for your services?
Aaron:
Best Places go to AaronChapman.com If you can't find me there because sometimes there are some some browsers don't like it you have to type in Aaron B chapman.com. Just type in Aaron Chapman a Google if you find a bearded redneck lender you found him.
Michael:
Right on. Right on. Well, hey, thanks a lot, man for hanging out with me and walking us through this really kind of tumultuous time appreciate you. And we'll definitely be chatting again soon.
Aaron:
It was my pleasure brother. And again, thanks for letting me under to poke some holes in in people's heads out there.
Michael:
All right, everyone. That was our episode A big thank you to Aaron for coming on and dropping some really interesting Insights for us on where we're headed in the market. As always, if you enjoyed the episode, feel free to leave us a rating or review and we look forward to seeing the next one. Happy investing
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