Terry Savage, personal finance professional, nationally syndicated columnist and author of best-selling books, including The Savage Truth on Money, joins DoubleLine’s Jeffrey Sherman and Sam Lau on the Sherman Show. In this episode, recorded January 23, 2020, the Sherman Show hosts discuss with Ms. Savage her financial career, then segue into her views on personal finance and her work to educate Americans on managing their financial lives. Among other insights, she explains the need to vet financial advisors (to avoid rip-off artists in the advisory industry), insurance plans for long-term custodial care, the vital role of “chicken money” and how to determine what one needs to retire. While Ms. Savage opposes proposals to forgive student debt, she calls for Washington to “adjust the rate on outstanding student loan balances every six months to be 50 basis points above the 10-year Treasury yield. That would cut a huge amount of the burden off of people who are still repaying.” She warns of the dangers of parents investing in prepaid college tuition plans. Instead, parents should open tax-advantaged 529 plans to save for future education.

Rob Stein, Founder of Astor Investment Management, Discusses Macro and Markets on the Sherman Show

Rob Stein, founder and CEO of Astor Investment Management, joins Sherman Show hosts Jeffrey Sherman and Samuel Lau in an interview recorded January 22, 2020 in Chicago. Mr. Stein began his career at the Federal Reserve under the legendary Paul Volcker before going on to trading and portfolio management positions at money-center Wall Street Banks. In 1994, he founded his registered investment advisory firm.

On the Sherman Show, he discusses his proprietary Astor Economic Index, designed to give a “now-cast” of the U.S. economy and used by the Astor team to set portfolio asset allocations. Rather than relying on economic forecasts, Mr. Stein and his team use contemporaneous reads of jobs, output and other data points, distilled into the Astor index, to weight portfolios toward or away from equities. “You can make portfolio shifts at a time that will still help prevent wealth destruction,” Mr. Stein says. In 2008, he notes, whether one identified recession “in January, February or March, April, May, June, you still were able to protect portfolios.”

Mr. Stein draws parallels between monetary policies at work today and those at the end of 1999. In both cases, the Federal Reserve injected significant liquidity into the system, liquidity that found its way into the stock market. He believes the U.S. will remain “in a low growth environment for a long period of time.” In support of that outlook, Mr. Stein cites the yield on the 30-year Treasury, “changing demographics, efficiencies in the efficiencies [of the economy], companies that are being supported by venture capital money that cannot go on forever.”

The Sherman Show Interviews James Bianco in Chicago

Jim Bianco, a favorite guest of the Sherman Show, returns for another discussion with DoubleLine’s Jeffrey Sherman and Sam Lau. Among other topics, Mr. Bianco, president of Chicago-based Bianco Research, shares his insights into the European Central Bank’s negative-rate dilemma and the Federal Reserve’s balance-sheet dilemma. A return of inflation, Mr. Bianco predicts, could overturn investors and advisors’ addiction to 60-40 stock-bond allocations as well as force the Fed to unwind its balance sheet. Mr. Bianco also discusses the necessary precursor for U.S. Treasury rates to break out of their trading range and head higher. Messrs. Bianco, Sherman and Lau enjoy some laughs over the ghost of Irving Fisher, who showed up, alive and well, at Davos. And Mr. Sherman vents his ire with delusional Ph.D’s at the International Monetary Fund. The podcast was recorded January 22, 2020 in Chicago.

David Rosenberg, widely regarded for his decades of original and insightful research on macroeconomic cycles and financial markets, joins DoubleLine’s Jeffrey Sherman and Samuel Lau in this episode of the Sherman Show. Mr. Rosenberg is founder, chief economist and strategist of Rosenberg Research and Associates, an economic consulting firm providing analysis and insights to help investors make well-informed decisions. Before founding his firm, Mr. Rosenberg was chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff and Associates. From 2002 to 2009, he held those positions at Merrill Lynch in New York where he was consistently ranked in the Institutional Investor All-Star Analyst Rankings. In this episode of the Sherman Show, Mr. Rosenberg first discusses his career path into economics and markets. Then he shares how he combines economics, market research, fundamental analysis and technical analysis to uncover “the data beneath the data.” This podcast was recorded January 6, 2020.

Jeffrey Sherman, Deputy Chief Investment Officer of DoubleLine Capital, and portfolio managers Samuel Lau and Jeffrey Mayberry review the markets in 2019 and share their outlooks for 2020 on The Sherman Show. Among their ideas, Mr. Mayberry suggests U.S. stocks may surprise to the upside, Mr. Sherman advises the 10-year Treasury needs to yield more than the current inflation rate to be considered as a potential buy, and Mr. Lau recommends keeping an eye for trouble for workers and consumers by watching the Employment Cost Index. The podcast was recorded January 8, 2020.

Stephanie Lang, CFA, Principal and Chief Investment Officer at Homrich Berg Wealth Management, joins as guest on the Sherman Show. She discusses her firm’s use of fund of funds, the search for private assets offering a premium over public markets, role of alternatives and private placements in client portfolios, the progression of her career, her role as CIO and the investment process at Homrich Berg. As she explains to DoubleLine’s Jeffrey Sherman and Samuel Lau, a key question at her firm’s investment committee is “are we going into recession and when?” She finds worrisome signs in the Treasury curve and manufacturing, but the consumer, who represents 70% of the U.S. economy, is holding up well as exhibited by such data as retail sales and consumer confidence. A key risk she sees for the consumer is the possibility of an escalation of the U.S.-China trade war, the confrontation already having led to tariffs on trade goods. Outside the economy, Ms. Lang also considers such factors as momentum (“looking pretty good”) and valuations (“average” at present). Another big question facing Lang and the Homrich Berg investment committee is the mix between domestic and international equities. Advantage: domestic equities. The podcast was recorded on September 5, 2019.

Michael Ryan, Chief investment Officer, Americas, at UBS Wealth Management, joins DoubleLine’s Jeffrey Sherman and Samuel Lau on the Sherman Show. Among the topics Mr. Ryan discusses are the three critical functions of his role as CIO (helping to shape to global investment view, managing a 60-member team and communications), the importance (or lack thereof) of the political party in power to market performance, investment versus speculation, how he forms his economic outlook, and the odds of U.S. recession. The discussion was recorded September 13, 2019.

Wayne Wicker, Senior Vice President and Chief Investment Officer for Vantagepoint Investment Advisors and ICMA-RC, is a guest on the Sherman Show. This is a new set of podcasts devoted to chief investment officers. The idea is to delve into the thinking of these heads of the investment process at different advisory and investment firms about how they serve their clients. In this inaugural episode in the CIO series, Mr. Wicker describes his unique career path into investing, which began as a teenager, working after classes at an old-school brokerage firm in the late 1970s. Today he leads Vantagepoint’s Investments Division which is responsible for investment management, due diligence, and contract negotiations of more than 30 investment funds. Mr. Wicker has more than 33 years of investment industry experience with equities, fixed income, and alternative investment portfolios. The discussion with Mr. Wicker and DoubleLine’s Jeffrey Sherman and Samuel Lau was recorded on July 23, 2019.

Dr. Robert Shiller, Sterling Professor of Economics, Yale University, returns to the Sherman Show to discuss his latest research in behavioral finance and his new book, “Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events”. The podcast, hosted by DoubleLine’s Jeffrey Sherman and Samuel Lau, was recorded on October 23, 2019.

Chris Hyzy, managing director and chief investment officer at Bank of America Private Bank and Merrill Wealth Management, joins Jeffrey Sherman and Sam Lau on the Sherman Show. Mr. Hyzy discusses private banking, his team’s investment process, their approach to goals-based asset allocation, the management of risk, and timely market themes. The latter include his cautious outlook for the U.S. consumer, based in part on expectations of job growth and a strengthening housing market. Mr. Hyzy takes issue with those who believe central-bank monetary policy has reached the point of “pushing on a string.” In his view, the world’s central banks still “have many tools to reflate the economy,” not the least being the power of messaging. As for areas of concern, he foresees the U.S.-China trade war, which is actually a technology war, represents a long-term, strategic change, and he doubts a material negotiated deal will emerge soon. A comprehensive trade agreement with China, however, is not necessary for sustained economic growth. Rather, business leaders need clarity on the trade situation in order to manage around it. This episode of the Sherman Show was recorded on September 18, 2019.