The Signal

Can an AI trained to mimic you really predict how you'd respond to a survey? In this episode of The Signal, Prolific's Oriol Bosch sits down with Olivier Toubia (Columbia Business School, co-head of the Digital Twins Lab) and Beca Almeida (Founder, Doppel Market) to unpack what digital twins and synthetic respondents can and can't do in research today.

The conversation covers the defining differences between digital twins, synthetic personas, and silicon samples, how Doppel Market keeps real people in the loop rather than replacing them, where synthetic data genuinely complements traditional surveys versus where it falls short, and methods for deciding whether a question is actually suited to synthetic prediction at all.

Topics covered:

• What digital twins, synthetic personas, and silicon samples actually mean

• Why Doppel Market's approach keeps humans in the loop rather than removing them

• The four ways AI is reshaping research, from question creation to respondent simulation

• A practical heuristic for deciding when synthetic data is (and isn't) appropriate

• Why neither guest believes full replacement of human respondents is realistic

About the speakers:

Oriol Bosch is Head of Polling at Prolific, leading work on what shapes public opinion and how to measure it more effectively.

Olivier Toubia is Professor of Business at Columbia Business School and co-head of the Digital Twins Lab.

Beca Almeida is the founder of Doppel Market, a consumer-insights platform built around digital twins.

References:

"Digital Twins are Funhouse Mirrors: Five Systematic Distortions"

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aeh8260

"Synthetic Data and Digital Twins: The Hype, The Facts, the Promise"

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=7065919

Doppel Market

https://doppelmarket.com/

The Signal is Prolific's podcast on research evidence - not tools, not trends. Real findings from the field, peer-level conversation, no vendor pitch. Subscribe for new episodes monthly.

AI is changing survey research, bringing benefits alongside real risks. In this first episode of The Signal, Prolific's Andrew Gordon sits down with Dr. David Rothschild, co-chair of AAPOR's Task Force on Responsible AI Integration in Survey Research, to unpack what's actually changing in survey research as AI reshapes the field - and what isn't.

David walks through the different roles AI can play across the research process, and where he believes the greatest risks actually lie. The conversation covers whether synthetic respondents can ever truly substitute for real humans, Prolific and David's joint research measuring AI pollution across major online sample providers, and practical guidance for any researcher being pitched a synthetic sample product tomorrow. They also get into disclosure standards, the limits of self-declaration checkboxes, and where David comes down between the optimism versus pessimism about AI's role in research.

Topics covered:

• What AAPOR's new report gets right about AI in research methodology

• AI agent prevalence: measuring contamination across major online sample providers

• Synthetic data's real limits: why it gets broad signals right but falls apart under scrutiny

• AAPOR's disclosure framework: what's required vs. what's 'enhanced' 

• Where AI genuinely helps vs. where it undermines data quality

• Why vendor opacity is the practical risk researchers should actually be watching

  
  

About the speakers:

Dr. Andrew Gordon is Head of Research Sciences at Prolific, driving improvements in data quality, online research methodology, and AI evaluation.

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrew-gordon-03879919a/

X: @andrew_j_gordonBluesky: @andrewgordon.bsky.social

Dr. David Rothschild is an Economist at Microsoft Research and Co-chair of AAPOR's Task Force on Responsible AI Integration in Survey Research.

Website: https://researchdmr.com/

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/davmicrot/

Bluesky: @davmicrot.bsky.social

References:

Responsible AI Integration in Survey Research, AAPOR

https://aapor.org/announcements/task-force-on-responsible-ai-integration-in-survey-research-report/ 

AI Agent Prevalence and Data Quality Across Multiple Online Sample Providers

https://osf.io/preprints/psyarxiv/pvdjr

The Signal is Prolific's podcast on research evidence - not tools, not trends. Real findings from the field, peer-level conversation, no vendor pitch. Subscribe for new episodes monthly.