The SME Stream

Retailers are on a “knife edge” deciding when to pass on increased costs to consumers. 

Retail NZ CEO Carolyn Young told Mike Hosking that retailers had been absorbing the immediate increase in import costs. 

But domestically, 93% of freight was moved on New Zealand roads, with 98% of those trucks using diesel. 

“Businesses can no longer absorb that. We've been talking to retailers this week and they're on the knife edge as to when they pass on those costs that they've been increasing, but it's going to be pretty soon.” 

Retail spending was up 2.9% at the start of March, mainly because of a “frenzy” of fuel buying, she said. 

“Everyone was queued at the fuel stations, at the petrol stations, and that meant that consumers clearly haven't been spending elsewhere as that's consuming up a big significant chunk of their disposable income.” 

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Another bank is predicting an upcoming OCR raise. 

ANZ has already picked three consecutive Official Cash Rate hikes in July, September, and October.

Now Westpac says it's becoming more of a possibility next month - but is more likely in September. 

Chief economist Kelly Eckhold says the Reserve Bank will work from specific indicators. 

"They're looking for indications that the peak in inflation will be even higher than they currently expect."

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Chinese visitors are making a resurgence. 

Latest Stats NZ data shows more than 408 thousand overseas tourists visited in February – an annual increase of more than 53 thousand. 

Chinese visitors topped 61 thousand – the highest monthly figure since early 2018. 

Tourism New Zealand Chief Executive René de Monchy told Mike Hosking Chinese New Year played a part, but there's been an acceleration in general. 

He says Chinese visitors have been growing at over 30% in the past six months. 

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In this bonus clip, economist Brad Olsen unpacks the risk of stagflation, where inflation rises but economic growth stalls and why it’s back on the radar. With oil shocks, global uncertainty, and pressure building across the economy, we explore what could trigger it and how today’s environment compares to the past.

This bite is from our latest episode of Shared Lunch.

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There's growing concern about the impact of the Middle East conflict, and at least one major bank has forecasted increases to the OCR.

ANZ has revised its outlook, with forecasted increases to the OCR bringing rates up to 3 percent by October.

Associate Finance Minister Chris Bishop says skyrocketing fuel prices will have a flow-on effect on the New Zealand economy - and it's likely inflation will spike too.

"That's an unfortunate reality of global events...the forecast will properly come out with the Budget, that's the kind of next major event."

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Herald business commentator, Fran O'Sullivan on who needs what from the Singapore trade deal designed to kick in at crisis time.

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Former Lieutenant General Karen Gibson explains what could come next following failed peace talks with Iran over the weekend.

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Investment strategist, Zoe Wallis with your monday markets update.

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There are two sets of disruption impacting investments and the world economy.Andrew Bascand - Co CEO, Harbour Asset Management.

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Global oil prices have shot up again, with Donald Trump gunning for authority over the Strait of Hormuz.

The President's announced a naval blockade on Iranian ports, after peace talks collapsed in Pakistan yesterday. 

Despite the ceasefire, he's looking at resuming strikes.  

Harbour Asset Management expert Shane Solly explained further.

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