The SME Stream

Economists are divided on whether unemployment is finally starting to fall. 

Stats NZ is releasing its latest employment update at 10.45. 

Economic conditions are improving, but that's also prompting more people to re-join the labour market. 

Most bank economists expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged from three months ago at an historically high 5.3%, but ASB economists think it will fall slightly to 5.2% – the first fall in unemployment in four years. 

Senior Economist Mark Smith told Mike Hosking that hiring is starting to pick up after being on the backburner for so long.  

He says the economy has some underlying momentum, and after waiting on the sidelines last year, firms are going to convert those intentions into actions.  

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Many Kiwis re-fixed their mortgage last year and will be re-fixing their mortgage again this year too. 

Four in five borrowers have re-fixed in the past year – a 13-year high. 

And more than two-thirds of fixed rate loans are due to come up for renewal this year. 

Westpac Chief Economist Kelly Eckhold told Mike Hosking most people have been opting for one-year or 18-month terms, instead of longer periods. 

He says those terms have the best interest rates and would have allowed people to benefit from any further OCR cuts. 

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New Zealand's biggest bank, ANZ, has downgraded its forecast for property prices this year. 

It says its previous forecast of 5% is looking unrealistic as the OCR looks to be making a turn soon and market prices are already falling - now saying a 2% rise is more likely. 

Meanwhile, economists are laying out their predictions for when we'll see the OCR make that turn. 

Many say it won't be until 2027, but some are predicting a rise as soon as the second half of this year. 

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Could the upcoming election mess with our economic recovery? Mark Lister reckons you should focus on "profits over politics" regardless of who wins. We’re joined by Mark, Director at Craigs Investment Partners, and Kiwibank Chief Economist Jarrod Kerr to break down what Kiwi investors can look for in 2026.

Find out how mortgage rates hitting 4% could finally wake up the property market and lure back investors. Jarrod questions whether the risk management departments in banks may have actually intensified our recession, and whether the power of the US dollar is changing. 

Plus, why Mark says the Kiwi share market is traditionally the "high income" choice compared to the US, and how to tell if you’re ready for the volatility of crypto. 

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Rabobank’s senior ag analyst previews the bank’s NZ Agribusiness Outlook 2026 - titled "Keeping one move ahead".

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A view that increased employment will be the key to our economic bounce back.  

Infometrics says there's worrying indicators which show economic momentum is fragile. 

But more signs of improvement are expected by midyear, when labour market conditions should be turning.  

Infometrics’ Principal Economist Brad Olsen told Ryan Bridge that they are expecting the economy to pick up this year, they’re just a bit cautious.  

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The Minister for Trade's attempting to put to bed concerns about our Free Trade Agreement with India, repeatedly voiced by the NZ First leader. 

Winston Peters claims it will let tens of thousands more Indian migrants enter the country.  

The Prime Minister has denied the assertion.  

Todd McClay told Mike Hosking there are no rights around migration in the agreement – instead it allows skilled workers to come to New Zealand for a limit of three years.  

He says trade deals are complicated and complex, but we do very well out of this deal. 

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The economy is still struggling to gain momentum.  

Infometrics says a lot of the indicators suggest that economic recovery is looking unconvincing.

Chief Forecaster Gareth Kiernan says most have taken the possibility of further Official Cash Rate cuts off the table, and some are forecasting a hike.

He told Mike Hosking that things are improving, but the problem for households in particular is that you’ve been told things are going to get better, but you still have all the cost of living pressures.  

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Winston Peters claims our proposed trade agreement with India would let visa holders bring family members with them. 

The Trade Minister denies the FTA could allow 20,000 to 25,000 more immigrant arrivals.

Peters says Todd McClay admitted the loophole himself to a select committee.  

"He had to concede that there were those people who had the right to bring their spouses and their children right away."

In the hearing, McClay said the FTA extends standard visa settings. 

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