The SME Stream

There's a belief we're underestimating how high interest rates will go. 

ANZ has revised its forecast for the next six months, now predicting three hikes to the Official Cash Rate, bringing rates from 2.75% to 3.5%. 

Independent Economics Commentator Tony Alexander told Mike Hosking they'll likely climb even higher, sitting somewhere between 4% and 4.5%.  

He says the Reserve Bank predicts that the economic growth rate will accelerate, the unemployment rate will fall, and as a result, inflation will eventually fall from 4.1% to around 2%, which doesn't really add up. 

Alexander says everyone, including people like him, always underestimate how high interest rates will go during the tightening phase of a monetary policy cycle.  

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There's some defence of the Reserve Bank's pandemic response - after a new report was released.

The independent report into its Covid monetary policy finds it began well, with swift OCR cuts, but was slow to respond when the economy bounced back.

Former Reserve Bank economist Michael Reddell says most private sector forecasts were similar to the RBNZ's incorrect predictions. 

He says that doesn't entirely absolve the bank.

"The difference, of course, is that the private sector forecasters weren't responsible for setting monetary policy - the Reserve Bank MPC was."

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A tax expert believes Labour's changed stance on interest deductibility makes complete sense. 

Labour's confirmed it won't change the current Government's rules allowing landlords to deduct 100% of interest in tax returns.  

It had previously criticised the policy as a tax cut for landlords, but Chris Hipkins believes their proposed Capital Gains Tax will address the issue. 

Deloitte Tax Partner Robin Walker told Ryan Bridge changing the rules would just be deferring when interest deductions get made. 

She says logically what would happen if deductions were denied is revenue from a capital gains tax would go much further down from what's forecast. 

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ANZ joins BNZ picking October's RBNZ meeting will be live, after GDP growth came in higher for the June quarter.

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Fifty-one business leaders have signed an open letter from business think tank the New Zealand Initiative, urging political parties to drop interventionist policies. 

It responds to campaign proposals to structurally reform the grocery sector.  

National and New Zealand First propose splitting Foodstuffs. 

Labour wants grocery brands split into separate retail and wholesale arms, and the Greens want to establish a government owned grocery store. 

Initiative Executive Director Oliver Hartwich told Ryan Bridge it's reminiscent of the Muldoon era - someone who never hesitated intervening in any particular market he didn't like. 

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Over in Australia, the Reserve Bank is set to make their next announcement about the OCR in the coming days - and speculation indicates it will go up again.

Australia's official cash rate is currently at 4.35 percent, but the RBA will be putting it up at least one more time this year, according to one expert.

HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham outlined his predictions further.

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Labour has finally seen the light on interest deductibility.

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The Government's unveiled plans for a new National Events Strategy. 

It follows an independent review that found New Zealand's a strong events host, but lacks a coordinated, long-term approach. 

The industry's backing the move, saying international competition for major events is getting tougher. 

Business Events Industry Aotearoa CEO Lisa Hopkins told Mike Hosking we've missed out on a lot of opportunities because we haven't been as joined up as we should be. 

She says this plan will put us on much better footing against competitors who are already connecting sectors and successfully leveraging major events and business events together. 

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How can HR professionals stay relevant as AI changes the way work gets done?

In this episode of HR Unlocked, Lisa Oakley sits down with Alex Howieson, a senior People & Culture leader with experience across aviation, banking, media, healthcare, consulting, governance, and complex workforce environments.

Alex shares a clear view: HR should not simply be part of the AI conversation. It should be helping lead it.

The conversation explores how AI can reduce administrative burden, improve feedback, support emotional regulation, strengthen analytics, and give HR professionals more time to focus on strategic advisory work. Alex also highlights the risks, including privacy, access to sensitive information, bias, poor governance, and the importance of working closely with technology and legal teams.

Beyond AI, Alex challenges the profession to become more commercially fluent. That means understanding labour costs, cash flow, wage inflation, retention costs, productivity, and the wider business environment rather than relying on traditional HR language alone.

She also explores why HR needs to become more outcome-focused and less process-driven, why customer experience can teach People & Culture teams a lot, and why leaders need to create workplaces built on trust, clarity, humility, and psychological safety.

The conversation closes with a powerful reflection on lived experience, family pressures, leadership vulnerability, and the importance of simple human check-ins.

What You'll Learn

• Why HR should help lead the AI conversation

• How AI can move HR beyond tactical administration

• Why strong advisory capability will become even more important

• How AI can support feedback and development

• The potential role of AI in emotional regulation

• Why clear rules of engagement matter when using AI at work

• The privacy and ethical risks HR professionals need to understand

• Why People & Culture should work closely with technology and legal teams

• How internal access and knowledge management affect AI risk

• Why HR needs to become more commercially fluent

• Which business metrics HR professionals should understand

• How to connect people initiatives to financial outcomes

• Why productivity should be discussed in terms of outcomes, not activity

• The difference between process-focused HR and outcome-focused HR

• Why fit-for-purpose solutions matter more than copying a standard playbook

• How sales and marketing can help HR improve employee experience

• Why purpose matters during periods of significant change

• The role of psychological safety, vulnerability, and humility in leadership

• Why simple check-ins can have a meaningful impact on people

• How consistency and repeatability build trust

Key Takeaways

• HR should be helping shape how AI is used, not simply reacting to it.
• Technology is most valuable when it removes low-value work and creates more space for strategic advisory conversations.
• HR professionals do not need to become coders, but they do need to understand what business problem the technology is solving.
• AI can support feedback by creating a more private and objective environment for reflection.
• Clear governance, privacy, access controls, and education are essential before workplace information is used in AI tools.
• Never assume an approved AI tool is automatically safe for every type of information.
• HR needs to work closely with technology teams to understand where data is stored and who can access it.
• The profession needs to become more comfortable with numbers, including labour cost, cash flow, wage inflation, recruitment cost, and productivity.
• Business leaders care about outcomes more than HR processes.
• Leadership and development initiatives are easier to influence when their value can be connected to commercial outcomes.
• Customer experience and marketing can teach HR how to create more engaging employee experiences.
• The employee value proposition is not about perks. It is about why the work and organisation matter.
• Strong leadership creates clarity around what productivity and success actually look like.
• HR adds value through judgement, not by rigidly applying the same process everywhere.
• Psychological safety does not remove performance expectations. It creates an environment where people can speak honestly about what is happening.
• Trust is built through consistent behaviour over time.

About Alex Howieson

Alex Howieson is a senior People & Culture leader and independent contractor with extensive experience in organisational transformation, culture, complex workforce risk, and leadership.

Her career has spanned aviation, banking, media, healthcare, consulting, governance, large operational workforces, and high-profile sport and integrity environments.

Alex is passionate about the future of HR, commercial capability, AI, organisational efficiency, leadership, and helping People & Culture professionals create genuine value for the organisations they support.

She brings a practical, direct, and business-focused approach to the profession, with a strong emphasis on judgement, accountability, and human connection.

Why This Episode Matters

AI is changing HR quickly, but technology alone will not make the profession more valuable.

This episode challenges People & Culture professionals to think much more broadly about what future relevance looks like.

Alex argues that HR needs to understand the business, speak the language of numbers, simplify rather than complicate, and use technology to remove work that does not require human judgement.

At the same time, the distinctly human parts of leadership become even more important: trust, feedback, humility, connection, psychological safety, and the ability to understand what people need.

Whether you're an HR professional, People & Culture leader, business owner, executive, or manager, this episode offers practical ideas for building a more commercial, technologically capable, and human-centred approach to work.

Resources & Links

• Connect with Alex Howieson on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/alex-howieson/

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