The State of It

Former Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane, a close ally of Andy Burnham, has sounded the alarm over the upcoming budget, warning the Prime Minister can’t “vibe-code his way to growth”.

Patrick joins John Healey on the road, getting a glimpse of the Chancellor’s pro-business pitch — and the bottle of HP Sauce he keeps in his briefcase.

Ben takes us inside the budget, unpacking four key areas: help with business costs, support for households facing rising energy bills, a fuel duty freeze and a package to tackle youth unemployment. Can Healey’s budget deliver meaningful change, or is the big stuff still being kicked down the road?

Ben reflects on his time with Andy Burnham, exploring the mayor’s ambitions, political instincts and frustration with Westminster — and what his first 100 days reveal about his wider national project.

Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times

Ben Riley-Smith, political editor, The Sunday Times

Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The Times

Producers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry Kitson

Executive producer: Molly Guinness

Pictures: Getty Images

This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Andy Burnham's welfare reforms are likely to start with more, not less, spending. In his review into Neets, young people not in education, employment or training, Alan Milburn will propose restricting access to universal credit for 16 to 24-year-olds, and spending money instead on employment support. The prime minister will tell MPs the government needs to spend first, cut later to bring about meaningful welfare reform. That may please Labour MPs but will the bond markets keep the faith?

Meanwhile, the home secretary, Shabana Mahmood, is facing opposition within Labour over plans to double the wait for indefinite leave to remain from five to 10 years. Will Burnham back her reforms, or carve out an exception for migrant care workers?

Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times

Ben Riley-Smith, political editor, The Sunday Times

Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The Times

Producers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry Kitson

Executive producer: Molly Guinness

Pictures: Getty Images

This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this live recording of The State of It, Patrick and Steve assess the state of play ahead of budget day.

John Healey is preparing a steady-as-she-goes budget, but with the big decisions on welfare, defence and tax rises pushed into next year, is Labour ducking the difficult choices?

Meanwhile, AI evangelists want Britain to seize the opportunities, while Ed Miliband is pushing back on environmental grounds. Cue an almighty cabinet row.

Reform UK’s poll lead has narrowed as Restore eats into its support. But is Westminster writing off Nigel Farage too soon? Reform remains the most trusted party on immigration and is sharpening its economic pitch to working-class voters.

Finally, Andy Burnham faces one of Labour’s biggest challenges: reforming the welfare system.

Recorded in Westminster as part of The Battle of Ideas festival.

Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times

Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The Times

Producers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry Kitson

Executive producer: Molly Guinness

Picture: Getty Images

00:00 - "The bond vigilantes are ready to split our throats"

00:09 - Inside Healey’s budget: Bank taxes & disappearing headroom

02:04 - "He’s a dud": Cabinet backbiting over the Chancellor

04:34 - The budget trap: Delaying big tax rises until next year

07:02 - Courting the squeezed middle: Business rates vs Reform UK

08:53 - Shock YouGov polling: Only 3% expect to be better off

11:24 - Is Reform UK finished, or are the pundits wrong?

15:45 - The bizarre reason Number 10 secretly wants a Tory comeback

18:12 - Cabinet AI civil war: Silicon Valley vs British jobs

22:30 - The UK grid crisis: Can we even power AI data centres?

24:51 - The Milburn Review: Plans to ban benefits for under-25s

29:19 - Broken PIP system: Backdated lump sums and 18-year assessment delays

32:15 - Can Labour ever shake the "welfare party" label?

This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Andy Burnham has pulled the lever marked ‘Brexit’, threatening to reignite the wars of yesteryear. The soft left are delighted, but there’s unease in his cabinet. Is this a route back to a referendum, or just a meagre SPS (Sanitary and Phytosanitary) deal? Or is Burnham already firing the opening shots of his election campaign — at the expense of the leave-voting areas he promised to win over? Has he already failed the Makerfield test?

It’s budget season, and speculation is mounting over what’s inside John Healey’s red box. This is billed as a budget for the high street: for the white van man and the beauticians of Rotherham, funded by a crackdown on online retail giants. But with John Lewis sounding the alarm, how far will the chancellor go?

Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times

Ben Riley-Smith, political editor, The Sunday Times

Lara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday Times

Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The Times

Producers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry Kitson

Executive producer: Molly Guinness

Picture: Getty Images

00:00 - The Brexit Wars Return

02:51 - Why Andy Burnham Wants Closer EU Ties

05:25 - Nigel Farage Delighted & Secret Cabinet Rifts

08:04 - The Real Cost: Free Movement & Single Market Traps

10:50 - Is Labour Priming The Polls For An Early Election?

13:46 - Has Burnham Abandoned The 'Makerfield Test'?

17:46 - The Russia Claim: Anatomy Of A 24-Hour U-Turn

20:06 - "Authenticity" Or Chaos? Burnham's Loose Talk

22:25 - The Budget: John Healey Targets 'White Van Man'

26:11 - High Street vs Online Giants: Retailers Strike Back

28:56 - Historic Tax Hikes: Distracting From The Pain

This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Zack Polanski's defeat in the Holborn & St Pancras by-election puts him in a tough position. The Green leader lost the by-election by 3,300 votes to Sagal Abdi-Wali, the Labour candidate. He's also facing criticism after the Green Party voted to declare that Zionism is racism. Polanski did not vote and has been accused of failing to show leadership. How tenable is his position now?

Plus, parliament is back next week and the real business of government gets going. We look at what's in store and how the chancellor, John Healey, is preparing for a very, very difficult budget.

Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times

Lara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday Times

Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The Times

Producer: Harry Kitson

Executive producer: Molly Guinness

Picture: Getty Images

00:00 - By-Election Result: Labour Wins Holborn & St Pancras

00:36 - Is Zack Polanski’s Leadership in Trouble?

01:56 - Green Party Rifts & The Palestine Motion Controversy

07:34 - Is This the Beginning of the End for Polanski?

11:06 - Andy Burnham’s Electoral Boost & Labour’s Position

11:44 - Parliament Returns: Navigating the Autumn Budget

13:18 - John Healey, Treasury Trips, and Bank of England Warnings

16:39 - Defence Spending vs Public Services Dilemma

20:39 - Welfare Reviews, Jackdaw Gas Field & Election Speculation

This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Kemi Badenoch's attack on Reform UK was all about character and her attack on Labour was all about economics. In her speech at the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham, she said she would to scrap inheritance tax on family homes and that under a Conservative government, couples would be able to leave an extra £1m inheritance tax free to their children.

Badenoch was withering about Nigel Farage and Reform UK, saying: "The circus goes on and on and it will never stop because this is who Reform are — so to those who say ‘unite the right’, we are not uniting with that.”

We look at the Conservatives' electoral strategy, their prospects — especially compared with a year ago — and the vibes among their MPs.

Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times

Ben Riley-Smith, political editor, The Sunday Times

Lara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday Times

Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The Times

Producers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry Kitson

Executive producer: Molly Guinness

Picture: Getty Images

00:00 - Live from Tory Conference: Badenoch’s Speech Analysis

00:41 - The Inheritance Tax Gamble: Family Homes Exempt

02:01 - Strategic Shift: Winning Back the South & Abandoning the Red Wall

05:14 - Why Immigration Was Dropped From the Main Message

06:33 - "We Will Not Unite": Direct Rejection of Reform UK & Farage

08:03 - Character vs. Policy: The New Strategy Against Reform

10:45 - Key Omissions: Public Services and the NHS

13:17 - Football Legends, Identity, and Patriotism

17:36 - Vibe Check: A Surprisingly United Tory Party

20:19 - Badenoch’s Dominance: "Captain, Manager, and Owner"

22:13 - Path to Power: Rebuilding Economic Trust

25:08 - Behind the Scenes: Bars, Protesters, and Business Access

29:34 - Did Badenoch’s Speech Set the Political Weather?

32:50 - Looking Ahead to the Budget

This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Labour Party is jubilant. Andy Burnham has fired the starting gun for the next general election with one of the most consequential conference speeches in recent memory. He used it to set out a series of major proposals, including an end to the triple lock, the abolition of first-past-the-post and closer ties with Europe.

At the heart of his national project is a care service free at the point of use. Burnham has set out a vision that promises to put Britain on a different road. But can he persuade the country to buy into it?

Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times

Ben Riley-Smith, political editor, The Sunday Times

Producers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry Kitson

Executive producer: Molly Guinness

Pictures: Getty Images

This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

At the Labour Party conference in Liverpool, the mood is jubilant. They have a popular leader who can speak fluently in public. Andy Burnham's speech on Tuesday will be a big moment and it's expected to be full of announcements. Whitehall and cabinet ministers are trying to keep up.

The problem, as always, is making the sums add up. The prime minister has made social care the main topic of conversation. We discuss whether he is ready to ditch the triple-lock on pensions to pay for social care reform and whether he could fight an election promising tax rises.

In Rachel Reeves's first budget, taxes went up more than £30 billion, and then she had to come back for more. The Treasury wanted to avoid a third tax-raising budget but the numbers are moving against them.

Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times

Ben Riley-Smith, political editor, The Sunday Times

Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The Times

Producers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry Kitson

Executive producer: Molly Guinness

Pictures: Getty Images

This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

John Healey, the chancellor, tells us his budget will offer people breathing space on both the cost of living and the cost of business. He said he was concerned about the rising price of fuel and that he wanted wealthy people to stay in Britain. In July, Andy Burnham, the prime minister, said that he would use "any flexibility" in the government's fiscal rules, but Healey was clear that there was no room for manoeuvre on the fiscal rules. Listen to the full interview to hear how he's getting notes in caps lock from Gordon Brown, his thoughts on bringing down the welfare bill and a Treasury Dragon's Den.

Ben Riley-Smith, political editor, The Sunday Times

Producer: Euan Dawtrey

Picture: Getty Images

This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Labour Party conference starts in Liverpool this weekend. It's a chance for Andy Burnham to lay out his vision for the country. Expect worldview, class, solidarity and hope. How much criticism is likely to come from allies of Keir Starmer? Darren Jones, Starmer's former right-hand-man, has been giving interviews. Will others do the same?

Could Burnham call a snap election?

An MRP mega poll for The Times and Sky News suggested that if an election were held now Labour would win 241 seats, the Conservatives would have 130 and Reform UK would be in third on 123 seats. The split on the right makes it tempting for Labour to call a snap election. Is that a realistic possibility?

Ben Riley-Smith, political editor, The Sunday Times

Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The Times

Producers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry Kitson

Executive producer: Molly Guinness

Picture: Getty Images

00:00 - Tactical Voting: The Left’s New “Cheat Code”?

00:10 - Heading to Liverpool: Navigating Labour Conference

01:26 - Decoding Andy Burnham’s “Hope Again” Vision & Liverpool Roots

04:07 - Inside Number 10: How the New Team is Bedding In

06:56 - The Reform UK Threat & Marginal Seat Panic

09:12 - The Dangers of Relying on Tactical Voting

14:10 - Snap Election Rumours: Is Burnham About to Gamble?

18:55 - Labour Infighting: Sacked Cabinet Ministers Strike Back

23:07 - Critiques From Within & What Success Looks Like

26:07 - John Healey Interview Preview

This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.