The Swyx Mixtape

Listen to the Lex Fridman podcast (25mins in): https://lexfridman.com/elon-musk-3/

How I Approach First Principles Thinking via Logic and Epistemology

Transcript

So what's your source of belief in situations like this when the engineering problem is so difficult, there's a lot of experts, many of whom you admire, who have failed in the past. Yes. And a lot of people, you know, a lot of experts, maybe journalists, all the kinds of, you know, the public in general have a lot of doubt about whether it's possible and you yourself know that even if it's a, non-normal set, not empty set of success, it's still unlikely or very difficult. Like where do you go to both personally, intellectually as an engineer, as a team, like for source of strength needed to sort of persevere through this and to keep going with the project, take it to completion. 

2 

00:24:49

I suppose the strength. Hmm. I just really not how I think about things. I mean, for me, it's simply this, this is something that is important to get done, and we, we should just keep doing it or die trying, and I, I don't need, I source of strength. So 

0 

00:25:07

Quitting is not even like, I'm 

2 

00:25:10

Just not, it's not in my nature. Okay. And I, I don't care about optimism or pessimism, fuck that. We're going to get it done. Gotta to get it done. 

0 

00:25:23

Can you then zoom back in to specific problems with Starship or any engineering problems you work on? Can you try to introspect your particular biologic when you're in that network, your thinking process, and describe how you think through problems, the different engineering and design problems. Is there like a systematic process you've spoken about first principles thinking kind of, 

2 

00:25:45

Well, you know, like saying like, like physics is low and everything else was a recommendation. I'm like, I've met a lot of people that can break the law, but I, I have never met anyone who could break physics. So, so first for any kind of technology problem, you have to sort of just make sure you're not violating physics. And, you know, first principles analysis, I think, is something that can be applied to really any walk of life, any anything really? It's just, it's, it's really just saying, you know, let's, let's boil something down to the most fundamental principles. 

2 

00:26:29

The things that we are most confident are true at a foundational level, and that sits your at your sets, your axiomatic base, and then you reason up from there. And then you cross check your conclusion against the, the axiomatic truth. So, you know, some basics in physics would be like, oh, you Vida and conservation of energy or momentum or something like that, you know, then you're slugging to work. So that's yeah. So that's just to establish it. Is it, is it, is it possible? And then another good physics tool is thinking about things in the limit. If you, if you take a particular thing and you scale it to a very large number or to very small number, how does, how does things change 

0 

00:27:17

Like temporary, like in number of things, you manufacturer, something like that. And then in time, 

2 

00:27:23

Yeah. Like, let's say, take example of like, like manufacturing, which I think is just a very underrated problem. And, and like I said, it's, it's much harder to take a, an advanced technology product and bring it into volume manufacturing than it is to design it in the first place. My more's magnitude. So, so let's say, you're trying to figure out is like, why is this, this part or product expensive? Is it because of something fundamentally foolish that we're doing? Or is it because our volume is too low? And so then you say, okay, well, what if our volume was a million units a year? 

2 

00:28:05

Is it still expensive? That's what I'm invaluable thinking about things to the limit. If it's too expensive at a million units a year, then volume is not the reason why your thing is expensive. There's something fundamental about design. 

0 

00:28:16

And then you then can focus on the reducing complexity or something like that. 

2 

00:28:19

We could change the design to change the chains apart to be something that is not fundamentally expensive, but like, that's a common thing in rocketry. Cause the, the unit volume is relatively low. And so a common excuse would be well, it's expensive because our unit volume is low. And if we were in like automotive or something like that, or consumer electronics, then our costs would be lower on like unlike. Okay. So let's say now you're making a million units a year. Is it still expensive? The answer is yes. Then economies of scale are not the issue. 

0 

00:28:53

Do you throw into manufacturing? Do you throw like supply chain, you talked about resources and materials and stuff like that. Do you throw that into the calculation of trying to reason from first principles? Like how are we going to make the supply chain work here? Yeah, yeah. And then the cost of materials, things like that, or is that too? 

2 

00:29:10

Exactly. So like another, like a good example, I, of thinking about things in the limit is if you take any, you know, any, any product, a machine or whatever, like take a rocket or whatever, and say, if you've got, if you look at the raw raw materials in the rocket, so you're going to have like an aluminum steel titanium in canal, especially specialty alloys, copper. And you say, what are the, what's the weight of the constituent elements of each of these elements and what is their own material value? 

2 

00:29:54

And that sets the asymptotic limit for how low the cost of the vehicle can be, unless you change the materials. So, and then when you do that, call it like maybe the magic one number or something like that. So that would be like, if you had the, you know, like just a pile of these raw materials here, and you could wave a magic wand and rearrange the atoms into the final shape, that would be the lowest possible cost that you could make this thing for, unless you change the materials. So then, and that is always, almost always a very low number. So then the what's actually causing these to be expensive is how you put the atoms into the desired shape. 

0 

00:30:37

Yeah. Actually, if you don't mind me taking a tiny tangent, had a, I often talked to Jim Keller, who's somebody that work with use. 

2 

00:30:45

Yeah. Jim was a great work at Tesla. 

0 

00:30:49

So I suppose he carries the flame of the same kind of thinking that you're, you're talking about now. And I, I guess I see the same thing at Tesla and, and space X folks who work there, they kind of learn this way of thinking and it kinda becomes obvious almost. But anyway, I had argument, not argument. He educated me about how cheap it might be to manufacture a Tesla bought. We just, we had an argument. What is, how can you reduce the cost of s...

Listen to Akimbo: https://www.listennotes.com/podcasts/akimbo-a-podcast/the-magnification-of-small-EVg8tLQnljC/

Listen: https://nav.al/failure

HN Discussion also worthwhile: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29488641

Listen to Backstage Pass: https://www.pushkin.fm/episode/john-legend/

Listen to the Lex Fridman podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X0-SXS6zdEQ

- Read about Software 2.0

• Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2GhBig0OWM (16 mins in)
• Jess Frazelle: Why Open Source Firmware is Important

Listen to the Sourcegraph podcast: https://about.sourcegraph.com/podcast/sugu-sougoumarane/

• https://twitter.com/ssougou
• https://www.linkedin.com/in/sugu-sougoumarane-b9bb25/
• Consensus Algorithms at Scale

Transcript

Beyang Liu:

Yeah, tell us that story. What happened between you and Elon Musk?

Sugu Sougoumarane:

So, this was 2000. Elon had just founded X.com. He had sold off Zip2, which was his previous company, and he was considered one of those up and coming entrepreneurs. He wasn’t as popular as he is today. But when I read X.com, if you read the description then, it said that it was an online bank. So, basically, there’s Wells Fargo, there’s Bank of America, and now there’s X.com, which is an internet-first bank.

That’s what it looked like. I said, “Wow. If it’s a bank, I better be formal.” So, I wore a tie and suit.

Beyang Liu:

Oh no. And I’m assuming the dress code was a lot less formal.

Sugu Sougoumarane:

That turned him off instantly. So, I’m sitting there, he walks in and says, “Who the hell are you?” “I’m here for the interview.” “Oi, why are you wearing a suit?”

Beyang Liu:

That’s hilarious.

Sugu Sougoumarane:

So it turned out that this was 2000, where the boom was happening–‘99, 2000. And there were so many “me too” companies. “I’m going to change the world” kind of companies.

Beyang Liu:

Sure. A lot of copycats.

Sugu Sougoumarane:

And I had been interviewing with a bunch of them. And none of them had a real story. A lot of them didn’t even have code written, but they had raised money from VCs because that’s how desperate VCs were to give you money. Anybody that said “I have an idea” got money.

Beyang Liu:

It was the height of the bubble.

Sugu Sougoumarane:

Yeah, it was the height of the bubble. I was completely disillusioned saying that, “My God, this is a disaster. There is not a single company that has anything viable.” So I show up there and I’m kind of low energy because I don’t expect anything from this interview. All previous interviews were disasters and I had just walked out. And this one, I was like, “Oh, okay. Let’s hear it out. Let’s see what you got.” And so that came across to Elon as a guy who has no energy. And he was kind of disappointed. And I was wearing a suit. That’s even worse.

Beyang Liu:

Two strikes.

Sugu Sougoumarane:

Two strikes. And as I’m hearing his story, by the time the interview ended, I was so excited by what he was building. I just couldn’t believe it. I said, “Oh my God, this will change the world.” That’s basically how I ended up leaving. But that’s not how he ended up seeing me. I went through a recruiter. And the recruiter says, “Hey, they’re going to pass on you. They’re not interested. They think you have low energy.” I said, “What? Give me Elon’s email now. I’ll send him an email.”

So I sent him an email. Essentially, paraphrasing what I did, I basically sold him back his own company. I told him why this is going to be huge. And it turns out that, apparently, he was struggling to convince the greatness of his company to his own employees. And so he saw that and he was impressed that I was able to see what he saw. He even sent that email to everyone and told them, “See, there’s a guy outside who believes in what we are doing.” And so he called me back for an interview.

And now, looking back, I can see everybody was smiling. Everybody was passing me by, giving me second looks, and smiling.

Beyang Liu:

You were the guy.

Sugu Sougoumarane:

Yeah, I was that guy.

Beyang Liu:

That’s awesome.

Sugu Sougoumarane:

The rest is history. Then I joined X.com. And then soon after that, X.com and PayPal merged, and that’s how I ended up at PayPal.

Beyang Liu:

Do you remember what it is you said in that email? Because I’m sure everyone who’s listening, who’s ever bombed an interview, is like, “What do you say? What do you say in an email that gets you that second chance with Elon Musk of all people?”

Sugu Sougoumarane:

I think actually I relate to what I said even now, because what I said was, “The most important thing is that I am sold on this vision and I will do anything to be part of it. I don’t care what you offer me. This vision is awesome. This is going to change the world. So I want to be part of this. I don’t care. My low energy is situational. Don’t read into that.” I need to dig up that email. I don’t think I was as eloquent as I am now.

Beyang Liu:

If you dig it up, we’ll link to it in the show notes.

Sugu Sougoumarane:

Yeah, I’ll find out. I’ll see if I can find it. This is literally 21 years ago.

Beyang Liu:

I was just trying to think of email systems back then.

Sugu Sougoumarane:

Yeah, exactly.

Beyang Liu:

But do you even remember what email you used in those days?

Sugu Sougoumarane:

I think it was Yahoo.

Beyang Liu:

Oh, Yahoo. Okay.

Sugu Sougoumarane:

So it may still be there. I should go look for it.

Beyang Liu:

Yeah, fascinating.

Sugu Sougoumarane:

He may not remember me, but I think if I reminded him of the story, he would remember me if I ever met him again. If I told him this.

Beyang Liu:

Yeah, it seems pretty memorable. I mean, a guy comes in and sells your company back to you so well–probably better than he could describe it. He shared it with the entire company. That’s awesome.

---

part 2
---

Beyang Liu:

Tell me about the key selling points of PlanetScale. So the front page says serverless database platform. What does that mean?

Sugu Sougoumarane:

So here is what is changing in the industry. Vitess was in some respects, the first step towards what PlanetScale became. At YouTube, we literally ran tens of thousands of nodes. That’s how big the Vitess deployment was at YouTube.

Beyang Liu:

Wow.

Sugu Sougoumarane:

And there is no DBA team that can manage anything of that size.

Beyang Liu:

It’s just too many no...

Listen to Software Dev Journey: https://www.listennotes.com/podcasts/software/152-shawn-wang-from-the-fine-px_1sYDV9yT/

Listen to Conversations With Paul Simon: https://www.audacy.com/podcasts/revisionist-history-21817/revisionist-history-presents-miracle-and-wonder-conversations-with-paul-simon-947753006 20 mins in

Listen to the Huberman Lab: https://hubermanlab.com/dr-lex-fridman-machines-creativity-and-love/ (2h 43mins in)