The Take on Commercial Real Estate

The Commercial Association of REALTORS® Wisconsin (CARW) hosted an in-depth economic and commercial real estate (CRE) outlook focused on both national trends and their implications for Wisconsin. The featured economist Thomas LaSalvia from Moody’s delivered a data-rich presentation that moved from macroeconomic forces down to property-level dynamics, with a special emphasis on the Milwaukee and broader Wisconsin markets.

National Economic Backdrop

The presentation outlined a U.S. economy characterized by labor market stagnation alongside strong wealth appreciation:

• Consumer sentiment is trending downward due to policy uncertainty, tariffs, and inflation pressures.
• Businesses are increasingly focused on cost cutting and adoption of artificial intelligence (AI), contributing to slower job growth.
• A significant share of recent wealth gains is concentrated in the top 10% of income earners, raising concerns about economic fragility if equity markets falter.

Despite these headwinds, the baseline Moody’s forecast calls for continued GDP growth through 2026, supported by productivity gains, AI-driven efficiencies, and fiscal stimulus, albeit without robust job creation.

Wisconsin’s Competitive Position

In contrast to some national challenges, Wisconsin is positioned to outperform in the near to mid-term:

• The state has recorded three consecutive years of positive net domestic migration, a notable shift after decades of outflows.
• Net international migration remains a crucial driver of population and labor supply, though subject to policy risk.
• Wisconsin’s economy has diversified significantly since 1990, now balancing employment across manufacturing, trade/transportation/utilities, education and health, and office-using sectors.
• Major metros, including Madison and Milwaukee, are seeing renewed population and employment momentum.

This diversification and quality of life advantage are expected to help Wisconsin weather national macroeconomic turbulence better than many peer states.

CRE Sector Insights

Nationally and within Wisconsin, CRE fundamentals are showing resilience:

• Apartments: Solid demand and tight conditions in many markets are supporting above-average rent growth.
• Industrial / Warehouse: After a wave of speculative supply in select U.S. markets, new deliveries are slowing, setting the stage for vacancy stabilization and renewed growth, especially in inland and cost-effective locations.
• Office: The sector is past the “apocalypse” narrative, entering a gradual recovery phase with demand returning, though performance will be highly flight-to-quality and location selective.
• Retail: Contrary to past “retail apocalypse” fears, better-located and experience-oriented retail centers are holding steady or improving.

A key theme was that decelerating new supply across most property types, paired with generally stable or improving demand, should support falling vacancy rates and stronger rent growth from 2026 onward.

Takeaways for Wisconsin CRE Professionals

For CARW members, the message was optimistic:

• Macro risks—AI-driven labor disruption, deglobalization, and cost pressures—are real and ongoing.
• Wisconsin’s fundamentals—population trends, economic diversification, and relative affordability—position the state favorably within this challenging backdrop.
• CRE opportunities will increasingly depend on granular, property-level analysis, with an emphasis on quality locations, adaptable buildings, and mixed-use environments.

The session underscored that, while the national economy faces meaningful headwinds, Wisconsin’s commercial real estate market is poised to remain comparatively strong, creating strategic opportunities for investors, owners, and occupiers across the state.

Experience the full 2025 CARW & NAIOP Wisconsin Market Update presentations in one episode - as if you were in the room! This recording features the complete market presentations—covering investment, office, retail, and industrial trends across Wisconsin.

Hear directly from:

• Heather Dorfler, Cushman & Wakefield | BOERKE – Investment Market Update
• Matt Hunter, Hunter Real Estate – Office Market Update
• Fred Stalle, Mid America Real Estate - Retail Market Update
• Kyle Fink, CCIM, SIOR, Colliers International – Industrial Market Update

This is the unedited content from the mainstage presentations, giving you all the data, stories, and 2026 predictions straight from the experts—perfect for CRE professionals who want the full depth of the program in audio form.

On this episode, we talk with Travis Tiede, the new Chair of the Commercial Association of REALTORS® Wisconsin. From his start as a UW–Milwaukee marketing grad to leading one of the state’s top CRE networks, Travis shares how relationships, trust, and collaboration drive success in this business.

He reflects on a career-defining deal in Mayville, gives his take on Wisconsin’s red-hot industrial market, and offers advice for rising brokers. Plus, hear his vision for CARW — expanding its reach statewide and strengthening what the logo stands for: professionalism, connection, and commitment.

On this episode of The Take on Commercial Real Estate, we’re talking about a project that’s redefining what redevelopment can mean for a community. The Kenosha Innovation Neighborhood is more than just new buildings—it’s about rebuilding trust, creating opportunity, and shaping spaces that tell a new story for an entire city.

Our guest, Kelly Armstrong, President of the Kenosha Innovation Neighborhood, shares how this bold vision came to life, the lessons learned along the way, and why “innovation” isn’t just a buzzword—it’s the foundation for lasting change.

We’ll dig into what it takes to bring stakeholders together, keep momentum through long timelines, and challenge the typical redevelopment playbook. Whether you’re in commercial real estate, community development, or just curious about how places transform, this is a conversation you won’t want to miss.

Live from the Wisconsin Retail Conference

Episode Title: Is Retail Real Estate Just About Retail: Keynote with Garrick Brown

Guest Speaker: Garrick Brown, Vice President of Real Estate Intelligence & Business Development, Gallelli Real Estate

Episode Overview:
In this special edition of the CARW Podcast, we bring you the full keynote presentation from the 2025 Wisconsin Retail Conference in Milwaukee. Our featured speaker is Garrick Brown, one of the nation’s leading voices in retail real estate, with more than 25 years of experience analyzing market trends and consumer behavior.

Key Topics Covered:

• Economic headwinds and retail resilience
• Growing and shrinking retail sectors
• Bankruptcy trends and what’s on the horizon
• The evolving definition of "retail real estate"
• Why restaurants, healthcare, and services are redefining the space
• The American consumer’s continued impact on retail

Quote to Remember:
"Never underestimate the American consumer." — Garrick Brown

About the Speaker:
Garrick Brown is Vice President of Real Estate Intelligence & Business Development at Gallelli Real Estate. His insights have been featured in The Wall Street Journal, CNBC, NPR, and other major media outlets.

Downtown Milwaukee has experienced significant growth in recent years, with Business Improvement District (BID) 21 playing a pivotal role in its development. As of 2024, the district is home to approximately 42,000 residents, reflecting a 26.5% increase since 2010, according the City of Milwaukee website.. The area also accommodates over 90,700 workers and attracts more than six million annual visitors, underscoring its status as a vibrant urban center. ​city.milwaukee.gov

In this episode, we sit down with Matt Dorner, who has been with BID 21 since 2014 and is slated to become the organization's CEO in June 2025. With a background in urban planning and economic development, including previous work with the Village of Menomonee Falls, Matt has been instrumental in driving initiatives that enhance Milwaukee's downtown district.​

Join us as Matt discusses the purpose of a BID, how BID 21 is unique to others across the country, and how BID 21 leverages public-private partnerships to foster economic growth, enhance public spaces, and solidify downtown Milwaukee's status as a premier destination for business, culture, and community life as well as a resource that benefits the entire State of Wisconsin. 

In this episode, we speak with Andy Hunt, Director of the Vieth Institute for Real Estate Leadership at Marquette University. He shares many insights including his perspective on the following:

• How the ACRE Program is driving meaningful commercial real estate development in Wisconsin;
• What’s motivating today’s students and how education is evolving to meet market demands;
• Best practices from real estate programs across the country—and how they’re being implemented in Wisconsin;
• The power of collaboration and partnership in shaping the industry’s future.

Whether you're a seasoned professional or just beginning your journey in commercial real estate, this conversation is packed with valuable insights on talent, trends, and the future of the industry—plus ways you can be part of its continued success.

KC Conway is the Founder and Principal Owner for KCNomics.  He is a nationally recognized economist and appraiser with a nearly 40-year career including positions in commercial banks, government service, and academia. Among his more notable career achievements are (i) his role as the commercial real estate subject matter expert providing counsel to the Federal Reserve during the Great Recession of 2007-2010; (ii) serving as the Chief Economist for the CCIM Institute from 2017-2023; and (iii) acting as an instructor for real estate trends at the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council continuously from 2006. In addition, he presently serves as a director of a publicly traded REIT and testifies as an expert witness on valuation and tax appeals in various state and U.S. courts.  KC spoke to the members of the Commercial Association of REALTORS Wisconsin on January 30th at the Trade Hotel in Milwaukee. He covered everything from tariffs to taxes; retail to multi-family; demographics, ports, Buck-ees and so much more.  Join us for this fast-moving overview on what's in store for 2025 for Wisconsin and US Commercial Real Estate Markets.

Get to know Jenna Maguire, Chair of CARW for 2024/25. A seasoned leader in commercial real estate since 2008, Jenna has navigated the evolving office market, leasing some of Milwaukee’s most notable projects like Schlitz Park and The Avenue. She is a Senior Vice President with Colliers International in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Recognized as a CoStar Power Broker and a Milwaukee Business Journal Forty Under 40 honoree, Jenna brings unmatched expertise and dedication. In this episode, we discuss the state of the industry, CARW’s role as a resource, leadership, and the next generation of talent.