This week’s podcast has my predictions for 2026.

You can listen to this podcast here, which has the slides and graphics mentioned. Also available at iTunes and Google Podcasts.

Here is the link to the TechMoat Consulting.

Here is the link to our Tech Tours.

My predictions are:

1) It Will be Another Big Year For Google Gemini

2) GenAI Data Architecture in Enterprises Will Be the Critical Capability

3) AI Service Business Models vs. Platform Business Models Is the Big Question.

4) AI Agents and Agent Operating Basics Are the Other Critical Capability for Businesses

5) Agentic Ecommerce Will Be a Major Disruption

6) AI Cloud Businesses Will Continue to Lead

7) China Will Shock the World with Robotics and Physical AI 

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I am a consultant and keynote speaker on how to supercharge digital growth and build digital moats.

I am a partner at TechMoat Consulting, a consulting firm specialized in how to increase growth with improved customer experiences (CX), personalization and other types of customer value. Get in touch here.

I am also author of the Moats and Marathons book series, a framework for building and measuring competitive advantages in digital businesses.

This content (articles, podcasts, website info) is not investment, legal or tax advice. The information and opinions from me and any guests may be incorrect. The numbers and information may be wrong. The views expressed may no longer be relevant or accurate. This is not investment advice. Investing is risky. Do your own research.

Support the show

This week’s podcast is about the likely impact of agents on ecommerce. And specifically on tourism.

You can listen to this podcast here, which has the slides and graphics mentioned. Also available at iTunes and Google Podcasts.

Here is the link to the TechMoat Consulting.

Here is the link to our Tech Tours.

Here is the mentioned McKinsey report.

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I am a consultant and keynote speaker on how to accelerate growth with improving customer experiences (CX) and digital moats.

I am a partner at TechMoat Consulting, a consulting firm specialized in how to increase growth with improved customer experiences (CX), personalization and other types of customer value. Get in touch here.

I am also author of the Moats and Marathons book series, a framework for building and measuring competitive advantages in digital businesses.

This content (articles, podcasts, website info) is not investment, legal or tax advice. The information and opinions from me and any guests may be incorrect. The numbers and information may be wrong. The views expressed may no longer be relevant or accurate. This is not investment advice. Investing is risky. Do your own research.

Support the show

This week’s podcast is a summary of our visit to the Huawei AI Cloud exhibition in Shenzhen.

You can listen to this podcast here, which has the slides and graphics mentioned. Also available at iTunes and Google Podcasts.

Here is the link to the TechMoat Consulting.

Here is the link to our Tech Tours.

Here are the mentioned articles about AI Infrastructure.

• Understanding AI Infrastructure Part 1: AI Data Centers (Tech Strategy)
• Understanding AI Infrastructure Part 2: AI Compute is Different (Tech Strategy)
• Understanding AI Infrastructure Part 3: GenAI Operating Costs (Tech Strategy)
• Understanding AI Infrastructure Part 4: The Cost of Correctness (Tech Strategy)

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I am a consultant and keynote speaker on how to accelerate growth with improving customer experiences (CX) and digital moats.

I am a partner at TechMoat Consulting, a consulting firm specialized in how to increase growth with improved customer experiences (CX), personalization and other types of customer value. Get in touch here.

I am also author of the Moats and Marathons book series, a framework for building and measuring competitive advantages in digital businesses.

This content (articles, podcasts, website info) is not investment, legal or tax advice. The information and opinions from me and any guests may be incorrect. The numbers and information may be wrong. The views expressed may no longer be relevant or accurate. This is not investment advice. Investing is risky. Do your own research.

Support the show

This week’s podcast is about estimating the costs of providing GenAI products and services. And this is changing.

You can listen to this podcast here, which has the slides and graphics mentioned. Also available at iTunes and Google Podcasts.

Here is the link to the TechMoat Consulting.

Here is the link to our Tech Tours.

My approach to assessing GenAI operating costs is the below checklist.

1. What is the cost of compute, including energy and cooling? Initial cost vs. ongoing?
   1. The core compute is going to drive a lot of the costs. Especially if you are using an AI cloud service provider. If you have a downloaded open-source model, then it’s mostly the initial cost.
   2. These compute costs dependent on the requirements of the AI workloads:
      1. The compute requirements
      2. The timing requirements
      3. The memory requirements
2. What is the cost of creating and maintaining the desired correctness over time?
   1. How accurate and correct you need the foundation model to be is a big deal. And this factor determines how much of the operations are done by software versus humans. It can make the costs of GenAI products look a lot more like services than traditional software.
   2. My main questions are:
      1. How much does correctness matter? What level of correctness does the product need to compete? What is the cost of inaccuracy?
      2. How does correctness change over time? Is it stable and flat lining, advancing, naturally changing or deteriorating?
      3. How much of a long tail is there in the domain? Is the long tail a liability or a benefit?
      4. How much of the process is iterative? How much are humans in the loop?
      5. What is the initial cost of training and getting to the desired level of correctness?
      6. What is the ongoing cost of inference at the desired level of correctness? How much are humans in the loop?
      7. What is the cost and frequency of fine tuning and/or retraining?
3. What are the cost implications of increasing scale?
   1. What are the scale advantages vs. disadvantages?
   2. Does the Jevon paradox apply?

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I am a consultant and keynote speaker on how to accelerate growth with improving customer experiences (CX) and digital moats.

I am a partner at TechMoat Consulting, a consulting firm specialized in how to increase growth with improved customer experiences (CX), personalization and other types of customer value. Get in touch here.

I am also author of the Moats and Marathons book series, a framework for building and measuring competitive advantages in digital businesses.

This content (articles, podcasts, website info) is not investment, legal or tax advice. The information and opinions from me and any guests may be incorrect. The numbers and information may be wrong. The views expressed may no longer be relevant or accurate. This is not investment advice. Investing is risky. Do your own research.

Support the show

This week’s podcast is about my trip to Xiaomi, Unitree and iQIYI.

You can listen to this podcast here, which has the slides and graphics mentioned. Also available at iTunes and Google Podcasts.

Here is the link to the TechMoat Consulting.

Here is the link to our Tech Tours.

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I am a consultant and keynote speaker on how to accelerate growth with improving customer experiences (CX) and digital moats.

I am a partner at TechMoat Consulting, a consulting firm specialized in how to increase growth with improved customer experiences (CX), personalization and other types of customer value. Get in touch here.

I am also author of the Moats and Marathons book series, a framework for building and measuring competitive advantages in digital businesses.

This content (articles, podcasts, website info) is not investment, legal or tax advice. The information and opinions from me and any guests may be incorrect. The numbers and information may be wrong. The views expressed may no longer be relevant or accurate. This is not investment advice. Investing is risky. Do your own research.

Support the show

This week’s podcast is about AI Agents transforming ecommerce. Likely all commerce.

You can listen to this podcast here, which has the slides and graphics mentioned. Also available at iTunes and Google Podcasts.

Here is the link to the TechMoat Consulting.

Here is the link to our Tech Tours.

Here is the McKinsey article I mentioned:

• The agentic commerce opportunity: How AI agents are ushering in a new era for consumers and merchants

Here is the BCG article I mentioned:

• When Brands Meet AI Bots: Customer Experience in the Era of Agents

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 I am a consultant and keynote speaker on how to accelerate growth with improving customer experiences (CX) and digital moats.

I am a partner at TechMoat Consulting, a consulting firm specialized in how to increase growth with improved customer experiences (CX), personalization and other types of customer value. Get in touch here.

I am also author of the Moats and Marathons book series, a framework for building and measuring competitive advantages in digital businesses.

Note: This content (articles, podcasts, website info) is not investment advice. The information and opinions from me and any guests may be incorrect. The numbers and information may be wrong. The views expressed may no longer be relevant or accurate. Investing is risky. Do your own research.

Support the show

This week’s podcast is about why bundling (and cross-selling and upselling) are so powerful in digital. Plus, some thoughts on why data moats are mostly not real.

You can listen to this podcast here, which has the slides and graphics mentioned. Also available at iTunes and Google Podcasts.

Here is the link to the TechMoat Consulting.

Here is the link to our Tech Tours.

Here is the article on bundling by Chris Dixon.

• How bundling benefits sellers and buyers

A lot of thinking on data as a moat comes from these articles by Martin Casado, Julian Wright and Andre Hagiu.

• The Empty Promise of Data Moats
• When Data Creates Competitive Advantage

Here are 7 complications I mentioned about bundling.

1. Bundling requires a a robust product suite.
2. You want a low attach rate. So you don't cannibalize products by bundling.
3. Bundling can complicate the customer experience and buying journey.
4. Bundling works best when all customers have similar total willingness to pay. But different tastes.
5. Unlimited bundles (subscriptions) can have problems if there are non-zero product costs.
6. Unlimited bundles (subscriptions) do limit revenue per user. This is a problem when willingness to pay is positively correlated with demand for variety.
7. Subscription models do not reward superstar creators very well.

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I am a consultant and keynote speaker on how to accelerate growth with improving customer experiences (CX) and digital moats.

I am a partner at TechMoat Consulting, a consulting firm specialized in how to increase growth with improved customer experiences (CX), personalization and other types of customer value. Get in touch here.

I am also author of the Moats and Marathons book series, a framework for building and measuring competitive advantages in digital businesses.

This content (articles, podcasts, website info) is not investment, legal or tax advice. The information and opinions from me and any guests may be incorrect. The numbers and information may be wrong. The views expressed may no longer be relevant or accurate. This is not investment advice. Investing is risky. Do your own research.

Support the show

This week’s podcast is about habit formation. And Gmail is a good example of a moderate version of this that can be copied.

You can listen to this podcast here, which has the slides and graphics mentioned. Also available at iTunes and Google Podcasts.

Here is the link to the TechMoat Consulting.

Here is the link to our Tech Tours.

Here are the 4 psych hacks:

1. Gmail is Habit Forming via a High Frequency Utility Over a Long Time
2. Gmail is Internally Triggering. That’s the Gold Standard.
3. Gmail Has Task Completion Rewards. Ok But Not as Good as Variable Rewards.
4. Gmail has Infinite Variability. But This Is More Powerful in Entertainment than a Utility.

A lot of this is from the book Hooked: How to Build Habit Forming Products, by Nir Eyal.

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I am a consultant and keynote speaker on how to accelerate growth with improving customer experiences (CX) and digital moats.

I am a partner at TechMoat Consulting, a consulting firm specialized in how to increase growth with improved customer experiences (CX), personalization and other types of customer value. Get in touch here.

I am also author of the Moats and Marathons book series, a framework for building and measuring competitive advantages in digital businesses.

This content (articles, podcasts, website info) is not investment, legal or tax advice. The information and opinions from me and any guests may be incorrect. The numbers and information may be wrong. The views expressed may no longer be relevant or accurate. This is not investment advice. Investing is risky. Do your own research.

Support the show

This week’s podcast is about generative AI strategy. And it's my summary of some key points of Sangeet Choudary's book "Reshuffle: Who wins when AI restacks the knowledge economy".

You can listen to this podcast here, which has the slides and graphics mentioned. Also available at iTunes and Google Podcasts.

Here is the link to the TechMoat Consulting.

Here is the link to our Tech Tours.

My take-aways are:

1. GenAI’s Biggest Impact Will Be as a New Technology for Coordination.
2. GenAI Coordination Happens at 3 Levels (Shipping Container Example).
3. GenAI is Dramatically Increasing What Can Be Coordinated. And How (OTA and Construction Examples).
4. GenAI Will Impact How Firms Coordinate Knowledge. And Will Create Brains for Organizations.

Photo by Sanket Mishra on Unsplash

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I am a consultant and keynote speaker on how to accelerate growth with improving customer experiences (CX) and digital moats.

I am a partner at TechMoat Consulting, a consulting firm specialized in how to increase growth with improved customer experiences (CX), personalization and other types of customer value. Get in touch here.

I am also author of the Moats and Marathons book series, a framework for building and measuring competitive advantages in digital businesses.

This content (articles, podcasts, website info) is not investment, legal or tax advice. The information and opinions from me and any guests may be incorrect. The numbers and information may be wrong. The views expressed may no longer be relevant or accurate. This is not investment advice. Investing is risky. Do your own research.

Support the show

This week’s podcast is a plan for building an Agentic AI operating model.

You can listen to this podcast here, which has the slides and graphics mentioned. Also available at iTunes and Google Podcasts.

Here is the link to the TechMoat Consulting.

Here is the link to our Tech Tours.

Here are the mentioned articles. A lot of this thinking is from these McKinsey articles.

• The agentic organization: Contours of the next paradigm for the AI era
• The change agent: Goals, decisions, and implications for CEOs in the agentic age

Here are the building blocks for an Agentic AI Operating Model:

• Operating model. Based on AI-first work flows. With agent teams as the building blocks. Plus orchestration of agent teams.
• Hybrid workforce, with new talent profiles.
• Technology and data
• Governance

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I am a consultant and keynote speaker on how to accelerate growth with improving customer experiences (CX) and digital moats.

I am a partner at TechMoat Consulting, a consulting firm specialized in how to increase growth with improved customer experiences (CX), personalization and other types of customer value. Get in touch here.

I am also author of the Moats and Marathons book series, a framework for building and measuring competitive advantages in digital businesses.

This content (articles, podcasts, website info) is not investment, legal or tax advice. The information and opinions from me and any guests may be incorrect. The numbers and information may be wrong. The views expressed may no longer be relevant or accurate. This is not investment advice. Investing is risky. Do your own research.

Support the show