The Think Tank with Mike O'Neil

Should you believe the polls? How election night 2020 will be unlike any other. What to look for on election night for an early indication of the outcome.

I have been doing this show for about 7.5 years. It has been a real labor of love and something quite different for me. I don’t pretend to be a “radio guy.” I see people here who can fill the airwaves with their perfect voices, never stumble over a word and do it all effortlessly. That’s not me.

I am here as a policy wonk, someone with the luxury to read several hours a day on matters of policy. But even this is really a hobby.

More significantly, I have spent the last 40 years doing survey research (“polling” if you must). My training in this involves years of study at some of the leading academic survey research centers in the world.

My relevant expertise is hear is both real and extensive.

Ten days before the election, I thought it would be worthwhile to share some of this perspective and address:

· Can we trust the polls after 2016?

· Should we believe them?

Very fair questions.

Why important? If the polls are at all accurate, Joe Biden has this election all wrapped up. But that is a very big “if”.

Most people think professional pollsters will be the first to defend the infallibility of polls. Completely wrong. I know many of the serious professional pollsters in this country personally. Many are friends. I have listened to them present at professional meetings and I’ve spent innumerable hours discussing methodological issues with them. True professional pollsters know the limitations on and fragilities of their work.

In this hour I will shed some light on the question “can you believe the polls”.

There are some genuine and enduring problems with polling that has evolved over the last 20 years or so that concern me greatly. And I’ve been talking about these publicly in speeches for all of those years.

· But there are also reasons to believe that the polls will be more accurate in 2020 than they were in 2016.

· And most of the theories you have probably heard about what happened in 2016 turn out to be totally wrong. I will tell you about these as well.

To do this I will walk you through the history of polling over the last 100 years. Not as a sterile historical exercise, but because some of our current problems have echoes in prior debacles (1936 Literary Digest, 1948 “Dewey beats Truman”, and 2016, among others). Many of polling’s current limitations have their roots in the problems of decades ago.

We will then consider:

· What happened in 2016 polling (systematic research has been done on this and many of the popular assumptions are simply wrong)

· What is different (and the same) in 2020

· Which pollsters should you trust…and why?

· Why election night 2020 will be unlike any other.

· What are the most likely paths to victory for each candidate?

There is a lot riding on the answers to these questions. I hope to provide some real and useful insight.

The Think Tank airs on KTAR 92.3 FM on Saturday 3-4pm and Sundays from 9-10pm. Podcasts are available after broadcast at ktar.com

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Education Funding and Legal Marijuana Initiatives

This week’s Think Tank features debates on the two statewide initiatives that the voters will fact this election.

Proposition 207 will legalize recreational marijuana for those over 21, impose a 16% tax on it’s sale and permit sentence reviews for those previously convicted of possession of small quantities of marijuana.

Former Arizona Senate Minority Leader Chad Campbell will speak in favor

Public relations professional Lisa James will speak against.

Proposition 208 will impose a 3.5% income surcharge but only on personal income exceeding $500,000 for couples (income over $250,000 for single filers). The proceeds will increase educational funding in the state.

Joe Thomas, Arizona Education Association is in favor.

Marty Shultz --longtime retired APS lobbyist is against.

The Think Tank airs on KTAR 92.3 FM on Saturday 3-4pm and Sundays from 9-10pm. Podcasts are available after broadcast at ktar.com

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Maricopa County Attorney Debate

The county attorney is arguably the most important position in the entire criminal justice system.

This is a very important job.

Our guests in this week’s Think Tank are the two candidates for Maricopa County Attorney.

Their debate is the subject of this week’s Think Tank.  We ran over in time, so their closing statement are on the web at www.KTAR.com

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Can Democrats get a voice at the Arizona Legislature?

The Senate Race in LD 28 may be determinative.  

This week’s Think Tank is a debate between the candidates for the Arizona Senate in Legislative District 28.

Even if you don’t live in this district, you should care about the results of this race.

With few exceptions, Republicans have been in near total control of the Arizona legislature for over 50 years.  Democrats have a rare but viable chance of changing that this year. But it is difficult to see them getting even a tie in the Senate without winning this race.

Furthermore, this race is a rerun of 2018 when these same two candidates faced off and incumbent Republican Sen. Kate Brophy McGee received 47,278 votes and beat Democratic challenger Christine Porter Marsh who got  47,011. That is 267 votes out of approximately 100,000 votes cast. This is likely to be a very close race. 

There is another reason to listen in.  There was a Presidential debate this week. It was characterized by a lack of civility. Both candidates have been guests on the Think Tank before. Tune in to this week’s Think Tank and see how candidates for public office can disagree with one another with civility and grace.

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This week’s Think Topic is Ruth Bader Ginsburg. We will discuss her life, her legacy, and the likely political impact of the fight for her seat on the Supreme Court.  

Betsy West conceived and directed the 2018 CNN documentary film, RBG. The film won a primetime Emmy award and was nominated for two Academy Awards. Betsy was a producer and news executive at both CBS and ABC where, among other accolades, she won 21 Emmy awards. She is also emeritus Professor at the Columbia School of Journalism. We will discuss with her both her insights about Justice Ginsburg and the making of her documentary film.

Chuck Coughlin and I will discuss the political fallout from the court vacancy.

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This week’s Think Tank explores the intersection of religious values and political activity.  Our guests are three very thoughtful people who have in various ways dealt with the intersection of values, religion and politics.

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The candidates for Maricopa County Sheriff square off in a formal debate in this week’s Think Tank.  This is the first of several key race debates.

Paul Penzone, a career Phoenix Police Officer, is the incumbent Maricopa County Sheriff. He was elected to that post in 2016.

Jerry Sheridan is a career MCSO employee and rose to the rank of Chief Deputy Sheriff, overseeing much of the department’s operations.  

Among other things, we ask about

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Mary Jo West was the first woman to anchor a prime time news broadcast in Phoenix. She anchored the news at Channel 10 (then KOOL-TV) from 1976 to 1982, and KTVK Channel 3 from 1983 to 1986. In between she did a stint anchoring a network CBS overnight show.

Then she left commercial television news and largely dropped from public view.

From the outside it looked glamorous. From the inside, it wasn’t as seamless as it appeared. Her co-anchor, Bill Close, was much older and a fixture in Phoenix broadcasting. And he, by all accounts, did not much appreciate sharing the anchor desk with a woman, especially a twenty-something woman.

Additionally, there was an extraordinary speech given in Congress last week. Congresswoman Alexandria Occasio-Cortez was rudely insulted by Cong Ted Yoho on the steps of the Capitol. You have probably heard about the incident and perhaps heard a short excerpt of this speech. But the full 10 minute speech is for the ages. Firstly, and certainly for the content of the speech. But also, as someone who has studied persuasion, this is one of the most powerful and artful rhetorical takedowns I have ever heard. She addresses not only the sexism underlying his remarks, but also takes apart his non-apology apology. This speech will be studied in rhetoric classes for many years. Regardless of your political persuasion, it is worth hearing for that reason alone. We play the speech in its entirety and then listen to Mary Jo’s reaction to it. Television news, sexism, career and life choices, all in this episode Think Tank.

This episode was originally broadcast on August 1st, 2020.

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