Severe weather and heavy rain chances shift into the Mid-Mississippi,
Ohio and Tennessee valleys today before progressing into the Mid-Atlantic,
Southeast, and Gulf Coast on Memorial Day...

...Dangerous and potentially record-breaking heat continues across parts
of Texas, the western Gulf Coast, and southern Florida...

...Active weather returns to the southern Plains on Tuesday with
additional chances for severe weather and flash flooding...

An organizing storm system over the central U.S. is responsible for
numerous thunderstorms stretching from Kansas/Missouri to the Edwards
Plateau of Texas. Boundaries aiding this convection include a dryline
extending southward through the southern Plains and a slowly lifting warm
front stretching from the central Plains through the Ohio Valley. Current
storms are expected to grow upscale and merge into a larger complex of
thunderstorms by morning while swinging through parts of Missouri,
Illinois, western Kentucky, and neighboring states. Damaging wind gusts,
large hail, and tornadoes are possible. Additionally, heavy rain may lead
to scattered instances of flash flooding with this initial burst of
thunderstorms. By the afternoon hours another round of showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front and impact
similar regions, with the severe threat shifting further east across the
Ohio Valley overnight. More chances for all modes of severe weather are
possible, with repeating storms potentially increasing the flash flooding
threat throughout parts of Kentucky and Tennessee. Area of heavy rain may
also lead to flash flooding concerns near the low pressure center as it
progresses toward southern Wisconsin tonight.

As the center of the storm system enters the Great Lakes on Monday and the
attached cold front extends from the Ohio Valley to the southern Plains,
severe weather and heavy rain chances will focus along the eastern U.S.
and Gulf Coast States. More specifically, the greatest chances for intense
rainfall rates leading to flash flooding exists across eastern
Pennsylvania and neighboring section of southeast New York and northwest
New Jersey, where a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall is in
effect on Memorial Day. Severe thunderstorms are most likely across the
Mid-Atlantic as well as an area stretching from the Lower Mississippi
Valley to the Southeast. Damaging wind gusts and hail are the primary
potential hazards. Residents and visitors planning to enjoy outdoor
holiday barbecues and parties should remain weather aware and have
multiple ways to receive warnings.

Heavy rain and severe thunderstorm chances extend from the Midwest to
the Southern Plains tonight...

...Next round of severe weather to develop across the Central/Southern
Plains Saturday evening before shifting into parts of the
Mid-Mississippi/Ohio Valleys on Sunday...

...Dangerous and potentially record-breaking heat continues across South
Texas, the Gulf Coast, and southern Florida through Memorial Day...

The relentlessly active spring weather pattern is set to continue through
the holiday weekend as two separate systems are anticipated to be
responsible for numerous showers and thunderstorms across the middle of
the Nation. A low pressure system with an attached cold front extends from
the Upper Midwest to the Southern Plains and should maintain a focus for
showers and thunderstorms to develop. Along the cold front as it extends
southward, storms could turn severe from the Midwest to the southern
Plains. This same cold front could slow it's forward momentum and allow
for thunderstorms to potentially train over parts of, central-western
Tennessee, southwestern Kentucky, northwestern Alabama, southern Arkansas,
northwest Mississippi, northern Louisiana, and northeast Texas, leading to
the threat of scattered flash flooding. Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms
may dampen outdoors plans throughout the Southeast and Tennessee Valley.

The next shortwave to eject out of the western U.S. and into the Great
Plains is expected to spark another round of severe weather Saturday
evening in the Central/Southern Plains. At the surface, low pressure
forming in the lee of the Central Rockies is forecast to lift a warm front
northward into the Central Plains and Mid-Mississippi Valley, while a
sharp dryline extends southward into the Southern Plains. These features
combined with a strengthening low-level jet will allow for storms to turn
severe, with a risk for large hail, intense rainfall rates, a few
tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts. The Storm Prediction Center has issued
an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for severe thunderstorms across parts of
Kansas, Oklahoma, and western Missouri in order to highlight the threat.
As clusters of storms move eastward with the low pressure system on
Sunday, the flash flooding and severe weather will also shift into the
Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Tornadoes, hail, strong winds, and flash
flooding will all be possible. Residents and visitors located within the
threat for severe weather this weekend are urged to have multiple ways of
receiving warnings and to continue to check for the latest forecast.

Showers and severe thunderstorms will develop as the front over
the Plains moves onto the Mississippi Valley.  Therefore, the SPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Western Ohio Valley and Middle/Lower Mississippi. The hazards associated
with these strong to severe thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. However, there will be
an added threat of hail, two inches or greater, over parts of the Southern
Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley.

Also, on Friday, the threat of excessive rainfall will decrease slightly
with two areas of a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over
the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi, Tennessee Valleys, and Central
Appalachians and the second over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and
Upper Great Lakes/Western Ohio Valley. The associated heavy rain will
create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience
rapid runoff with heavy rain.

 Moreover, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop ahead of a
dryline over parts of the Central/Southern Plains on Saturday. Therefore,
the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms
over parts of the Central/Southern Plains on Saturday. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

The showers and thunderstorms will also produce heavy rain over parts of
the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley on Saturday. Therefore, the
WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley. The associated heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Meanwhile, a sub-tropical upper-level high over Mexico will aid in
spawning Heat Advisories over southern Texas through Saturday. The ridging
will create a dangerous early-season heat wave over south Texas, Southern
Florida, and into the Central Gulf Coast. Record or near-record warm
overnight temperatures will provide little to no relief to those without
adequate or reliable cooling. By this weekend, record daily high
temperatures and heat index readings over 115 degrees over the regions
will also be possible. The heat is expected to continue next week,
although some relief may reach the Gulf Coast after Memorial Day with a
cold front. Check local media and government websites for cooling center
locations and hours, especially if you encounter or are dealing with a
loss of power. If you use a portable generator, do so safely to avoid
carbon monoxide poisoning. Never use a generator inside a house, garage,
or other enclosed space!

Weather Thursday May 23 2024 Shoers and t-storms from DC to Boston , severe weather Tenn Valley... some rain Charlotte, Dry west coast 

Fair in the Northeast    dry west coast   Severe weather Oklahoma 

Weather Tuesday May 21 2024 Fair in New York City, dry Atlanta ... T-storms Chicago and the great lakes 

An energetic upper-level pattern will bring a couple rounds of storms to
the central U.S. over the next few days. Tonight, moist return flow
following a warm front moving northward through the Plains and ahead of a
dryline over the High Plains will provide more than enough instability to
trigger robust thunderstorm development over the Central Plains.
Increasing upper-level winds will promote supercells with the threat of
large hail and a few tornadoes. Storms are also expected to grow upscale
into one or more organized convective systems, bringing a heightened
threat for potentially widespread, significant damaging winds later this
evening. As such, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk
of severe weather (level 4/5). Storm chances will shift northeastward into
the Upper Midwest tonight and into the Great Lakes by Monday following an
initial upper-wave/accompanying surface frontal system. An amplifying
long-wave trough over the West will help to enhance lee cyclogenesis over
the High Plains bringing another chance of storms to the Central
Plains/Missouri Valley by Monday evening. The Storm Prediction Center has
included a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for the threat of some more damaging
winds and large hail, and possibly a tornado. Some locally heavy downpours
will also be possible, particularly from the Central Plains into the Upper
Mississippi Valley tonight and the Central Plains once again Monday, with
an isolated chance of flash flooding.

There will be a renewed threat for heavy rainfall and thunderstorms over
the Northern/Central Plains and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley on Tuesday
as a deepening low pressure system tracks across the region. The Storm
Prediction Center issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of Severe
Thunderstorms from eastern Kansas to Southwest Wisconsin. There's also a
Slight Risk (at least 15%) of Excessive Rainfall for parts of southern and
eastern Minnesota, much of Wisconsin and northern Illinois. There are also
some isolated chances for severe weather and excessive rainfall into
northern Texas and eastern Oklahoma.

Increasing severe weather and excessive rainfall threats over the
Central U.S. through early next week...

...Sweltering heat continues across South Florida and southern Texas,
building into the southern High Plains this weekend...

Stormy conditions should wind down across the central Gulf coast while
persisting along a quasi-stationary boundary over Florida through Sunday.
Attention shifts toward the Central U.S. on Sunday and into early next
week as a deep mid-level low digs into the West. A surface low pressure
system will bring heavy rain and thunderstorms to parts of the Great
Plains and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley on Sunday. Despite the
Excessive Rainfall threat being Marginal (at least 5%), the Storm
Prediction Center issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of Severe
Thunderstorms across portions of western and central Kansas on Sunday.
Significant damaging gusts, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes
are all possible according to the SPC. A Slight Risk (level 2/5) of Severe
Thunderstorms is in effect for portions of Nebraska, Kansas, southwest
Iowa and northwest Missouri. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the
primary threats from these storms. Additionally, some light snow to
moderate snowfall is possible on the backside of this system in the
Northern Rockies over the next couple of days.

Intense Summer-like heat will continue over portions of South Florida and
southern Texas this weekend, and expand in coverage into portions of the
southern High Plains. Forecast highs will be in the 90s for Florida with
mid-90s to mid-100s in Texas, potentially record-tying/breaking levels.
When combined with the humidity, heat indices will soar to near 110 in
South Florida. While not quite as hot, temperatures will still be well
above average more broadly across much of the country this weekend,
particularly from the Central Plains into the Midwest where highs in the
80s to near 90 will be common. Highs will also be above average for
portions of the West, with 70s and 80s in the Great Basin/interior
California and 90s to low 100s in the Desert Southeast. More temperate,
below average conditions are expected along much of the East Coast, with
50s and 60s in New England and 60s and 70s into the
Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas. The Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies will also
be cooler, with highs in the 50s and 60s expected here as well. Variable
temperatures are forecast for the Southeast due to ongoing storms, with
mainly 80s expected. 

Unsettled weather with chances for excessive rainfall and severe
thunderstorms continues across the Southeast Saturday...

...Severe weather potential returns to the Central Plains on Sunday...

...Sweltering heat continues across South Florida and southern Texas,
building into the southern High Plains this weekend...

A wet Saturday is in store for the Southeast as an upper-level wave and
associated surface frontal system focused along the Gulf Coast lead to a
broad area of showers and thunderstorms. Rich moisture along and south of
this boundary may lead to some locally heavy downpours, with a Slight Risk
of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) in place for portions of southern
Alabama, southwestern Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle. An expected
round of widespread, organized thunderstorms over wet soils from storms
already occurring overnight Friday will lead to the threat of some
scattered instances of flash flooding. Some storms will also carry the
threat for damaging winds and an isolated tornado or two, with a Slight
Risk of severe weather (level 2/5) extending eastward further into
southern Georgia and northern Florida. Moderate to locally heavy rainfall
will be possible elsewhere to the north of the boundary, with a few
additional isolated instances of flash flooding possible. Additional
showers will expand northward into the Mid-Atlantic, and onshore flow
ahead of a system over the Atlantic will bring showers to New England as
well, but these should remain lighter than those over the Southeast. Storm
chances will taper off from west to east for much of the Southeast
overnight Saturday and into early Sunday as the northern part of the
frontal system pushes eastward into the Atlantic. A trailing cold front
will keep storms in the forecast for Florida Sunday.

...Dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding likely today for portions
of eastern Texas and western Louisiana...

...Potentially significant heavy rainfall threat spreads into portions of
southern Mississippi and western Alabama tomorrow...

...Sweltering heat continues across South Florida and South Texas into
this weekend...

The main weather story today remains the dangerous and life-threatening
flash flood potential over the Lower Mississippi Valley into the overnight
hours as widespread thunderstorms batter areas which are very vulnerable
to additional rainfall. Since the upgrade to a High Risk (level 4/4) of
Excessive Rainfall last night, little has changed this afternoon regarding
the placement and severity of the flash flooding threat in eastern Texas
and western Louisiana. Radar across east-central Texas this afternoon
depicts an expansive thunderstorm complex growing along a warm front, with
very moist and unstable air feeding into it to support continuous storm
development this afternoon. Going into the evening and overnight hours,
repeating of these thunderstorms containing very heavy rainfall rates
within the complex will lead to rainfall amounts of 5-8" today within the
High Risk area over eastern Texas and western Louisiana before the
thunderstorms migrate eastward by tomorrow morning. Remember, High Risks
for Excessive Rainfall are a BIG DEAL: 1/3 flood related fatalities and
4/5 flood related damages occur in WPC High Risks, so pay attention to the
latest warning information and NEVER drive or walk into floodwaters.
Flooding aside, the same storms are also capable of producing a few
tornadoes, severe wind, and hail, with the Storm Prediction Center
maintaining an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe weather over much of
the same area today. 

By tomorrow morning, the threat of significant flash flooding will spread
east into southern Mississippi and western Alabama as the aforementioned
warm front stalls out over the Southeast. Once again, a very moist and
unstable atmosphere appears primed to support bouts of prolific heavy
rainfall, with multiple rounds of storms expected as multiple disturbances
aloft traverse the area. When combined with saturated soils from recent
heavy rainfall, a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) is in effect tomorrow with
areal rainfall amounts upwards of 2-5" (locally up to 7") possible. It
should be noted that there is some uncertainty with where the heaviest
rain falls owing to how the current storms in Texas behave later today, so
stay tuned for any adjustments to the forecast. Once again, severe weather
will also be an issue south of the warm front across the Gulf States, with
a Slight Risk (level 2/5) in effect for few tornadoes, very large hail,
and damaging wind.

The same warm front driving the thunderstorms will also contribute to
sweltering heat in South Florida and Texas. Recent experimental NWS
HeatRisk guidance continues to suggest moderate to locally major heat
related impacts will continue across these areas at least through Saturday
due to the combination of heat indices eclipsing 100 degrees, with little
overnight relief expected.