The growing use of Artificial Intelligence in the field of weather prediction and forecasting is likely to have profound implications for national meteorological services in the coming years.

In this fifth episode in our special WeatherPod series on AI, we've invited Dr. Alan Hally into the studio to examine how one met service - Met Éireann - is approaching the use of AI in its operations. Alan is the Scientific Lead in Met Éireann's recently formed AI Transformation Team. This team's primary aim is to optimise the services Met Éireann provides to Irish citizens through the targeted application of AI or machine learning technologies.

Alan is the Scientific Lead in Met Éireann's recently formed AI Transformation Team. This team's primary aim is to optimise the services Met Éireann provides to Irish citizens through the targeted application of AI or machine learning technologies. 

During our discussion we covered a number of key issues intimately connected to the use of AI-based weather forecasting systems.

These ranged from:

- the impact AI could have on the use of traditional NWP techniques;

- the organisational implications for national weather services of the increasing use of AI;

- and the importance of working with weather affected end-users when it comes to developing decision support systems.

While Alan has not worked specifically on AI in his career to date, it's absolutely clear from our conversation that this is an area where Met Éireann sees enormous potential for its future operations.

In this episode of The WeatherPod, hosts Alan Thorpe and David Rogers invite Irina Sandu, Director of Destination Earth at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts - the ECMWF - into the studio.

Irina Sandu is the Director of Destination Earth (DestinE) at ECMWF, a flagship initiative of the European Union to develop a digital twin of planet Earth. Prior to taking the lead of ECMWF’s involvement in DestinE in summer 2023, she was Science Lead for the initiative from January 2022.

Irina has also coordinated polar prediction related activities at ECMWF for several years, most prominently in the context of the ongoing WMO Year of Polar Prediction and the H2020 project APPLICATE. Irina is also the co-lead of the H2020 nextGEMS project, which develops the next generation of storm and eddy resolving models which underpin the DestinE climate digital twin.

More recently, Irina has helped shaping the science plan for DestinE and led the DestinE science activities at ECMWF. Irina is now leading the implementation of the activities ECMWF is responsible for delivering in DestinE by working closely with partners throughout Europe, related to the first two high priority digital twins and digital twin engine.

The guest this episode is Florian Pappenberger, Deputy-Director General & Director of Forecasts at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the ECMWF.

Hosts David Rogers and Alan Thorpe delve into the ECMWF's use of AI and how this may impact it's future products and services, especially when it comes to their use in the developing countries by meteorological services and other customers.

Florian leads the ECMWF's Forecast Department which is responsible for the production of weather forecasts, forecast quality control, and the development of novel forecast products.

ECMWF has for a while been experimenting with using deep learning to produce a data-based AI weather prediction model and last October Florian played a key role in the launch of the Artificial Intelligence / Integrated Forecasting System. This is the ECMWF's first forecasting system incorporating a machine learning prediction module.

In this special AI Episode, hosts Alan Thorpe and David Rogers invite Amy McGovern into the studio to discuss the meaning of "trustworthy AI".

Amy is Director of the National Science Foundation AI Institute for Research on Trustworthy AI in Weather, Climate, and Coastal Oceanography - or AI2ES for short.

She's also a Professor at Oklahoma University's School of Computer Science and School of Meteorology.

Working under the University of Oklahoma's leadership, AI2ES brings together researchers in AI, atmospheric science, ocean science, and risk communication. The thinking is that accelerated AI research in the environmental sciences can improve understanding of the rapid changes taking place in weather patterns, oceans, sea level rise, and disaster risk.

Amy's research focuses on developing and applying machine learning and data mining methods for real-world applications, with a specific interest in high-impact weather.

Much of this work involves weather analytics or physical data science and she and her students are developing physics-based trustworthy AI methods as well as explainable AI. Their aim is to apply their work to high-impact weather phenomena, including tornadoes, hail, severe wind events, flooding, drought, and aircraft turbulence.

A key aim is to help build a diverse and flexible science, technology, engineering, and mathematics workforce. Amy's thinking is that diversity will bring new ideas to the forefront, while flexibility is crucial to dealing with rapid changes in technology. To help this process, Amy and her team have developed outreach projects to encourage students to pursue STEM careers.

This work aside, Amy also directs the Interaction, Discovery, Exploration and Adaptation - or IDEA - Lab at Oklahoma University. The Lab's focus is on developing and applying data science, AI and machine learning techniques for high-impact real-world applications.

In this episode of The WeatherPod, hosts Alan Thorpe and David Rogers invite David Richardson of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts - the ECMWF - into the studio.

David Richardson has over 35 years’ experience in weather forecasting research and operations at the UK Met Office and, until recently, as Head of Evaluation at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts or ECMWF.

His work on ensemble prediction includes the configuration of ensembles to represent the uncertainties in the initial conditions and modelling systems, development of products and tools for forecast users, and evaluation of forecast performance.

Previously, he worked for the WMO where he played a key role in establishing the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble or TIGGE project on global ensemble forecasting - a project which led to improved understanding of predictability and also to improvements in forecasting skill.

David has chaired several WMO committees, and is currently chair of the WMO Standing Committee on Data Processing for Applied Earth System Modelling, Prediction & Projection (SC-ESMP). SC-ESMP leads and co-ordinates the WMO Integrated Processing and Prediction System (WIPPS) which facilitates the provision of numerical earth-system model forecasts, including ensembles, to all WMO members.

In this episode of The WeatherPod, hosts Alan Thorpe and David Rogers open a new series of discussions which focus specifically on the use of AI across the weather enterprise. In this first discussion, our hosts invite Professor Kirstine Dale of the UK Met Office into the studio.

About Kirstine Dale

Kirstine Dale is the Met Office's Chief AI Officer (CAIO) and Principal Fellow for Data Science. As CAIO she is charged with embedding AI in the Met Office’s core business - initially focusing on the use of AI in weather forecasting through leadership of the ‘AI for Numerical Weather Prediction’ (AI4NWP) programme.

As Principal Fellow, Kirstine plays a leading role in shaping the future of Data Science (including Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning) in the Met Office.

Kirstine is also Co-Director of the Natural Environment Theme of the Turing Research and Innovation Cluster on Digital Twins (TRIC-DT) and an Honorary Professor at the University of Exeter.

In this special episode of the WeatherPod, hosts Alan and David have invited into the studio Irene Amuron of the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, Paul Davies of the UK Met Office, and Terrence Fernando the University of Salford, to debate the question: “How do we improve outcomes for everyone at risk from the impact of hydrometeorological hazards?”

Societies are increasingly challenged by the need to cope with complex interconnected threats. Either a single hazard leads to a cascade of additional perils, often more significant effects than the primary one, or multiple independent hazards occur simultaneously. In each case, lack of planning and early preparation leads to the realisation of major adverse impacts on people and their livelihoods. Economic development may falter, and political instability becomes an added risk.

Climate change compounds existing threats and poses new ones; many, outside the bounds of experience, require us to harness new knowledge and take a more holistic view of the immediate and future risks facing us. The problem affects all of society and a “whole of society” approach is needed. This is immensely challenging. Societal compacts and partnerships among more than a few groups of stakeholders are rarely sustained and we proceed with compartmentalised approaches where each sector attempts to solve its own problems with little or no insight into how sectoral interdependencies compound and exacerbate risks or how to reduce them.

Two key concepts have emerged in the past decade as the means to improve people’s ability to handle different types of hazards – Anticipatory action and impact-based forecasting. Anticipatory action is a set of actions people can take to prevent harm to themselves and others before acute impacts are felt. Impact-based forecasts focus on what the hazard will do rather than what the hazard will be. In practice, anticipatory action and impact-based forecasts are complementary. Neither is effective without the other. “Good forecast but shame about the outcome” is a repeated mantra. So, for those impacts of hazards for which anticipatory action driven largely or in part by weather forecasts would make a difference, what isn’t being done right?

Irene Amuron, Head of Anticipatory Action, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre

Irene is the Head of Anticipatory Action at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre and the focal person for Learning and Guidance at the Anticipation Hub.

She is a technical expert in the field of disaster risk management, whose expertise includes specialist support to National Societies and partners on Anticipatory Action. Irene has over 15 years of experience in Disaster Risk Reduction and formerly served as the Manager, Disaster Risk Reduction with the Uganda Red Cross Society before joining the Climate Centre.

Irene was among the pioneers of the Forecast-based Financing approach in Uganda and has worked extensively in Africa, supporting the implementation of Anticipatory Action. She advocates for the value of the impact-based forecasting approach to weather and climate service delivery. She also supports research on anticipatory action/forecast based financing in collaboration with universities, including the University of Reading, UK.

Irene is currently undertaking her Ph.D. at the University of Twente, Netherlands, focusing on the impacts of Heatwaves in East Africa. Irene is passionate about building the collaboration and capacities of communities and national entities to address the impacts of climate change.

About the guests

Paul Davies, Met Office Principal Fellow, Meteorology and Chief Meteorologist.

Paul has a number of years experience in meteorology and is now recognised nationally and internationally as an authority in the field of operational meteorology.

As Principal Fellow, Paul will ensure the Met Office’s professional and cultural approach to weather forecasting is globally recognised and to head a respected and valuable operational meteorological profession. He will spearhead the innovation and use of new scientific, technological and operational techniques to deliver impact and benefit to a wide range of customers. Paul will also be the external figurehead for all things to do with the meteorological profession be this with stakeholders or key customers.

Paul was a Chief Forecaster in 2003 before being appointed as the Chief Hydrometeorologist and Deputy Head of the Flood Forecasting Centre in 2008. From 2010, he created the Met Office’s Hazards Centre and was the founder and inaugural Chair of the Natural Hazards Partnership (NHP) comprising a number of partner agencies, government departments and the Cabinet Office. Paul was the lead author to WMO’s Multi-Hazard Impact Based Forecasting and Risk Based Warnings guidelines in his capacity as WMO’s IMPACT task team chair. Paul later became UK representative on the WMO Commission for Basic Systems (CBS) OPAG Management group for GDPFS ensuring the flow of data and advice is cascaded between global, regional and national systems.

Terrence Fernando, Director of the THINKlab, University of Salford

Professor Terrence Fernando is the Director of the THINKlab(www.thinklab.salford.ac.uk), at the University of Salford in the UK, which is an interdisciplinary research centre focusing on developing technology solutions for the global challenges faced by society, industry and government organisations.

He has extensive experience in leading international research teams for producing innovative solutions in areas such as aerospace, space, built environment and disaster resilience. He led the MOBILISE project (mobilise.thinklab-salford.org) and the TRANSCEND project (www.transcend-project.org.uk), funded by the Global Challenges Research Funds (GCRF), and worked with organisations in Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Malaysia to develop digital solutions that can support multi-agency collaboration in building resilience against hazards such as floods and landslides.

He was also the technical lead for the Greater Manchester Resilience Forum Innovation project (gmrf.mobilise-project.org.uk/) which developed three digital demonstrators for strengthening community engagement, multi-agency collaboration, and training and exercise. As a part of the world Bank funded Climate Innovation Challenge Innovation Pilot (kalutara.mobilise-srilanka.org), he was instrumental in establishing a Living Lab (Urban Laboratory) in the Kalutara District in Sri Lanka to implement a multi-agency approach to building local resilience against climate change.

In this episode of The WeatherPod, hosts Alan Thorpe and and David Rogers invite Carlo Buentempo into the studio.

Dr. Carlo Buontempo is the Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), which is part of the European Union's Copernicus earth observation programme.The main mission of C3S is to make climate data more readily available and usable by society. As Director, Carlo leads a team of scientists at the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) as well as coordinating the activities of many external research groups and contractors working on this programme to deliver its mission. The Service offers free and open data about past, present and future climate to its hundreds of thousands of users across policy, business and scientific domains all over the world.

After doing a PhD in Physics at the university of L'Aquila in Italy, Carlo joined the the UK Met Office Hadley Centre where he led the climate adaptation and services teams before taking his current role at ECMWF.

About Copernicus

Copernicus is the European Union’s (EU’s) earth Observation programme, which is implemented in partnership with the European Space Agency (ESA), the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), EU Agencies and Mercator Océan.

Vast amounts of global data from satellites and ground-based, airborne, and seaborne measurement systems provide information to help service providers, public authorities, and other international organisations improve European citizens' quality of life and beyond. The information services provided are free and openly accessible to users.

One of these services is the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), which supports society by providing authoritative information about the past, present and future climate in Europe and the rest of the World. The C3S mission is to support adaptation and mitigation policies of the EU by providing consistent and authoritative information about climate change. It offers free and open access to climate data and tools based on the best available science. The service is implemented on behalf of the EU by ECMWF.

Theme music by John Cockram

In this episode of The WeatherPod, hosts Alan and David meet Paul Davies, Chief Meteorologist and Principal Research Fellow of the UK Met Office, to discuss the implications of 'impact-based forecasting' for the future of weather forecasting and of the weather forecaster.

Paul has a number of years experience in meteorology and is now recognized nationally and internationally as an authority in the field of operational meteorology.

As Principal Fellow, Paul will ensure the Met Office’s professional and cultural approach to weather forecasting is globally recognized and to head a respected and valuable operational meteorological profession. He will spearhead the innovation and use of new scientific, technological, and operational techniques to deliver impact and benefit to a wide range of customers. Paul will also be the external figurehead for all things to do with the meteorological profession be this with stakeholders or key customers.

Paul was a Chief Forecaster in 2003 before being appointed as the Chief Hydrometeorologist and Deputy Head of the Flood Forecasting Center in 2008. From 2010, he created the Met Office’s Hazards Center and was the founder and inaugural Chair of the Natural Hazards Partnership (NHP) comprising a number of partner agencies, government departments and the Cabinet Office.

Paul was the lead author to WMO’s Multi-Hazard Impact Based Forecasting and Risk Based Warnings guidelines in his capacity as WMO’s IMPACT task team chair. Paul later became UK representative on the WMO Commission for Basic Systems (CBS) OPAG Management group for GDPFS ensuring the flow of data and advice is cascaded between global, regional, and national systems.

Theme music by John Cockram

In this episode of The WeatherPod hosts David and Alan talk to Tim Palmer to explore some of the thoughts developed in his new book 'The Primacy of Doubt' (Basic Books) and their potential implications for weather forecasting.

About the guest

Tim is an eminent research scientist in weather and climate prediction and predictability. He has worked at the Met Office, at ECMWF and now is a Professor of Physics at the University of Oxford.

He is well known as an architect of ensemble weather prediction, but he is a polymath with interests across fundamental physics and maths. In his book 'The Primacy of Doubt' Tim discusses how incorporating uncertainty appropriately in the form of (random) noise into simulations and models of a range of natural phenomena, including weather and climate, is fundamental to improving the predictions of future behavior, i.e. the weather forecast.

Tim is also a keen musician. See:

Theme music by John Cockram