The Weekly Insight

There are a lot of things we take for granted in the world.  History, personal experiences, and public perceptions often build rock solid beliefs.  But sometimes, when you look back, you can’t exactly nail down where the belief originated.  That got us thinking about the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target.  Why is it 2%? How did that level become the presumed correct amount of inflation?  Who came up with it?

The answer to this question might surprise you. 

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-why-2/

Last week we saw a divergence of confidence. On the world stage, the ongoing battle between Israel and Hamas has caused concern worldwide. On our shores, we started to see earnings for Q3 – notably from the big banks – which fed optimism in equity markets.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-earnings-and-israel/

Imagine for a second we were in the midst of a 45% correction in equities.  Panic would rule the airwaves. Fear selling would dominate the markets. We know because it happened 15 years ago. 
 
But what if we told you that the bond market is down more than 45% from its peak?  That has significant impacts as well – and may create some significant opportunities. 

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-bond-bust/

It was Fed week again.  We’ve tried hard to talk about other things for the last few weeks, but Chairman Powell, inflation, and interest rates are the elephant in the room.  The market didn’t like the supposed “hawkish pause” on Wednesday.  But we think there might be something a little more dovish in Powell’s comments.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-a-position-to-proceed-carefully/

It shouldn’t come as a surprise that there’s a little drama roiling the markets right now.  The UAW strike combined with the possibility of a government shutdown has folks on edge.  But is that attitude justified? What does history tell us? And what might the real market consequences be?

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-strikes-and-shutdowns-oh-my/

There has been a lot of talk about China recently, highlighted by their newest move to ban iPhones for Chinese government employees.  But the tale of the relations between the two largest economies of the world has been changing for some time now as our economic fortunes become less and less linked.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-red-dragon/

This week, we look at some very interesting economic data that came out last week including: the impact of Swifties on consumer spending, a slowly normalizing labor market, and the impact hurricanes can have on the economy.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-swifties-unite/

Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave his much anticipated “Jackson Hole” speech on Friday.  After last year’s hard-hitting speech on the inflation battle, this year’s comments were highly anticipated.  Powell’s comments were much calmer this year, and the market loved them.  But they also gave some signs about things to come.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-more-things-change/

August has not been the best month in the markets this year. Interestingly enough, that’s consistent with nearly 40 years of history as it ranks as the worst month of market returns going back all the way to 1986. But is this the start of something bad? Or is the market just taking a breath in our current bull rally. 

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-august-never-fails/

It was inflation week again last week – the first of two before the next Fed meeting.  And the results were interesting.  Some called it a “hot” reading.  Others thought it wasn’t so bad.  But what we did see, in both CPI and PPI, was a slight tick up.  But part of that is tied to the math around the “base case”.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-base-case/