The Weekly Rebalance

📉 Two bond portfolios can have the exact same duration and still react completely differently when rates move. The difference is convexity. 🤔In Episode 47, Revisor CIO Ethan Dunbar and Nick Cargill explain why the Bloomberg Agg is down 2.97% YTD, with the 10-year at 5.31% and the 30-year at 5.66% 📊. Then they break down the fixed income lever most managers never quote:⚖️ Barbell vs. bullet structures🔁 Adding convexity without changing your duration target💸 The trade-off: the yield you give up when the curve stays stable🏠 Negative convexity in mortgage-backed securities🚨 Why high-yield spreads just spikedPlus: mega-cap tech vs. rate-sensitive stocks, today's housing market compared with 2008, and bond vigilante trivia 🧠💬 Comment below: would you add convexity at today's yield levels, or stay bullet?🔁 Share this with an advisor who only talks duration!#Revisor #WeeklyRebalance #FixedIncome #Convexity #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #BondDuration #HighYieldBonds #MortgageBackedSecurities #RIA #WealthManagement #FinancialAdvisor #FinancialMarkets #InvestmentStrategy #MarketAnalysis

🚨 The Fed delivered its first rate hike in three years, and the 30-year Treasury yield fell. 📉💬 Tell us in the comments: does today look more like 1999 or 2004?Nick and Ethan explain the post-hike bear flattening. The short end rose while 10-, 20- and 30-year yields dropped roughly 5–7 bps in a week. 🧭 They cover why markets read it as a "credibility hike," 🏠 what it means for ~7% mortgages, locked-in homeowners and home prices that are still up 1.8%, and 📚 how today compares with the 1999–2000 and 2004–06 hiking cycles.The episode also covers hyperscaler debt demand, a stronger dollar (DXY), and a trivia question about who kept the long end anchored in '04–'06. 🧠🔁 Share this with an advisor who's fielding rate questions from clients, and follow Revisor for RIA-grade analysis every week.#Revisor #WeeklyRebalance #FedRateHike #YieldCurve #BearFlattening #TreasuryYields #BondMarket #MortgageRates #HousingMarket #RIA #WealthManagement #FinancialAdvisor #MarketAnalysis #InvestmentStrategy #FinancialMarkets

🎲 The bond market says a rate hike tomorrow is a near-lock at 92% — but betting markets have it at a coin flip. That gap is the real story of this episode. Nick, Ethan, and returning guest Garrett break down what's driving the divergence: hot CPI data, a resilient labor market, and a 30-year Treasury yield that's actually falling even as short-term rates rise. 🏦Then things get fun: the crew fires up a Fed policy simulator and plays through an entire term as Chair Kevin Warsh — juggling inflation, unemployment, presidential pressure, and a DOJ removal threat in real time. Spoiler: they crash the economy and walk away with a grade of F.

📉💬 Would YOU have hiked tomorrow, or held? Tell us in the comments.

🔁 Know someone obsessed with Fed policy? Share this one with them.

🎮 Huge thanks to Bill Meade Gaming for letting us feature their Fed simulator on the show. Check it out here:https://store.steampowered.com/search/?developer=Billmeade%20Gaming

#Revisor #WeeklyRebalance #FederalReserve #FOMC #KevinWarsh #TreasuryYields #YieldCurve #RateHikes #FixedIncome #RIATech #InvestmentStrategy #FinancialMarkets #MarketAnalysis

🚨 Schwab just quietly rolled out fractional share trading to financial advisors — no fanfare, no press tour, just a huge unlock for SMAs. Nick and Ethan break down why this is a bigger deal than it looks.

📉 Markets first: the 10-year Treasury yield is flirting with 5%, the ECB just hiked, and a stronger-than-expected jobs report has the Fed's next move (and Chair Warsh's independence) squarely in focus. The guys debate hikes vs. holds heading into CPI and the September FOMC meeting — and why the political fight over rates may be aimed at the wrong end of the curve.

💡 Then: Schwab's fractional trading rollout, what it means for SMA minimums, precision rebalancing, and the $864B direct indexing wave. Plus: does fractional trading spell the end of stock splits? BofA's data says split stocks return 25% vs. the S&P's 12% — coincidence or momentum? 🤔

👉 Drop a comment: will fractional shares push more advisors from ETFs into SMAs?

🔁 Share this episode with an advisor who needs to know about Schwab's fractional rollout, and subscribe for weekly market breakdowns!

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🚨 Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech — delivered on his 100th day in office — moved rate-hike odds by 20% in just 30 minutes. That's the surprise nobody was pricing in.

This week Nick & Ethan break down what's really happening under the hood of markets: light September volatility (📉 S&P -71bps, small caps -1.2%) opening up tax-loss harvesting windows, Nvidia's post-earnings 9% pop even as semiconductor peers like Applied Materials and Marvell slid, and why the VIX is still surprisingly calm at 16.42.

Then it's into the research segment 🧠 — decoding "bear steepening" vs. "bear flattening," why the 30-year yield just hit its highest level since 2007, and why historically tight credit spreads pushed the team to trim high-yield exposure and upgrade credit quality across portfolios.

💬 Comment below: Do you think the Fed hikes before the midterms — or waits?

🔁 Enjoyed this? Share it with a colleague or client who needs to understand what's driving fixed income right now.

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Wolf of Wall Street is more fiction than fact — but Nick's #2 pick nails 2008 almost too well. 🎬📉 This week Nick and Ethan trade the spreadsheets for the popcorn, ranking seven classic Wall Street movies (Big Short, Margin Call, Too Big to Fail, Wolf of Wall Street, Trading Places, Wall Street, Dumb Money) on realism vs. entertainment — then tie every single one back to today's markets, from Michael Burry's chip short to the "too big to fail" precedent set after SVB. 📈

Before the movie talk: a full market update covering the S&P/Nasdaq pullback, a sharp bear-steepening move in Treasury yields, Bessent's buyback debate, and gold/Bitcoin's surprising rally. 🪙

💬 Comment below: which finance movie do YOU think is most realistic?

🔁 Share this episode with your favorite finance-movie buff, and subscribe for weekly RIA-grade market analysis from Revisor.

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Waste Management just traded at nearly the same P/E ratio as NVIDIA (31.83 vs. 33) — and once you see the moat behind it, it makes total sense. This week Nick and Ethan open with a wild market day (S&P/Nasdaq/Dow all green, Moderna up 175%, and active-portfolio names Mastercard, Ferrari, and Rivian popping 📈), then dig into the Fed's hawkish-leaning minutes ahead of Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole keynote and a 30-year Treasury yield hitting its highest level since 2007 💵. From there, a full "Research of the Week" deep dive on the waste management oligopoly — landfill permitting moats, tipping fees, recession/inflation resistance, and why WM, Republic Services, and Waste Connections command NVIDIA-level valuations. Plus: renewable natural gas revenue, forever-chemical liability, and a surprisingly great trivia round 🎲.💬 Comment below: would you rather own NVIDIA or a landfill?🔁 Know someone who'd love this deep dive? Share the episode!#Revisor #WeeklyRebalance #RIATech #WasteManagement #MarketAnalysis #EquityValuation #FedWatch #InvestmentStrategy #NVIDIA #OligopolyStocks #PortfolioManagement #FinancialMarkets #Investing #WallStreet #StockMarketNews

🚀 The surprising insight this week: SpaceX isn't really an "IPO stock" — it's quietly becoming AI infrastructure landlord to its own competitors, with Anthropic reportedly paying north of $1B/month to lease its Colossus data center. Nick and Ethan break down markets at all-time highs (S&P +12.84% YTD 📈), a blockbuster earnings season, and softening labor data that's reshaping the Fed's next move. Then it's a full SpaceX deep dive: the three real business segments, why it trades at 80x sales and 40x EV/EBITDA, the CapEx-vs-revenue math ($50B spend vs. $21B revenue), the recent lockup unlock, and what a future S&P 500 inclusion could mean for index investors. Plus: a look at how IPOs actually perform post-listing, and some fun space trivia to close it out. 🌌

💬 Comment below: would you buy SpaceX at today's valuation, or wait?
📲 Enjoyed the episode? Share it with a colleague or client who's been asking about SpaceX!

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🚨 Surprising twist: the market breadth everyone's been waiting for might finally be here — and the bond market is throwing a tantrum about it. We're back from a summer hiatus and diving straight into a stacked episode! 📊 First, we break down why Russell 2000 and Emerging Markets are up ~20% YTD, why the equal-weight S&P is finally beating the market-cap version, and why forward P/E cooling to 19.6x is actually a healthy sign. 🏦 Then we go deep on the "new Fed" — Chairman Warsh's ultra-short, 130-word statement, the historic 30-year Treasury spike, and a fascinating parallel to Greenspan's early Fed years. Plus: the case for and against Warsh's approach across credibility, volatility, independence, and inflation. 🎷 Bonus: a surprising Greenspan trivia fact you won't see coming!

💬 Comment below: Do you think less Fed guidance helps or hurts markets?
📲 Enjoying the show? Share this episode with a fellow advisor or investor!

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🚀 The surprising insight this week: AI may be here to stay, but the price investors pay still matters. In Weekly Rebalance #38, Ethan and Garrett break down SpaceX volatility, Micron’s sharp move lower, and why richly valued tech names can swing hard when expectations get questioned. They also discuss the US-Iran conflict’s impact on inflation, the K-shaped economy, and why dividend aristocrats held up while growth-heavy indexes struggled. Plus, the conversation turns to Kevin Warsh’s more hawkish Fed approach, 2% inflation targeting, less forward guidance, and what “messier meetings” could mean for market volatility.

💬 Comment early: Do you think less Fed transparency helps or hurts markets?
📲 Share this episode with an advisor, investor, or market watcher who follows AI, the Fed, and portfolio positioning.#Revisor #WeeklyRebalance #WeeklyRebalance38 #RIATech #WealthManagementTech #TheFed #FedPolicy #KevinWarsh #ArtificialIntelligence #AIVaultations #DividendAristocrats #FinancialMarkets #InvestmentStrategy #MarketAnalysis #PortfolioManagement