Monday 12th April 2021

Today, Rodney Hobson talks about cyclical stocks – shares that might bounce back after a recession. But how different is it this time? And what of counter-cyclical stock, those that have done well during the downturn but will lose ground as the lockdowns ease. We also talk about investing in overseas shares and getting started with this year’s ISA.

Also today, the unfolding story of Greensill Capital and Liberty Steel. Whilst news reports =unearth just how much David Cameron lobbied on behalf of Greensill, there’s also the ,more damaging question of alleged fake invoicing unearthed by Greensill’s administrator. Is this fraud?

And it’s a significant day in the easing of lockdowns, with shops, gyms and hairdressers able to re-open. But just how exposed are businesses. We take a look at some ONS figures released on Friday that show how close to the wind some companies are flying.

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Friday 9th April 2021

Will you be heading out to eat out at a restaurant on Monday? Under the easing of lockdown rules you can from Monday, but you have to sit outside. And it’s going to be cold and wet on Monday. No matter people will put on a warm coat and embrace the opportunity, according to to Patrick Hooykaas, Managing Director at TheFork, the restaurant booking app formally known as Bookatable. So, what will have changed and how will restaurants cope as social distancing rules will continue to restrict their capacity and revenue.

Also today, Phil Dobbie talks through how Joe Biden plans to fund his $2.25 trillion infrastructure program. He wants to raise corporate tax rates and get other countries to do the same. Is there an appetite for a global approach to taxation. Perhaps there is if it means we can ensure digital behemoths pay their fair share. But isn’t it the sort of control we didn’t want to see from the EU. Are we really prepared to take it from the US?

Plus, would you ever put ‘Stay at Home Mum’ or ‘Stay at Home Dad’ on your CV?

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Thursday 8th April 2021

The UK is a bit player when it comes to steel production. China, for example, produces at least 150 times more than us. But if we want to be assured of quality, and if we want to ensure that it is produced with the least environmental damage, then we need to produce for our domestic needs. That’s the view of David Bailey, professor of Business Economics at Birmingham Business School and a senior fellow at King’s College’s UK in a Changing Europe. Does that mean the government does need to bail out Liberty Steel and accept that the industry will need subsidising, possibly forever?

Also today, the hiccup in vaccine deployments as the Astra Zeneca vaccine is declared vaccine of last resort for the under thirties. COVID-19 cases flare up in Michigan. And Deliveroo cyclists have taken to the streets in protest as shares trade openly for the first time. 

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Wednesday 7th April 2021

Economies are already bouncing back from the worst of the COVID-19 crisis. Yesterday the IMF forecast that the UK economy would grow by 5.3% this year, helped by the fast vaccine rollout. The forecast for the US has also been upgraded, from 3.1 percent growth this year in a forecast last October forecast, to 5.1% now. These numbers are supported by improving jobs numbers and other economic indicators, yet central banks keep insisting that the recovery will take years and until then, interest rates will stay low and they will keep buying up government bonds. Today I talk to Patronus Partners CEO Paul Kavanagh about the role of central bonds in controlling bond prices (and yields), and how this is driving all other asset classes, including the value of shares. Paul says tis approach is a long from a free market but it is driving investment in risk assets that will help the government recover. How we manage the debt is a different issue, he says, so long as we don’t try and balance the books too quickly and incur the sort of devastation we saw during the Thatcher years.

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Tuesday 6th April 2021

Estate agency businesses are moving online and have been for many years. Yet, estate agents still occupy expensive real estate in many of our towns and cities. Today industry commentator Russel Quirk says those days are numbered. So ,what is the model for real estate sales moving forward?

Also, as Boris eases lockdowns in the UK, infection rates continue to rise in France, with a slow vaccination program across Europe and rising vaccine scepticism. Across the Atlantic the US economy seems to be going gangbusters because vaccines are rolling out quickly and the government is investing heavily in the recovery. Will we see a global two speed recovery? Forecasts today will tell us what the IMF thinks.

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Thursday 1st April 2021

Joe Biden has unleashed another couple of billion dollars of spending on the US economy, focusing largely on infrastructure. It’s aimed to create jobs for the middle class, and build growth from the middle out, not from the top down. Boris Johnson promised to level up the UK economy of course, and even spoke of a green new deal, but not of that made it into Rishi Sunak’s budget earlier in the year. Couldn’t we benefit with a green revolution, with Bidenesque sized government investment?

Meanwhile, what can we do to help the environment at an individual level. Environmental journalist Lucy Siegle joins me today and suggests we could start by looking at our pensions. Recent research has shown that 29 percent of us would change the companies their pension was investing in if they discovered how unsustainable they were. So, does that mean the rest of us are lazy and unconcerned? And hoiw many of us even know which companies are in our pension’s share portfolio?

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Wednesday 31st March 2021

Royal Mail announced the return of dividends yesterday and reaffirmed an expected operating profit of £700 million for the 2020-21 financial year. Sussanah Street, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, joins phil to talk about the potential for the business, with growth focused on its international business. So how will it cope with parcel competition in the local market.

Also today, Deliveroo list on the London Stock Exchange. Whatever happens I the first few hours of trade, there have to be concerns about the viability of the business in the long term. First, there’s the distinct possibility that they could face the same sort of court ruling as Uber at some point, but, more fundamentally, their Prospectus makes some questionable claims about the size of the contestable market for food delivery services.

In the US you can now use Bitcoin on Paypal. Is that a game changer. Phil says not. Imagine using it to buy a second hand jumper on eBay. How many decimal places will you type in as you try and transfer the money?

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Tuesday 30th March 2021

You can make some quick wins on your website to fix obstacles that might be stopping customers buying from you. But when you’ve been through the low hanging fruit, what do you do next? Do you go for a complete site rebuild to fix more fundamental issues? That can be expensive and there’s no guarantee you’ll see enough incremental business to warrant the expense. Today Dicken Doe, from Foolproof, talks through the importance of analysing data to understand customer behaviour and deliver a far more effective outcome for your business.

There’s also more on the block trade yesterday that saw $20 billion sold off in a fire-sale by Archegos Capital. We ask how can this have been allowed to happen, and who really loses from the experience?  Spoiler alert, ordinary shareholders.

Plus, Beth Rigby, riddled with irony. And the blockage in the Suez, does anyone know the financial impact of that little episode?

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Monday 29th March 2021

The FCA is worried that many new investors are gambling on shares for all the wrong reasons. Today on the podcast Rodney Hobson says he isn’t too concerned, it’ll reach a valuable lesson to those who lose out. A bigger concern, he says, is when the regulator fails to protect investors in managed funds, like Neil Woodford’s now defunct operation.

Also, Phil Dobbie asks whether we can expect a volatile week, after some sharp moves in US markets on Friday. There was Goldman Sach’s  $10.5 million block trade, and massive sell-offs in two media giants. One of those giants is the backer of Andrew Neil’s GB News.

And speaking of news, Australia’s Channel Nine News was off air in Sydney yesterday, because of a  cyberattack, they claim by Russia. The problem was, all their news software and content now sits in the cloud. Another channel that will be cloud driven – Andrew Neil’s GB News.

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Friday 26th March 2021

The Bank of England’s chief economist Andy Haldane famously said the UK economy will bounce back this year, like a coiled spring. There could be two reasons why he is wrong. First, vaccine nationalism continues, with the EU’s Ursula von der Leyen reiterating that Europe needs to play catch-up before exporting vaccines to the UK. Secondly, the expectation is that Britons will dip into their savings, which have increased during the lockdowns, to splash out once the shops reopen. But But finance expert Rachel Springall, from moneyfacts.co.uk, highlights some research that many of us have shifted behaviour and are much more likely to hang on to our savings. She joins Phil on the podcast this morning.

Also, a British company you probably haven’t heard of listed on the NASDAQ yesterday, with anet worth of $13 billion. Arrival makes electric vans and electric buses – or they will. They’ve reached that valuation without actually selling anything. Meanwhile Ed Miliband is challenging Boris Johnson to come up with a strategy for the adoption of electric cars, even though he doesn’t have one himself.

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