What’s up with these huge swings in the markets?

Well, (obviously) it’s currently the tariffs. Lately, traders approved of the temporary lifting of the most onerous tariffs on everybody but China. Then, they disliked the tariffs on the delicate chips and the computer assembly sector of the Chinese economy. Next, they applauded when those were lifted. In direct and nearly immediate response, they drove the markets up, down, and up again.

In the longer run, both traders and investors depend upon certainty. It’s much easier for us investors to stick to our long-term plan when we have a vision of what lies down the road than when the future is uncertain, murky, and scary. That’s when emotions begin to override our long-term plan in favor of reacting to the latest market moves and news bites.

Winston Churchill once remarked that democracy is the worst form of government… except for all the other ones. Long-term investing may appear the worst way to navigate the markets as well… except for all the others.

Manufacturers are in the same position, reporting that all the uncertainty has frozen them in place, not knowing what their products will cost overseas to foreign buyers, not knowing what their internal costs will be (and, therefore, prices will be) if/when the tariffs are assessed.

And so, the bobbing and weaving of the markets in reaction to the Administration’s waffling on tariffs continues, with no clear end in sight. It’s an increasingly heated rat race with which most of us should prudently and simply steer clear.

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