The Zach Foust Show

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Five things Trump said this week that are worth sitting with, an AI development that genuinely rattled me, and our full reaction to the FlyDubai story.

We open with the numbers because the numbers do not spin. The August Monthly Treasury Statement is out and we are running a $167 billion deficit in a single month. Tariff revenue comes in fourth on the receipts sheet, below Miscellaneous. You would have to multiply our tariff income by twelve just to break even for one month. Meanwhile the fiscal year 2026 deficit is already at $1.966 trillion. So when the president promises $5,000 checks for every adult citizen if Republicans win the midterms, understand what that actually costs. $1.68 trillion. And understand what he said would happen if they lose. A 1929 disaster. Those are his words.

Then we played the rest. The bayer aspirin ramble and the 386 milligram pill that does not exist. The line about letting them take out Los Angeles, letting them take out San Diego, because it is a small price to pay. The admission that he loves the inflation. And the war that is ending immediately after the election except it might go a little longer and there will be attacks after the midterms. I want you to hear all of it in one sitting, because individually these get buried under the next headline, and together they tell a very different story.

Sean also walked me through something I had not seen. People are using AI to reverse engineer the code of two separate video games and stitch them together. Spider Man swinging through Arkham Gotham. If AI can deconstruct a game engine that fast, the obvious next question is what else it can deconstruct, and nobody seems to be talking about that.

And we closed on FlyDubai with James Li's breakdown. An Omani pilot who is not permitted to fly into Israel. A plane that dropped 18,000 feet in under a minute with no injuries, no luggage out of the bins, and a full glass of water sitting upright on a tray table. A passenger in a blood soaked shirt standing in front of Netanyahu hours later saying he learned to level out a nosedive from watching a TV show. I am not telling you what happened. I am telling you the story we are being handed leaves you with more questions at the end than you had at the beginning.

I ended this one talking about mourning. I think a lot of Americans have figured out the American dream is dead, and nobody ever gave them a funeral. No closure, no ceremony, just a phone and a few people around you who see it too. If that is where you are at, I want you to know that caring that much is the most patriotic thing about you.

Take care of yourself first so you can take care of the people to your left and your right.

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I got James Li on the stream and we covered a lot of ground. He is one of the best independent journalists working right now, 5149 on every platform, and he does it as a one man operation with no producers, no editors, and no researchers.

We opened on Israel and the 9/11 overlap, the Greater Israel Project, the cyber bill that just merged the American and Israeli military intelligence apparatus, and why James thinks this is the last administration that gets to offer unconditional support before the public shift makes it politically impossible.

Then we got into the FlyDubai story, and James walked through it piece by piece. An Omani national in the cockpit on a flight to Tel Aviv, a country he is not supposed to be able to fly into. A CNN aviation expert saying on air that the numbers suggest the plane should have come apart. A passenger telling Netanyahu he learned to pull a plane out of a nosedive from watching Air Crash Investigation. No injuries on a full flight, no oxygen masks deployed, and a cup of water still sitting upright on a tray table. James is not telling you what happened. He is telling you what does not add up, and that is the part worth paying attention to.

From there we went to AI. The flock cameras, the data centers steamrolling city council votes, the people getting misidentified and jailed with no due process and no recourse. And James made a point that stuck with me. The AI whistleblowers who went on prime time saying this technology might end humanity got red carpet treatment. Real whistleblowers get threatened, sued, and destroyed. That contrast tells you what kind of story you are actually being sold.

We also compared notes on what broke us. For me it was the Federal Reserve. For James it was the 2016 primary and then Covid. We talked about trust in government sitting around 14%, whether there was ever a point we should have been trusting these institutions, and whether the people still have a real shot at taking this back.

And he ended where I always end up too. Get the money out of politics. Ban the foreign lobbies, ban the corporate lobbies, publicly fund the campaigns, and let them fight it out in the court of public opinion. There is no counterargument to that one. There just isn't.

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Have you heard much about Epstein lately? Not really. Plenty about the war, plenty about inflation, plenty about everything else. So today I am giving you my 15 reasons why we need to keep talking about it, and I am laying every one of them out with sourcing on the corruption map.

We start with the come up that makes no sense. Teaching math and physics at the elite Dalton School with no degree. Hired at Bear Stearns with no degree, worked up to limited partner, then resigned in 1981 over a fraudulent loan and passing IPO information to a girlfriend. Five years later he is running the finances of a billionaire. Then there is the Zorro Trust claiming an $85 million Powerball ticket in Oklahoma in 2008, with a notarized power of attorney naming Epstein as trustee, and a Google AI overview that flatly says he did not win the lottery with no source attached.

From there we walk through Robert Kraft's Palm Beach County case and the attorney he shared with Epstein. The national security excuse that got breezed past when the files were first delayed. The 17 year friendship people want to wave away. Robert Maxwell's work for the Rothschilds on the Macmillan takeover, his death off the Canary Islands, and the funeral in Jerusalem attended by a prime minister, a president, and multiple Mossad heads. The New Mexico probe that reopened and then went quiet. The whistleblower email about Zorro Ranch. JPMorgan's settlement with victims and Jes Staley's lifetime ban and £1.1 million fine in the UK, not here.

And we close on Kevin Warsh. Federal Reserve chairman. On the board from 2006 through 2011, now running the whole thing. His wife is Jane Lauder. Her father is Ron Lauder, who helped fund Netanyahu into power and who attended a Christmas party in Saint Barts hosted by Jeffrey Epstein.

Some crimes get tolerated because stopping them would destabilize the system they thrive on. So my question is simple. What else is being allowed right now because it is cheaper than stopping it?

If I missed something, put it in the comments with sourcing. This works better when we build it together.

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Three things on the table today. The bond market that keeps threatening to crack, a brand new Senate housing bill that would put $50,000 in first time homebuyers pockets, and a proposed 90 day ban on American diesel exports that would ripple across the entire globe.

We start with a Bloomberg clip where an analyst says 7% rates are historically normal and consumers just do not want to buy this market. Both statements are technically true and completely disconnected from reality. In June 2001 we had these same rates. The national debt was $5.8 trillion, the median home was $150,900, and 38% of median income went toward shelter. Today the debt is $40.2 trillion, the median home is $406,000, and 45% of median income goes toward shelter. Same rate, completely different world.

Then the amortization math that should make you sick. On a median home today, your payment is $3,168 and only $297 of that goes toward principal. The rest goes to the bank. Over 30 years that $406,000 home costs you just under a million dollars.

We break down the Homeownership Promise Act from Ron Wyden and Jeff Merkley. A 5 to 1 federal match up to $50,000 for first time buyers, limited to homes under the local median price. I read the actual bill, explain what it could do for builder incentives, and where I think it falls short.

And we close on diesel. The White House is reportedly preparing a 90 day export ban ahead of the midterms. Russia just extended its own. Together that is 30% of global seaborne diesel exports off the table. Mr. Global breaks down exactly why that would drop US prices briefly and then break supply chains worldwide. Meanwhile Ukraine has now hit three Russian refineries in a week, which is why I do not think diesel is done going up.

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Will home prices drop in 2027? Will mortgage rates come down? Is a crash coming? I am a full time real estate agent and I am going to give you the honest answers, including some advice you will not hear from any other realtor.

We start by grading our 2026 predictions. We called max 2% price compression, mortgage rates not hitting 4%, and investors buying around 30% of homes. We are sitting at about 5.9 out of 6 on those. Then we get into where we actually are right now. 96% of mayors surveyed say their residents are very or extremely concerned about affordability. The qualifying income for a median home just hit $108,288. Housing inventory is at 1.14 million, but nearly half of that is new construction, not panic selling, which is why I still do not believe a crash is coming.

I also react to a viral realtor clip telling people to buy now and refinance later, and explain exactly why marry the home and date the rate is some of the worst advice given during Covid and why people who bought between 2022 and 2025 are feeling the most pressure right now.

Then I give you three tips. The best location to buy, the best mortgage program to use, and the best type of home to buy for the money. And I close with the thing no realtor will say out loud. Right now the median three bedroom rent in America is about $2,000 a month, while the interest alone on a median priced home is $2,271. Not the payment. The interest. If you can live with family or bunk with friends while you save, do it, and do not let anyone make you feel silly about it.

Plus my three predictions for 2027. Energy and bonds being the story of the year, the resilient consumer finally breaking, and where rents and rates actually head next.

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Delaware has a problem and it comes down to three things. Housing, jobs, and retirement. Today I break all three down and then sit with Michael Smith, Democrat candidate for Delaware State Treasurer, to ask him what he actually plans to do about it.

Here is where we are. Bloomberg just named Delaware the rising number one retirement state in the country and nobody told the people who already live here. Sussex County population is up 17% since 2020, growing five times faster than the US average. The median homebuyer in southern Delaware is now 54.5 years old. Since 2019 the median household income in Kent County went up about 19.6% while the median home price went up 96%. That math does not work for anybody trying to start a life here.

On jobs, Delaware sits at 4.8% unemployment while the national number is 4.1%. Before Covid we were around 3.7%, better than the country. Now we are worse. And a huge share of the jobs Delawareans hold are not even sourced in Delaware, they are remote positions based in Philly, DC, Baltimore, or Jersey. The money comes in, but the economic value is not being built here.

Then there is education. We are ninth in the nation in per pupil spending at about $22,000 per student, and 45th in educational outcomes. Top 20% in spend, bottom 10% in results. That is money flowing out with nothing coming back.

Retirees are moving in because Delaware is cheap compared to Jersey and New York, our property taxes are among the lowest five in the nation, and the beaches are right there. Meanwhile the traffic has doubled since 1999, the primary care shortage is real, and nobody is building the infrastructure to keep up.

Michael Smith is an economist. If he is going to be in charge of our money, I want to know what he is actually going to do with it. Stick around for the full interview.

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Gas is at $4.44 nationally, up nearly 50% since this war started in February. Diesel just hit a record $6.40, up 77 cents in the first two weeks of September alone. In California diesel is already at $8 a gallon. Sean, Joe and I break down exactly why this is happening and why I do not think it comes back down anytime soon.

Here is what most coverage misses. Crude oil is not the story. Diesel is. Diesel is the single most universal tangible input in the American economy, it moves your groceries, your packages, your construction materials, everything. And the reason diesel and gasoline are climbing faster than crude is that refined fuel is explosive, so almost nobody is lining up to haul it through the Strait of Hormuz right now. Freight captain crews have gone up eight times in cost because of the risk. Ukraine keeps hitting Russian refineries. Exxon just shut down its Joliet plant entirely after a power outage. Refining capacity is disappearing while demand keeps going.

Then there is the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. We peaked at 726 million barrels in 2009. We were at 415 million as recently as March. We are now around 285 million, the lowest level since 1983. Under the Energy Policy and Conservation Act there is a hard legal floor at 252.4 million barrels, below which the president cannot do routine drawdowns without declaring a national energy emergency. We are getting very close to that number.

And we close on China. Their crude imports collapsed when this war began, which quietly kept global prices from spiking even harder. Now those imports are ticking back up. Whether that is pure economics or something more strategic, the result is the same. Supply comes off an already tight market.

If you have not filled your heating oil tank for winter, I would do it now.

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The buyers are gone. Not just in housing, not just in cars, everywhere, across every major purchase in this country and honestly across the globe. Sean, Joe and I dig into why, and it all comes back to the same place.

We start with the August jobs report. 162,000 jobs created, way above expectations, with June and July both revised upward by a combined 55,000 jobs. Sounds great, right? Except the stock market fell and bond yields went up the second the number dropped. That tells you the market does not believe it. We walk through Kevin Walsh's Jackson Hole speech, his strange opening story, and why he used the word hike four times in his first minute and a half. We also break down the actual composition of those new jobs, mostly food service, bartending, and teaching, not exactly the export driven growth that builds a stronger economy. And we ask the obvious question nobody wants to say out loud. What if these numbers are being managed right before the midterms?

Then we get into why buying and borrowing have both gotten more expensive at the same time. The 30 year Treasury is sitting at 5.24%, up from 4.63% before the war. The ten year is at 4.79%, up from 3.96% pre war. That is what is actually driving your mortgage rate and your car payment, not just inflation on the sticker price.

We close with an update on Iran, who has rejected the latest peace proposal and is still demanding the exact same terms they started with, $300 billion, an end to sanctions, and peace for their allies. They are playing the long game, and the Fed is walking straight into a catch 22 it cannot solve. Something cracks, then we print, then it inflates. Again.

I am not a financial advisor, I am a real estate agent, but here is what I personally hold. 25% crypto, mostly Bitcoin. 50% gold and silver as my insurance policy against the dollar. 25% in the S&P 500. Hold an asset or get left behind.

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Will housing ever become affordable? Sean, Joe and I dig into what it would actually take for home prices to come down, and why the answer is a lot more complicated than everyone screaming crash on TikTok wants it to be.

We start with the number that should stop you cold. The qualifying income for a starter home in America right now is $103,584 a year. That is just to get your foot in the door. Then we play a clip of Trump saying he does not want housing prices to come down because he wants to protect the wealth of homeowners who already own. The same guy who campaigned on driving prices down is now on camera saying the opposite.

I walk through the three rules that have preceded every housing crash in history. Low demand and high supply, which we do not have right now. Jobs failing first, which has not happened yet. And money printing as the government's inevitable response once something does crack. We debunk a viral bank teller story with zero sourcing, we look at real delinquency data instead of vibes, and we dig into the silver tsunami theory, whether boomers dying off over the next decade will actually flood the market with affordable supply, or whether it just leaves empty McMansions in retirement towns nobody under 40 wants to live in.

Bottom line, I do not think this ends in a crash. I think it ends in more printing, prices grinding back up, and wages continuing to lose the race. The real problem was never housing. It is money printing and wages that never caught up.

We are now shooting twice a week, Tuesdays and Fridays, live here on YouTube, and available on Spotify and Apple right after.

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Episode 101. Sean is back on the boards, healthy and happy, and we are digging into the trickery happening over at the Treasury and the impossible position the Federal Reserve has put itself in.

Here is the setup. The July Treasury statement shows $334 billion came in and $766 billion went out. That is more than double. A $432 billion deficit in a single month. Scott Bessent's answer is that we will grow our way out of it, mostly through tariff revenue. So we ran the math. Our GDP grew 2.9% in 2023 while our debt grew 7.2%. In 2024 it was 2.8% growth against 6.9% debt. In 2025, 2.1% against 6.1%. Our debt is growing two to three times faster than our economy. Monkey no believe that.

Then it gets worse. Nobody wants our long term debt, so the Treasury announced it is doubling its own bond buybacks and may tap nearly a trillion dollars from the Treasury General Account to do it. That is manufactured demand. We are buying our own debt to suppress our own yields. One analyst called it the world's largest interest only adjustable rate mortgage, and the adjustment dates come every 28 days.

Meanwhile Kevin Warsh is sitting at the Fed with two mandates and no way to hit both. Raise rates and you kill the job market that already has 5.6% unemployment for college grads under 30. Cut rates and inflation, already at 3.7% on PCE, runs away from you. If they hike they lose the long end. If they cut they lose the long end. That is the whole game.

I close with Trump saying out loud that the ultimate intervention is our military, Smotrich openly laying out the expansion plan, and the Las Vegas bio lab charges quietly getting dropped. Own an asset or get left behind.

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