Who was Procrustes, well in Greek mythology, he was a nasty and cruel fellow, owner of a small estate in Corydalus in Atica on the way between Athens and Eleusis, where his puzzle secret rites were carry out.

Procrustes has a strange and unusual way of kindness and sociability. He abducted travellers and give them a generous dinner, then invite them to spend a night in a rather special bed. By the way he had a 100% fitting bed – to put it simply he wanted the bed to fit the traveller to perfection.

So those who were tall had their legs chopped off with a sharp hatchet; and those who were too were stretched." By the way his name was said to be Damastes,or polyphemon,but his nickname happened to be Procrustes, which means "The Stretcher".

Well according to the saying Diamond cuts diamond, in the sense of justice, Procrustes was executed by his own petard. One of the traveller happened to be the brave and fearless Theseus. After the usual Dinner, Theseus made Procrustes lie in his own bed and decapitated him. Theseus followed Hercules's way of paying back in kind.

In a more frightening interpretation (according to the Appollodorus's Bibliotheca) Procrustes owned two beds .One small, one large .He made short victims lie in large bed and tall victims in short one.

Yes every episode of the duty life is about Procrustes bed sort of – since the world today doesn't resemble the past and has become more complex, hence more unpredictable. We human tend favour the visible, the tangible, the well narrated and we scorn the abstract. So we human are facing limits of knowledge, the unseen, the unknown. Furthermore we seem unaware of backward fitting just like a tailor who takes great pride in delivering the perfectly fitting suit – but do so by surgically altering the body of his customers

Well what is the big take away idea of the metaphor of the Procrustean bed? It is not putting something in the wrong box – but mostly that inverse operation of changing the wrong variable, here the person rather than the bed- just as mistaken a mistake a bear for a stone rather than a stone for a bear well you end up in his stomac. By the way every failure of what we call wisdom can be reduced to the procrustean bed of situation.

Above all the most successful people out there are the ones who accepts the presence of randomness rather always cause and effect and most importantly know how to work around inherent unpredictability and even exploit it.

Have you ever ask yourself why are so few serial entrepreneurs – business people who start successful companies one after the other? Obviously we have Mark Cuban, Sir Richard Branson, the late Steve Jobs. But they account for a tiny fraction of serial entrepreneurs. Yes serial entrepreneur account for a tiny fraction of one percent who starts a successful company.

Well the sound question that comes to mind is, do they go o retirement after their first Blockbuster success- just as Paul Allen, the cofounder of Microsoft?

Not necessarily. Real and true Business people possess too much to get up and go than lying hours on the beach. Is it because they cannot let go and want to coddle and pamper their companies until they leave at their moment of choice for retirement? Surely not .Most founders sell their shares within ten years .By the way these self-starter who are blessed with talent, skills, good personal network and a solid reputation would be equipped to found many businesses .But why do they stop?

Well they didn't stop – they failed at succeeding. Only one and unique answer explain their survivability. Luck and Luck plays a bigger role than skills does.

No businessperson likes to hear or even listen to this. I myself is one of them. When I first heard about the illusion of skill, my natural reaction "my success was a coincidence". Yes at first glance it sounds offensive especially when you worked hard to get there.

We'll let take a look at business success, how much of it comes down to luck and how much is the fruit of hard work and distinct skills. This probe question is usually and easily confusing and misunderstood by the general public. Of course depending of area here Mediocirstan little is archived without skills and talent and from the same token; nothing is bring to fruition without hard due diligent work. But this is not the case when dealing with extremistan. The most important problem out there with experts is The Procrustean bed (by the way the next Episode The bed of Procrustes).

Why because we human simultaneously inhabit two worlds – namely the mediocristan and the extremistan- just as the turkey is feed for thousand by the butcher and the turkey believe that the butcher love it with increasing statistical confident until two days before thanks giving, the turkey is surprised and become a dead meat.my whole idea here is not to be turkey but be the butcher. The Turkey is someone facing unpredictability than it thinks and in the meantime it mistake absence of evidence for evidence of absence. Example: A subscription company or a paid memberships company, a person on salary. A person who is mildly ill who takes continuously medication (Drug).

Unfortunately, neither skills nor struggles, toil, and hardship are the key criteria of success. They are necessary but not sufficient.Kapish there is a simple and easy test to detect and discover if his/her success is highly link to skills and hard work. It is if the person enjoy the success for long time compare to the less qualify. But this is not the case of a lot of company founders – unless many would after the first successful company, they will launch a second, a third a fourth start-up. Meanwhile this is not the case.

Now let us jump on CEO of large company .Do they play a large role in the success of their company? Well researchers determined a set of attributes that characterize a strong CEO such as management procedure, strategic brilliance in the past and many others. The researchers measure the relationship between these behavioural traits and the company increase of value during the reign of the given Leader. So here is the result- if you randomly compare two companies, 60% of stronger CEO lead the stronger company and 40 % of weaker CEO lead the stronger company. This is only 10% more than no relationship. Here is what the Nobel prize winner in economic Daniel Kahneman said to the issue "it is hard to imagine that people enthusiastically buy books by business leaders who are, on average slightly better than the norm". Seemingly warren Buffett thinks nothing of CEO glorification and idealization. Here is what he said "(…….) a good managerial record (…..) is far more a function of what business boat you get into than it is of how effectively you row", hence skills and hard are necessary but not sufficient.

In the meantime in certain areas (Extremistan) skills play no role at all.in his book thinking fast and slow Daniel Kahneman describes his visit to an asset management company. To brief him they send him the spread showing the performance of each investment adviser over the past 8 years. From this a ranking was assign to each: number 1, 2, 3 and so on in descending order. Professor Kahneman quickly calculated the relationship between the years rankings. Between year 1 year and year 2, between year 1 and year 3, year 1 and year 4, year 1 and year 5 up until year 7 and year 8.The result was staggering and pure coincidence or if you want pure luck-namely sometimes the advisor was at the top and sometimes at the bottom .So if an advisor had a good year, this was neither bolstered by previous years nor carried the subsequent

A good friend of mine Fat John decided to lose the extra pound weigh he had be dragging around. He resolved taking up various sport. However, bodybuilders look looked broad and cyclist? Oh so bottom heavy.

Swimmer, though appealed to him with their well-built, streamlined bodies. Fat john decided to sign up at his local swimming pool and to train hard three times a week.

After a short while he realised that he failed short to an illusion. The world class swimmers don't have outstanding bodies because of their extensive taining.Rather they are good swimmers, because of their physiques. How their body is designed is a matter of natural selection than result of their activities.And from the same token – female to Model advertise cosmetics and thus, many female consumers believe that, these products make you beautiful .But it is not the cosmetics that make these women model like. The answer is simple and straight, the model are born attractive and for only this reason they are candidate for cosmetics advertising. After all, She is not a beautiful woman whose ankle or arm is praised, but she whose general appearance makes you forget to admire her single attributes.

As with the swimmers bodies, beauty is a factor for natural selection not result of activities.

Whenever we confuse natural factors with results, we fall prey of what the best risk real world expert alive today Nassim Taleb call the swimmer body illusion.

Without this, close to half of advertising campaign may not work. But this bias goes beyond that.

For example Harvard has the reputation of being a top university. Many world class successful people have studied there .But does this mean Harvard is a Top school? We don't know for sure.

May be the school is terrible and simply enrol by recruiting the best and brightest around.

So all over the world, MBA Schools entice by attracting potential candidates with statistics regarding future income. This simple calculation is supposed to show that horrendously high tuition fees pay for themselves after a short period of time. Many prospective students' fall for this approach.Becareful I am not implying that – those statistics are fake, but still their statements must not be swallowed wholesale. Why?

Because the income of those pursue MBA are not different from those who do not. So the Gap income between these groups stems from multitude reasons that have nothing to do with the MBA degree itself. So this another swimmer body illusion at work. So if your intend is to study, do it for other reasons than a bigger pay cheque.

Lastly when I ask happy people about the secret of their happiness. I often hear the answer: "You have to see the glass half full rather half empty". Well these people fail to realise that they were born happy and now tend to see positive in everything.

By the way people do not realise that cheerfulness – according to many studies such as Harvard's Professor Dan Gilbert is largely a personal trait that remain constant throughout life. World renowned Social scientists Lykken and Telligent starkly "trying to be happier is futile as trying to be taller" yes this pure self-illusion and the swimmer's body illusion in action.

Well Where, then, lies the mistake, since all men crave the happy life? It is that they regard the means for producing happiness as happiness itself, and, while seeking happiness, they are really fleeing from it. For although the sum and substance of the happy life is unalloyed freedom from care, and though the secret of such freedom is

the spirit that will never consent to come under the jurisdiction of things external to ourselves. 2. This is the touchstone of such a spirit;

All what I am suggesting here is that our mood is not created by our consciousness, our mood is created by a shallow impulse of the environment- we don't necessary notice. So if you are too emotional change the environment by choosing the one that relax and soother you than trying to be happy.

When these optimist write self-help books, the illusion can become treacherous. That is why for billions of books of people, these advice are unlikely to help. Why?

Well because just as the bankrupt people who have the same traits, and attributes as the successful ones don't write books. Similarly the unhappy don't write self-help books about their failure, these facts remains hidden. And even if you convince people that- they are more useful tricks in failure ones than in successful ones,After all the dark side of the moon is difficult to be seen.

So be wary when you are encourage to strive for certain things – like good looks, a long life, a higher income or happiness. Before you jump, be honest to yourself and have a sense of integrity of what you see in the mirror. For more insights please visit www.optionalityprofits.com/p/tres-bien

More than two thousand years ago, the Roman orator, belletrist, thinker,

Stoic, politician, and (usually) virtuous gentleman, Marcus Tullius Cicero, presented the following story. One Diagoras, a nonbeliever in the gods, was shown painted tablets bearing the portraits of some worshippers

who prayed, then survived a subsequent shipwreck. The implication

was that praying protects you from drowning. Diagoras asked,

"Where were the pictures of those who prayed, then drowned?"

This is in a nutshell decision making by subtraction, removing or what not to do- hence via negative

Michelangelo was asked by the pope "Tell me the secret of your genius. How have you created the statue of David, the masterpiece of all the masterpieces" Michelangelo's answer "my Lord its simple .I removed everything that is not David "

Let us be frank and honest – we don't know with certainty what make us successful or happy. But we know with certainty what make us unsuccessful or unhappy. This simple realisation as it is, is potent and very fundamental.

Negative knowledge (meaning what not to do) trumps positive knowledge (meaning what to do).

Being semi sekeptical and empirical means thinking more clearly and acting shrewdly by adopting Michelangelo's method: by not focusing on David instead, focus on everything that is not David and chisel it away. In our case filter out all the errors and take advantage of unintended side applications and better thinking will take place.

The Greeks, Romans and medieval thinkers had a term for this practical approach: Via Negativa.the negative path, the path to renunciation, of exclusion, of reduction.

Theologians put it this way we cannot say what God is but we can only say what god is not,- hence this explain why religion is mostly about prohibitions/interdicts .By the way 8 out of the 10 commandments are about what not to do.

Psychologist distinguish between acts on of commission (what we do) and acts on omission (what we do not do).These two practical approaches are economically the same (just as 10 Dollars not lost are 10 dollars earn).But they are not treated equally in our minds.

So do not do is more rigorous and robust empirically. How do you live long? By avoiding death. Yet most people do not realize that success consist mainly in avoiding losses, not trying to generate profits.

Yes via negative is counter-intuitive and beyond that countercultural, going against conventional wisdom. But just look around you see how it is only used by the outliers, the pros, the magnificent- here is what Charlie Munger the legendary Business Partner of Warren Buffett say "We have no system for estimating the correct value of all businesses. We put almost all in "too hard" pile and sift through a few easy ones". The direct implication is that Strategy matter far less than FILTERING and in addition Warren Buffett about himself and his partner Charlie Munger:"Charlie and I have not learn to solve difficult business problems.What we have learned is to avoid them." Welcome to via negative.

By the way in Chess, Grand Chess master focus on avoiding errors- whereas rookies try to win.

I think from here you have a hint to see why out there, bookstore are full of positive advice book and far fewer on failure. Does that the bell in your head.

Lastly here is the famous quote of the French Novelist Antoine de st exupery" Perfection is achieved, not when there is nothing more to add, but when there is nothing left to take away."

Download the free counter-intuitive Natural productivity Process by clicking here:www.optionalityprofits.com/p/tres-bien

A Safari brochure promises: "The last chance to see a Silver Back gorilla before the species is extinct". What do you do? Well if you have never cared about seeing one before today, why fly all the way long to Serengeti "Tanzania" to do now? It is irrational. This is fear of regret at work.

Let say you have long dreamed of owning a house, in Hampton Middlesex London. Now only a handful of properties with lake views are left.

So seven remain, then all of sudden three and now only one. It's your last chance. Your adrenaline pomp up combine with the thought racing in your head, and you end up surrending by given in and purchase the property at an unbelievable exorbitant price. The fear of regret tricked you into thinking this was the last time offer. After all the sale of property is not going to stop at any time soon. This is the fear of regret at work again

The fear regret is the feeling of having made a wrong decision and this is one the best weapon great dealmakers and advertisers use to get people act.

How do you overcome the fear of regret? Well

1 Avoid sometimes be evidence base thinking approach and be more absence of evidence base by bringing necessary counterfactuals,- simulate not to see what will happen, but what may happen. By the way one single small observation can disprove a statement while millions can hardly confirm it.Hence disconfirmation is more rigorous and robust than confirmation.

2 Have maximum exposure of options, then you benefit from the unpredictable, randomness-uncertainty.

Thank you for tuning in and in the meantime apply these insights in your daily life and share it with your love one and friends and subscribe to my youtube channel and Download your Free Natural Counter-intuitive Productivity Process at https://www.optionalityprofits.com/p/tres-bien

Chauffeur knowledge

Take a look at the following story borrow from Charli munger,Business partner of Warren Buffett ,one of the world best investor alive today: In 1918 Max plank received the Nobel prize in physics – after went on a tour in Germany in order to lecture. Wherever he was invited, he gave the same lecture on new quantum mechanics. Over time his driver grew up to know it by heart just like a child recognising intuitively a cat. So he hinted by saying "It has to be very boring for giving the same speech each time, Professor Plank. How about I do it for you in Munich? You in the front row and you wear my chauffeur's cap.That will give us both a little bite of variety." Since the idea was surprising and funny- Plank liked, so that evening the chauffeur held a long lecture on quantum mechanics In front of a distinguish audience. At the end of the lecture a distinguish professor asked a question. The driver uttered: "Never I would have thought that a member from such an advanced city as Munich would ask such a simple question! My chauffeur will answer it."

You can see this among CEOs running large companies. The is viewed to possess certain attributes VIPAND Star quality such as risk taking, hard work, reliability, dedication etc. Too often Shareholders, journalists seem to believe that showmanship gives better result. Which most of the time obviously is not the case.

According to Charlie Munger, they are two types of knowledge.

The first type is Real knowledge, coming from people who has committed a great amount of time over the years and effort to understand the intricacies, complexity of the given Topic.

The chauffeur knowledge are those who have learned to put on a show and are merely acting. They espouse knowledge which is not their own and lack substance.

Now a day, with the rise of complexity it has become more difficult to separate True Knowledge from chauffeur knowledge.

So how do you guard yourself against the chauffeur knowledge, warren Buffett recommend the following sentence.

Circle of competence: namely to say what lies in the circle of what you understand intuitively.

One of best piece of advice of Charlie Munger is "you have to stay within what I call circle of competence .you have to know what you understand and what you don't understand. It is not terribly how big the circle is.But it is terribly important to know where the perimeter is" .Munger continue "So you have to figure out what your own aptitudes are. If you play games where other people have aptitudes you don't have, you are going to lose. And that is closed to certain as any prediction that you can make. You have to figure out where you have got the edge and you have got to play within your circle of competence."

The message here is clear the showmanship chauffeur knowledge can be chiselled by recognising that ,true experts recognise the limits of their competence of what they know and what they don't know.If they find themselves outside their inner competence – the remain quiet or immediately say "they don't know". From chauffeur you hear every attempt except this one.

If you like this episode,please share it with your freinds and love ones - in the meantime download your free Counter intuitive Natural productivity Process to increase and speed up your productivity by 50% a week at www.optionalityprofits.com/p/tres-bien thank you for tuning in and see you in the next episode.

Why no pain, no gain should set alarm bells ringing

A few years ago, I was on vacation in Corsica and fell sick. The symptoms were new to me, and the pain was growing by the day .Eventually I decided to seek help in the local clinic. A young doctor, began to inspect me, probing my stomach, gripping my shoulders and knees and then poking each vertebra. I started to suspect that he had no idea on what my problem was, but I was not really sure, so I endured the strange examination. To signal its end, he pulled out his notebook and said. "Antibiotics. Take one tablet three times a day. It will get worse before it gets better." Glad that I now have a treatment I dragged myself back in my hotel room with the prescription in hand.

The pain grew from bad to worse and beyond worse to reach agony - just as the doctor had predicted. The doctor must have known what was wrong with me after all. But when the pain had not subsided for three days, I called him." Increase the dose to five time a day. It's going to hurt for a while more", he said. After two more days of agony, I finally called the international air ambulance The Swiss doctor diagnosed appendicitis and operated on me immediately. "Why did you wait so long?" he asked me after the surgery.

I replied him "it all happened as the doctor said, so I trusted him"

"Ah you fell victim to the it will-get-worse-before-it-gets-better fallacy too. The Corsican Doctor had no idea. Probably just the same type of stand – in you find in all tourist places in high season"

Let me give you a second illustration.

Let's take another example a CEO is at his wits end. Sales are in the toilet, the salespeople are unmotivated, and the marketing campaign has sunk without letting any trace on his path. So in his desperation he hires a consultant. For £ 5000 a day, the expert analyses the company and comes back with his findings. "Your sale department has no vision, and your brand is not positioned clearly, it's a tricky situation. I can fix it for you but not overnight. The measures will require sensitivity and most likely, sales will fall further before things improve." The CEO hire the consultant. A year later sales fall, and the same thing happen the next year. Again and again- the consultant stresses that the company's progress corresponds closely to his prediction .as sales continues their slump in the third year, the CEO fires the expert consultant.

A mere smokescreen, "the it will get worse before it gets better Fallacy" is the variant of the so called confirmation bias. If the problem perseveres/ continues to worsen, the prediction is confirmed. If the situation improve unexpectedly, the customer is happy and the expert can attribute it to his prowess. Either way he wins.

Well how do you help yourself? Well two things to be followed here.

• If you hear from someone "it will get worse before it gets better ", you should hear alarm bell ringing."
• But beware of second order thinking by paying attention within the short of period of time of the trial – to see if what he has proposed has a limited downside (loss or pain) and the gain are large and unlimited

In the meantime realising that, they are situations where things dip and then improve. For example a career change requires times and often incorporates loss of pay. But all these we can see quickly if the measures are working. Yes the milestones are clear and verifiable. Look to these rather than to the heavens.

Please keep in mind that most people out there are merely selling prospective and therefore, prone to provide no tangible added value, hence are generally dealing with the future .

If you like this article,please subscribe to here https://www.optionalityprofits.com/p/tres-bien

Is the value in the worth, or in the number?

Hindsight Bias

Take recent economic crisis of 2007- economist painted a rosy clear picture of coming years ahead of us, more importantly with firm conviction; since they were the experts.

However just twelve months after, the was a financial crash. When asked about the monstrous incident – the same economists gave countless of reasons such as: Greed, malfeasance of bankers, the incompetence of regulators – corrupt rating agencies and so forth. So we are fool by more epiphenomena and in retrospect the occurrence of the imploded market seem painfully obvious. This hindsight bias at work. The focus is wrong, even if the logic is comforting.

Another example, if a CEO become very successful due to fortunate circumstance- he will be looking through the review mirror – with the firm belief that he looking straight ahead (forward) and will quickly make the inference from specific given attributes. He became very powerful. He end up writing a bestseller about his prowess. The focus is wrong, even if the logic is comforting.

The hindsight bias is the tendency to look in retrospect with firm conviction of looking straight ahead .In short mistaken the past for the future or if you like hindsight as foresight.

And as direct consequence of hindsight bias we become overconfident in the sense where- we believe have the right knowledge to be able to predict the future.so this give us the illusion of certainty ,hence more prone to take uncalculated risk that lead more likely to disasters and blows up.

By the way hindsight is good in the sense where it may give us a good recollection of the past- in addition very helpful in a world that is stable and that doesn't change.

But today, we live in a world that change rapidly and more complex and therefore more prone to big errors – in case we tend to smooth out the volatity,errors,mistakes,the unknown of the system by making it predictable.

Well how do you overcome Hindsight bias?

Here are three big ideas

1 Avoid at all cost tunnelling

2 Learn to distinguish the sensational from the empirical- meaning to say read good books and great scientific articles not the newspaper and Magazines- by the way I don't mean to recommend you to purchase every bestseller. Why? Because: I will repeat the following until I am hoarse: it is contagion that determines the fate of a book and scientific articles, not its validity.

3 Always make sure the because as response to the why is based on empirical evidence than anecdotes and stories- by using the counterfactual approach.Note:I am not saying that using that narrative is irrelevant- as matter of fact story is good to convey the right message. The main point is: I am not saying here that there is no information in books and great scientific articles. There is plenty of information. The problem — the central issue — is that the needle comes in an increasingly larger haystack.

As matter of fact since 2005 the world renown professional statistician John Ioannidis computed and proved that more 80% of epidemiological study on computer fail to replicate in real life. Yet these observational studies get reported in the media and in some scientific journals.. (Thankfully, they're not accepted by the Food and Drug Administration). Now we are in 2016 and this number has being swelling close to 90%.You see

Well the question to be answered is How to detect the worthy books and scientific journals? Well we provide rule of thumbs and heuristics here in optionalityprofits .

If you like this episode,please subscribe here at optionalityprofits and get the Free Video and PDF download of the counter intuitive natural productivity process.Yes this is the one my best clients and I have used and are still using to achieve our Big goals.

Lastly please share this content with your freinds and love ones on Facebook,Twiter,Pinterest,tumblr.buzzfeed and many other social media outlets.

Thank you very much,I write this not for the many, but for you; each of us is enough of an audience for the other. You are magnificent.

Jerome

Health club for Rats

How to capitalize and benefit from the silence evidence

In my early twenties and still read the newspaper,

and thought that steadily reading the newspapers was something useful to me, I came across an article discussing the increasing threat of the Russ Mafia in the United States.

The article explained their toughness and brutality as a result of their being hardened by their Gulag experiences.

The Gulag was a network of labor camps in Eastern Russia, precisely in Siberia where Criminals and dissidents were routinely deported. Sending people to Siberia

was one of the purification methods initially used by the czarist regimes and later continued and perfected by the Soviets. Many deportees did not Survive these labor camps

Hardened by the Gulag? As cause of the Russian toughness and brutality Sound to me imperfect and inadequate. So let me debunk or if you want disprove this unsound argument and misconception cosmetic wrapping.

Let us consider the following thought experiment will give the intuition. Assume that you're able to find a large, assorted population of rats: fat, thin, sickly, strong, well-proportioned,

et cetera. (You can easily get them from the kitchens of fancy California restaurants.) With these thousands of rats, you build a heterogeneous cohort meaning a mix , one that is well representative of the general Californian rat population. You bring them to my laboratory. We subject the rats to increasingly higher levels of radiation (since this is supposed

to be a thought experiment, I am told that there is no cruelty in the process). At every level of radiation, those that are naturally stronger (and this is the key) will survive; the dead will drop out of your sample. We will progressively have a stronger and stronger collection of rats. Note the following

central and vital fact: every single rat, including the strong ones, will be weaker after the radiation than before.Just as we human start to feel the degradation of our health when the temperature goes above average- which is 70degree Celsius (be careful this is regardless whether we are strong or not)

An observer endowed with analytical abilities, who probably got excellent grades In law school, would be led to believe that treatment in my laboratory is an excellent health-club replacement, and one that could be generalized to all mammals (think of the potential commercial success).

His logic would run as follows: Hey, these rats are stronger than the rest of the rat population. What do they seem to have in common?

Not many people will have the slightly temptation to go look at the dead rats. This is the silent evident at work. Yes the cemetery of dead rats who are also strong as the ones still alive -next we pull the following trick In the US Today newspaper: we let these surviving rats loose in California and inform the chief rodent correspondent of the newsworthy disruption in the pecking order in the California rat population. He will write a lengthy (and analytical) article on the social dynamics of California rats that includes the following passage:

"Those rats are now bullies in the rat population. They literally run the show. This bias causes the survivor to be an unqualified witness of the Process. Unsettling? The fact that you survived is a condition that may

Weaken your interpretation of the properties of the survival, including the Shallow notion of "cause. "show. Strengthened by their experience in the laboratory of the reclusive

(but friendly) VC and entrepreneur Jerome Ngassa.

Let say you launch a new program and you have 70.000 people who attend the online course for the next 6 months. You are bound to have survivor winners, and guess what: if you are here talking about it and giving testimonies, you are likely to be that particular one (notice the "condition":

you survived to talk about it). So we can no longer naively compute odds without considering that the condition that we are in existence imposes restrictions on the process that led us here.

What I am saying is you will retain elements that seem to confirm your thesis and you will forget what I call silent evidence. And this absence of silent evidence is what prevent us to really understand the Causality in history.

Once again, I am not dismissing the idea of risk taking, I am involved in it myself. I am only critical of the encouragement of uninformed risk taking.

1-Lessons big take away

All what I am saying is that we should be careful on things on which we can make inference and on things on which we can't. Dig in the cemetery of silent evidence.

2-This is the reason why; we human we inhabit simultaneously in two worlds-namely the mediocistan and the extremistan

3-It isn't what you know that makes knowledgeable and rigorous; it is in the type of mistakes that you don't make hence warren Buffett. How do you live long? By avoiding death.

Get your free counter intuitive natural productivity process by clicking here:Download Free Your Counter intuitive Natural Productivity Process

Well ,please go ahead and follow the above gemstones.