Theory of Thing Investment Podcast

Firmus pulled its float. It had been pitched as the biggest Australian IPO since Telstra: A$11 a share, a A$7.1bn raise and a A$43.7bn valuation. James and Heath unpack why the market gave it a firm no:

• brokers reporting little client interest
• a thin prospectus with no clear plan for funding A$50–70bn of capex
• a large slice of the register free to sell on day one
• GPU depreciation math that didn’t add up

Heath then runs the market report. The S&P 500 slipped after the FT reported OpenAI’s revenue may be smaller than first thought. Fed Governor Waller backed one more hike. Long-end Treasury yields eased, and Heath thinks they look toppy. Central banks bought another 39 tonnes of gold in September, and oil is holding in a range.

James closes with the SmallCaps headlines: Renascor, Lake Resources, Antimony Resources, Iltani, Dalaroo, Cyclopharm, xReality and more.

00:00 Intro

00:52 Firmus pulled: what went wrong

04:53 The bull and bear case

05:45 The GPU depreciation problem

08:24 MGH trading halt and why James doesn’t like it

11:41 Market report: S&P 500, OpenAI revenue, the Fed

14:37 Bond yields and the case for duration

17:22 Gold and central bank buying

18:30 Oil, Iran and shipping costs

20:14 SmallCaps headlines

23:40 Wrap

General information only, not personal advice.

Theory of Thing, powered by SmallCaps. Hosted by James Whelan (SmallCaps) and Heath Moss (HLM Investments).

General advice only, if at all. Please seek your own advice or drop us a line for more information.

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Just James and Heath this week, and plenty to get through. Ten-year Treasury yields hit their highest level since 2002 before easing back, as PMIs and GDP data point to a genuinely strong global economy rather than just an energy-driven inflation scare. Heath walks through why that's a double-edged sword for markets — good for earnings, bad for the rate outlook — with tonight's US non-farm payrolls print shaping up as the next big catalyst.

Gold's sitting at a real technical and fundamental crossroads: pulled back to around the $4,200 level where it originally broke out, with real rates decoupling from inflation expectations the key thing to watch. Heath still backs the structural case even as the strong US dollar remains a headwind.

Elsewhere: oil bounced on China suspending October fuel exports, reports suggest the US and allies now control somewhere between 80–94% of pre-war Strait of Hormuz oil flow, Micron delivered a stellar beat-and-raise with memory supply tight into 2028, and locally the RBA hiked rates again amid a political slanging match over government spending. Plus a look at Firmus's $5 billion IPO — set to be Australia's largest listing since 1997 — and the usual SmallCaps roundup: Terra Metals, Flagship Minerals, Industrial Minerals, LTR Pharma, and trending names Litchfield Minerals, Lake Resources, Cobalt Blue Holdings, Sky Metals and Impact Minerals.

James also previews a huge run of conferences coming up — the Australian Gold Conference, the MicroCaps Conference in Melbourne, and IMARC — so if you're attending any of them, come say hello.

GOLD Conference Tickets: Bitly | bit.ly/4iFDxqZ

Theory of Thing is powered by SmallCaps.

General advice only, if at all. Please seek your own advice or drop us a line for more information.

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Grand final eve, ten-year yields at levels not seen since 2007, and gold's just had its worst week in a while — James Whelan and Heath Moss break down a huge week of macro with no guest to slow them down.

Heath makes the case for Meta as a buy off the back of Muse, its new agentic AI assistant — arguing it's the first genuine threat to Google Search in years, backed by Meta's 3.6 billion users' worth of purchasing data. On the flip side, Oracle tumbled after issuing a force majeure notice on its New Mexico data centre project (developed with Blue Owl Capital), raising fresh questions about how exposed the AI infrastructure build-out really is to project and private-credit risk.

Also covered: the bond curve flattening as 2s, 10s and 30s all push higher on hot US PMI and retail sales data; oil's whipsaw on stalled-then-maybe-not Iran talks; gold pulling back to around $4,290–4,320/oz as real rates bite; and the usual SmallCaps roundup — Axel REE, Zimi, Elixinol Wellness, Viking Mines, ClearVue, plus trending names Alma Metals, Iltani Resources, Lake Resources and Resolution Minerals.

And with the AFL Grand Final at the MCG tomorrow, Heath goes against the grain — tipping Brisbane by four to six goals for the three-peat, with Will Ashcroft his pick for a repeat Norm Smith.

*Theory of Thing is powered by SmallCaps.*

General advice only, if at all. Please seek your own advice or drop us a line for more information.

Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/the-bip-show.

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For the first time in about three years, the Fed hiked instead of cut — and gold barely moved. James Whelan and Heath Moss break down why: yields easing off overnight after the Bank of England paused gilt sales, oil sliding even as Iran refuses to reopen the Strait of Hormuz until Trump and Netanyahu are out of office, diesel trading like oil is $150 a barrel, and copper bouncing back on a weaker US dollar.

Then the main event: Kerry Stevenson, Founder and CEO of Gold Events and the woman behind the Australian Gold Conference (AGC), joins for a deep dive into currency debasement, central bank gold buying (289 tonnes in Q2 alone, per World Gold Council data), why she thinks the bearish case for gold has effectively disappeared, and the psychology of gold buyers who "pile in" the moment the price runs. Kerry also lays out what's on stage at AGC26 — 13–15 October, Crown Towers Sydney — including Rick Rule, John Forwood, Jordan Elieso and Alex Scanlon, and why she believes education, not hot tips, is what actually protects investors.

Plus: SmallCaps standouts including Resolution Minerals, Viking Mines, Prospect Resources and Mount Ridley Mines, nine upcoming ASX IPOs including Glencore's local listing, and AFL/NRL finals picks to see you through the weekend.

*Theory of Thing is powered by SmallCaps.*

General advice only, if at all. Please seek your own advice or drop us a line for more information.

Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/the-bip-show.

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Live from Resources Rising Stars on the Gold Coast, James runs through a huge list of company conversations from the floor — gold plays including Saturn Metals, Great Boulder, Great Southern and Gateway Mining, lithium exposure via PMET's James Bay project in Quebec, high-purity alumina producer Advanced Engineered Materials, and tin-tungsten-silver story Sky Metals. Plus takeaways from keynote speaker Charlie Aitken on how small the resources sector still is as a share of global indices, and a cycle-clock check-in with Line Selection Group's Hedley Widdup. Heath Moss joins from Adelaide for the market wrap — US equities sitting on prior highs with September seasonality weighing, yields pushing toward 2025 highs ahead of a critical CPI print, copper at fresh records near $6.90/lb, gold holding above $4,400/oz, and why Heath's steering clients toward globally-exposed Australian names over banks and discretionary retail. Plus AFL and NRL finals tips to close it out.

General advice only, if at all. Please seek your own advice or drop us a line for more information.

Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/the-bip-show.

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Nvidia posted a $96.2 billion quarter — up 106% year-on-year, data centre revenue up 117% — and beat the Street on every line, yet the stock still wobbled in after-hours trade before rallying into the close. James and Heath ask whether beat-and-raise even moves the needle anymore for the world's biggest stock, and dig into the RAM purchasing commitments that could be the real story buried in the report. Plus: Scott Bessent's Treasury flags using the TGA to fund bond buybacks, yields ease, the US dollar weakens and gold rips to nearly $4,700 an ounce on central bank buying — with silver looking primed to follow. A look at this week's small caps worth watching (Rapid Critical Metals, Barton Gold, Redstone Resources and more), a Sydney stockbroker raided by the AFP, and the AFL finals kick off with Bulldogs–Collingwood and Melbourne–Carlton.

General advice only, if at all. Please seek your own advice or drop us a line for more information.

Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/the-bip-show.

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Wall Street wobbles as 30-year Treasury yields punch above 5.3%, and hyperscalers flood the bond market with nearly $200bn of debt this year alone. James and Heath break down why the long end of the curve is starting to look shaky, what Scott Bessent's buyback plan actually does, and why Nvidia's $500bn GPU-backed lending scheme has more than a whiff of 2008 about it. Wealth advisor Murdoch Gatti (The Rate of Change) joins to talk fund manager sentiment on energy security, behind-the-meter gas powering data centres, and why South America — not Australia — is set to be the next copper growth engine. Plus: small caps flying under the radar this week (Titan Minerals, EV Resources, Barton Gold, Greenvale Energy and more), oil creeping back toward $88 on Iran tensions, and the boys unpack the Sydney Swans' five-player suspension ahead of finals.

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#InvestmentPodcast #ASX #Markets #SmallCaps #Bonds

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In this episode of the Theory of Thing Investment Podcast: Powered by Small Caps, host James Whelan sits down with Golden Globe Resources (ASX: GGR) CEO Colin McMillan to discuss the company's phase-one progress, high-grade rock chip results (4.2% Cu, 0.5g/t Au) following the rediscovery of the historic Burns Spur Copper Mine, upcoming exploration at the Alma project near Mount Morgan, and promising proof-of-concept drilling at Neela Creek in the Lachlan Fold Belt.

Later, Heath Moss from HLM Investments joins the show to break down macro market trends, including the S&P 500 and ASX reaching record highs, Palantir's strong earnings validating AI demand, and major technical breakouts in copper and gold. The episode wraps up with sector commentary on Australian retail earnings, global oil dynamics, and weekly sports picks.

General advice only, if at all. Please seek your own advice or drop us a line for more information.

Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/the-bip-show.

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Noosa MIning Wrap Up!! Copper Explorers Webinar!! In this episode, James Whelan and Heath Moss discuss recent market trends, mining conferences, and the impact of AI and tech stocks on the economy. They share insights on small caps, resource investments, and the US market outlook, providing valuable tips for investors.

key topics

• Market trends post-mining conference
• Impact of AI on tech stocks
• Small cap investment opportunities
• US market reaction to earnings reports
• Resource sector outlook and mining stocks

guest name

Heath Moss

titles

• Market Trends and Mining Insights with Heath Moss
• AI and Tech Stocks: What Investors Need to Know

Sound Bites

• "People are still finding it tough to go."
• "Market reacts to data, not forecasts."
• "AI is making a real difference in revenue."

Chapters

00:00

Introduction and Market Overview

47:12:15

Heath Moss's Market and Weather Update

211:05:41

Highlights from Noosa Mining Conference

3666:39:09

Sector Sentiment and Exploration Activity

5277:45:58

Key Takeaways from Mining Presentations

6749:59:25

Investment Summit and Fund Performance

9138:52:49

Bond Market and Yield Movements

10749:59:31

Australian Productivity and US Comparisons

12472:12:59

Small Cap Managers and Resource Exposure

13861:06:23

Networking and Industry Events

15416:39:47

Top Holdings and Portfolio Insights

17083:19:56

Copper Webinar and Sector Focus

18722:13:16

US Market Movements and Earnings

20777:46:36

Federal Reserve and Market Confidence

24194:26:36

Microsoft Earnings and AI Impact

25833:19:56

Hyperscalers and Cloud Investment

27694:26:36

US Tech Giants and Market Divergence

29638:53:16

AI Infrastructure and Investment Outlook

31722:13:16

Tech Guidance and Market Concerns

34055:33:16

Cloud Demand and Open Source Models

35333:19:56

Bullish Sector Outlook and Future Trends

37111:06:40

Footy Tips and Market Sentiment

38638:53:20

Closing Remarks and Next Steps

General advice only, if at all. Please seek your own advice or drop us a line for more information.

Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/the-bip-show.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

 summary

In this episode, James Whelan and Heath Moss discuss recent market trends, innovative investments in electric vehicles, critical minerals, and upcoming mining conferences, providing valuable insights for investors and industry enthusiasts.

 key topics

Janus Electric's US expansion and battery truck conversions

Fast-tracking mining permits with Fast 41

Lithium project drilling in Brazil by Solus

Upcoming Noosa Mining Conference and BHP exploration

Market outlook: gold, copper, and tech stocks

General advice only, if at all. Please seek your own advice or drop us a line for more information.

Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/the-bip-show.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.