Michael Gayed is the founder of the Lead Lag Report and manages multiple funds and ETFs. He joined Phil Rosen for a deep-dive on the Japan carry trade, the risks to investors, how to hedge against outlier events, what comes next for the AI trade and more.

This episode is sponsored by Amberdata: https://Amberdata.io

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Timestamps:

0:00 - Intro0:26 - Japanese carry trade

3:25 - Japan leverage, rates

5:18 - Oil’s currency impact

7:08 - Carry trade backstop

7:52 - Portfolio positioning

10:15 - Oil price outlook

11:25 - Amberdata

13:12 - Japan policy errors

16:17 - Global equities impact

17:40 - AI trade risks

20:16 - Lagged productivity gains

22:11 - AI’s political impact

23:59 - Hyperscaler capex

25:54 - Groupthink

27:02 - Consensus bullishness

28:30 - Michael’s work 

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