Threadguy Live

Jack Surveillor is a solo trader who dropped out of college, interned at two funds, and just had the best two weeks of his life calling the bottoms on PUMP, Lighter and CARDS. He breaks down why he only trades the smallest market that can hold his size, how he sizes a position up to 70% of his book with zero leverage, and the strict drawdown rule that keeps him in the game. Plus the Robinhood interview that tipped him off to the Lighter bottom, why he ignores every AI and quantum scare, and the full bull case for his three biggest positions.

Tayvano, one of crypto's most trusted security researchers, joins at 7am her time, the morning after AI-assisted researchers found two remote code execution bugs in PHP, the language behind most of the web. She breaks down how bad it actually is, the certificate authority whose private key turned out to be a joke, and why crypto may be better prepared for this than the rest of the internet. Also covered: the Railway breach, which coins she trusts most, her one worry about Bitcoin, how to tell real threats from Twitter panic, and the security upgrade most people still skip.

Thread makes the case that crypto, built in a dark forest of nonstop hacker attacks for 16 years, is better prepared for the AI hacking wave than the rest of the internet. He reads Dan Robinson's "Ethereum is a Dark Forest," explains why banks still win when they can reverse a hack (see Phil Ivey's $9.6M baccarat payback), breaks down Togi's $1M Moderna trade, and digs into why Zoomer humor only runs on absurdity.

Threadguy tells the story of Amaranth, the 2006 hedge fund that bet a third of its book on one natural gas trader, and how Ken Griffin turned its collapse into a billion dollars. Then the PHP exploit found with AI, what sneaker botting teaches about offense vs defense, why public trader beef is good for markets, and why crypto looks fine while the bear case plays out everywhere else.

Threadguy is officially back on the winning team. After a night of commencement speeches and More Money Than God, he lays out why the AI unwind hasn't dragged crypto down, the faked chart behind the greatest trade of Black Monday, and why reasoning by analogy is a waste of time. Plus the Kimchi phenomenon, why AI drug discovery is running out of lab monkeys, and Bloomberg's biggest crypto bear admitting the blockchain guys were right.

Threadguy is back from the long weekend and revisits Black Monday 1987 after the internet spent three days predicting a sequel. Then the $1M FedEx heist of PSA graded Pokemon cards, who is actually guarding the card vaults, why an old GPU is worth more than he paid for it, a three story gacha arcade in NYC, the lore behind the Onion Futures Act, and South Korea's fake food delivery apps.

Thread pulls an all nighter on AI slop Pokemon games and makes the case that AI video and gaming are just good. Then the Tesla demo where Elon made the Roadster fly and Thread somehow still lost money on the trade, plus the eat the rich momentum, Strategy getting dropped from MSCI, and the unpatched Erewhon method for meeting girls.

After Justin Drake's bunker mode post and OpenAI's math results sent crypto into a cryptography panic, Threadguy sits down with Mert, NEAR founder Illia Polosukhin and cryptographer ZK Dragon to find out how worried we should actually be. They cover how close AI really is to cracking the math, what quantum computers will actually be pointed at, how chains would respond if the worst case hit tomorrow, and who on Earth could even pull it off. Closes with the threat that should keep you up at night instead, and a debrief with Tulip King.

Based16z, the trader who farmed Hyperliquid full time before it became the most profitable airdrop ever, sits down with Threadguy for his first interview since 2024. They get into how he nearly fumbled the airdrop, what life changing money actually does to you, the Snapchat and Sydney Sweeney trades, and how much Twitter really moves markets. Closes on his Loot and Rob thesis, his relationship with money, and his advice for anyone young still looking for their thing.

Leaked Anthropic Q3 numbers, a hot CPI print and the CoreWeave debt panic send everything AI into a tailspin, and Threadguy watches it from 100% cash. He gets into what the slowdown really says about the frontier labs, why he's stuck trusting Flood, the Leopold wipeout at the open, and whether dividend stocks make any sense next to the 30 year. Closes on Bumble getting bought out and the app that quietly killed online dating.